Monetary policy announcements and stock price dynamics in a small open economy

Using a monetary framework with stock markets, this paper investigates dynamic behaviors of a small open economy with various adjustments in the manufacturing prices. For an instantaneous adjustment of the manufacturing prices, stock values and exchange rates may appear to misjump or misadjust at the instant of the monetary policy announcement. When the manufacturing prices adjust sluggishly, exchange rates may overshoot but stock values can exhibit various dynamic patterns, including overshooting or undershooting.     

A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy

New Zealand is a small economy exposed to a volatile climate, relatively volatile international trade prices, and its exposure to international financial markets has increased markedly since economic reforms in the 1980s. This paper applies identification techniques suggested by Cushman and Zha [Cushman, D.O. and Zha T.A., 1997. Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates, Journal of Monetary Economics, 39, pp. 433–448.], Zha [Zha, T.A., (1999). Block recursion and structural vector autoregression, Journal of Econometrics, 90, pp. 291–316.] and Dungey and Pagan [Dungey, M. and Pagan, A., 2000. A structural VAR model of the Australian economy, The Economic Record, 76, pp. 321–342.] to develop a large four block structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle to capture these features. The model reveals that climate and international trade price shocks have been more important sources of business cycles fluctuations than international or domestic financial shocks. Furthermore, the model does not encounter the price and exchange rate puzzles that have bedevilled attempts to identify monetary policy shocks in small open economy SVAR models.     

Hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate: A post Keynesian view

This paper examines the emergence of hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate from a post Keynesian perspective. Three variables play key roles: distributive conflict, external debt, and expectations about the exchange rate. First, we propose a short-run Kaleckian macro model. Then, we study the long-run behavior of the model by endogenizing the price level and foreign indebtedness. We conclude that the existence of expectations about the nominal exchange rate is crucial to explaining the emergence of hyperinflation.     

Capital accumulation and real exchange rate behavior in a small open economy with credit market frictions

Summary. We consider the nature of the relationship between the real exchange rate and capital formation. We present a model of a small open economy that produces and consumes two goods, one tradable and one not. Domestic residents can borrow and lend abroad, and costly state verification (CSV) is a source of frictions in domestic credit markets. The real exchange rate matters for capital accumulation because it affects the␣potential for investors to provide internal finance, which mitigates the CSV problem. We demonstrate that the real exchange rate must monotonically approach its steady state level. However, capital accumulation need not be monotonic and real exchange rate appreciation can be associated with either a rising or a falling capital stock. The relationship between world financial market conditions and the real exchange rate is also investigated. Received: October 3, 1997; revised version: October 23, 1997     

A model of a small open economy integrated in a monetary union

This paper develops a model of a small open economy integrated in a monetary union, which is a nontrivial technical extension of the existing small open economy model. The model is used to study the monetary transmission mechanism in Portugal.     

Investment-specific shocks and external balances in a small open economy model

Abstract.  We set up a standard small open economy business cycle model driven by government spending shocks, neutral productivity (TFP) shocks, and investment-specific shocks. The model is calibrated to quarterly Canadian data and its predicted moments and sample paths are compared with their Canadian counterparts. We find that the model captures the dynamics in investment and in the trade balance better than special cases of the model where either one of the productivity shocks is omitted. More specifically, the model matches the variance of the trade balance-output ratio, its correlation with output and its autocorrelation. It also matches the output-investment correlation.     

Capital utilization and habit formation in a small open economy model

Abstract.  This paper shows the effects of endogenous capital utilization and habit formation in consumption on the predictions of a small open economy model calibrated to Canada. Capital utilization improves the fit of the model by increasing the volatility of output, investment, and hours worked, while habit formation improves the fit of the model by improving the dynamic properties of consumption and the current account. It is also shown that while shocks to the world interest rate sometimes improve the fit of the baseline model, they do not improve the fit of the model with capital utilization and habit formation. JEL classification: E32, F32     

A dependent economy model of public expenditure and the exchange rate

This paper examines the impact of public expenditure shocks on the exchange rate and the external accounts in a macroeconomic model of exchange rate determination. It extends the dependent economy approach to the open economy based on the tradables/nontradables dichotomy by incorporating international capital flows and intertemporal adjustment. Consistent with empirical evidence on exchange rate behavior, yet contrary to a major result of the popular Mundell-Fleming approach, this model suggests that fiscal expansion attributable to increased public expenditure usually causes exchange rate depreciation, not appreciation. However, if the increased public spending is on investment, the exchange rate is neutrally affected.     

Exchange rate changes and endogenous terms of trade effects in a small open economy

This paper shows that the small-country assumption of dependent-economy models is unlikely to hold for many of the cases in which this class of models is used, for example, in the analysis of a terms of trade shock in the “commodity currency” models. When a shock affects most or all of the small countries exporting a commodity, the combined exchange rate effects will result in endogenous terms of trade changes even for those countries too small to individually affect world markets. The paper also explores the possible implications of these secondary terms of trade changes for the dependent-economy models.     

Inflation,growth and exchange rate regimes in small open economies

Summary. This paper compares the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes in small open economies where financial intermediaries perform a real allocative function, there are multiple reserve requirements, and credit market frictions may or may not cause credit rationing. Under floating exchange rates, raising domestic inflation can increase production if credit is rationed. However, there exist inflation thresholds: increasing inflation beyond the threshold level will reduce domestic output. Endogenously arising volatility may be observed independently of the exchange rate regime. Private information - with high rates of domestic inflation - increases the scope for indeterminacy and economic fluctuations.Received: 26 March 2002, Revised: 29 October 2002JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E44, F33.P.L. Hernandez-Verme: I would like to thank Leonardo Auernheimer, Valerie Bencivenga, Dean Corbae, Scott Freeman, Todd Keister, Beatrix Paal, and Maxwell Stinchcombe for very helpful comments and suggestions. Very special thanks are due to Bruce D. Smith. The paper also benefited from the discussions in the seminars in CIDE, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Indiana University, ITAM, Purdue University, the Second Annual Missouri Economics Conference, Texas A&M, the University of Missouri and the University of Texas at Austin.     

Import price dynamics in major advanced economies and heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-through

This article aims at showing heterogeneity in the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in major advanced economies at three different levels: (1) across destination markets; (2) across types of exporters [distinguishing developed economy (DE) from emerging economy (EE) exporters] and (3) over time. Based on monthly data over the period 1991–2007, the results show first that large destination markets exhibit the lowest degree of pass-through. The degree of pass-through for goods imported from EEs is also significantly lower than for those from DEs. Regarding the evolution over time, no clear change in pricing behaviours can be identified and the well-identified decline in the exchange rate pass-through between the 1980s and 1990s appears to have stopped during the period considered.     

Kaldorian dynamics in an open economy

In this paper, we formulate a Kaldorian business-cycle model in a small open economy. We consider the possibility of capital mobility, and both the system of fixed exchange rates and that of flexible exchange rates are studied. We investigate how changes of the parameter which represents the degree of capital mobility affect the dynamic characteristics of the model. Some numerical simulations are performed based on the analytical model.     

Intersectoral transfer of labour in a small open economy

This paper deals with normative and positive aspects of labour transfer processes in the context of a small open two-sector economy. Labour is not homogenous in the short run because transfer of labour is assumed to involve training costs in terms of output foregone when workers already possessing industry-specific knowledge are training new workers. The efficient transfer plan for this economy is characterized, and the determinants of the optimal rate of transfer derived. Upon examination of the competitive price system supporting the efficient plan, the first-best adjustment assistance policy is found, assuming real wages are sticky.     

Price dynamics in an exchange economy

The pure exchange model is the foundation of the neoclassical theory of value, yet equilibrium predictions and price adjustment dynamics for this model remained untested prior to the experiment reported in this paper. With the exchange economy replicated several times, prices and allocations in most experiment sessions adjust toward the competitive equilibrium in continuous double auction trading, though adjustment is much slower than in previous commodity flow (or perishable good) double auction market experiments. Price adjustment is evaluated by comparing its extent within each market replication (or trading period) to its extent across trading periods. More price adjustment occurs within trading periods than across trading periods, so price adjustment data are evaluated with the disequilibrium Hahn process model (Hahn and Negishi in Econometrica 30:463–469, 1962) of within-period trades. This paper introduces a stochastic version the Hahn process model and demonstrates that a linear approximation to this stochastic model yields an autoregressive process with a near unit root when the adjustment rate is low. In effect, the autoregressive price adjustment model studied extensively by time series econometricians over the past 30 years can be viewed as a reduced form of a stochastic disequilibrium exchange economy price adjustment model. Estimation of the model demonstrates that price adjustment in the exchange economy experiment is considerably slower than in economies without income effects, which suggests that the price discovery process may be a significant factor in the slow adjustment documented by applied econometricians.     

Optimal monetary policy for a small open economy

This paper focuses on the design of monetary policy rules for a small open economy. The model features optimizing behavior, general equilibrium and price stickiness. The real exchange rate is shown to affect the firm's real marginal cost, aggregate supply and aggregate demand. The welfare objective depends on the openness of the economy, and the optimal policy rule differs from that which obtains in a closed economy. The inflation versus output gap stabilization trade-off is caused by the real exchange rate. The implied optimal monetary policy regime is domestic inflation target coupled with controlled floating of the real exchange rate.