房地产投资中的实物期权决策方法研究

房地产投资的不确定性特征,影响到投资决策。传统方法在评价项目价值中有一定的应用局限性,而实物期权考虑了管理灵活性和战略投资的价值,是更为合理的决策方法。在对房地产投资中的实物期权特性分析的基础上,阐述了房地产投资中蕴含的实物期权类型,结合案例分析了实物期权方法的应用优势,为管理者提供指导和帮助,从而使投资决策更加科学合理。     

实物期权在高新技术项目投资中的应用

高新技术项目由于具有风险和收益的不确定性,因此不能采用传统的净现值方法来评估是否对其进行投资。本文在分析高新技术项目所具有的特点的基础上,指出高新技术项目投资过程中存在由各类不同的实物期权组成的复合期权,并且分析了实物期权在高新技术项目投资中应用的过程。     

基于实物期权的企业合作研发投资决策分析

在项目投资中,不确定性在项目的评估和投资决策中非常重要。本文通过将实物期权思想与传统的项目评价方法净现值法(NPV)结合起来,在一个两阶段双寡头博弈模型中,分析了企业间合作研发的投资决策问题。     

关于布莱德·斯科尔斯实物定价期权模型在铁路联合运输中的投资决策运用

期权定价理论应用到实务投资领域之后．实物期权理论研究方兴未艾。本文旨在通过对比折现现金流量法和布莱克一斯科尔斯实物期权定价模型在实际项目投资中的决策计算结果．探讨在有扩张预期的项目投资中的财务决策应该关注的内容,从而给项目投资决策者更加具有实际指导意义的理论基础和实际预测的方法。     

基于实物期权的企业合作研技投资决策分析

在项目投资中，不确定性在项目的评估和投资决策中非常重要。本文通过将实物期权思想与传统的项目评价方法法净现值法（NPV）结合起来，在一个两阶段双寡头博弈模型中，分析了企业间合作研发的投资决策问题。     

实物期权及其在风险投资中的应用

从广义的期权定义中引出实物期权的概念,对金融期权和实物期权进行比较分析;并借鉴金融期权的定价方法,得出实物期权的定价公式。通过计算风险投资项目中实物期权的价值,比较含有实物期权的风险投资项目与一般投资项目的价值,可以看出在风险投资中引入实物期权的思想,对风险投资家做出正确的投资决策,以及对风险资本的保值增值有重大的指导意义。     

实物期权在CDM项目投资中的应用

清洁发展机制(CDM)项目在开发投资过程中不仅面临常见的工程风险,还包括一些与CDM项目相关的特殊风险。传统的投资评价方法不能有效处理CDM项目所涉及的各个阶段的不确定风险及CDM项目投资所蕴涵的战略价值。本文根据CDM项目投资的特点分析了实物期权在CDM项目投资中的应用。     

实物期权及其在风险投资中的应用

文章介绍了实物期权理论的基本概念,论述了实物期权在风险投资中的应用。通过借鉴金融期权的定价方法,得出实物期权的定价公式,并以分段投资期权为例证明实物期权确实能给风险投资家带来某些创见,最后对实物期权的适用性进行了一般评述。     

实物期权在项目投资管理中的应用

针对传统投资评价方法对风险项目投资评估的局限性,以及国内对实物期权方法的研究和应用现状,本文在分析企业不确定性因素以及企业内部应对这种不确定性能力的基础上,阐述了企业如何运用期权的理念和技术进行科学的投资管理。     

期权博弈在外贸企业风险投资决策中的应用

本文为了更好地对外贸企业风险投资项目进行评价,在传统的评价方法上引入了实物期权博弈理论,并针对竞争条件下的不确定性投资,建立了更适合于外贸企业风险投资决策分析的实物期权博弈模型。     

Driving Shareholder Value: The Role of Marketing in Reducing Vulnerability and Volatility of Cash Flows

Marketing professionals have historically found it difficultto measure and communicate to other disciplines and to top managementthe value created by marketing activities. All too often, justificationof marketing and communication initiatives is restricted to theirimpact on revenue generation. But, marketers do create valuein other ways. Marketing actions do lead to an acceleration ofthe market's acceptance of new products, to enhanced customerretention/loyalty, to an improvement in the size and qualityof customer bases, to price premiums and other desirable payoffs.Such financial outcomes suggest that marketing activities areoften strategic investments, not tactical, intangible expenses.We suggest that the effectiveness of marketinginitiatives should be evaluated on the basis of their impacton the basic drivers of shareholder value–cash flow acceleration,cash flow enhancement, reduction in volatility and vulnerabilityof cash flows, and growth in the long-term value of business).These shareholder value metrics provide a framework for communicationof the contribution of marketing strategies to value creation.In particular, this paper focuses on the role of marketing inenhancing shareholder value by reducing the vulnerability andvolatility (hence risks) associated with cash flows. This riskreduction (and shareholder value creation) role of marketingactivities is examined within cross-functional processes forcreating customer value such as design of new products and services,supply chain management and management of relationships withcustomers, channels and strategic partners.     

How Does Web Personalization Create Value for Online Retailers? Lower Cash Flow Volatility or Enhanced Cash Flows

This study examines the performance consequences of web personalization (WP), a type of personalization in which web content is personalized and recommendations are offered based on customer preferences. Despite the growing popularity of personalization, there is a dearth of research at the firm level on whether and how web personalization creates shareholder value. We develop and test a conceptual model that proposes that the impact of WP on shareholder value is mediated by (1) cash flow volatility and (2) premium price. The hypotheses are tested based on 603 firm-quarter observations spanning 80 firms over six years in the online financial services industry. The results suggest that while WP lowers the volatility of cash flows, it only enables firms to charge premium prices when online trust is high. Additional tests reveal that the reduction in cash flow volatility is because of lower churn as opposed to acquiring new customers or greater cross-buying. Finally, online trust positively moderates the relationships between WP and cash flow volatility and price premia. Practical implications of the findings are discussed.     

Does switching from NASDAQ to the NYSE affect investment–cash flow sensitivity?

We examine whether a firm's sensitivity of investments to cash flow changes when it switches from the NASDAQ to the NYSE over the period 1992–2002. Contrary views exist on the effect of listing switches on investment sensitivity to cash flow. Investment–cash flow sensitivity is a proxy for the degree of uncertainty of using internal funds to finance a firm's investments. We use a least square dummy variable model to analyze panel data before and after switching to determine the impact of switching. Based on pooled data, our evidence is consistent with the view that NASDAQ-to-NYSE switchers have significantly lower investment–cash flow sensitivity, which means that firms rely less heavily on internal financing after switching and find accessing external financing easier. Thus, firms may benefit from switching in terms of a lower cost of external capital due to such factors as increasing visibility, liquidity, and reputation.     

基于自由现金流量的企业价值评估:以索芙特公司为例

本文在介绍自由现金流量折现法相关原理的基础上,选取一家名为索芙特的化妆品上市公司,通过分析该上市公司过去五年的相关财务数据,并结合整个化妆品的行业环境以及该企业的发展现状,分析影响企业价值评估的宏观环境和微观环境,进而探究该公司未来五年的自由现金流量。依据两阶段自由现金流量模型估算出索芙特公司的价值。基于此,本文从调整资本结构,提高公司自由现金流量的增长率两方面对索芙特公司的价值管理提出建议。     

An examination of the effectiveness of static hedging in the presence of stochastic volatility

Toft and Xuan (1998) use simulation evidence to demonstrate that the static hedging method of Derman et al. (1995) performs inadequately when volatility is stochastic. Particularly, the greater the “volatility of volatility,” the poorer the static hedge. This article presents an alternative static hedging methodology, denoted the generalized static hedge, that appears to perform more reliably. Specifically, the value, delta, and vega of the static hedges closely approximate those values of the barrier option being hedged. Further, simulation evidence indicates that when volatility of volatility is large, the standard deviation of simulated cash flows from the generalized static hedge position is less than the standard deviation of simulated cash flows from previously defined static hedge positions. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:859–890, 2003     

Cash trading and index futures price volatility

This study examines the effect of cash market liquidity on the volatility of stock index futures. Two facets of cash market liquidity are considered: (1) the level of liquidity trading proxied by the expected New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) trading volume and (2) the noise composition of trading proxied by the average NYSE trading commission cost. Under the framework of spline–GARCH with a liquidity component, both the quarterly average commission cost and the quarterly expected NYSE volume are negatively associated with the ex ante daily volatility of S&P 500 and NYSE composite index futures. Conversely, liquidity and noise trading in the cash market both dampen futures price volatility, ceteris paribus. This negative association between secular cash trading liquidity and daily futures price volatility is amplified during times of market crisis. These results retain statistical significance and materiality after controlling for bid–ask bounce of futures prices and volume of traded futures contracts. This study establishes empirical evidence to affirm the conventional prediction of a liquidity–volatility relationship: the liquidity effect is secular and persistent across markets. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:465–486, 2011     

Why Do Firms in Customer–Supplier Relationships Hold More Cash?

A firm is in customer–supplier relationships when its business depends on a small number of major customers/suppliers. In this paper, we provide evidence that relationship‐specific investments undertaken by firms in customer–supplier relationships are associated with high cash holdings in these firms. The evidence is consistent with the prediction of Titman's stakeholder theory that a firm relying on relationship‐specific investments maintains a high cash reserve as a cushion to sustain its relationship‐specific investments when negative shocks occur. Our findings suggest that relationship‐specific investments are important determinants of the precautionary motive to hold cash.     

The limits to stock index arbitrage: Examining S&P 500 futures and SPDRS

This study examines factors affecting stock index spot versus futures pricing and arbitrage opportunities by using the S&P 500 cash index and the S&P 500 Standard and Poor's Depository Receipt (SPDR) Exchange‐Traded Fund (ETF) as “underlying cash assets.” Potential limits to arbitrage when using the cash index are the staleness of the underlying cash index, trading costs, liquidity (volume) issues of the underlying assets, the existence of sufficient time to execute profitable arbitrage transactions, short sale restrictions, and the extent to which volatility affects mispricing. Alternatively, using the SPDR ETF as the underlying asset mitigates staleness and trading cost problems as well as the effects of volatility associated with the staleness of the cash index. Minute‐by‐minute prices are compared over different volatility levels to determine how these factors affect the limits of S&P 500 futures arbitrage. Employing the SPDR as the cash asset examines whether a liquid tradable single asset with low trading costs can be used for pricing and arbitrage purposes. The analysis examines how long mispricing lasts, the impact of volatility on mispricing, and whether sufficient volume exists to implement arbitrage. The minute‐by‐minute liquidity of the futures market is examined using a new transaction volume futures database. The results show that mispricings exist regardless of the choice of the underlying cash asset, with more negative mispricings for the SPDR relative to the S&P 500 cash index. Furthermore, mispricings are more frequent in high‐ and mid‐volatility months than in low‐volatility months and are associated with higher volume during high‐volatility months. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1182–1205, 2008     

中国上市公司债务期限结构及影响因素研究

债务期限结构是资本结构相关研究中的热点。在对债务期限实证研究回顾和对中国上市公司债务期限结构总体分析的基础上,采用混合回归、固定效应回归和随机效应回归模型,以2006年-2012年628家非金融上市公司组成的混和面板数据为样本（共4396个观察值）,选取资产期限、成长期权、公司规模、自由现金流量、实际税率、公司价值波动性和资本结构为解释变量,考察影响债务期限结构的因素。实证结果显示,资产期限、公司规模和杠杆率与债务期限呈显著正相关,自由现金流量与债务期限呈显著负相关,但成长期权、实际税率和公司价值波动性与债务期限结构的相关性不显著。而且,不同行业之间的债务期限结构存在显著差异。     

The impact of volatility derivatives on S&P500 volatility

This study investigates whether the newly cultivated platform of volatility derivatives has altered the volatility of the underlying S&P500 index. The findings suggest that the onset of the volatility derivatives trading has lowered the volatility of both the cash market volatility and the cash market index, and significantly reduced the impact of shocks to volatility. When big sudden events hit financial markets, however, the volatility of volatility seems to elevate in the U.S. equity market as a result of increased global correlations. Regardless of the period under examination and the estimator employed, long‐run volatility persistence is present. The latter drops significantly when the credit crunch period is excluded from the post‐event date sample period. The correlation between the broad equity index and the return volatility remains low, which in turn strengthens the role of volatility derivatives to facilitate portfolio diversification. The analysis also shows that volatility is mean reverting, whereas market data support the impact of information asymmetries on conditional volatility. In the post‐event date phase, no asymmetries are found when the recent crisis is not accounted for. Finally, comparisons with other international equity indices, with no volatility derivatives listed, unveil that these indices exhibit higher volatility and slower recovery from shocks than the S&P500 index. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:1190–1213, 2009