Currency Mismatching

This paper considers a firm domiciled in an emerging market, modeling its decision to denominate its debt in a combination of its domestic currency and a foreign currency, that is, the dollar. The objective is to determine those situations when the firm is motivated to engage in currency mismatching, that is, denominating a higher percentage of its debt in dollars than what is warranted by its dollar‐denominated sales. The following factors are shown to induce greater currency mismatching: speculative capital flows into the emerging market, reduced ability to price discriminate between domestic and foreign customers, increased exchange rate stability, and lower risk‐aversion. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

数字货币——关于货币未来形式的大胆设想

数字货币将作为一种无形货币为全球市场经济注入新的活力。因为数字货币具备一套完整的终端系统,所以,数字货币一旦产生和应用,将会以其诸多优点给人类社会带来可观效益,同时也会给社会的各个层面带来深度的冲击和影响。     

货币中的防伪技术

对货币中的防伪技术进行了系统的分类，并对其鉴别方法进行了探讨。     

浅谈重力式货架及其在银行发行库中的应用

介绍了重力式货架的基本原理、特点与选型情况，并与其它货架进行了比较分析，结合当前货币存储现状，提出了在人民银行发行库中应用重力式货架进行人民币仓储的设想.     

跨境贸易人民币结算政策对外汇储备的影响——基于进出口企业的结算选择博弈分析

运用博弈论的思想和方法,结合跨境贸易结算实际,构建了人民币升贬值预期下境内企业与境外交易对手结算货币选择的多目标博弈模型,并分析了企业的结算货币选择对外汇储备的影响.研究结果表明,企业对人民币预期和结算目的的多样化,使得博弈出现多种结果,从而跨境贸易结算引起的外汇储备变动不会向单一方向发展;但不同预期引导下的进出口结算货币的不对称选择会加剧外汇储备的波动.     

Currency news and international bond markets

We use a sample of 27 countries and 63 currency news announcements in an event study framework to examine the impact of currency news on international government bond markets. Our findings reveal a significant spillover of currency news into bond markets. Specifically, the evidence shows significant negative abnormal bond returns, whether measured in dollar terms or local currency terms, implying that currency news plays a role in changing the performance of international government bond markets. We also show that abnormal bond returns remain significantly negative even after controlling for macroeconomic variables. Our results are robust to using alternative risk model specifications, country-level data, and corporate bond data. Our evidence of the significant impact of currency news on bond markets provides essential insights to professional traders, policymakers, and academic researchers.     

Debt as the Basis of Currency

A bstract Even more than most nineteenth-century economists, Henry Dunning Macleod recognized the importance of trust in a properly functioning monetary system. Macleod developed a credit theory of money in which he argued that money originated as a debt claim against society. The value of money depends on the willingness of economic agents to accept it, no matter what material the money is made of. Macleod applied this theory to the evaluation of other systems in which money is not based on debt, showing the dangerous consequences that could arise from pursuing other theories of money creation to their logical conclusions.     

Currency boards, credibility and crises

The paper calls into question the proposition that currency boards are a solution in preventing currency crisis. On the basis of a “second generation” model, it shows that, in the presence of unemployment persistence, a currency board system can become vulnerable to a currency crisis, as well. The model underlies the role played in triggering the crisis both by expectations of exchange rate realignments and by fundamentals. As the persistence of unemployment has a feedback effect on subsequent periods’ expectations, the credibility of a currency board may decrease over time, eventually inducing a self-fulfilling crisis.     

The Changing Nature of Currency Crises

Abstract.  Currency crises that have been observed in recent years are not a new phenomenon, but the main features of the crises in Latin America in the 1970s and early 1980s are quite different from the crisis in Europe in 1992. Theoretical literature has evolved over time to account for the changing nature of these crises. While many theoretical and empirical papers have been written about various episodes of these crises, the change in their mechanism over time has not been demonstrated well. This paper fills the gap in the literature by graphically depicting the main features of these crises. Such a visual analysis should allow the reader to better understand and follow the changes in the mechanisms over time.     

The Yen as an International Currency

Japanese policy-makers have spent many years attempting to increase the role of the Yen as a regional and international currency. In this article Francis Breedon and Geoffrey Williams look at its role both before and after the Asian currency crisis. Pre-crisis they find that the Yen was of less regional importance than economic theory would suggest, so that its rapid depreciation from 1995 to 1997 did not influence regional currencies as much as it perhaps should have. Since the Asian crisis they find that its regional role has increased markedly, largely at the expense of the Dollar. This suggests that Yen volatility, which remains considerable, is likely to have more impact on regional Dollar exchange rates and thus less impact on real activity than before.     

Second Generation Models of Currency Crises

Until the beginning of the 1990s, currency crises were typically analyzed within the framework of a generation of models that assumed that the foreign exchange reserves of a country that was running a fixed exchange rate policy were falling (because the government was running a deficit on its budget that was financed by printing money). When the foreign exchange reserves reached a lower bound, a speculative attack on the fixed exchange rate was launched. Today, this theory is no longer the benchmark when explaining the occurrence of a currency crisis. Actually, a new generation of models that seeks to take explicitly into account the costs and benefits associated with the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate has emerged. This paper surveys these 'second generation models of currency crises'. This generation of models emphasizes that it is an endogenous decision if a government chooses to abandon a policy of fixed exchange rates. The survey pays special attention to the fact that the second generation of currency crises models often generates multiple equilibria for the rate of devaluation given one state of the economic fundamentals. A currency crisis can thus occur even if no secular trend in economic fundamentals can be identified, as in recent currency crises.     

The Fish War: A Lesson from Iceland

The Icelandic government's attempt to manage Iceland's fish stocks and yet accommodate political pressure from a powerful producer group, the trawlermen, yields valuable lessons on the dangers of intervention: one government measure greates difficulties that promote calls for another.     

货币替代和反替代对我国汇率影响的实证研究

货币替代和反替代会影响一国汇率政策的有效性和汇率的决定.我国目前货币替代和货币反替代并存,其中货币替代的程度呈现不断下降的趋势,而货币反替代的程度则不断增强.选取2001Q1-2011Q4之间的相关数据为研究样本,通过构建包含货币替代和货币反替代的粘性价格货币模型,实证检验了我国货币替代和货币反替代对人民币汇率的影响程度.结果发现:货币替代和货币反替代都会影响到我国的汇率,进而会降低我国汇率政策的有效性,但货币反替代的影响更加强烈.     

数字货币的概念辨析与问题争议

明确界定电子货币、虚拟货币和数字货币的概念,通过对三种非法币形式货币的对比研究,指出以比特币为首的数字货币与电子货币和虚拟货币的主要区别。从数字货币的基本特征出发,针对数字货币是否值得信任、是否真的安全和能否成为真正的货币三个具有争议性的问题给予综述和讨论。分析认为数字货币作为颠覆性创新虽然具有不可小觑的发展前景,但其健康发展离不开政府的认可和法律法规的保护,以及与传统金融体制的相互妥协和融合创新。最后本文指出数字货币的当前重点研究方向。     

我国货币流动性过剩之谜

自去年初以来直到目前,我国流动性过剩始终是一个热门话题,不仅因为央行在最近几年虽然不断治理过剩的货币流动性,仍未见较好的结果,也因为巨大的过剩货币正在强劲地推动我国的资产价格上涨,从而开始积攒起日益扩大的资产"泡沫"风险.     

货币错配:一种新的测度模型

国际上测度货币错配的指标体系经历过几次演变,但均存在重大缺陷。本文提出一种新的测度模型:综合货币错配绝对量指标(ACMAQ),基本解决了这些缺陷,提高了准确性与合理性。运用ACMAQ测算表明,中国目前面临着巨大的净外币资产型的货币错配,已经带来了巨大损失。从国际比较来看,无论是绝对量还是相对量,均在国际上名列前茅。从部门的交叉数据看,主要集中在公共部门与银行部门。     

中国货币供给的外生性研究

货币供给的外生(或内生)性问题,是货币理论研究中具有较强政策函义的一个问题。如果判定货币供给是内生变量,那就等于说,货币供给总是被动地取决于客观经济过程,而货币当局并不能有效地控制其变动。自然,货币政策的调节作用,特别是以货币供给变动为操作指标的调节作用,有很大的局限性。如果能确定货币供给是外生变量,货币当局则能够     

Currency options: Hayek and competing currencies

While monetary theory indicates the advantages of a single currency, there are compelling arguments for the UK to remain outside the euro-zone.