谁的"高储蓄"? 谁的"高投资"?

《人民日报》(海外版)日前刊登中国社科院金融所中国经济评价中心主任刘煜辉的文章说,人们在谈中国的储蓄率过高的时候,想当然的理解是居民的储蓄率过高.近年来,中国储蓄率在已有的高位上还在不断攀升,从1996年的37%上升到2005年的44%.     

20世纪90年代以来关于储蓄率研究的最新动态

从20世纪90年代以来,国际经济学界关于各国居民储蓄率和国民储蓄率的研究取得了重要进展。从储蓄率的基本决定因素来看,除了传统的人均收入、经济增长速度、利率等因素外,人口因素、预防性储蓄动机、宏观经济政策冲击、外部融资条件、贸易条件冲击和教育等因素对储蓄率的影响也得到了越来越深入的讨论。在对众多因素的讨论申,人口结构的转变和社会保障体系的完善程度(谨慎性储蓄动机)与储蓄率变化的关系一直是讨论的重点。由于储蓄率在国家和地区之间的分布并不均衡,因此很多研究文献都致力于解释个别国家储蓄率过高或过低的原因,或者比较国别间或地区间储蓄率的高低并探究其原因。最近几年来,中国的高储蓄现象得到了国际经济学界更多的关注。     

驳“美国经济衰退与中国储蓄率高有关”论调

近年来,美国不断指责中国有意低估人民币,称中国是导致全球金融危机的原因之一,最近又指出美国经济问题是因为中国的储蓄率过高而造成的。面对这种指责,文章对美国经济问题和中国高储蓄率分别进行了深层研究,明确了在两者之间并无实质关系。美国对中国储蓄率的指责是在寻找不存在的借口。     

中国发展战略学研究会经济战略专业委员会第七届学术年会召开

《人民日报》（海外版）日前刊登中国社科院金融所中国经济评价中心主任刘煜辉的文章说，人们在谈中国的储蓄率过高的时候，想当然的理解是居民的储蓄率过高。近年来，中国储蓄率在已有的高位上还在不断攀升，从1996年的37％上升到2005年的44％。其中，居民个人总储蓄仅占了国民总储蓄的30％-40％（近几年还在下降），而政府和企业总储蓄才是主要构成部分，     

高储蓄率背后的人口因素

人口因素是高储蓄率的重要原因与中国持续20多年的高速经济增长相伴相生的便是居高不下的储蓄率。高储蓄率也被众多学者认为是解释中国经济高速增长的一个重要原因。在这里,高储蓄率的作用在于:高储蓄率通过银行转化为高投资率,进而促进了大规模的生产能力的扩张,这种大规模投资带来了快速的资本形成,个人收入、储蓄和出口的增长,以     

解读我国的高储蓄——我国高储蓄率的原因及其对未来经济的影响

自改革开放以来,我国储蓄率一直居高不下,且持续上升,目前我国国民总储蓄率已经达到51．4％。本文从宏观经济学视角分析了我国高储蓄率对长期经济发展的影响和我国高储蓄率产生的原因;在此基础上,本文还进一步讨论我国目前这种高储蓄经济增长方式是否可持续的问题,最后就如何提高我国的消费需求,降低国民储蓄率提出了一些政策建议。     

警惕资本跨境移动风险

在亚洲国家中,日本是高储蓄率的国家之一.但在过去的三四十年里,日本最高的年份储蓄率也才40%,而中国目前已经达到了46%的高储蓄率.     

人口结构对居民储蓄率的影响

近年来中国居民储蓄率持续处于较高水平,本文将人口结构作为解释变量对高储蓄率现象进行解释,得出老年抚养系数对储蓄率具有正向关系,幼儿抚养系数对储蓄率具有负向关系,性别比对储蓄率影响不显著。     

中美两国储蓄率比较研究

近期关于储蓄率问题的讨论不绝于耳,甚至有美国政要将本轮经济危机的产生归因于我国的高储蓄率,对此,货币当局给予了坚决地澄清,周小川（2009）着重分析造成东亚和产油国较高储蓄率及美国低储蓄率的原因,并简要介绍中国储蓄率的变动情况及调整思路,最后提出调整储蓄率的可能选择。为了更好地说明这一问题,本文重新回顾了中美储蓄率的演变模式,希望能对这一问题给出可资借鉴的政策建议。     

日本储蓄率的变动及对中国的启示

日本曾经是世界储蓄率最高的国家之一,但从20世纪90年代开始,日本储蓄率发生了显著变化,呈下降趋势。日本储蓄率的变动不但会影响本国经济,还将影响世界经济。通过储蓄理论与最新经济数据分析得出日本储蓄率变动的最主要因素是:收入因素、人口因素及社会保障因素。研究日本储蓄率变动对中国调整高储蓄率有一些有益的启示。     

Housing prices and the high Chinese saving rate puzzle

China's over 25% aggregate household saving rate is one of the highest in the world. One popular view attributes the high saving rate to fast-rising housing prices in China. However, cross-sectional data do not show a significant relationship between housing prices and household saving rates. This article uses a simple consumption-saving model to explain why rising housing prices per se cannot explain China's high household saving rate. Although borrowing constraints and demographic changes can translate housing prices to the aggregate saving rate, quantitative simulations of our model using Chinese time-series data on household income, housing prices, and demographics indicate that rising mortgage costs can increase the aggregate saving rate by at most 2 to 4 percentage points in the best down-payment structure.     

Understanding High Saving Rate in China

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the Chinese saving rate based on the flow of funds data. It finds that the most widely adopted view of precautionary saving, which is regarded as the top reason for maintaining a high saving rate in China, is misleading because this conclusion is drawn from the household survey data. In fact, the household saving rate has declined dramatically since the mid‐1990s, as is observed from the flow of funds framework. The high national saving rate is attributed to the increasing shares of both government and corporation disposable incomes. Insufficient consumption demand is caused by the persistent decrease in percentage share of household to national disposable income. Government‐ directed income redistribution urgently needs to be improved to accelerate consumption, which in turn would make the Chinese economy less investment‐led and help to reduce the current account surplus. (Edited by Zhinan Zhang)     

Household Saving in China: The Keynesian Hypothesis,Life‐Cycle Hypothesis,and Precautionary Saving Theory

We test the explanatory powers of Keynesian theory, the life‐cycle hypothesis, and the precautionary saving theory on household saving in China, based on data from 1990 to 2009 from 31 provinces and autonomous regions. The results show that the precautionary saving motivation explains household saving better than Keynesian theory. The study results also highlight the impact of life expectancy on China's household saving.     

中国城镇居民储蓄率的影响因素:1997～2008——基于省级动态面板数据的实证研究

本文在生命周期-持久收入模型与预防性储蓄理论的框架内,使用1997～2008年的省级面板数据,通过动态系统广义矩的估计方法对中国城镇居民储蓄率的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究显示:持久收入的增加和储蓄惯性显著提高了城镇居民的储蓄率,并且以上两方面因素可以对1997～2008年间城镇居民储蓄率增幅中的大部分进行解释;但与传统的LC-PIH模型不同,少儿抚养比与中国城镇居民储蓄率之间存在着显著的正相关关系。此外,社会保障事业的发展通过降低不确定性,从而显著降低了城镇居民储蓄率,而就业的市场化程度却产生了与之相反的影响。但公共支出的结构、通货膨胀率以及实际利率没有对城镇居民储蓄率产生显著的影响。     

Chinese household saving and dependent children: Theory and evidence

This paper examines the impact of family size on household saving. We first study a theoretical life-cycle model that includes finite lifetimes and saving for retirement and in which parents care about the consumption by their dependent children. The model implies a negative relationship between the number of dependent children in the family and the household saving rate. Then, we test the model's implications using new survey data on household finances in China. We use the differential enforcement of the one-child policy across counties to address the possible endogeneity between household saving and fertility decisions in a two-stage least squares Tobit regression. We find that Chinese families with fewer dependent children have significantly higher saving rates. The data yields several additional insights on household saving patterns. Households with college-age children have lower saving rates, and households residing in urban areas have higher saving rates and a lower ratio of education expenditures to income. However, having an additional child reduces saving rates more for households in urban areas than in rural areas. Our regressions also indicate that saving rates vary with age and tend to be higher for households with more workers, higher education, better health, and more assets.     

Pension reform and saving in Britain

The paper examines the pension programme in Britain, focusingon reforms that have increased the fraction of the work-forceopting out of public provision and that have permitted individualsto choose their private pension provider. It also examines theissue of pension provision and household saving. The paper highlightsthe disparities in retirement saving behaviour across typesof pension provision and different households. The paper discussesthe policy issues of the adequacy of household saving, and theimpact of pension reform on household saving and the publicfinances.     

The expansion of higher education and household saving in China

We examine whether access to higher education impacts household saving rates. A 2-period model of household saving decisions demonstrates why increased college opportunities induce households with children to save more. We examine this theory using survey data from Chinese households during the unprecedented education expansion. Using estimates of the change in the expected probability of college attendance, we estimate the effect on household saving rates by comparing households before and after the reform. We find that a 10-percentage point increase in the probability of going to college raises the saving rate by 5.9 percentage points.     

Environmental awareness and household energy saving of Chinese residents: Unity of knowing and doing or easier said than done?

Household energy saving is important for the realization of emission peak, carbon neutrality, and energy security goals in China. However, no conclusion has been reached on whether public environmental awareness can promote household energy saving. There are two major defects in previous studies. One is that they focus on the public intention to save energy rather than the real behavior; the other is that the endogenous problem caused by the measurement bias of environmental awareness is ignored. Based on China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) database, this study selects the change in average monthly household electricity charge and electricity consumption as the proxy variables of energy saving, and introduces the public perception level of social security and government corruption as the instrumental variable of environmental awareness. It is found that improvement of environmental awareness has statistical significance for household energy saving and there is still a lot of room for improvement. This conclusion keeps valid in several robustness tests. Further analysis shows that improvement of environmental awareness is more likely to promote energy saving in rural households, male household heads, and young people; and that education and income have a joint moderating effect on the energy saving effect of environmental awareness.     

The assessment: household saving - issues in theory and policy

In this assessment we discuss the issues raised by the papersin this issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy in thecontext of economic models of household consumption and saving.We also provide a discussion of what we consider to be someimportant areas in the current debate surrounding theories andevidence regarding saving behaviour. We highlight the differencesthat arise from considering partial, as opposed to general,equilibrium models, and in looking at developed, as opposedto developing countries. We also discuss current policy issuesrelating both to the adequacy of household saving and to thedistribution of saving across households, or across asset types,as well as the need for more microdata on saving and asset holding.     

Concepts and Measures of Saving: Selected Issues for South Africa

South African household savings rates have been declining steadily over the last five decades, raising concerns that the population structurally under‐saves. Against the background of new saving‐enhancing policy initiatives, this paper asks to what extent the concern is founded, and whether the measurement of saving is really appropriate to guide economic policy. Comparing different macroeconomic concepts and measurements of saving, we show that the measure of saving in the national accounts (the residual between income and expenditure) understates the household savings rate compared to other measures. Specifically, an alternative measure from the balance sheets (the change in wealth) yields a significantly higher and non‐declining figure. While households have not been “putting aside” their incomes, they have nevertheless grown richer, driven largely by the appreciation of asset valuations. We also examine the impact of taking non‐financial saving and wealth into account, and conclude that household sector saving on the aggregate is significantly higher than the national accounts suggest. However, these adjusted measures are most relevant for the upper tail of the income and wealth distribution, raising important distributional concerns.