Technological and geographic heterogeneity in broadband markets: The challenge for regulation

When the telecommunications industry was liberalised in Europe and North America in the 1980s and 1990s, it inherited a legacy of monopoly providers whose footprint was national or multi-regional in its character. The regulatory framework, particularly that adopted in EU member states, reflected this pattern of relatively homogeneous deployment achieved, in part, by decades of cross-subsidised pricing and universal service goals. Perhaps because of this legacy, telecommunications regulators have often adopted the presumption that relevant markets are national in character, unless proven otherwise Although geographically-variegated regulatory remedies have been permitted (even in the face of allegedly national relevant markets) and adopted in many member states, many regulators have never done so, and overly cautious thresholds for permitting geographically based forbearance suggest a continued bias towards presuming national markets and remedies. We find that this presumption of uniformity and the tendency to aggregate geographic markets together is not supported by first principles of antitrust analysis, although there may have been strong practical reasons to apply this presumption in the past circumstances of the telecommunications and broadband industries.On the ground, however, there has arguably never been as much heterogeneity across geographies and across technological solutions that provide effective ultra-fast broadband speeds. Both technological (i.e., product market) and geographic heterogeneity are likely to increase with the advent of mobile 5G networks. With their deployment, a cautious regulatory stance towards geographic variation and a cautious regulatory stance towards inter-technology or inter-modal competition may result in regulation that could exceed what is required to ensure effective competition and could instead distort the incentives to enter of facilities-based actors. This may also result in higher-cost and inefficient investment. A more geographically varied and technologically agnostic regulatory framework may satisfy the principle of proportionate and focused regulation—with the possibility that the locus of regulation shifts from the access network to bottleneck facilities such as fibre, ducts and poles.This discussion is especially germane when one considers the highly speculative nature of forecasts and projections about future demand, and the competing claims of proponents of 5G and fibre. While there is some scepticism about the performance of mobile networks, we note that pure mobile and fixed 5G services may have synergies in deployment, and that the idea of competing with residential broadband services is a core strategy of very influential large-scale industry actors. In terms of a future research agenda, regulatory decisions could benefit from much more research into the relationship between domestic and global bandwidth constraints and their influence on development of software and application, as well as much more quantitative research by academics on the drivers of bandwidth demand. The risks associated with promoting investment that results in large-scale wasted resources should also be central to the regulatory agenda.     

The endless need for regulation in telecommunication: An explanation

Telecommunication services have existed as a legal monopoly nearly throughout its entire history. In 1998, telecom market liberalisation was achieved across the European Union (EU) through the introduction of competition among telephone services. Asymmetrical obligations were deemed necessary in order to compensate the market power of the former monopolist.As the evolution of asymmetrical regulation in Spain illustrates, obligations and the telecommunications operators subject to them increased with the regulatory framework established in 2002 in the EU. This new regulatory framework may continue to expand through the inclusion of functional separation as another possible asymmetrical obligation. In short, it seems that the regulatory pressure on the telecommunications industry is increasing, despite the lapse in time since the liberalisation of the industry.In this paper, a methodology developed by the Austrian School of Economics is applied in order to explain why the telecommunication market is subject to increasing regulation in Europe, rather than deregulation, after more than 10 years of liberalisation. In particular, Mises's theory of price control is used to explain the evolution of the regulation of local loop unbundling.     

Regulating audiotex: Lessons for the future development and oversight of electronic information and telecommunication services

Much can be learned from the audiotex experience regarding the future regulation of automated, recorded, live conversation and fax-based information and entertainment telecommunication services. Audiotex has raised a number of ‘carriage v content’ issues with significance for value-added multimedia services more generally. In addition, audiotex has led policy makers and practitioners alike to wrestle with the challenges posed to traditional, industry-focused regulatory regimes by the convergence of the telecommunications, broadcasting, computing and publishing industries which lies at the heart of the development of multimedia services. This paper draws heavily on events in two of the most developed domestic audiotex markets (the UK and the USA) in discussing four lessons which it is suggested both industry players and regulatory bodies take from the audiotex experience in considering the future development and oversight of electronic information and telecommunication services.     

Reaching out to remote and rural areas: Mobile satellite services and the role of Inmarsat

This paper analyses the problems faced by developing countries in extending telecommunications to remote and rural areas. It identifies some possible technical solutions using mobile satellite services, especially in specialized niche markets, but also ways in which telecommunications can be made more widely available to populations in rural and remote areas. Although means must be found to finance such development, the paper highlights the necessity of implementing policy and regulatory frameworks conducive to the availability of mobile satellite services.     

How will telecommunications bundles impact competition and regulatory analysis?

In this article, one makes two points about the impact of bundles on competition and regulatory policy. First, one argues that the growing importance of bundles requires an adjustment in the current framework of relevant product markets for individual services, and that the traditional tools of competition policy, namely the SSNIP test, can be adjusted to deal with these new circumstances. Second, one argues that the technological and behavioral changes, underlying the emergence of bundles, call for a shift of emphasis in regulatory policy from ensuring access to the incumbent’s fixed telecommunications network services to ensuring access to television content.     

Net neutrality and market power: The case of South Africa

Net neutrality rules have been implemented in many developed countries, often in response to concerns over network operator market power and potential blocking or throttling of content. However, developing countries typically have significantly lower levels of internet penetration and usage. Market power in respect of internet access looks quite different given that mobile is the predominant means of connection and there are often three or more mobile operators. In South Africa, there is a quasi-monopoly in the paid satellite broadcasting market and broadband providers zero-rating content from third parties (such as Netflix) may bring about more competition. We test the main theories of harm arising in the net neutrality debate, including network operator market power and exclusion among content providers using data on the number of announced prefixes and peers and IP addresses and considering examples of bundling and zero-rating conduct by operators. We find that net neutrality rules are less likely to be required in South Africa and other developing countries and that strict enforcement of such rules could in fact hinder competition in markets for content, telecommunications networks and other related markets.     

Strategic focus of incumbents in the European telecommunications industry: The cases of BT,Deutsche Telekom and KPN

This study investigates the internal and external strategic choices that telecommunications firms, operating in a dynamic network environment, make to adapt to changes and to respond quickly in order to create or to sustain their competitive advantage. In particular, in the European telecommunications industry incumbent firms have faced important challenges from new technologies, liberalization and the convergence of markets. The leading European telecommunications companies initially focused on new markets and new businesses, emphasizing their plans to become major players in relevant markets. However, after the telecommunications euphoria companies were more restrained due to their huge burden of debt and their market value. Through refocusing or restructuring, these companies have tried to streamline their businesses in order to restore their value and to improve their competitiveness. Insight into the specific strategic actions of traditional telecommunications companies in Europe to the recent developments in the industry is provided from the analysis of three leading traditional telecommunications companies: BT, Deutsche Telekom and KPN.     

Factors determining municipal broadband strategies across Europe

Recognizing that high-speed broadband connectivity emerges as a key element for growth, city authorities engage in fiber access deployments to empower their local communities in the digital economy. Currently, a growing number of municipal fiber projects are underway or planned while the international community and the telecommunications industry are yet undecided about the role and type of municipal intervention. This paper takes a holistic view of municipal broadband in Europe, aiming to understand the factors that determine municipal strategies in fixed Next-Generation Access (NGA) networks and the implications of municipal broadband to regulation and markets. The data suggests that the determining factors are (a) the engagement of public utilities; (b) the involvement of the private sector in joint infrastructure projects; (c) the local demand for retail and wholesale services; and (d) the institutional and regulatory framework at the European and national scale. The findings of the study indicate that (a) municipal initiatives are highly dependent on national factors, thus the resulting interventions fare strong resemblance within a single country, while they can be substantially different across national contexts; (b) current EU provisions for public involvement in broadband development stimulate municipal plans for large scale arrangements; and (c) national regulatory frameworks, that primarily address vertical integrated incumbents and nationwide markets, may need adjustments to handle emerging access monopolies of regional and city broadband infrastructures.     

Municipal electric utilities’ role in telecommunications services

Municipal electric utilities (MEUs) are increasingly expanding into telecommunications services. Such entry is interesting in several respects. First, MEUs marry two potential pathways for the growth of telecommunications access infrastructure and services: public ownership of last-mile facilities and electric power company expansion into telecommunications. Second, municipalities are key early adopters of next generation access technology in the form of both fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and broadband wireless (e.g., WiMax) systems. Third, MEUs are at the nexus of the debate over the proper role for local government in promoting broadband Internet access. Most homes in the United States are served by investor-owned local telephone and cable television providers, using company-owned wireline infrastructure. These providers have generally opposed municipal entry, arguing that it will crowd out private investment and represents an unfair and less efficient form of competition. A number of states have acted to limit—or in some cases—to promote such entry. Before engaging in this debate, it is necessary to have a clearer picture of the current state of municipal entry and the local demographic, cost, industry, and policy factors that influence its evolution. To address this need, this paper reports the results of an empirical analysis of MEUs that provide communications services to the public. This analysis shows that MEUs are more likely to offer such services if they also provide internal communication services to support their electric utility operations (scope economies); are relatively close to metropolitan areas (lower backhaul costs); are in markets with fewer competitive alternatives (cable modem and DSL service availability limited); and which are less encumbered by regulatory barriers to entry (in communities in states which do not restrict municipal entry into telecommunication services). Of these results, the competitive impacts are the least straight-forward to interpret, suggesting richer dynamics and avenues for further research.     

Structural separation versus vertical integration: Lessons for telecommunications from electricity reforms

Structural separation between network and retail functions is increasingly being mandated in the telecommunications sector to countervail the market power of incumbent operators. Experience of separation in the electricity sector offers insights for policy-makers considering telecommunications reforms. Despite apparent competitive benefits, the costs of contracting increase markedly when short-term focused electricity retail operations are separated from longer-term generation infrastructure investments (which require large up-front fixed and sunk cost components). The combination of mismatches in investment horizons, entry barriers, and risk preference and information asymmetries between generators and retailers leads to thin contract markets, increased hold-up risk, perverse wholesale risk management incentives, and bankruptcies. Direct parallels in the telecommunications sector indicate exposure to similar complications, intensifying many of the contractual risks arising from regulated access arrangements. Thus, as in electricity, competition between vertically integrated telecommunications providers would likely induce more efficient and sustainable investment and competition than would separation.     

Leveraging the EU regulatory framework to improve a layered policy model for US telecommunications markets

What is the best way to overhaul the current telecommunications legislative framework in the United States? This is an ongoing debate among telecom policy analysts and many others affected by the legacy of regulatory compromises that govern US telecommunications (and related information and media) industry sectors. This paper compares a Layered Model for US telecommunications policy with the regulatory framework adopted by the European Union. Both approaches focus on service characteristics rather than underlying technological traits.¹ It becomes clear that the Layered Model could be adopted to move away from sector-specific regulation, and could successfully use conventional market analysis criteria.     

Bagging bundle benefits in broadband and media mergers: Lessons from Sky/Vodafone for antitrust analysis

The historic precedents in telecommunications antitrust findings have tended towards finding harm to competition when network operators integrate downstream and bundle the provision of applications and services. The reason for this is that market power in network provision is thought to be extended into the applications market(s). More recently however, proposed mergers have been between telecommunications and media distribution firms, both of whom have some degree of market power, already sell their own services in bundles, and who may or may not have been offering combined bundles already via contractual agreements. Examples include Sky/Vodafone in New Zealand, and Time Warner/AT&T in the United States as well as Vodafone/Unitymedia in Germany and Media Capital/Altice in Portugal. These complex proposed arrangements pose challenges to competition authorities, whose legal and procedural rules and precedents, especially those defining the relevant markets affected by the merger or vertical integration activity, have been developed from the analysis of simpler cases. These precedents may not be sufficient to analyse current cases, characterized by multiple products catering to heterogeneous consumer preferences, and consumers are not constrained to buying only one variant of the products in each of the upstream and downstream markets.We illustrate the challenges by way of a case study of the proposed merger between Sky and Vodafone, declined by the New Zealand Commerce Commission in February 2017. Limitations in existing market definition processes and the evaluation of market power where bundling already occurs risk overlooking complex demand-side interactions that influence the profitability and efficiency of various structural and contractual strategic choices. We propose that classic merger and antitrust analysis based on econometric cost-benefit analysis can be augmented by using simulation and numerical analysis of a range of bundle offers expected to be relevant in decision-making. We develop a simple model and use it to illustrate how it may be used to inform broadband and content mergers, and other complex antitrust cases, such the assessment of the effects of two-sided markets and firm pricing decisions.     

Concentration of the mobile telecommunications markets and countries’ competitiveness

This study examines how the level of concentration of a country’s mobile telecommunications market affects its competitiveness. We created a unique database with information on 59 countries, which we used to perform several estimations including an instrumental variable approach to explain the degree of concentration in mobile phone markets. Our first and direct estimation shows that the higher the concentration in this industry, the lower the countries’ competitiveness. In order to understand this positive correlation, we provide two additional estimations. First, using an instrumental variable, we find that the concentration in mobile telecommunications market explains the use of information and communications technology (ICT). Moreover, we also find that the use of ICT is positively correlated with countries’ competitiveness. Thus, our results confirm that the mobile phone industry has positive spillover effects on countries’ competitiveness and demonstrate the benefits of policies designed to reduce concentration and market power in the industry.     

Good intentions,poor outcomes: Telecommunications reform in South Africa

As the first decade of democratic rule draws to a close in South Africa, this paper reviews the telecommunications reform process in terms of the performance of the sector against the twin national policy objectives of affordable access to communications services and accelerated development to meet the needs of a modern economy. It critiques the implementation of international reform models which have in practice tended to emphasise privatisation at the expense of other reform mechanisms—including competition and, in particular, regulatory measures. It argues that this has impacted negatively on affordable access and has inhibited market innovation.This paper identifies the root of the problem as the market structure. Designed around the vertically integrated incumbent operator, it induces inherently anti-competitive impertives that demands a resource-intensive regulatory response. The regulator has often not had the statutory powers, and seldom the capacity, to circumscribe the behaviour of the incumbent so that it does not impact negatively on new entrants. Without effective regulation, the assumed benefits of liberalisation—including more affordable access through improved management of the incumbent and more efficient allocation of resources in the market through competition—do not materialise.The paper argues that developing country telecommunications markets demand more from a regulator than simply meeting the threshold requirements of transparency and predictability via so-called international “best practice” models. Such a limited approach will not be sufficient to meet the challenges facing most developing countries. The highly imperfect nature of developing country markets, and the enormous income disparities and inequities that exist, require strategic regulation. This is necessary to enable innovative service provision, especially to under-serviced areas, and to facilitate fair competitive markets that promote the viability of the new entrants needed to build the information infrastructure—the infrastructure necessary for a country's participation in the global network economy.Simply removing all market-entry restrictions, however, is likely to place an even more onerous burden on already-struggling regulators and is unlikely to contribute to universal access and other developmental goals. A new policy approach involving the fundamental restructuring of the market is needed to remove the anti-competitive incentives that exist in the vertically integrated market structure that generally accompanies privatisation in developing countries. While a more horizontally structured market will not remove the incumbent advantage entirely, it is likely to reduce the need for constant adjustment of anti-competitive behaviour on the part of the incumbent, freeing up regulatory resources for more strategic regulation towards achieving national developmental objectives.     

Managing and modeling the price reduction effect in mobile telecommunications traffic

As needs for telecommunications services diversify, an increasingly wide range of services is becoming available in the market. Service price reduction is one strategy used by service providers to retain existing subscribers. A price reduction for one service, however, can affect the individual-level usage for other services. Price reductions can also be imposed on a service provider by regulation. For these reasons, understanding how price reductions affect service usage is of growing importance to the telecommunications industry for purposes of pricing and tariff development. In this paper, an individual-level usage model for telecommunications services is developed and the effects on usage of a price reduction are analyzed. The model is applied to age-stratified aggregate traffic data for a Korean mobile telecommunication service provider. Finally, a 0-1 integer programming model is proposed for choosing which market segment should be targeted with a price reduction to minimize revenue loss. These models can be applied to market segmentation and price reduction strategy.     

Wireline deregulation: The Canadian experience

Changes in the state of telephony markets paved the way for significant regulatory and legislative reforms in the telecommunications sector in the 1990s. In Canada, the 1993 Telecommunications Act was enacted to promote the emergence of competitors in a market that had until then been dominated by regional monopolies. This paper examines the Canadian telecommunications regulatory framework and analyzes the regulatory privileges given to new entrants at the expense of former telecommunications monopolies. Such regulations, which were meant to induce competition, ended up hurting consumers and distorting the market process. This paper also shows how the Canadian government recently eliminated many of those regulations by seizing control of the policy agenda from the telecommunications regulator.     

AI governance in the public sector: Three tales from the frontiers of automated decision-making in democratic settings

The rush to understand new socio-economic contexts created by the wide adoption of AI is justified by its far-ranging consequences, spanning almost every walk of life. Yet, the public sector's predicament is a tragic double bind: its obligations to protect citizens from potential algorithmic harms are at odds with the temptation to increase its own efficiency - or in other words - to govern algorithms, while governing by algorithms. Whether such dual role is even possible, has been a matter of debate, the challenge stemming from algorithms' intrinsic properties, that make them distinct from other digital solutions, long embraced by the governments, create externalities that rule-based programming lacks. As the pressures to deploy automated decision making systems in the public sector become prevalent, this paper aims to examine how the use of AI in the public sector in relation to existing data governance regimes and national regulatory practices can be intensifying existing power asymmetries. To this end, investigating the legal and policy instruments associated with the use of AI for strenghtening the immigration process control system in Canada; “optimising” the employment services” in Poland, and personalising the digital service experience in Finland, the paper advocates for the need of a common framework to evaluate the potential impact of the use of AI in the public sector. In this regard, it discusses the specific effects of automated decision support systems on public services and the growing expectations for governments to play a more prevalent role in the digital society and to ensure that the potential of technology is harnessed, while negative effects are controlled and possibly avoided. This is of particular importance in light of the current COVID-19 emergency crisis where AI and the underpinning regulatory framework of data ecosystems, have become crucial policy issues as more and more innovations are based on large scale data collections from digital devices, and the real-time accessibility of information and services, contact and relationships between institutions and citizens could strengthen – or undermine - trust in governance systems and democracy.     

Innovation, convergence and the role of regulation in the Netherlands and beyond

In the light of converging services for voice, data, and video, this paper discusses the challenges for telecommunications regulation from a European perspective. The Netherlands, a country with excellent conditions for facilities-based competition, is discussed as a case in point. With dynamic issues at the heart of the debate, the role of regulation and government intervention more generally is to create and possibly to sustain conditions among operators to upgrade their networks and to provide innovative services. A fresh look at current regulation suggests that an overhaul may be needed.     

Information resources : A nation's stake in telecommunications

The major trend affecting worldwide economic development is the growing level of information-intensive activities throughout all sectors of increasingly global markets. This paper analyses the crucial role of telecommunications in a nation's productive processes. It examines the salient market force of services in virtually all sectors of national economies, describes how VANs enhance the quality and utility of basic communications channels, and analyses future network growth as a country's economy and society become increasingly computerized. The author discusses the importance of competition and recommends that restrictive regulatory regimes should respond to dynamic technological change.     

The limitations of market-based regulation of the electronic communications sector

The European Union has recently implemented a system of regulation for the sector based on principles of competition law. The regulatory framework includes 18 markets where Regulatory Authorities should consider imposing ex ante obligations on dominant players. The paper explores the economic methodology being employed in particular to define market boundaries and concludes that the sector is too unstable for this approach to provide predictability and encourage long-term investment. In particular, emerging infrastructures and services can easily be captured while legacy networks remain subject to perpetual regulation. There are significant costs of excessive regulation and alternative approaches may be better.