Worldwide business trends create new leverage for voluntary benefits

The recent growth of interest in voluntary benefits has coincided with a decline in resources available to administer benefit programs. Fortunately, technology offers employers a solution to this resources dilemma in the form of portals, which allow employers to provide choice and access to voluntary benefits without concerns about increasing the workload for the benefits staff and without causing confusion among employees.     

The effects of abandonment options on operating leverage and investment timing

This paper examines how the presence of an abandonment option affects a firm's investment decision in general, and its operating leverage in particular. We show that the value of the abandonment option is a decreasing function of the firm's operating leverage. Upon the introduction of the abandonment option, the firm as such optimally lowers its operating leverage. We further show that there are direct and indirect effects of the abandonment option on the firm's optimal investment trigger, which act against each other. First, the ability to shut down production offers downside protection to the firm, thereby making the firm more eager to exercise the investment option. This is the negative direct effect that pushes down the investment trigger. Second, introducing the abandonment option to the firm induces the firm to lower its operating leverage, thereby making the firm more reluctant to exercise the investment option. This is the positive indirect effect that lifts up the investment trigger. We numerically verify that the overall effect of the abandonment option on the firm's optimal investment trigger is negative.     

高西庆谈创业投资

前不久,中国证监会副主席高西庆在清华大学发表了《新世纪中国创业投资》的演讲,现将演讲摘要如下:     

International business cycles and the relative price of investment goods

Abstract Is the relative price of investment goods a good proxy for investment specific technology? We model this relative price in a flexible price international economy with two fundamental shocks, namely, the total factor productivity (TFP) shock and the investment‐specific technology (IST) shock. We show that the one‐to‐one correspondence between the IST shock and the relative price of investment goods breaks down in an international economy because of the short‐run correlation between the terms of trade and the relative price of investment goods. The data congruent negative correlation between the investment rate and the relative price of investment goods thus does not necessarily reflect decline in investment frictions (rise in IST), as suggested by many studies. A calibration experiment with the US data demonstrates that such an inverse relation between rate of investment and the relative price of investment goods basically reflects the positive effect of TFP on the terms of trade for a broad range of economies where the home bias in consumption exceeds investment and there is a sizable adjustment cost of investment.     

Education, credentials, and immigrant earnings

Abstract.  Using 1981 to 2001 Census data, we study how the human capital of immigrants is rewarded in Canada. We distinguish between years of schooling and degrees obtained in order to estimate 'sheepskin' effects – the gain in earnings associated with receipt of a degree, controlling for years of schooling. We find that immigrant years of schooling and immigrant work experience accumulated before arrival is valued much less than Canadian experience of comparable natives. However, for immigrants the increase in earnings associated with completing educational programs is generally higher than that of comparable natives. We provide both signalling and human capital interpretations of this finding.     

Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence

The previous literature has largely overlooked the possible channels through which foreign direct investment (FDI) might influence business cycle synchronization. In this study we analyze the linkages that exist among FDI, trade and industrial dissimilarity in relation to business cycle co-movements using a panel data set taken from 77 pairs of developed countries. The error component three-stage least squares (EC3SLS) estimates from a simultaneous equations model with panel data are shown to be superior to the estimates obtained from single equation models or simultaneous equations models with cross-sectional data. Our results indicate that FDI serves as a channel of international business cycle transmission that is equally important as the channels of trade and monetary policy. On the contrary, industrial dissimilarity is identified as having an indirect impact on the business cycle correlation through trade and FDI. Furthermore, our findings suggest that in our sample FDI is of the horizontal type and tends to substitute for trade.     

Corporate tax reform and business investment: Empirical estimates for structures and equipment

New econometric investment equations, separating equipment from structures, are used to evaluate the impact of the 1986 tax reform law. The computations suggest that investment in equipment will be significantly reduced, largely as a consequence of the abolition of the investment tax credit. Despite longer tax lives, investment in structures may increase because of the reduction in corporate income tax rates.     

Employment instability,earnings and market structure

A model of incremental decision-making in local government is presented as an extention of that developed by davis et al. (1996) for US Congressional appropriation. This is then combined with joint supply and demand equation for local taxes and expenditure. An explicit Stone-Geary utility function derived when these fuctions are maximized subject to the supply and demand equations as constraints. Empitical results are then given for local authorities in England and Wales from 1974 to 1960. These results confirm a very important role for the bureauctic component within the overall tax-expenditure model.     

Accounting practices,earnings volatility,and earnings forecast: The case of the oil and gas producing companies

International Advances in Economic Research -     

王连洲谈风险创业投资法律环境

全国人大财经委《投资基金法》起草小组组长王连洲教授前不久在清华大学发表了演讲。演讲摘要如下。     

Post-crisis business investment in the euro area and the role of monetary policy

ABSTRACT

Business investment in the euro area strongly declined during the Global Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. It has not yet rebounded to its pre-crisis trend despite the very expansionary monetary policy measures of the ECB. We analyse the sluggish recovery in business investment in the euro area and the role of monetary policy in three steps. We investigate the main factors that have impeded business investment since the Global Financial Crisis. We empirically analyse how business investment has developed compared to typical patterns during other financial crises. Based on these results, we then discuss how effective monetary policy has been in stimulating business investment since the Global Financial Crisis. We conclude that business investment in the euro area has developed broadly in line with typical post-crisis patterns. Monetary policy significantly contributed to stabilize business investment at the beginning of the crises. In the aftermath of the crises, however, there seems to be little scope for monetary policy to further stimulate investment.     

Austrian persistence? Capital-based business cycle theory and the dynamics of investment spending

Survey data are used to investigate the very long spending lags estimated in neoclassical studies of investment expenditures. Neoclassical investment theory has trouble explaining the length of these lags. By recognizing the Austrian concept of the capital structure and applying it to the problem, the present paper explains the length of these lags as proceeding from interactions between types of capital. Austrian arguments stemming from Austrian business-cycle theory seem to be needed to explain these lags. JEL Code E3, E4, C1     

Consumption,income and earnings inequality in Britain

This paper presents an analysis of the trends in inequality across income, earnings and consumption in Britain since 1978. It documents the episodic nature of inequality growth over this period largely dominated by the inequality ‘boom’ in earnings inequality of the 1980s. It builds a consistent picture across these key measures of inequality to provide a coherent link between the microeconomic and macroeconomic analysis of the evolution of inequality.     

Bounded dividends, earnings and fundamental stock values

This paper applies a model of fundamental share prices based on a bounded dividends process, with earnings as the upper bound, to assess the deviations of actual prices for over- and under-valuations. The fundamental model extends the traditional present value of future dividends analysis to allow for the effect of an earnings-dividends trade-off effect. The simple fundamental model includes a closed form share price solution which may be calibrated to generate fundamental values from which to assess actual prices for over or under valuations. The properties of the model are explored with a simulation example. The empirical example is based on S&P data and the analysis provides evidence of persistent over-valuations since the late 1990’s. Expressed another way, the analysis highlights the role of factors, other than dividends and earnings in the determination of actual asset prices since the late 1990s.     

Employment tenure,job expectancy,and earnings profile in Japan

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between employment tenure and earnings profile in Japan. Since the Japanese labour market has recently experienced substantial changes, it is natural for the Japanese employment and compensation system to be influenced by such changes. In this study, the changes that have happened to the Japanese employment and compensation system in recent years have been considered empirically by focusing on the relationships between employment tenure and earnings profiles. To do this, a forward-looking variable called ‘expected job tenure (or job expectancy)’ is introduced and the effects of it on earnings profile.     

Migration,self-selection and earnings in Philippine rural communities

"Estimated returns to schooling investments can be misleading if migration causes significant shifts in population distribution across time. Data gathered in rural Philippine communities show that the more educated and experienced individuals are more likely to outmigrate, causing a sample selection bias in the estimation of wage equations. The observed wages were then lower than the conditional population mean of an entire cohort residing originally in the area. Controlling for self-selection, the wage returns to schooling and experience were higher, Finally, the sample selectivity variable accounts substantially for the difference in the wages of men and women."     

Exchange traded funds: leverage and liquidity

This paper examines the differences between leveraged and unleveraged Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), particularly for liquidity and volatility characteristics. The impact of leverage on intraday liquidity (spread and depth) is analysed in two periods – one of normal volatility and the other of abnormal/high volatility. There is a significant difference in spread and depth of leveraged and unleveraged ETFs in periods of both normal volatility and high volatility; however, this difference is more pronounced in higher volatility periods. In high volatility periods, liquidity typically diminishes in all ETFs, and this is even more so for the leveraged ETFs. When leveraged ETFs are segregated into multiples based on their power to replicate the underlying benchmark (i.e. multiples of ?3, ?2, ?1, 2, 3), the difference in spreads between normal and high volatility periods is typically larger. The double-leveraged ETF has the most significant difference between the positive and negative counter parts. However, the relationship in the progression of the multiples does not change linearly to correspond with the level of volatility. This may be due to the nonlinear relation between volume and volatility. We shed light on the magnification effect of financial leverage on microstructure of the ETFs.     

Keynes,investment, unemployment and expectations

In Keynes’ General Theory, investment determines effective demand, which determines unemployment and the labour market plays a negligible role. In New Keynesian models, labour market institutions determine the natural rate of unemployment and the speed at which unemployment adjusts to it. Investment is mostly ignored as a key variable behind the problem of high unemployment, despite a strong empirical association between investment and unemployment. We discuss the evolution of the ‘Keynesian’ model, and how in the process of domesticating the General Theory, the central relationship between unemployment and investment and the role of the state of confidence was bred out of the model. We then present some evidence of the centrality of investment and expectations to the long‐term evolution of unemployment in OECD countries. We also argue that recent results in finance, which find that individuals do not behave rationally and, moreover, that there may be no basis for rational calculation, provides support for Keynes’s notion that animal spirits play a central role in investment.