North–South Lending with Moral Hazard and Repudiation Risk

The paper shows that the joint presence of moral hazard and repudiation risk generates an important interaction effect. In order to provide the proper incentives to borrowers, the optimal financial contract under moral hazard calls for all available resources to be paid to the lender in the event of a poor realization for output. Repudiation risk limits the size of this transfer, as the debtor has the option to default. This upper bound on the resource transfer exacerbates the moral hazard problem, reducing lending and the equilibrium level of investment and output.     

MORAL HAZARD,RISK AVERSION AND EFFICIENCY

This note revisits the classic moral‐hazard model, but assumes that the output distribution has moving support and punishments are limited. The results show that the principal can implement an efficient solution if the agent is sufficiently risk averse.     

基于风险转移模型的次贷危机传导研究

利用金融体系风险转移模型及其对风险分担和金融稳定性的影响的理论分析了美国次贷危机中的风险分担和风险传导。分析表明,银行体系的激进性贷款行为和恶意转移风险的道德风险促成了次贷危机的生成与传导;而金融市场的衍生产品创新在转移和分散风险的同时,也放大了美国次贷危机的风险。     

On the first-order approach in principal-agent models with hidden borrowing and lending

We provide sufficient conditions for the validity of the first-order approach for two-period dynamic moral hazard problems where the agent can save and borrow secretly. The first-order approach is valid if the following conditions hold: (i) the agent has non-increasing absolute risk aversion utility (NIARA), (ii) the output technology has monotone likelihood ratios (MLR), and (iii) the distribution function of output is log-convex in effort (LCDF). Moreover, under these three conditions, the optimal contract is monotone in output. We also investigate a few possibilities of relaxing these requirements.     

Workers' compensation: Determining a feasible payment structure in a regulatory environment

Moral hazard complicates the design of an optimal benefit structure in a regulated social insurance program such as workers' compensation. We discuss the type of empirical information necessary to set optimal benefit levels in the presence of moral hazard. Since we present trends in indemnity and medical expenditures that indicate the presence of claims rate moral hazard, we develop and estimate a model of this type of moral hazard. We find evidence of moral hazard effects that are roughly consistent with those found elsewhere in the literature. We also present the first direct estimates of the impact of benefits on the output of the firm. We find that an increase in real benefits significantly decreases the output of the firm. This is consistent with notion that higher benefits induce more jobless spells and increase production costs using skilled labor. We close by illustrating how these estimates can be used to provide information on the feasible benefit schedule, given the presence of moral hazard.     

Progressive Taxation, Moral Hazard, and Entrepreneurship

This paper considers the general equilibrium and welfare effects of a linear progressive income tax with entrepreneurship and moral hazard. A competitive intermediation sector diversifies risk associated with entrepreneurial activity, but full risk consolidation is prevented by moral hazard. Since effort is not observable, risk bearing of entrepreneurs is required for incentive reasons. The extent of risk consolidation is endogenously explained. We find that a nonredistributive tax is neutral. A progressive tax always impairs entrepreneurship while the effect on welfare can be positive or zero, depending on the specification of moral hazard. Some results may also depend on the concrete formulation of preferences.     

Deposit insurance and moral hazard problem: the case of Turkish banking system

We investigate the effect of full deposit insurance introduced in 1994 on the financial performance of Turkish commercial banks. We construct a model, under reasonable assumptions, with deposit insurance where banks undertake excessive risk –?moral hazard risk. Empirical investigation using experimental design approach supports our moral hazard hypothesis. Our findings indicate that banks subject to the moral hazard behaviour show significant increases in foreign exchange position risk and deterioration in capital adequacy relative to their benchmark after introduction of full deposit insurance system. We relate this excessive risk-taking to the moral hazard behaviour by commercial banks. The research results indicate that complete deposit insurance system distorts the incentive structure of commercial banks and thus, prevents proper functioning of market discipline mechanism and leads to the taking excessive risk-taking.     

社会保险中的道德风险及其遏制

道德风险来自人的机会主义倾向，是给他人和社会带来不利后果的人为风险。道德风险在社会保险领域发生的频率最高、分布最广、造成损失最大、防范难度也最高。被保险人试图利用自己掌握的信息优势，在追求自身效益最大化的同时做出损害保险人利益的行为。道德风险在社会保险的所有项目上都存在相应的表现及危害。针对社会保险中道德风险产生的原因，应从完善社会保险立法、增强查处力度、设计约束与激励并重的机制、建立信息对称机制及诚信自律机制等方面遏制社会保险的道德风险。     

CAPITAL CONTROL AND DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES: A GENERALIZED MODEL

This article addresses the question of capital control (inflow) and its varied effect on interest rates and real-side economy. The moral hazard problem causes interest rates to increase as a function of external debt. Decreased capital inflow (external debt) can reduce moral hazard and outweigh the effect of costly capital transactions, with capital control decreasing interest rates and increasing output. This result runs counter to other theoretical works on capital control. The policy implication is that a government can generate national gains from capital inflow control by prohibiting new external debt (borrowing from abroad). With old debt retired and no new borrowing from abroad, external debt is reduced. This will reduce the moral hazard problem and lead to a drop in interest rates and an increase in output. (JEL F32 , F41 , E43 )     

Taxation of uncertain business profits,private risk markets and optimal allocation of risk

In this paper we explore what happens if the government bears some of the risk through a profit tax when the risk sharing in the venture capital market is incomplete due to non-observability of effort and moral hazard. If the external equity investors can enforce exclusive contracts with the entrepreneurs, the risk relief through a profit tax will lead to too much insurance and too low effort as compared with a second best optimal solution. Bond and Devereux [Bond, S.R. and Devereux, M.P. (1995). On the design of a neutral business tax under uncertainty. Journal of Public economics, 58, 57–71.] show that a proportional profit tax would be neutral in the absence of moral hazard. In the presence of moral hazard we demonstrate that the tax may affect the risk shifting through the market, in which case the premise for the neutrality result will no longer hold.     

Compensation Convexity without Utility Restriction

We develop an optimal contract model on the use of stock options for chief executive officer compensation under the Mirrlees–Rogerson moral hazard framework. We find that convexity, as know as, the use of stock options, can arise with a broader range of agent utility functions than allowed by Hemmer et al. ( 2000 ). We characterise the necessary conditions regarding the behaviour of the agent's marginal risk tolerance for both the concavity and convexity cases of the likelihood‐ratio function. We find stock options need to be used more intensively, when the agent displays a higher marginal risk tolerance and when the realised task output is higher.     

An endogenous structural credit risk model incorporating with moral hazard and rollover risk

In this paper, we embed optimal contracting between the manager and equity holders into Leland-Toft endogenous structural credit risk model to study the impact of moral hazard on the firm's credit risk with rollover debts. Our model quantitatively shows that the agency costs induced by the moral hazard can endogenously have significant impacts on credit spreads, besides the costs of rolling over the maturing debts of the firm. It originates from the conflicts that these two costs should be covered by equity holders while both the manager and maturing debt holders are still paid in full. The numerical results show that the credit spread with the agency costs of moral hazard is larger than the one without the agency costs. Thus, the moral hazard could be used to explain “credit spread puzzle” as an endogenous factor. The explicit formulae of the equity value, the debt value, and the endogenous default boundary are also given.     

商业医疗保险中的道德风险防范与控制

道德风险在各种保险市场都存在,但在医疗保险市场却复杂得多。道德风险使医疗费用快速不合理地增长,过度消耗有限资源,给社会造成了极大的浪费,同时还恶化了医患关系,降低了社会诚信水平。分析了我公司9 876例案件中出现的道德风险及采取的防范措施。     

Futures market: contractual arrangement to restrain moral hazard in teams

Holmstrom (Bell J Econ 13:324?C340, 1982) argues that a principal is required to restrain moral hazard in a team: wasting output in certain states is required to enforce efficient effort, and the principal is a commitment device for the waste. Under competition in commodity and team-formation markets, I extend his model à la Prescott and Townsend (Econometrica 52(1):21?C45, 1984) to show that competitive contracts can exploit the futures market to transfer output across states instead of wasting it. Thus, the futures market takes the place of a principal as a commitment device. Exploiting the duality of linear programming, I characterize the market environment and the contractual agreements for incentive-constrained efficiency.     

国有企业道德风险评价指标体系构建——基于声誉效应的研究

日益突出的国有企业道德风险问题越来越受到关注。成为我国政府亟待解决的问题。基于声誉效应,从管理者个人层面和企业层面,按照目标层、准则层、指标层构建国有企业道德风险评价指标体系。旨在反映管理者和企业的道德风险水平,从而约束管理者行为并激励其努力工作,为监管部门的工作提供依据。这对于降低国有企业道德风险,促进国有企业蓬勃发展具有重要的现实意义。     

金融危机背景下信用违约互换道德风险研究

2007年爆发的金融危机中,信用违约互换蕴含的道德风险使其成为危机发生和发展的助推器。本文通过构建信用违约互换交易的合约设计模型,研究该产品的作用以及控制其道德风险的最优合约设计。分析发现:交易双方资金成本差异决定了信用违约互换具有优化配置信用风险、提高银行收益和拓宽市场主体投资渠道等有利作用,但信用违约互换交易会降低银行监督信贷资产的努力水平,导致信用风险积聚和增加。通过引入不完全保护机制,我们给出了有效控制信用违约互换道德风险的最优合约。本文的研究结论为防范和控制信用衍生品隐含的道德风险提供了借鉴,有利于促进其发挥分散信用风险等积极作用。     

Entrepreneurial drain under moral hazard: A high-yield sector curse?

We describe a two-sector, general-equilibrium model of productive sorting under output risk and incomplete information. Risk-neutral (entrepreneurial) individuals can either produce alone, or - acting as employers/insurers - team up with risk-averse (non-entrepreneurial) individuals. Although the latter option has the potential to generate more surplus, when effort is unobservable and risk is high, the moral hazard problem in mixed matches may be too severe for mixing to be attractive to both risk-aversion types, leading to a segregated equilibrium in which risk-averse individuals select low-risk, low-yield activities. An increase in the profitability of the riskier sector can then trigger a switch from a mixed to a segregated equilibrium and cause aggregate output to fall. Evidence from a panel of non-OECD countries - showing that the presence of uninsured, small-scale mining firms has a negative impact on the relationship between natural resource exports and agrarian productivity - suggests that this ‘high-yield sector curse’ might be present in natural resource-rich, low-income countries.     

我国汽车保险道德风险博弈研究——基于投保人道德风险角度

从投保人的视角,利用博弈分析,研究我国车险市场存在的道德风险,力图通过为保险公司建立有效的调查机制、惩罚体系,减少车险公司因投保人一方的道德风险所引起的损失,增加车险的盈利能力。     

Risk Pooling in the Presence of Moral Hazard

The size of an insurance pool that minimizes average risk per policy is derived for cases in which moral hazard offsets the benefits of pooling.     

产权结构、存款保险与银行竞争——基于Bertrand模型的研究

本文通过比较双头寡占下价格竞争的纯粹寡占模型和混合寡占模型,主要讨论了国有商业银行对存款保险制度的建立是否存在影响,以及不同存款保险制度对国有商业银行经营利润的影响。研究发现:(1)外部风险控制不能完全代替银行内部风险控制。(2)风险调整存款保险制度与固定费率存款保险制度相比,会弱化道德风险,但无法完全避免。(3)当国有商业银行完全追求社会福利最大化时,无论采取固定费率存款保险制度还是风险调整存款保险制度,均不影响国有商业银行的利润。(4)当银行贷款利率和存款保险定价合理时,如果不考虑信息不对称和代理问题,产权结构不影响银行的风险选择。