The federal reserve board MPS quarterly econometric model of the US economy

This paper describes the structure and properties of the Federal Reserve Board's (MPS) econometric model of the US economy. The theoretical underpinnings are developed using a small growth model that is a simplified version of the steady-state structure of the full model. Short-run dynamic properties, which are Keynesian, are discussed and quantified with simulation results. The largest part of the paper consists of a discussion of the theoretical basis and empirical properties of the key behavioural equations. A complete list of equations is included.     

Trade prices and supply in the UK economy

Current account imbalances are a major source of instability in the world monetary and trading system. Measures to correct these imbalances have largely involved adjustments to exchange rates. In the international trade literature, when the current account is in deficit, the Marshall-Lerner condition is sufficient for a successful devaluation. However, this partial equilibrium condition — apart from being based on the assumption that supply elasticities are infinite — abstracts from how the domestic economy responds to the change in relative prices. In this paper we develop a model of price and output determination in an open economy with imperpectly competitive markets, and draw a distinction between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. This means that we have to determine jointly both export prices and the domestic price of house sales. We show that as long as there is no money illusion in the labour market a fall in the nominal exchange rate raises domestic and export prices proportionally and leaves trade volumes unaffected. However, shifts in domestic absorption relative to overseas demand — by changing relative prices — cause shifts in the relative supply of exports and domestically sold goods and affect the trade balance. Thus fiscal and monetary measures directed towards reducing domestic absorption are more likely to be successful in correcting current account imbalances than exchange rate depreciation.     

Comparing tests of the theory of exhaustible resources

The empirical relevance of Hotelling’s exhaustible resource theory has been tested with primarily negative results. Tests have been performed on various resources, at different levels of aggregation, with varying market structures, and over different time periods. Consequently, it is difficult to draw any general conclusions concerning the theory’s applicability in explaining producer behavior, given the assumptions and restrictions implicit in the data and tests. This paper compares test results when the implicit restrictions associated with the data are removed. Employing a single data set we compare the results for four published tests. Even with this uniform data set, two approaches reject the theory while two do not.     

英国对科研稳定支持的做法

英国政府对科研采取稳定支持与竞争性支持相结合的\"双重资助体系\"。本文介绍了英国科研经费的总体情况;稳定支持与竞争性支持的经费比例与支持对象;稳定支持经费的管理模式,包括评估与经费分配办法;并分析了稳定支持发挥的作用。     

Is precise econometrics an illusion?1

Abstract

Many empirical economists say that the teaching of econometrics is unbalanced, and students are not well-prepared for the serious problems they will encounter with real data. Here, the author considers the problem of noisy data, which is present in most econometric studies, but receives far too little attention. Most econometric studies are done in a world of low signal-to-noise ratios, and educated common sense suggests that we cannot expect precise results in such an environment. Sensitivity analysis shows that the apparent precision of reported econometric results is generally an illusion, because it is highly dependent on error term independence assumptions.^1,2     

Maximum-likelihood estimation of misspecified models

Misspecified models occur frequently in econometric practice. It is therefore important to study the sampling distribution of maximum-likelihood estimators of parameters of misspecified models. This note exhibits the asymptotic covariance matrix of the ML estimator of a misspecified model. It points out that the expression for this matrix given by White is incorrect except for the very special case, rarely occuring in econometrics, that each observation is independent and identically distributed. An illustration using the standard linear regression model is provided.     

Dynamic model averaging in large model spaces using dynamic Occam׳s window

Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam׳s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.     

Econometric policy evaluation and expectations

Recently large-scale econometric models have been criticized as inappropriate tools for policy evaluation. One critical point often mentioned is the way expectations are formed. This paper shows that the way the process of expectations formation is considered does not play a crucial role. Instead, the ability to model agents' reactions to changes in policy is the essence of the critique. As long as government behaviour is sufficiently accessible in the model, applied econometrics may still use large-scale systems for which rational expectations solutions would be troublesome if not impossible to reach.     

基于计量分析的乌鲁木齐可持续发展水平评价

可持续发展已成为当今世界发展的共识.乌鲁木齐要充分发挥在新疆的＂引擎＂作用,就要求其发展具有可持续性.可持续发展的定量评价是实现可持续发展所要研究的关键问题之一.乌鲁木齐可持续发展水平自西部大开发以来呈逐年增长的趋势,且社会可持续发展是乌鲁木齐可持续发展的第一目标.同时,乌鲁木齐可持续发展水平虽总体上呈上升趋势,但也存在较大反复.     

A biannual recession-forecasting model

The model predicts out-of-sample whether an NBER-defined peak or trough will occur within the next half-year. It yields a 100% proportion of correct recursive forecasts from 1970 to 2015. All the necessary data are readily available in un-revised form.     

构建以学生为主体的模拟性教学模式

当前的高校市场营销专业实践教学领域存在着诸多问题,比如学生不能深入实践、学习内容面较狭窄等,而基于模拟环境的模拟性教学模式具有良好的教学价值。本文主张应当以学生为主体,根据市场调查课程的特点与实践教学的具体内容,设计现代市场调查的模拟教学思路,以作为一种新的教学模式帮助学生深入学习。     

城乡教育差距与收入差距关系及其成因探究

利用相关年份省级面板数据,研究我国城乡教育差距与收入差距之间的关系。固定效应模型回归结果显示,与城乡基础教育阶段差距相反,中等教育阶段的差距随收入差距和经济水平增长率变化呈现先减小、后增大的非线性变化趋势;政府来源和非政府来源教育经费对不同阶段的城乡教育差距有显著而不同的影响。其成因是城乡收入差距过大导致教育资源分配不平衡、教育机会不均等。     

应用于中国贸易政策内生化的模型综合

本文借国际贸易模型和制度经济学解析代理人目标函数 ,构造出满足转型经济需要的单部门和多部门模型及其演进路径 ,突出强调部门间利益表达能力和国家间实施贸易政策的治理结构差异对于代理人行为的意义。同时 ,通过观察 2 0世纪以来贸易政策实践 ,运用不变和可变替代弹性模型分别构造非谈判均衡约束和均衡谈判约束条件的贸易政策内生化模型。进而依据模型的经济含义提出改进中国贸易政策实施机制的若干政策建议