Coloured semantic networks for content analysis

This paper adapts a widespread formalism of Knowledge Representation known in the AI literature as J. Sowa'sConceptual Graphs to the purposes of Content Analysis. It is proposed that instead of nested contexts, negation and modalities could be represented by colouring the links and the nodes of the graphs. This colour-based representation of logic enables the replacement of Sowa's game-theoretical semantics by a matching algorithm. It is also claimed that the resulting local application of negation and modalities is close to the behaviour of negation and adverbs in natural language. Above all, the use of colours restores a unique level in semantic networks. These flat semantic networks are appealing to social scientists because they avoid information redundancy and improve connectivity in the network. Two methods of textual analysis that can take direct benefit from semantic networks (semantic paths distributions and texts clustering) are presented. However, flat semantic networks that remain semantically correct are perhaps even more interesting because they may bridge standard networks with connectionnist networks. In such a perspective, Coloured Conceptual Graphs represent an intermediate but promising step.     

Use of typologies for ‘measuring’ self-identity change: methodological issues in longitudinal qualitative research

A microsociological research which traced the experience of 120 women (during five years of psychotherapy they undertook to resolve existential problems) used different typologies in the organisation of qualitative data. The major typology, of psychosocial identity was of importance not only in data-ordering, but also in appreciating the changes occurring to individuals during the psychotherapeutic process. The other two typologies were essentially of sensitising concepts but also represented structural social elements and broadened the microfocus to include features of four different therapies and therapeutic communities. This article discusses the methodological implications of this technical approach to ordering qualitative data, the actual research procedure used in the creation of the typologies and, in brief outline, their content.     

The transition from central planning to a market economy: A computable general equilibrium model

This paper develops a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the transition from a central planned economy to a market economy. The model is an extension of Wellisz and Findlay's (1986) model of the Soviet second economy. By distinguishing alternative assumptions about the disposition of the government budget, two model variants — the activist and non-activist — are analyzed. Equilibria of these model variants are computed for various parameter specifications of the Kantorovich ray, which represents the stringency of central planners' direction of the economy. The paper shows that increasing efficiency of the private sector, while it reduces the size of government subsidies to the state sector, does not necessarily increase the net government budget.     

Technical Inefficiency Effects Among Paddy Farmers in the Villages of the ‘Office du Niger’, Mali,West Africa

A stochastic frontier production function incorporating a model for technical inefficiency effects (Battese and Coelli, 1995) is applied to field data on paddy farmers from 29 villages in the Office du Niger in Mali. Four conventional factors (land, labor, fertilizer and machinery) are considered as inputs of production. The technical inefficiency effects in the stochastic frontier were related to firm-specific variables, institutional factors, social organisation, ecological considerations and health factors. Data were obtained from an economic survey conducted during two consecutive agricultural seasons (1989 and 1990) on 844 farms of the Office du Niger. The null hypothesis of the absence of technical inefficiency effects was rejected. A supportive institutional environment and a coherent organisation of land use were the best correlates of technically efficiency. The social environment was also found to contribute to technical efficiency of the paddy farmers: within the village, the greater the degree of ethnic cohesion, the greater the efficiency of the farmers. Health status of households had an effect in that healthy families tended to be more technically efficient than unhealthy ones. Farmers with more extensive sorghum cultivation were less efficient as paddy farmers. These results may help agricultural policy makers formulate strategies. Technical efficiency may be improved by intensifying agricultural training regarding one specific crop and, through the control of parasitic diseases which place a burden on family households.     

Nash equilibrium reconsidered and an option for maximin

In this paper we will discuss some peculiarities of Nash equilibrium which are at odds with its standard applications: (a) the underlying dynamic interpretation, (b) the incentive independency if equilibria are mixed, and (c) the unprofitability if equilibrium and maximin are mixed and the game is 2-by-2. Maximin is proposed as an alternative solution concept in relevant situations.Institute of Economics, University of Hamburg, Von-Melle-Park 5, D-2000 Hamburg 13, Germany. This is a substantially revised version of the paper Anti-Nash and an Option for Maximin (Institute of Economics, University of Aarhus, Memo 1989-16), which the author presented at the Fourth Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Augsburg, September 2–4, 1989.     

A note on randomized response models for quantitative data

Standard randomized response (RR) models deal primarily with surveys which usually require a yes or a no response to a sensitive question, or a choice for responses from a set of nominal categories. As opposed to that, Eichhorn and Hayre (1983) have considered survey models involving a quantitative response variable and proposed an RR technique for it. Such models are very useful in studies involving a measured response variable which is highly sensitive in its nature. Eichhorn and Hayre obtained an unbiased estimate for the expectation of the quantitative response variable of interest. In this note we propose a procedure which uses a design parameter (controlled by the experimenter) that generalizes Eichhorn and Hayres results. Such a procedure yields an estimate for the desired expectation which has a uniformly smaller variance.Acknowledgements We are grateful to two referees for their valuable and constructive comments.     

Economic planning and information

Conclusions The central arguments for national planning put forward during the early part of this century were decisively refuted by Mises and Hayek during the 1920s and 30s (see Hayek, 1948). General equilibrium theory of the 1960s provides no more adequate justification for the version of indicative planning proposed in this article. It is disappointing to see that no account has been taken of the important recent developments in economic theory and analysis which provide a more realistic basis on which to compare the private market and government agencies.There is no doubt that the country's future growth and development depend upon identifying more profitable investiment opportunities in the British economy (p. 140). There is equally no doubt that an infinite number of such opportunities exist. But how to identify them? Regrettably, Paul Hare does not tell us.     

The economic transformation of Eastern Europe: the case of Poland

This article identifies the main features of Poland's radical transition to capitalism-stabilization program, trade liberalization, and privatization reform. The shock therapy adopted by Poland in 1991 is presented as the most effective approach, though not without political risk. In fact, the major threat to Poland's transition process is the emergence of well organized interest groups putting increasing demand on the government to relax financial restrictions and re-open large-scale subsidization. These political pressures have already caused a slowdown in the privatization program, so that there is a possibility of the renewal of rapid inflation. Several methods for accelerated privatization, including the distribution of vouchers and setting up investment funds to manage portfolios of shares, are discussed in detail.     

Trade liberalisation and endogenous growth: Some evidence for Turkey

This paper examines the impact of trade liberalisation on the long-run economic development as measured by the real GDP per capita in Turkey. Based on the endogenous growth theory, we employ bivariate and multivariate cointegration analyses to test the long-run relationship among the relevant variables. Results for Turkey suggest a stable, joint long-run relationship among real GDP per capita, an index of trade liberalisation, human and physical capital in accordance with the endogenous growth theory. Statistically significant error-correction terms provide further evidence that those variables are indeed cointegrated. This also implies causal effects.     

Globals,mutables, and immutables: a new look at the micro-macro link

Past work on the micro-macro problem has often been divisive, with scholars championing either the micro or macro position, and arguing against the other. This work has often stressed the uniqueness of one position (e.g., emphasizing emergence in the macro position or reduction to the micro). There is a recent resurgence of interest, with emphasis on cooperative and integrative attempts to forge a micro-macro link. A review of the literature shows both micro, subjective approaches to the problem, as well as macro-structural approaches, but with an emphasis on the micro. The bulk of the analyses are qualitative. There is a small literature on external or nonsubjective (including quantitative) approaches. The purpose of the paper is to add to the external literature in a way that will complement the qualitative approaches while also being sensitive to the relation between theory and method. The concepts of global macro variables, immutable and mutable micro variables, and immutable distributions are presented. The mutable distribution is the true external link between micro and macro. The mutable distributions have dual micro-macro properties, being formed from the allocation of the individuals in the population into the positions of the respective globals. An individual's position in the multidimensional global structure depends upon his or her particular set of mutable characteristics.Preparation of this paper was partially supported by UCLA Academic Senate Research Grant No. 2884.     

Exponential convergence properties of linear estimators under exponential and uniform distribution

Summary Certain measures of asymptotic efficiency of test statistics are based on exponential convergence properties of the underlying error probabilities (Bahadur-, Hodges-Lehmann-efficiency). From a general large deviation theorem, that is specified to weighted sums of independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables, such exponential convergence properties are derived for test statistics which are linear functions of order statistics of i.i.d. random variables under exponential and uniform distribution. For that purpose some smoothness-conditions for the weights have to be established. In a series of examples it is shown that these conditions are fulfilled for certain robust linear estimators of location or scale parameters. With the help of some numerical results two of them, namely Winsorized and trimmed mean, are compared with regard to the asymptotic relative efficiency against each other.

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Zusammenfassung Bestimmte asymptotische Effizienzbegriffe für Tests basieren auf einem exponentiellen Konvergenzverhalten der zugrundeliegenden Fehlerwahrscheinlichkeiten (Bahadur-, Hodges-Lehmann-Effizienz). Mit Hilfe eines allgemeinen Satzes üver Wahrscheinlichkeiten großer Abweichungen, der spezialisiert wird auf gewichtete Summen unabhängiger, identisch verteilter (i.i.d.) Zufallsvariablen mit momenterzeugenden Funktionen, wird ein solches exponentielles Konvergenzverhalten nachgewiesen für Linearkombinationen von order statistics von i.i.d. Zufallsvariablen unter Exponential- und Rechteckverteilung. Dazu sind bestimmte Bedingungen an die Gewichte zu stellen. In einigen Beispielen wird gezeigt, daß solche Gewichtsbedingungen für eine Reihe von robusten Schätzern erfüllt sind. Zwei spezielle, nämlich das Winsorisierte und getrimmte Mittel, werden mit Hilfe einiger numerischer Ergebnisse hinsichtlich ihrer asymptotischen Effizienz miteinander verglichen.

     

Über die Anzahl von Zufallspunkten mit typ-gleichem nächsten Nachbarn und einen multivariaten Zwei-Stichproben-Test

Summary For independents-variate samplesX ₁, ...,X _m i.i.d.f. (.),Y ₁, ...,Y _n i.i.d. g. (.), where the densitiesf (.),g (.) are assumed to be continuous on their respective sets of positivity, consider the numberT _m,n of pointsZ of the pooled sample (which are either of typeX or of typeY) such that the nearest neighbor ofZ is of the same type asZ. We show that, as , independently of (.). An omnibus test for the two sample problem f(.)g(.) orf(.)g(.)? may be obtained by rejecting the hypothesisf(.)g(.) for large values ofT _m,n.     

Modelling structural change using the Kalman Filter

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States, yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable true economy to be discovered. This paper explores the consequences of endemic structural change for econometric modelling by considering the model reduction problem when the data generation process is itself undergoing structural change. The resultant econometric model, it is argued will generally exhibit time varying parameters where much of the structural change is reflected in the changing parameters. The use of Kalman Filters to estimate such changing parameters is then discussed and a range of specifications which allow the inclusion of different forms of identifying information is given. The paper then illustrates these ideas by modelling the determination of the black market exchange rate in Poland over the period from the mid 1970s to the early 1990s.This paper was written as part of the A.C.E. project Methodology, Econometrics and Understanding the East European Economy in Transition.     

Interaction of human and physical capital in a model of endogenous growth

A model of development is presented where growth is initially driven by physical capital accumulation, as in the neoclassical model. After a critical level of physical capital is reached, the economy takes off and enters a stage of sustained growth driven by human capital accumulation. The link between these two stages is provided by the assumption that private incentives for human capital accumulation increase with the average levels of human and physical capital. At the early stages of development, these incentives are low so the level of human capital stays stagnant until sufficient physical capital is accumulated. Other results are that some economies may reach a steady state of physical capital before a take-off is possible. This is especially likely for economies in which agents have low savings propensities. Such economies remain stuck in a no-growth equilibrium forever. Economies that do grow may experience endogenous cycles if the return to investment in human capital is sufficiently increasing in the level of physical capital.     

The pragmatic dimension

Arguments are delivered against the proposition that choosing a qualitative or a quantitative research method is completely paradigmatically determined and that these methods cannot be justifiably triangulated or combined because of the incompatibility of their associated paradigms.Social scientific paradigms (such as the empirical-analytical, interpretative and critical paradigms) do not appear logically compelling incompatible with respect to ontological or epistemological aspects as is often stated. In addition, paradigms and methods are mutually underdetermined. This is so. because the linkages of paradigms with methods are partly based on a kind of Wahlverwandtschaft and because these linkages seem partly to be of a psychological and sociological nature.     

Foreign trade in the kaleckian perspective plan

In Kalecki's outline for a perspective plan a distinction is drawn between demand-determined and supply-constrained industries. Foreign trade operates on a vent-for-surplus principle whereby supply industries are run at full capacity and excess supplies (demands) are exported (imported). This policy is assessed using a simple two-sector model and is given only qualified support. Modifications to his plan procedure are accordingly suggested.     

Qualitative sampling in a multi-method survey

Because method triangulation is able to reduce disadvantages of one method by using another one, it has been demanded in social science for many years. Nevertheless, it is seldom applied in practical research. To show the importance of multi-method-research for improving the results of social science investigation, one possibility of method triangulation and its execution is presented. Out of a representative youth survey about sexual behavior and AIDS-prevention with 1500 German respondents a sample of 15–20 respondents for depth-interviews is extracted by combining clusteranalysis and random-sampling. The aim of that multi-method procedure is to get more detailed information about subgroup specific topics and problems. At first the paper shows the necessity of method triangulation and its application in our survey. After that the procedure and the results of the clusteranalysis are presented. In the last chapter the sampling and its results are discribed and discussed.     

Cost-Output Relation,Technological Progress,and Clinical Activity Mix of US Hospital Pharmacies

The fairly recent discovery and growing use of costly, revolutionary biotechnology drugs (e.g., GM-CSFs) in hospitals represent a major technical innovation in clinical pharmacy intervention. This paper models the translog production cost impacts of ten distinct clinical pharmacy tasks including pharmacokinetics, consultations with MDs, monitoring drug interactions,..., and presents results on decomposed technical change, economies of scope, scale economies, total factor productivity, and the alternatively defined pairwise factor substitution possibilities. The model was fitted to 1981–1990 time-series/cross-sectional data of US hospital pharmacies (source: Eli-Lilly Co.®). Zellner's ISURE (Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations) system estimates reveal a non-homothetic underlying technology with biased and pure technical change effects dominating scale-augmentation. Certain clinical tasks increase costs but are cost-saving if jointly produced with selective others. One of the largest and statistically significant economies of scope estimates is between monitoring drug interactions and consultations with MDs. Cost implications of findings are given in light of the recent trends in hospital pharmacy clinical activities, related professional health manpower, and piecemeal health policy reforms.