从文化差异中寻求跨国经营优势

本文认为我国目前选择的货币政策 ,因为其特殊的货币供给机理中存在内滞 ,从而导致货币政策收效甚微 ,因此必须采取综合措施消除内滞。     

Transmission mechanism of monetary policy in India

This paper examines the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in India. Considering the external constraints on monetary policy, it estimates a series of vector autoregression models to examine the effects of an unanticipated monetary policy tightening on the real sector. The empirical results suggest that the lending rate initially increases in response to a monetary tightening. Banks play an important role in the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the real sector.     

Alternative views of the money transmission mechanism: what difference do they make for monetary policy?

This paper examines how alternative views of the monetary transmissionmechanism affect the choice of a monetary policy rule. The mainfinding is that many different structural models indicate thatthe same simple monetary policy rule - one in which the centralbank's target short-term interest rate reacts to inflation andto real output - would perform well. Such rules work well evenin models where the monetary transmission mechanism has a relativelystrong exchange-rate channel. The models differ, however, intheir implications for more complex monetary rules.     

我国货币供给内生性的理论分析与实证检验

我国货币政策失效的根本原因在于货币供给是内生的,而不是中央银行可以控制的外生变量。本文在回顾内生货币理论发展历程的基础上,从基础货币与货币乘数两个方面论述了我国货币供给内生性的历史演变和作用机理,并用向量自回归模型对货币供应量与国内生产总值的格兰杰因果关系     

从货币供给理论看我国当前货币政策的有效性

文章回顾了西方货币供给理论,结合我国当前宏观经济及货币信贷投放情况的新特点,指出货币供给内生性不断增强的趋势,并提出进一步发挥货币政策效用的对策。     

市场营销的虚拟化策略与实施

本文对近几年我国通货紧缩的经济背景下的货币供给特征进行了综述 ,指出在我国货币当局使用多种货币政策工具进行宏观货币调控的过程中 ,扩大使用公开市场业务操作 ,对于达到我国物价稳定的货币政策目标所起到的关键性作用及其优势。最后还论述了公开市场业务发展的前景。     

The real effects of monetary policy in China: An empirical analysis

This paper examines whether institutional changes have affected the interaction between the real economy and monetary policy in China. We find evidence that structural changes in the financial and real sectors over the period of our study did influence the way in which monetary policy affected the real economy. There were an increasing influence of interest rates on output over 1984 to 1997 and non-state owned enterprises were increasingly reacting to monetary policy changes, suggesting that banking sector reforms were having effects, despite the fact that most credit was allocated to the loss-making State sector.     

The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Japan: Evidence from banks' balance sheets

We examine how banks' responses to monetary policy vary according to their balance sheet using Japanese bank data from 1975 to 1999. We find that the effect of monetary policy on lending is stronger for banks that are smaller, less liquid, and more abundant with capital. The effects of bank balance sheet on monetary transmission are different by bank types, policy stances and borrowers' industries. Our results imply that a lending channel of monetary transmission exists, that the effect of expansionary monetary policy is attenuated if banks' capital is scarce, and that the effect of monetary policy on the allocation of funds depends on banks' balance sheets. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (3) (2006) 380–405.     

Salient features of China’s monetary policy

The paper analyzes the objectives and instruments of China’s monetary policy. Until recently, China succeeded in handling the complicated problem of simultaneously curbing inflation and preventing the national currency from getting too strong in the context of a high active balance of trade. Russian monetary authorities, which are also facing the problem of surplus inflow of funds (petrodollars, loans, and investments), have been unable so far to find an effective solution. An analysis of the Chinese experience of monetary regulation and its comparison with the domestic practices suggests that the Russian monetary authorities should substantially revise their approach to maintaining a balance between the money market and the forex market. This revision would help to retard the strengthening of the ruble, to balance the pressure on prices, and to release budgetary investment resources.     

Transparency in monetary policy

The paper examines different aspects of transparency. Transparency serves democratic accountability by promoting public control. Specifically, the degree of transparency conditions inflation expectations, hence the central bank's scope for stabilization. Recent studies have put doubt on the notion that complete transparency is socially desirable. Here it is pointed out that the conclusion critically depends on an asymmetric modelling of stochastic preferences. The paper also reviews the pros and cons of revealing individual voting. A conclusion is that secrecy is to be prefered in monetary unions in order to shield governors from pressure by home governments. Presidential Address presented at the Fifty-Third International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 13–17, 2002, Paris, France.     

Uncertainty and monetary policy

The experience of monetary policy making in an uncertain environmenthas encouraged increased attention to the concept of model uncertainty,that is, uncertainty as to which is the best model. A particulardifficulty has been the need to operationalise the concept inorder to yield definitive policy recommendations. If this typeof uncertainty is unquantifiable, then a policy rule determinedby a single model may not in fact be the best approach; pluralismof method and the exercise of judgement offer a potential solution.A rigorous foundation for such an approach is available in Keynes'sphilosophical analysis of decision making under uncertainty.It is concluded that more analytical attention needs to be devotedto agents’ own model uncertainty, and to judgement. Butultimately the scope for synthesis between the model uncertaintyand Keynes uncertainty approaches rests on whether or not thesubject matter is such that knowledge of it is best representedby one formal model.     

加强我国公司法人治理结构中的激励与约束机制

本文利用相关分析、Granger因果检验、回归分析三种统计指标分析了CPI与GDP的关系 ,指出CPI作为通货膨胀指标的可行性。要实现CPI的控制目标 ,应以M 2作为货币政策中介目标较为合理     

央行紧收银根 坚定不移

从央行频繁重磅发行票据，且多是3年期的长期票据来看，央行收缩银根的态度坚定不移     

科研开发活动的有偿性与增值税的计征问题——从一个案说起

本文通过案例分析了科研开发中有关费用的性质，指出开发成果不是销售货物，国家在征收增值税时应给予政策上的优惠。     

Navigating the trilemma: Capital flows and monetary policy in China

In recent years China has faced an increasing trilemma—how to pursue an independent domestic monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility, while at the same time facing large and growing international capital flows. This paper analyzes the impact of the trilemma on China's monetary policy as the country liberalizes its good and financial markets and integrates with the world economy. It shows how China has sought to insulate its reserve money from the effects of balance of payments inflows by sterilizing through the issuance of central bank liabilities. However, we report empirical results indicating that sterilization dropped precipitously in 2006 in the face of the ongoing massive buildup of international reserves, leading to a surge in reserve money growth.We also estimate a vector error correction model linking the surge in China's reserve money to broad money, real GDP, and the price level. We use this model to explore the inflationary implications of different policy scenarios. Under a scenario of continued rapid reserve money growth (consistent with limited sterilization of foreign exchange reserve accumulation) and strong economic growth, the model predicts a rapid increase in inflation. A model simulation using an extension of the framework that incorporates recent increases in bank reserve requirements also implies a rapid rise in inflation. By contrast, model simulations incorporating a sharp slowdown in economic growth such as that seen in late 2008 and 2009 lead to less inflation pressure even with a substantial buildup in international reserves.     

分析中国货币政策的有效性

我国货币政策的最终目标是稳定币值,促进经济稳定增长。中央银行是通过货币政策工具控制和调节中介目标———货币供应量来实现这个最终目标的。本文通过探讨货币是中性还是非中性,货币供应量是内生还是外生,我国货币政策的传导机制是否畅通这三个问题,最终得出了我国货币政策     

Dual-track interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy in China

China has a dual-track interest-rate system: bank deposit and lending rates are regulated while money and bond rates are market-determined. The central bank also imposes an indicative target, which may not be binding at all times, for total credit in the banking system. We develop and calibrate a theoretical model to illustrate the conduct of monetary policy within the framework of dual-track interest rates and a juxtaposition of price- and quantity-based policy instruments. We show the transmission of monetary policy instruments to market interest rates, which, together with the indicative credit target in the banking system, ultimately are the means by which monetary policy affects the real economy. The model shows that market interest rates are most sensitive to changes in the benchmark deposit interest rates, significantly responsive to changes in the reserve requirements, but not particularly reactive to open market operations. These theoretical results are verified and supported by both linear and GARCH models using daily money and bond market data. Overall, the findings of this study help us to understand why the central bank conducts monetary policy in China the way it does, using a combination of price and quantitative instruments with differing degrees of potency in terms of their influence on the cost of credit.     

Postwar monetary policy

Summary Monetary policy has played an active role in Dutch postwar economic policy. Essentially, it has sought to contribute to balanced economic growth by controlling the money supplyM ₂ in relation to national income. Policy measures extend to all sources of money creation-viz. bank credit, public sector finance and the balance of payments - and are predominantly of the quantitative type. This is reflected, among other things, in medium-term targets for the structure and outcome of the balance of payments and the size and coverage of the public sector's borrowing requirement. Internationally, the Netherlands favour and participate in stable exchange rate systems. This has not led to serious conflicts with domestic monetary objectives until the seventies, when excessive easing of monetary conditions had to be accepted temporarily.     

The Netherlands Bank's narrow monetary policy

Summary In his article Mr. Timmerman describes the way the Netherlands Bank conducts its so-called narrow monetary policy,i.e. the policy pursued in the money and foreign exchange markets. The developments during the period October 1979–July 1981 serve as example of how movements in Dutch money market rates are dominated by exogenous factors. The author concludes that in a small open economy which maintains a stable exchange rate there is no room for an independent money market policy and that the hectic developments in the international money and foreign exchange markets have made illusory what until very recently was regarded as the most important objective of the narrow monetary policy,viz. an orderly money market. P.C. Timmerman was Deputy Director of De Nederlandsche Bank N.V. and is now Managing Director of De Bank van de Nederlandse Antillen. A similar article by the author appeared inZoeklicht op beleid, liber amicorum in honour of Professor G.A. Kessler.     

The effectiveness of monetary policy in China: Evidence from a Qual VAR

Analyzing monetary policy in China is not straightforward because the People's Bank of China (PBoC) implements policy by using more than one instrument. In this paper we use a Qual VAR, a conventional VAR system augmented with binary policy announcements, to extract a latent indicator of tightening and easing pressure, respectively, for China. The model acknowledges that policy announcements are endogenous and summarizes policy by a single indicator. The Qual VAR allows us to study the impact of monetary policy in terms of unexpected changes in these latent variables, which we identify using sign restrictions. We show that the transmission of monetary policy impulses to the rest of the economy is similar to the transmission process in advanced economies in terms of both output growth and inflation despite a very different monetary policy framework. We find that bank loans are not sensitive to policy changes, which implies that window guidance is still a necessary policy tool. We also find that the impact of monetary policy shocks is asymmetric in terms of asset prices, that is, the asset price reactions differ in their sensitivity to tightening shocks and easing shocks, respectively. In particular, an easing of monetary conditions boosts stock prices while a tightening shock leaves stock prices unaffected. This shows that monetary policy is not a suitable tool to stabilize asset prices, which raises implications for financial stability and macroprudential policy.