全球股票市场交易费用变动趋势研究

各国证券交易所为提高市场质量和增强国际竞争力,进行了股票市场交易费用结构与费率的频繁调整。本文首先总结了美国、英国、日本、香港等国家和地区交易所现行交易费用的结构特征,并以纽约证券交易所和伦敦证券交易所为案例估算了交易费率的调整比率。其次,本文运用2002年至2010年期间主要海外证券交易所的财务数据和市场数据,分析交易费用变动与交易所经营业绩的互动关系。最后,我们对欧美市场交易费用的大幅下调进行了成因分析,并探讨我国证券交易所内外部环境及经营特点与海外市场存在的差异,提出相关启示和思考。     

2013年银行问市场运行报告

2013年,银行间市场整体平稳运行,主要特点是：货币市场流动性趋紧,利率中枢显著抬升;债券市场交易量大幅下降,国债收益率屡创新高;在国际外汇市场表现分化、汇率动荡的背景下,人民币汇率总体走强,外汇市场面临一定）争结汇压力,但促进均衡因素增多,成交量较快增长,交易结构进一步改善。银行间市场的创新和开放继续推进,促进了基准利率体系的进一步完善、交易效率的提高和参与主体的丰富,为加快利率市场化创造条件。     

2012年2月银行间市场运行报告

2012年2月,银行间市场整体平稳运行,主要特点是：银行间市场资金面仍呈现偏紧格局,货币市场短期利率月中明显走高,银行间国债收益率曲线整体上移,利率互换成交曲线也出现明显上移。人民币汇率波动性减弱,但市场交易进一步活跃,新货币对交易显著增长,外汇衍生品交易创新高,市场结构继续优化;外汇远期曲线发布,形成基本完整的汇率衍生品市场基准体系。     

2012年3季度银行间市场运行报告

2012年第三季度,银行间市场整体平稳运行,主要特点是：银行间市场人民币资金面维持紧平衡格局,利率中枢走高,市场融资结构改变;债券市场金融创新持续推进;人民币对美元交易汇率相对于中间价偏离方向逆转,交易汇率创新高,非美货币交易份额显著上升;衍生品价格显示的汇率贬值预期幅度从高点开始回落。     

银行间外汇市场的规模比较和因素分析

该文将我国银行间外汇市场规模水平与新兴经济体比较,发现市场的“换手率”偏低,市场交易的功能并不十分突出。通过进一步探索,从实证的角度发现和证明人民币汇率的可交易性不强,表现为汇率本身的波动性不足、市场流动性与市场成交水平弱相关、市场参与者的交易存在同质化现象、头寸等管理制度对参与者的交易行为具有明显的约束。文章最后研究了发达市场上汇率的交易状态以资借鉴。     

Extreme returns: The case of currencies

Financial market crashes can occur even in the absence of news. This paper highlights four properties of price-contingent trading that increase the frequency of such events. Price-contingent trading is common across financial market, since it includes algorithmic trading, technical trading, and dynamic option hedging. The four properties we consider are: (1) high kurtosis in the distribution of order sizes; (2) clustering of trades within the day; (3) clustering of trades at certain prices; and (4) feedback between trading and returns. The paper estimates the relative importance of these factors using data from the foreign exchange market. Calibrated simulations indicate that interactions among these factors are at least as important as any single one. Among individual factors, the orders’ size distribution and feedback effects have the strongest influence. Overall, price-contingent trading could account for half of realized excess kurtosis. The paper suggests that extreme returns unaccompanied by news are statistically inevitable in the presence of price-contingent trading.     

A Rational Expectations Equilibrium with Informative Trading Volume

A large number of empirical studies find that trading volume contains information about the distribution of future returns. While these studies indicate that observing volume is helpful to an outside observer of the economy it is not clear how investors within the economy can learn from trading volume. In this paper, I show how trading volume helps investors to evaluate the precision of the aggregate information in the price. I construct a model that offers a closed‐form solution of a rational expectations equilibrium where all investors learn from (1) private signals, (2) the market price, and (3) aggregate trading volume.     

2012年7月银行间市场运行报告

2012年7月,银行间市场整体平稳运行,主要特点是：本币市场资金面呈现阶段性趋紧局面,货币市场利率高开低收;银行间债券市场延续慢牛行情,但上涨势头趋缓;人民币对美元交易汇率首次触及1％的波幅限制,但盘中波动温和,欧元汇率创十年来新低;利率互换交易量收缩,汇率衍生品市场份额继续提升,汇率贬值预期有所上升。     

Performance of Currency Trading Strategies in Developed and Emerging Markets: Some Striking Differences

Expanding the currency investment universe makes a lot of sense from a diversification point of view. Nevertheless, 60% of the total foreign exchange turnover is still only traded in three currency pairs (USD/EUR, USD/JPY and USD/GBP). The share of trading in local currencies in emerging markets is only around 5%. This can be explained by the fact that some currency managers fear investing in emerging market currencies. Many believe that political risk is the most dominant driver in these markets and that traditional investment rules do not work. In this paper, I apply four technical trading strategies for the developed market currencies and for the most traded emerging market currencies. The empirical results show some striking differences. They suggest that trend-following rules work better for emerging market currencies, while carry trading strategies perform better across developed market currencies. Nevertheless, it seems that conventional techniques could be successfully applied to both developed and emerging market currencies. I conclude that currency managers should not be afraid to diversify into emerging market currencies. They should, however, adjust their trading style accordingly.     

2013年1月银行间市场运行报告

2013年1月,银行间市场整体平稳运行,主要特点是：央行启用公开市场短期流动性调节工具,货币市场利率总体维持在较低水平;债券市场收益率曲线呈陡峭化走势;受国内外经济回暧等因素影响,人民币对美元汇率持续升值并创下历史新高,非美货币即期交易份额下降;利率衍生品成交量同比大幅增长,利率互换曲线陡峭化;汇率衍生品市场交易规模持续扩大,交易汇率震荡趋强。     

Is Off–Board Trading Detrimental to Market Liquidity?

Dual trading can have opposite effects: although competition between markets should induce dealers to offer cheaper transactions, market fragmentation could reduce market activity, liquidity, and exchange efficiency. This paper shows that for French stocks traded on the London Stock Exchange's SEAQ International (SEAQ–I), market activity decreases significantly in the Paris Bourse during UK bank holidays. Thus, SEAQ–I market makers seem to divert a new clientele to the Paris Bourse, increasing both market activity and the breadth of the Bourse's order book. Also, contrary to the fragmentation hypothesis, dual trading does not seem to increase information asymmetry.     

2014年4月银行间市场运行报告

4月,银行间市场的整体运行特点是：人民币市场资金面整体较为宽松,短期利率先抑后扬：债券市场交投仍显谨慎,收益率曲线平坦化;人民币汇率再创新低,交易汇率年内贬值超过3％;汇率衍生品曲线和人民币利率互换曲线均趋于陡峭化,隐含美元利率持续下降,汇率衍生品交投活跃。     

Optimal informed trading in the foreign exchange market

We formulate a market microstructure model of exchange determination that we employ to investigate the impact of informed trading on exchange rates and on foreign exchange (FX) market conditions. With our formulation, we show how strategic informed agents influence exchange rates via both the portfolio-balance and information effects. We outline the connection which exists between the private value of information, market efficiency, liquidity and exchange rate volatility. Our model is also consistent with recent empirical research on the micro-structure of FX markets.     

Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability

This paper extends current results concerning technical analysis efficiency on the foreign exchange market and attempts to determine whether filtering the raw exchange rate series with some trading rule significantly changes its characteristics. Because of the non-normality of exchange rate series, bootstrap methods are used on the main daily exchange rates since 1974 to show technical analysis performance. The technical analysis strategy tested generates returns whose distribution is significantly different from the basic series. The robustness of the results is tested in and out-of-sample and an explanation of the technical analysis performance based on its filtering properties is suggested.     

The information content of retail investors’ order flow

In this paper, we provide evidence that the trading activity of small retail investors carries significant genuine information that can be exploited for the short-term out-of-sample forecasting of foreign exchange rates. Our findings are based on a unique dataset of around 2000 retail investors from the OANDA FXTrade electronic trading platform. Our results are consistent with the view that in the foreign exchange market private information is highly dispersed, but can be extracted by observing customer order flow. Previous studies, however, focused on the information content of costumer order flow of dealers in the interbank market, whose clients are themselves large institutional and professional investors. Our study is the first that analyzes a crowd of small retail investors and shows that even the trading activity of these investors contains, on aggregate, important non-public information that can be exploited for short-term exchange rate forecasting. Our findings lead us to conjecture that retail investors (on aggregate) are not pure noise traders but process dispersed information at least partially in a similar way as large institutional investors and hence place their orders accordingly.     

2013年2月银行间市场运行报告

2013年2月,银行间市场整体平稳运行,主要特点是：货币市场利率整体上行;债券市场国债收益率曲线小幅波动;人民币对美元交易价偏离中间价幅度缩小,日均波动扩大,境内外即期价差明显收窄;利率互换短端利率小幅走高,中长端持稳;汇率衍生品市场交易维持增长趋势。     

2014年7月银行间市场运行报告

7月,银行间市场的主要运行特点是：人民币市场资金面整体较为宽松,市场利率以下跌为主;债券市场交投活跃,收益率曲线整体上移;人民币中间价先升后贬,交易价小幅升值;人民币利率互换曲线走升,利率互换交易量同比显著增长;汇率衍生品曲线长端上移,汇率衍生品交投活跃。     

The contribution of market makers to liquidity and efficiency of options trading in electronic markets

This paper examines the contribution of market makers to the liquidity and the efficiency of the options market in a unique setup of an order-driven computerized trading system, in which market makers and other participants operate under equitable conditions. The main findings are: (1) liquidity increased – a 60% increase in trading volume and a 35% decrease of bid–ask spreads; (2) the efficiency of shekel–euro options trading improved – deviations from put–call parity decreased significantly by 12%, and skewness decreased by about 30%. We also find that the net cost to the exchange is out weighted by the benefit to the trading public and that the presence of market makers encouraged trading between other participants far beyond their own trading.     

2012年11月银行间市场运行报告

2012年11月,银行间市场整体平稳运行,主要特点是：随货币政策转向净回笼,货币市场利率小幅波动;市场降息降准预期减弱,银行间债券收益率曲线下移;人民币对美元即期市场成交价连续涨停,人民币汇率升值势头延续并创历史新高,但市场流动性下降;利率互换成交大增,短期限交易活跃,利率互换曲线全线上行;汇率衍生品市场交投继续活跃,市场份额大幅提升。     

2013年8月银行间市场运行报告

2013年8月,银行间市场整体平稳运行,主要特点是：货币市场利率走势平稳,交易量环比略有增长;债券市场收益率继续推高近历史高位,交易量环比小幅增长;人民币利率互换曲线整体上移,交易量环比小幅下降;新兴市场汇率普遍下挫,人民币汇率相对坚挺,衍生品汇率与现货汇差收窄,人民币对澳元直接交易活跃。