2012年海南省宏观经济运行分析

2012年,海南省经济增长呈现逐季回升态势,投资高速增长,消费、进出口、工业均保持较快增长。与此同时,全省金融运行平稳,存贷款均新增较多。但在当前较为复杂的外部经济环境下,全省经济增长面临的压力依然较大,结构调整任务依然艰巨。2013年,海南省将牢牢把握"稳中求进"的政策基调,不断扩大需求,加快经济结构调整,促进经济又好又快发展。     

2007年河南省金融运行报告

2007年,河南省金融运行保持平稳。存贷款增势减缓,直接融资比重上升;证券、保险较快发展,金融市场交易活跃;金融改革顺利推进,金融业整体效益全面提高,金融生态环境建设取得新进展。2008年,在趋紧的宏观政策背景下,河南省将更加注重经济增长的质量和效益,更加注重经济、社会和谐发展和生态环境建设,进一步加强货币信贷政策与财政、产业、环保等政策的协调配合,努力改进窗口指导,优化信贷结构,推动金融创新,促进全省经济又好又快发展。     

2008年海南省经济金融运行分析

2008年,在国际国内经济形势复杂多变的背景下,海南省经济保持较快发展,金融运行稳健。本文全面介绍了年内全省经济金融运行的主要情况,并着重分析了金融危机对海南省经济金融的影响,并就危机背景下,如何保持海南省经济增长提出一些对策建议。     

当前企业项目投资初探

近些年来我国经济一直保持着平稳、较快的发展态势,但经济运行中出现的投资增长过快问题不容忽视。它主要表现在,固定资产投资增长过快,高污染、高排放、高能耗项目投资屡禁不止,各地、各部门和许多企事业单位乃至社会团体、部队、学校争相上项目,投资热情过高,这不利于长期保持经济又好又快发展,必须高度重视,     

新形势下金融支持欠发达地区经济发展的思考

去年以来,针对部分行业过热、投资需求过旺、信贷投放过快等问题,国家从土地、信贷、行业管理等方面综合实施宏观调控.经一年多的努力,现已取得初步的阶段性成效.其中,金融宏观调控在遏制固定资产投资过快增长、加强经济社会发展薄弱环节、促进经济平稳较快运行中发挥了重要作用.但由于宏观调控政策的普遍性与区域经济发展的特异性共存,导致宏观调控特别是金融宏观调控对欠发达地区的经济金融发展产生了较大的影响,并衍生了一些新问题.我们以丽水为个案进行了调查分析.     

对当前海南省经济金融运行反差现象的思考

近年来，在我国国民经济保持较快增长的大气候下，海南经济开始复苏，并逐步转入经济发展的“快车道”，投资和消费稳中趋旺，外贸出口稳步增长，社会总需求全面拉升，金融运行日趋平稳，然而由于前些年经济过热带给海南金融业的负面影响仍未完全消除，导致了当前海南经济金融运行中出现了一些反差现象。本通过分析造成这种反差现象的原因，对今后海南经济金融走势进行探讨。     

对梧州市金融理财业务发展现状的调查分析

近年来，银行金融理财产品业务作为国内金融创新的主力军，其在我国经济迅速增长和居民收入水平不断提高等有利条件的推动下发展较快，理财产品种类日益丰富，较好地满足了投资者不断增长的投资理财需求。然而，作为一种新兴的投资理财渠道，2008年相当部分银行理财产品出现了投资管理不善、收益欠佳等方面问题，     

2007年广西壮族自治区经济、金融运行报告

2007年，广西经济继续在周期性上升轨道上加速运行，呈现增长较快、结构优化、效益提高、民生改善的良好态势，主要经济指标增幅快于全国平均水平，全年生产总值增长14．9％，为1995年以来最高水平。三大需求共同增长，经济继续保持投资拉动型格局；三次产业协调发展，工业主导经济发展的作用明显增强；节能减排“百日行动”取得显著成效。但经济发展仍面临物价上涨较快、投资结构失衡、消费需求不足等问题。广西金融业保持良好发展态势，贷款总量突破4000亿元，有力支持了地方经济发展。银行业稳健运行，证券业加快发展，保险业稳步发展，金融市场交易活跃，直接融资大幅上升，金融改革加快推进，“引银入桂”成效明显，金融生态持续向好。     

我国当前经济金融形势分析与政策建议

经济金融运行的主要特点 宏观经济呈现平稳较快发展态势。在2004年对钢铁、水泥、电解铝等过热发展行业进行重点调控的基础上，2005年上半年国家针对房地产投资规模过大、房地产价格上涨过快以及出口结构不合理等问题进行了重点调控，取得了明显成效，国民经济总体上已经进入平稳较快发展轨道，处于近几年来最好的发展时期。一些突出的问题得到缓解，过快增长的指标明显回落，     

2006年川贵云藏四省区经济金融运行分析及2007年趋势预测

2006年，川贵云藏四省区经济金融运行与全国基本一致，经历了一个从加速增长到增速回调的过程。上半年信贷增长迅猛、投资增长过快的势头在三季度得到初步控制，第四季度宏观调控成效进一步扩大，经济增长明显回调。整体上看四省区经济金融运行形势良好，预计2007年辖区经济增速会小幅回调，但仍将保持较高增长速度。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.