经济内生增长中的货币超中性

本文在希德劳斯基分析框架下，利用内生增长模型分析了货币增长对在经济稳定状态下资本存量和消费水平的影响。     

我国货币供给、经济增长与劳动力转移的实证研究

通过建立VAR模型分析1978年以来,我国经济转型过程中货币供给、经济增长与劳动力转移的经验数据得出:货币供给、经济增长与劳动力转移及转移速度对来自不同的正交反应冲击是不同的,且来自货币供给对劳动力转移产生正影响,但对劳动力转移速率产生先正后负再正渐微的影响.     

货币供应量对越南经济增长的影响——基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数分析

本文研究越南货币供应量与经济增长之间的关系,选用越南1990-2014年的相关数据,基于VAR模型,通过协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析进行了实证研究,结果表明货币供应量与经济增长存在长期均衡关系,两者之间存在单向因果关系,货币供应量能够促进经济增长,而经济增长的提高没有促进货币供应量的增加.     

经济虚拟化过程中货币、经济增长与通货膨胀之间关系的仿真模拟北大核心

文章从系统科学的角度研究了经济虚拟化过程中货币、经济增长与通货膨胀之间的关系,构建了美国宏观经济系统动力学模型,通过改变经济系统中的信用扩张倍数,对不同情境下重要指标的变动趋势进行了分析。结果显示:GDP随着信贷扩张的增加而增速提高,但其变动幅度却与信贷扩张规模增速呈反向关系;M2变动趋势与信贷扩张保持一致;CPI短时间呈现先上升后下降的趋势,在长期呈现上升的趋势;银行的信贷扩张在长期呈现规模递增,且随着经济虚拟化程度的提升,新增资金会更多地流向银行与虚拟经济部门。     

论货币、通货膨胀与经济增长

货币既是推动经济增长的动力,又是诱发通货膨胀的直接原因。通货膨胀在短期内能刺激经济的增长,从长期看有害无利。治理通货膨胀要继续实现稳健的货币政策,经济增长要摒弃依靠货币推动的速度型方式,转移到效益型轨道上来,这就必须转变投资观念,严格控制投资规模,努力提高投资效益。本文拟从货币、通胀与经济增长的内在机理出发,探讨抑制通货膨胀、稳定经济增长的有效途径。     

论人力资本与经济增长

人力资本已作为经济增长的第一大投入要素,人力资本的发展不仅是推动经济增长方式转变的根本动力,而且是经济发展的关键因素。文章在对人力资本效应分析的基础上,通过对经济增长模型的分析,论证了人力资本是经济增长的关键因素,对经济增长有巨大贡献,并在模型分析基础上提出了关于提高人力资本的政策性意见。     

通货膨胀传导机制研究——基于货币供给和经济增长的视角

通货膨胀管理是宏观经济的重要内容,通货膨胀、货币供给和经济增长之间互相影响、互相制约。本文利用中国2005年1月～2010年3月度数据构建模型分析,得出结论:(1)短期影响消费者物价指数的因素主要是国内生产总值增长率,长期控制消费者物价指数上涨的要素主要是货币的供给;(2)宏观经济形势稳定条件下通货膨胀、货币供给和经济增长之间具有长期协整关系;(3)消费者物价指数对自身的波动具有较强的累积效果,经济增长贡献了消费者物价指数波动的55%,而广义货币的这一比例仅为18%;(4)中国货币收入的真实需求弹性为1.152,这一数据远高于发达国家的水平。文章最后给出了相应的政策性建议。     

中国经济防范危机对策

目前,中国经济增速正趋于合理减速. 由于过去几年经济改革的滞后,又由于新近出台的一些改革措施其效应的体现,还要有一定的时滞,因此当前的经济增长轨迹总体上还一时难以摆脱由货币总量所左右的局面.但是,尽管增长轨迹未变,经济增速与货币的关系却已发生了明显的变化.因此,要看清楚未来经济的走势,是泡沫破灭、复苏反弹,还是降中趋稳,已不能仅仅根据前4年经济数据周期波动循环的特征来分析.恰恰相反,在多年累积的由过多货币投放所形成的中国泡沫经济中,货币调控的边际效应已发生明显下降的变化.今后货币政策稍有不慎,中国经济走势将会发生意想不到的变化,这是分析当前中国经济所必须持有的重要视角.     

我国经济发展中金融深化效用的实证分析

本文在金融效率的经济增长模型基础上建立经济计量模型，验证了我国金融深化因素对经济增长的效用。通过实证分析笔者认为，积极发展非银行金融对我国的经济发展具有十分重要的作用，同时要改善我国的货币结构，逐步实行利率市场化和放开汇率，由市场来调节资金的供求。     

虚拟经济与货币市场

按照传统的金融理论,可以按信用期限在一年以上或以下将金融市场分为资本市场与货币市场两大类,也可将前者称为中长期资金市场,而将后者称为短期资金市场。在资本市场中有权益融资（equity financing）和负债融资（debt fi-nancing）两种融资方式,而在货币市场中则主要是负债融资。但是随着金融机构混业经营的普及、国际金融市场集成程度的提高,以及金融创新的迅速发展,传统的资本市场与货币市场之间的界限日益模糊。1998年,为了研究东亚金融危机问题,笔者曾提出了一种虚拟经济的理论,现拟试用这一理论来探讨货币市场的有关问题。     

城市经济发展中特色经济与集群经济的关系--兼论城市园区经济建设

特色经济与集群经济现在是城市经济发展过程中两个彰显的概念,二者从不同角度阐释了城市经济发展的基本要求.特色经济反映的是城市经济的质,而集群经济反映的是城市经济的量.没有特色的城市经济缺乏活力和竞争力,没有集群的特色经济则对城市经济的带动作用就微乎其微.二者的有机统一才是最具活力和竞争力的城市经济单元.     

Pollution and informal economy

In this study, we investigate the relationship between the size of the informal economy and the level of environmental pollution/energy use. To this end, we first use different indicators of environmental pollution along with a measure of energy use intensity in a panel dataset consisting of 152 countries over the period 1999–2009 and empirically examine the relationship between pollution and the shadow economy. The estimation results show that there is an inverse-U relationship between the size of the informal economy and environmental pollution, that is, small and large sizes of the informal economy are associated with lower environmental pollution and medium levels of informality are associated with higher levels of environmental pollution. Next, we build a two sector dynamic general equilibrium model to suggest an economic mechanism for this observation. Our model identifies two channels through which informality might affect environmental pollution: The scale effect, whereby a larger (smaller) informal economy size is associated with a lower (higher) level of environmental pollution, and the deregulation effect, whereby a larger (smaller) informal economy is associated with higher (lower) pollution levels. As these two effects work in opposite directions, the changing relative strength of one with respect to the informal sector size creates the inverted-U relationship between pollution indicators and informality.     

区域经济与全球化

党的十六届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于完善社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定》指出,要“适应经济全球化和科技进步加快的国际环境”,全面提高对外开放水平。在经济全球化步伐明显加快的今天,对外开放就意味着积极参与经济全球化的进程,以主动的姿态把握机遇和迎接挑战,这是我们党在深刻认识世界经济发展趋势的基础上所作出的重大抉择。因此,我们要紧紧抓住重要战略机遇,积极参与经济全球化的进程,进一步提高加入世贸组织后的应对能力,     

World economy

Compared to three months ago, we have revised up our global GDP growth forecast for this year from −4.5% to −4.2% on the back of evidence showing a faster than anticipated recovery around the middle of the year. That said it has become clear than the expansion has already entered a second, slower growth phase. With many economies, particularly in Europe, needing to reimpose some restrictions on activity in the light of rising Covid-19 cases, we have lowered our forecast for global GDP growth next year from 5.8% to 5.2%.     

World economy

Although uncertainties have clearly increased this year and pose downside risks to growth, the latest batch of timely activity indicators suggests that in the shorter term the global economy is resilient to these worries. Given this, we see global GDP growing by 3.1% this year and 2.9% in 2019, just 0.1pp lower than our forecast three months ago and similar to last year's 3% increase.     

World economy

Following estimated GDP growth of 2.3% in 2016 – which was the lowest since 2009 – we expect the global economy to accelerate this year. We forecast GDP growth at 2.6% in 2017 and then see it accelerating further to 2.9% in 2018.     

World economy

The dire economic data for the lockdown period confirms that the coronavirus pandemic has caused unprecedented and widespread damage to the global economy. We now expect the global economy to have contracted by over 9% in the first half of 2020, while growth should rebound sharply in the second half of the year, we now expect GDP to shrink by 4.5% in 2020 as a whole, much weaker than the 2.8% contraction we anticipated three months ago.     

World economy

Financial market moves in recent months suggest that there is increasing concern about a substantial global growth slowdown or even a recession. But we continue to see this as an over‐reaction to the weakening economic data; while the downside risks to the global outlook have clearly risen, our baseline forecast shows GDP growth of 2.7% in both 2019 and 2020, little changed from three months ago and only a touch weaker than the likely 3% rise in 2018.     

World economy

The ongoing soft tone of the latest data confirms that the global economic slowdown continues and the risk that this year will see the weakest GDP growth of the postcrisis period is rising. But with policymakers now expected to turn dovish words into actions soon, we still think recession risks remain low.     

World economy

Further evidence that the global economy ended last year on a high note is consistent with our view that world GDP growth in 2018 will be around 3.2%. This would be a little better than the likely rise of 3% in 2017 and the best annual outturn since 2011.