俄罗斯金融体系风险与跨境资本流动关系初探

近20年来,俄罗斯频繁发生跨境资本大规模流出,特别是2008年和2014年金融账户逆差均超千亿美元。该文回顾了俄罗斯这两次跨境资本大规模流出对其金融体系的影响,得出以下结论:跨境资本流动与金融体系风险存在着紧密的联系,跨境资本的大规模流出可能引发外汇市场风险、金融机构风险和股票市场风险上升;跨境资本流出对金融体系冲击的强弱与前期跨境资本流动形势有着紧密的联系;具有弹性的汇率制度可以减弱跨境资本流动对金融体系的冲击。     

跨境资本流动对银行风险的影响--基于风险累积效应和风险传染效应的视角

从风险累积效应和风险传染效应两个视角揭示跨境资本流动对银行风险的影响机理,并基于2000年第一季度至2020年第四季度时间序列数据进行经验检验,结果表明:跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均显著增加了银行风险,且三者对银行风险的影响均存在显著的风险累积效应;跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均通过影响金融机构人民币各项贷款余额同比增速、金融机构外币各项贷款余额同比增速、金融机构本外币各项贷款余额同比增速以及境内住户中长期消费贷款同比增速等信贷渠道显著提高银行风险承担水平,实现银行风险累积,从而增加银行风险;跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均显著提高了股票价格、房地产价格和实际汇率的波动水平,且跨境资本流动通过股票市场、房地产市场和汇率市场将波动水平传染至银行系统,增加了银行风险,股票市场、房地产市场和汇率市场更是强化了这种传染效应。     

中国资本项目开放政策调整的动因及内容

进入21世纪后,我国资本项目开放政策开始进入调整时期。从改革、开放政策实施初期阶段到20世纪末期为止,我国资本项目开放采取了鼓励资本流入和限制资本流出的开放策略。2001年以后,随着人民币升值压力的出现,资本项目开放政策开始进入调整阶段。这一调整具体表现为弱化资本流入激励机制和开放资本流出渠道。从原因来看,对外金融结构变化是引起资本项目开放政策调整的主要因素。     

影响中国国际资本流动的因素分析

本文结合中国资本流动的特点,加入证券市场价格及房地产价格水平两个变量实证分析了1982～2004年对我国国际资本流动的影响。结果表明对中国资本流动影响最显著的因素依次为利率、汇率、房地产价格指数和证券市场价格。     

跨境资本流动与企业投融资期限错配：兼论宏观审慎政策与资本管制措施的作用北大核心

随着中国有序融入世界经济体系，各渠道跨境资本流动规模显著提升。文章以2010～2022年中国A股上市企业为样本，系统地考察了跨境资本流动对企业投融资期限错配的影响。研究表明，跨境资本净流入规模增加会提升企业长期投资规模，从而加剧企业投融资期限错配，并且跨境资本直接投资对企业投融资期限错配的助推力度最大；跨境资本流出规模增加会缓解企业投融资期限错配。拓展研究表明，宏观审慎政策和资本管制措施能够缓解跨境资本流动对企业投融资期限错配的影响，且相比之下，资本管制措施的调控作用更强；管理者短视和财务柔性是跨境资本流动影响企业投融资期限错配的传导渠道；跨境资本流动对投融资期限错配的影响在低杠杆企业以及处于低竞争行业、全球供应链参与度高的地区和货币收缩期的企业更明显。     

论当今国际资本流动新格局

世界各国经济的增长必将对资本产生巨大的供给和需求，从而对资本的跨国流动产生强大的推力和拉力。资本在国际间流出流人不仅成为经济全球化进程的一个重要方面，而且增长的势头极为迅猛。据估计“全球可供竞争的”世界经济值[1]将从1995年的约4万亿美元增加到2000年的21万亿美元以上[2]。在目前资本跨国流动的大潮中，国际资本流动将显现出一些新的态势，形成新的格局。（－）发达国素在国际进本江动申的主导地位进一步加强发达国家在技术水平、市场潜力和经营环境上具有优势，这决定了日益追求质量的国际资本必然将其作为投资的首选之地…     

《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》下的资本监管进程及其影响

资本监管,可以说是三代巴塞尔协议始终如一的监管核心。不论是1988年第一代协议中的资本充足率规定,2001年提出2004年正式发布的第二代协}义中的第一支柱下分母被风险敏感化了的资本充足率新规,还是次贷危机后被广泛提及的第三代协议中对资本充足率的诸多修订,无不彰显了资本监管在银行风险监管中的核心地位。     

我国利用外资结构调整及风险控制

当前,我国国内与国际金融市场之间的资本流入与流出规模日趋扩大,资本流动的构成越来越复杂,影响范围和程度不断加深。同时,全球资本流动的主体结构、产品结构和地域结构正在发生重大调整,国际资本流动的整体波动性和风险性有所提高。因此,从国际资本流动构成角度看,我们正在迎来一个资本流动风险快速上升的时代。     

美联储加息、跨境资本流动风险与“双支柱”调控

在当前美联储加息周期冲击下，跨境资本流动风险和汇率波动不确定性明显增强，亟需加强政策监管。文章构建一个包含跨境资本流动审慎监管的动态随机一般均衡模型，系统研究美联储加息造成的跨境资本流动风险，并深入分析跨境资本流动的“双支柱”政策应对效果。结果显示：第一，美联储加息产生跨境资本流动风险，导致汇率和资产价格波动加剧，造成经济下行。第二，面对美联储加息，小幅跟进式加息能缓解产出波动，但不能缓解汇率、跨境资本和资产价格等波动，而大幅加息对经济和金融风险的负面影响都较大；“双支柱”政策相比加息政策有明显优势，既能抑制跨境资本流出，又能降低经济波动与金融风险。第三，社会福利损失分析表明，最优的双支柱政策组合是货币政策钉住产出、通胀和汇率波动，宏观审慎政策钉住跨境资本波动；随着宏观审慎政策力度增大，社会福利损失逐渐减小。     

12个跌停改不了大趋势

什么才是资本的正常流动？ 无论是原来人民币升值下单向国际资本流入，还是现在的国际资本流出，都不是正常的。     

东亚金融一体化:基于资本流动的实证分析

自1997年亚洲金融危机爆生后,为了避免对外国资金的过分依赖,防止危机的再次发生,东亚各国(地区)陆续开放本国资本账户,加快区域间的资本流动以推进东亚金融一体化。本文从资本流动的角度对东亚的金融一体化程度做出分析,研究发现东亚金融一体化程度并不高,但在金融危机之后有所加强,而其中东盟是东亚各子区域中金融一体化程度最高的区域。     

福建省农村人力资本对农村经济增长贡献的实证分析

中国是一个农业大国,保持农业的可持续发展,农村的安定,农民的稳步增收是中国经济快速发展的基础。本研究以福建省1997-2012年的数据进行实证分析,将人力资本投入作为一个要素引入到修改后的C-D生产函数中,研究农村人力资本在促进农村经济发展过程中的作用并对促进福建省的人力资本投入献策。通过双对数回归分析得出,人力资本存量的系数远高于物质资本投入的系数,说明在农村经济发展的过程中,人力资本具有重要的促进作用,劳动者素质的提高作用非常明显。     

THE IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA1

This study investigates the hypothesis that HIV/AIDS epidemic slows down the pace of economic growth. We examine 41 Sub‐Saharan African countries by using the empirical growth equation in an augmented Solow model in which health capital serves as a determinant of human capital. Econometric analysis is based on panel data and covers the period 1997‐2005. We control for a variety of factors possibly correlated with HIV prevalence that might also influence economic growth. As a key result we prove that the epidemic has a significant negative effect on the growth rate of per capita GDP in Sub‐Saharan Africa.     

The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in Japan

This study examines the effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in Japan. Based on a reading of the “business revitalization plan” submitted by banks requesting government funds, we identify four primary goals for the capital injection plan in Japan: (1) to increase the bank capital ratios; (2) to increase write-offs of non-performing loans; (3) to increase lending, in particular to small and medium enterprises, in order to avoid a “credit crunch”; (4) to encourage restructuring. Using a panel of individual bank data, we empirically estimate the effectiveness of the Japanese government policy of public fund injection in achieving the first three of these stated goals. Our empirical analysis reveals that, in general, the capital injections into the large internationally active banks were more effective than those into the smaller domestic banks in Japan. In addition, the second round capital injection, administered in 1998, was more effective than the first round, administered in 1997. The first capital injection in 1997 mostly served as a stop-gap measure to help the large international banks clear the 8% capital adequacy ratio (BIS ratio) required under the Basel Accord and did not make much contribution to the other policy objectives. The second round of capital injections in 1998 were more effective, boosting capital adequacy ratios for the domestic as well as international banks and supporting other policy objectives as well by stimulating banks to write off bad loans and increase domestic lending, in particular to small and medium enterprises.     

Capital Inflows Problem in Selected Asian Economies in the 1990s Revisited: The Role of Monetary Sterilization*

This paper develops a simple model to examine the reasons behind the capital inflow surges into selected Asian economies in the 1990s prior to the financial crisis of 1997–98. The analytical model shows that persistent uncovered interest differentials and consequent capital inflows may be a result of complete monetary sterilization, perfect capital mobility, sluggish response of interest rates to domestic monetary disequilibrium, or some combination of all three. Using the model as an organizing framework, the paper undertakes a series of related simple empirical tests of the dynamic links between international capital flows, the extent to which they are sterilized and uncovered interest rate differentials in the five crisis‐hit economies (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the period 1990:1–1997:5.     

Contagion or Real Linkages？ Some Evidence from China＇s Emerging Parallel Markets

This paper empirically tests the existence of contagion using data on China's five parallel markets with different entry barriers for foreign capital. Taking the 1997 stock market crash as our experiment and using data on A, B and H shares, red chips and American depository receipts, the present paper tests whether these China‐backed market returns respond differently to foreign shocks during the pre‐1997 and post‐1997 crash period. Evidence suggests that the contagion effects are stronger in markets with fewer entry barriers. An important implication of our findings is that countries vulnerable to contagion could be justified to impose some limits on capital flows.     

CORPORATE DEBT RESOLUTION AND THE ROLE OF FOREIGN CAPITAL IN THE POST‐CRISIS RESTRUCTURING OF THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA

The outbreak of the financial crisis in the Republic of Korea in 1997 exposed the structural weaknesses in the country's economy. Heated debates have failed to generate definitive answers on just what caused the financial crisis. Considering the importance of restructuring the corporate sector, this paper analyzed how the resolution of corporate debts was accomplished and examined the role of foreign capital in Korea's post‐crisis corporate restructuring. Special attention was given to the measures devised to recover nonperforming loans for the liquidation of corporate debts, to the foreign capital inflows through cross‐border M&As or privatization processes, and to the changes in control through corporate governance reforms. This paper concluded that the resolution of corporate debts has been satisfactory and successful and that foreign capital contributed significantly to effective corporate restructuring and debt resolution in the post‐crisis restructuring of Korea.     

新巴塞尔协议与城市商业银行的资本管理研究

新巴塞尔协议使资本充足率的计算更加灵活,资本与风险的联系更加紧密,它深刻影响着我国城市商业银行的资本管理。由于城市商业银行在资本构成、资本充足程度以及风险资产的结构与质量等方面与新协议的要求尚有差距,必须通过分析对比自身资本管理状况,提高资本充足率和风险管理水平,才能完善资本管理制度。     

企业无形资本的战略控制

文章首先从无形资本的内涵,以及管理控制、内部控制和战略控制的内涵挖掘出企业无形资本战略控制的内涵,即无形资本的战略控制是指无形资本作为企业的战略资源,具有内在的高不确定性和价值增值性。为了防范它的价值损伤风险,有效实现其价值增值,应由以企业董事会主导的,其他管理层参加的控制主体,对无形资本的价值投资、价值评估、价值实现等的全过程进行全面控制。其次从无形资本的价值评估、计量与报告、投资与管理对无形资本战略控制方式做了总结。最后分析了无形资本的控制效果,并指出了无形资本战略控制需要进～步研究的问题。