On the Long Run Effects of Public Capital and Disaggregated Public Capital on Aggregate Output

We study the cointegration properties of data on aggregate output, five proxies for labor, two proxies for private capital, public capital, and disaggregated public capital for the United States for 1948–1993. We find evidence of multiple cointegrating vectors; we typically find three or four cointegrating vectors depending on which combination of proxies is evaluated. When public capital is disaggregated by type there is less evidence for cointegration. Finally, innovations in public capital have long lasting effects on output, labor, and private capital, and innovations to output, labor, and private capital also have long lasting effects on public capital.     

经合组织国家医疗融资结构的收敛：经验与启示

摘要：医疗融资是医疗体制中的一个重要组成部分,具有募集资金、分担与降低风险、购买医疗服务等功能。文章基于17个OECD国家1972—2010年间的医疗融资数据,采用公共融资占医疗总融资的比例和人均公共融资作为收敛检验指标,利用盯收敛和p收敛两种判定收敛的方法,结果显示,总样本中这两项指标均发生了收敛现象,收敛的程度随医疗体制类型和时间段的不同而不同,且并非总是单调的。文章的结论虽只是初步的,但深入研究医疗融资结构收敛及其成因和效果,必将对我国医疗体制改革尤其是医疗融资政策设计具有重要意义。     

Public Debt,Human Capital Formation,and Dynamic Inefficiency

The present paper considers public debt in an economy where human capital formation sustains long-run per capita income growth. It shows that contrary to what has been obtained in other types of endogenous growth economies public debt may benefit current and future generations by removing dynamic inefficiency.     

Public Policy for Venture Capital

This paper proposes a simple partial equilibrium model to investigate the effects of government policy on venture capital backed investments. Giving up an alternative career, entrepreneurs focus their effort on a single, high risk venture each. Venture capitalists acquire an equity stake and offer a base salary as well. In addition to providing incentive compatible equity finance, they support the venture with managerial advice to raise survival chances. We analyze several policy measures addressed at venture capital activity: government spending on entrepreneurial training, subsidies to equipment investment, and output subsidies at the production stage. While these measures stimulate entrepreneurship, only cost-effective government services can improve welfare.     

陕西省人口城镇化与就业增长之间的关系研究--基于VAR模型的实证检验

陕西省人口城镇化发展水平与就业增长之间是否存在真实的影响关系,人口城镇化发展水平是否构成就业增长波动的动因？如果人口城镇化水平能促进就业增长,那么促进过程在长短期又具有表现出什么特性？基于此,本文采用1978年-2012年的样本数据,运用协整理论、误差修正模型和VAR模型实证检验陕西省就业增长与人口城镇化水平之间的真实影响关系,从而提出针对性措施以促进陕西就业增长与人口城镇化的包容性发展。     

The Dynamic Relationship Between Housing Prices and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper studies the dynamic relationship among house prices, income and interest rates in 15 OECD countries. We find that any disequilibrium in the long-run cointegrating relationship among these variables is corrected by the subsequent movement in house prices in most of these countries. This error-correction property of house prices implies that most of the variations in house prices are transitory, as compared to the movements in income and interest rates that are permanent, suggesting that the short-run movements in house prices are independent of the movements in income and interest rates. The results suggest that only the permanent movement in house prices, income and interest rates are associated with each other. We also find that the correlation in house price cycles across different OECD countries has changed over time with the highest correlation during the boom period of 1998–2005.     

Firm Internationalization and Capital Structure in Developing Countries: The Role of Financial Development

We investigate the relationship between internationalization and the level of debt financing for more than 18,000 firm/year observations from thirty-one developing countries in the period 1991-2006. We argue that this relationship can be affected by both country-level and firm-level factors. The results show that in developing countries with relatively higher financial development, firm internationalization corresponds with a greater level of debt when firms have more growth opportunities (which also indicate a higher level of asymmetric information). This evidence suggests that relatively developed financial markets in developing countries at least partially mitigate the effect of asymmetric information and decrease the agency cost of debt for firms with higher levels of internationalization.     

The Comovements of Capital Inflows in the Frequency Domain: Evidence from Emerging Countries

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the correlations between capital inflows and business cycles in emerging countries, and also investigates the comovements of capital inflows, by capital types, within and across regions (Asia, Latin America, and Europe) in the frequency domain. In general, bank loans show positive correlations with business cycles at all frequencies across emerging countries. In addition, I find that the dynamic correlations between capital types are high at low frequencies and become lower at the higher frequency domains. The cohesion (comovements within a region) and cross-cohesion (comovements across regions) differ in accordance with the capital types and frequency domains.     

Contagion of Capital Markets in CEE Countries: Evidence from Wavelet Analysis

We employed wavelets technology to investigate how and when contagion occurred on 10 Central and Eastern European financial markets in relation to Western European and US financial markets during 2000–2016 and their different reactions on the background of changes in their regulatory framework. We found that most of Central and Eastern European (CEE) capital markets showed contagion in relation to both Western European and US markets between 2005 and 2009, while Slovakian and Estonian markets showed no contagion. However, during 2010–2016, Croatian market showed de-contagion in relation to Western European market, while Bulgarian, Czech, Hungarian, and Polish markets showed de-contagion in relation to US market, increasing their independence.     

A Note on the Composition of Public Expenditure under Capital Tax Competition

Keen and Marchand ( Journalof Public Economics, 1997, 66, 33–53) argue that undercapital tax competition, the composition of public expenditureis inefficient in that too much is spent on public inputs benefitinglocal business and too little on public goods benefiting residents.Their result depends on labor immobility. This note shows thatthe Keen-Marchand argument may not hold if both labor and capitalare mobile. An interesting case is identified where capital taxationdoes not distort the mix of public goods and public inputs, eventhough the overall level of public expenditure is inefficientlylow.     

货币政策与财政政策的区域效应研究——基于中国31个省级面板数据的PVAR模型分析

通过建立一个四自变量两层级的面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）,以2004年1月~2012年9月中国31个省际面板数据为研究样本,针对货币政策与财政政策的区域效应进行了实证检验。结果表明,经济发达地区的经济增长对货币政策中的存款准备金比率调整较为敏感,而经济不发达地区对货币政策中的公开市场操作的敏感性更强;财政政策对经济次发达地区和经济不发达地区的经济增长和物价水平增长的影响较为显著,对经济发达地区影响相对较小。     

The Effects of Public Venture Capital Investments on Corporate Governance: Evidence From IPO Firms in Emerging Markets

This study examines the impact of public venture capital (hereafter PVC) investments on corporate governance of initial public offering (hereafter IPO) firms in emerging markets. Using data collected from Taiwan PVC investments during 1996–2005, we analyse three corporate governance features in IPO firms: earnings management, board characteristics, and excess control by controlling shareholders. We find that PVC‐backed firms use fewer accounting accruals in their IPO financial statements than non‐PVC‐backed firms. This result suggests that PVC‐backed IPO firms engage in less earnings management than non‐PVC‐backed IPO firms. We also find PVC‐backed firms tend to set up their boards with fewer non‐independent directors and supervisors at IPO. This result indicates that PVC‐backed IPO firms have better board structures than non‐PVC‐backed IPO firms. Finally, we find that controlling shareholders are less likely to exert excess control in PVC‐backed firms than in non‐PVC‐backed firms. Overall, our results indicate that PVC investments add value to new IPO firms not only in financing their capital needs but also in creating better corporate governance structures in emerging markets.     

国有资本收入对养老保险的划拨率研究

本文试图建立一个基于中国特殊国情基础之上的关于国有资本收入划拨社会保障制度的研究框架,对我国国有资本收入如何与社会保障制度进行联系提供理性分析框架,并提出建设性的意见。本文将国有资本收入转移到养老保险制度的比例定义为划拨率,对于这个划拨率的最优选择问题就是本文研究的重点。通过构建一般均衡模型。研究发现在一定的条件下,随着划拨率的不断提高,以总消费为代表的社会福利水平出现先增长后下降的趋势,这预示存在着使社会福利极大的最优的划拨率水平。     

Monitoring Role of Venture Capital in the Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from Korea

Because the government has initiated the development of venture capital firms in Korea, independent venture capital firms have been significantly influenced by government regulations and interventions; in contrast, corporations have made venture investments internally to avoid the regulations. This study investigates whether the Korean institutional environment harms the monitoring role of independent venture capital firms, while it does not significantly impact corporate venture capital firms. In an IPO setting, we find that earnings management (long-term performance) significantly decreases (increases) with the ownership of corporate venture capital firms. However, we do not find a significant relation between the ownership of independent venture capital firms and earnings management or long-term performance. The results suggest that Korean independent venture capital firms do not play a role in monitoring their investee companies; in contrast, corporate venture capital firms play a monitoring role.     

The Costs, Wealth Effects, and Determinants of International Capital Raising: Evidence from Public Yankee Bonds

This paper examines the costs, wealth effects, and determinants of international capital raising for a sample of 260 public debt issues made by non-U.S. firms in the Yankee bond market. We find that investors demand economically significant premiums on bonds issued by firms that are located in countries that do not protect investors' rights and do not have a prior history of ongoing disclosure. The results provide support for the literature that suggests better legal protections and more detailed information disclosure increases the price investors will pay for financial assets. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F3, G1.     

2000～2008年OECD成员国个人所得税变化及对我国的启示

本文通过对2000～2008年OECD成员国个人所得税变化的分析,得出OECD成员国低收入纳税人税负下降、高收入纳税人税负上升,个人所得税最高边际税率普遍下降、税率档次进一步减少、税收累进性提高等结论。借鉴OECD成员国经验并结合我国国情,认为我国个人所得税的功能应定位于调节收入分配,并就如何提高我国个人所得税累进性提出了相关政策建议。     

The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries*

The aim of this paper is to assess the short‐term effects of social spending on economic activity. Using a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005, the results show that social spending has expansionary effects on GDP. In particular, we find that an increase of 1 per cent in social spending increases GDP by about 0.1 percentage points, which, given the share of social spending in GDP, corresponds to a multiplier of about 0.6. The effect is similar to that of total government spending, and it is larger in periods of severe downturns. Among spending subcategories, social spending on health and on unemployment benefits have the greatest effects. Social spending also positively affects private consumption, while it has negligible effects on investment. The empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.     

Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance*

This paper reviews the practice and performance of revenue forecasting in selected OECD countries. It turns out that the cross‐country differences in the performance of revenue forecasting are first of all associated with uncertainty about the macroeconomic fundamentals. To some extent, they are also driven by country characteristics such as the importance of corporate and (personal) income taxes. Also, differences in the timing of the forecasts prove important. However, controlling for these differences, we find that the independence of revenue forecasting from possible government manipulation exerts a robust, significantly positive effect on the accuracy of revenue forecasts.     

The Impact of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Central and Eastern European Countries

This study tests the importance of various categories of public expenditure, the functional structure, and growth in the gross domestic product (GDP), using an autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) model. We document and study the correlation between real GDP growth and 10 different categories of public expenditure, according to their functional classification, using quarterly data for the period 1995–2015, for 10 selected Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union. The results of our study, like most recent literature, show that expenditures on education and health care have a positive impact on the economy, while expenditures on defense, economic affairs, general public services, and social welfare have a negative impact.     

The Response of Dynamic Herd Behavior to Domestic and U.S. Market Factors: Evidence from the Greater China Stock Markets

ABSTRACT

We investigate the dynamic reaction of stock market herding in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan to unexpected shocks from domestic and U.S. market factors. In China and Taiwan, herding is more pronounced, and the investors tend to herd with the rising stock market returns. Overconfident investors will herd on the subsequent trading days under market stress. Compared with the response to the domestic market factors, the responses of herding in the Greater China stock market to the U.S. market factors are weaker. After the 2007–8 financial crisis, the U.S. market factors highly explain the forecast error variance of herding in the Shanghai A-share and Taiwan markets.