全面停伐政策对国有林区居民家庭收入的影响

基于2014—2017年对东北、内蒙古国有林区的调研数据,采用双重差分模型(DID)评估全面停伐政策对国有林区居民家庭的人均工资性收入和家庭人均收入的影响。研究结果表明:全面停伐政策的实施对林区居民家庭人均工资性收入和人均收入均存在消极影响;家中有人在其他企事业单位上班有利于促进国有林区居民家庭人均工资性收入和人均收入的增长;从事农林经营不利于国有林区居民家庭人均工资性收入增长,虽然通过获得农林经营收入可以在一定程度上填补工资性收入的减少,但是对家庭人均收入无显著消极影响。因此,建议国家林业与草原局对国有林区居民家庭进行专项资金扶持;转岗分流安排富余劳动力;改变国有林区居民保守的就业观念并鼓励自主创业等。     

Short-term employment transitions of the Canadian labour force: rural-urban differences in underemployment

Using data from the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for the period 1993–1996, we examine patterns and determinants of labour‐force transitions of adequately employed and underemployed workers in an attempt to explore whether employment dynamics significantly differ between rural and urban workers so as to disadvantage rural economic performance. The results indicate that rural adequately employed workers are significantly more likely to enter underemployment but once they are underemployed, they also have a higher probability of re‐entering adequate employment. Further, we also found weak evidence that the education level of workers has a lower impact on the probability of moving out of underemployment in rural than in urban areas. In addition, rural women are significantly less likely than their male counterparts and urban workers to enter adequate employment, although the presence of young children does not seem to especially constrain the employment of rural women. The results suggest that labour‐force transition in and out of adequate employment, and particularly underemployment, significantly differ between rural and urban workers and should be taken into account when evaluating employment hardship in rural Canada.     

Income Diversification of Rural Households in China

This article examines how different patterns of farm‐level diversification affect the income levels of rural households in China. Using quantile regression analysis of data from a rural household survey, the empirical results exhibit significant differences in diversification effects across rural income strata and various structural characteristics. Diversification, especially involving nonfarm employment and migration, brings a monetary premium to low‐income rural families and an income discount to high‐income families. The policy implications suggest the encouragement of labor‐intensive enterprises in rural areas and improvement of labor quality through rural education and training programs.     

Poverty,food intake,and malnutrition: implications for food security in developing countries

The relation between household income, food intake, and nutritional status in less developed countries is examined, and a framework that explicitly relates household behavior patterns with public policy options designed to improve the nutritional status of the rural and urban poor is presented. For rural areas, nutritional and health status depends largely upon the levels of private inputs provided by households. In turn, level depends upon income. Consequently, increasing income may also lead to improvements in nutrition and health status. Regrettably, post-World War II development strategy in most developing countries has undervalued the potential contribution of agricultural development to economic development. Domestic economic policies practiced thus far have most probably had serious negative effects upon the nutrition and heal status of the poorest segments of developing nations. Economic development policy reform is therefore called for as a measure to alleviate rural poverty in developing countries.     

我国农村劳动力的就业意向选择分析——以统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区重庆市为例

农村劳动力的就业意向选择问题研究是对农村富余劳动力转移就业问题研究的进一步深化。该文以统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区重庆农村劳动力资源为主要研究对象,以其当前就业意向性选择为切入点,对影响农村劳动力当前就业意向的不同偏好因素进行分析,对其相关特征变量进行了详细的描述性统计分析,并采用多元Logit模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明,重庆山区农村劳动力当前就业意向存在着明显的性别差异,男性农村劳动力素质总体上优于农村女性劳动力,两者平均年龄仍较高,男性农村劳动力更倾向于外出务工或经商就业,但总体收入仍不理想。务农就业意向的农村劳动力与务工、自主创业或经商就业意向的农村劳动力相比,在年龄、耕地、收入等变量方面存在显著劣势差异。农村劳动力的人力资本、家庭禀赋和所在村劳动力人口数等变量对其不同的就业意向选择具有重要影响和显著差异。     

重点国有林区改革进程对职工工资性收入影响研究

以2001—2016年东北、内蒙古重点国有林区87个林业局为样本,采用固定效应模型对重点国有林区林业局职工工资性收入影响因素进行估计,并采用面板数据分位数回归进一步分析改革进程对不同收入组林业局职工的影响。研究结果表明:重点国有林区改革的持续推进有利于职工工资性收入的增长;改革进程对高、中、低各收入组林业局职工工资性收入均具有显著的正向影响,收入越高的林业局职工从重点国有林区改革进程中获益越大。因此,提出继续深化改革、关注天保工程资金在重点国有林区创造就业岗位及增加职工收入等方面的经济社会效益、关注中低收入职工群体等建议。     

Labor migration and the decoupling of the crop-livestock system in a rural mountainous area: Evidence from Chongqing,China

Massive out-migration of rural labor force brings both challenges and opportunities to crop-livestock integrated production system (crop-livestock system) in smallholder economy. Compared with previous researches that have paid major attention to the effect of labor migration on either crop production or livestock husbandry, this study considers the mediating role of crop production in predicting the effect of labor migration on livestock raising. Our econometric estimation based on a 2012 survey of 974 rural households in Chongqing, a mountainous region of China, showed the following. (1) The massive migration of rural labor force had led to significant increase in farmland abandonment and considerable changes in the pattern of livestock raising. (2) The livestock raising number per household began to differentiate, with the livestock system separating from the traditional crop-livestock system and becoming a specialized business. (3) In terms of the pathways through which rural labor migration exerts impact on livestock raising number, though the increased opportunity costs of rural labor greatly reduced farmers’ willingness to raise livestock, the decoupling of the crop-livestock system partly alleviated the declining trend in the livestock raising number because of the availability of household labor force freed from cropping via farmland abandonment. These findings have important policy implications for rural development and agricultural restructuring in mountainous areas of China, and provide references for other developing countries.     

教育和户籍歧视对城镇工和农民工工资差异的影响

本文提出基于自然实验的工资差异分解方法用于分析个体特征差异、进入市场前教育歧视和市场后户籍歧视对城镇劳动力市场中城镇工和农民工之间工资差异的影响。研究结果表明,城镇工工资率是农民工工资率的1.79倍,两类劳动力工资差异的69.77%、14.01%和12.99%分别是由个体特征差异、农民工进入市场前受到的教育歧视和进入市场后受到的户籍歧视导致的。因此,政府在设计和实施公平的就业制度和工资分配制度的同时,大力促进城乡教育事业的均衡发展,将有助于缩小城镇工和农民工之间的工资差异。     

森林抚育补贴政策对国有林区职工家庭收入流动性的影响

利用2015及2016年东北、内蒙古国有林区411户职工家庭的跟踪调查数据,运用绝对收入流动性指标、马尔科夫链转移概率矩阵和普通最小二乘法(OLS)实证分析了森林抚育补贴政策对职工家庭收入流动性的影响。研究结果表明:国有林区职工家庭对森林抚育的参与程度处于较低水平;森林抚育补贴政策对职工家庭收入流动性的影响并不显著,但对高收入组产生了一定的积极影响;作为政策目标受益群体的低收入职工家庭,其收入水平并未因森林抚育补贴政策的实行而向上流动。     

Off‐farm labor market decisions and agricultural shocks among rural households in Kenya

Using household level data from rural Kenya, this article explores whether and how farm households respond to unfavorable agricultural production environments, including any ex post adjustments in off‐farm labor supply in response to unexpected weather shocks. While controlling for a wide range of educational, demographic, and other locational factors, we examine how long‐term weather conditions and specific rainfall shocks influence a household's decision to engage in, and their earnings from, the off‐farm labor market. We find that rural households engage in off‐farm work as a long‐term strategy to deal with the effects of anticipated weather conditions on their farming operations. The analysis does not reveal major short‐term adjustments in off‐farm engagement as a result of specific, unexpected rainfall shocks; these households do however rely on remittance income and petty agricultural wage labor under these circumstances. Holding other factors constant, and conditional on participation, households in areas with a more productive local agriculture tend to earn more from off‐farm work especially in the informal/business sector than their counterparts in regions with a less productive agriculture. As expected, a vibrant local economy in the form of public investment increases the probability of off‐farm participation.     

Wage and employment effects of Malawi's fertilizer subsidy program

This article uses three waves of nationally representative household‐level panel data from Malawi to estimate how a large‐scale fertilizer subsidy program impacts the agricultural labor market, known as ganyu in that country. I find that when looking across the entire population of smallholders, receiving an additional 100 kg of subsidized fertilizer causes the average household to supply about three fewer days of ganyu. The fertilizer subsidy program also has a small positive effect on the probability that a household demands agricultural labor, with the results approaching statistical significance. In addition, a 10 kg increase in the average amount of subsidized fertilizer acquired per household in a community boosts the median agricultural wage rate by 1.4% in that community. The increase in wage rates translates to a US $1.40 per year increase in average household income in the years after Malawi's subsidy program was scaled up, and a US $1.86 per year increase in average household income for those who sold their labor before the subsidy program was scaled up. This finding suggests that households who sell their labor off farm may experience some small spillover benefit from the program in the form of higher agricultural wage rates.     

城镇化、城乡收入差距与传统农区农村剩余劳动力就地转移的空间差异——基于ESDA方法和面板DOLS模型的实证研究

伴随着我国新型城镇化建设的推进,农村剩余劳动力向区域中心转移造成传统农业地区出现农村经济"边缘化"和农村人口"空巢化"的危机,因此文章利用河南省60个传统农业县域2000~2014年面板数据,运用Kernel核密度估计、ESDA空间地理统计分析方法和动态DOLS回归分析模型,实证分析了传统农区农村剩余劳动力就地转移的空间集聚特征以及城乡差距、城镇化对劳动力就地转移的影响力度和方向。研究结果表明:以河南省60个传统农业县为例,受空间近邻效应的影响,传统农区农村剩余劳动力就地转移的空间格局呈现典型的"中心-外围"分布特征,核密度估计结果表明其地域差距在逐步扩大;城镇化、城乡收入差距对"中心-外围"地区转移模式的影响强度和方向存在着明显的空间异质性,城镇化水平是农村剩余劳动力选择就地非农化最主要的外核拉力,且高值集聚区处于高水平均衡状态;区域中心城市"空间溢出"的非均衡性是造成劳动力就地转移出现极化特征的潜在诱因。上述研究结果意味着,可以通过工业化重心下移、鼓励城乡联营、转变农业生产经营方式等措施提高对农村剩余劳动力就地转移的吸纳能力。     

The Theory of the Farm Household: An Application to Saskatchewan

A theoretical model is presented which integrates the consumption and production components of the rural household. A theoretically determined system of expenditure equations, derived factor demand equations and an off-farm labor supply equation are estimated using primary data for Saskatchewan farm households. From the empirical results we conclude that if the wage rate can be observed or estimated, the farm household's behavior can be explained empirically in a manner consistent with received theory. Summary and Conclusions A theoretical model integrating the consumption and production sides of the farm household or enterprise is estimated empirically using primary data for Saskatchewan farm households. The farm household was assumed to maximize its utility function subject to farm production and cash flow constraints. The empirical results indicate that the theoretical model can be estimated successfully even when data are sparse. While the coefficients for the expenditure, derived demand, and off-farm labor supply equations are consistent with coefficients from similar equations estimated separately by others, the theoretically more precise integrated approach specifies the simultaneous effect of the variables across equations. From the empirical results and the theoretical considerations it is obvious that the wage rate is a key explanatory variable in the model. The wage rate links the three components of the model–final expenditures, the derived input demands and off-farm labor hours. The wage rate is one determinant of the allocation of the operator's time (although other factors such as the nature of the operation and opportunities to work off-farm dominated in this study), and both the wage rate and the allocation of the time determine the eventual income available to the rural household. In essence, then, the problem of explaining farm household behavior when the household's business enterprise function cannot be separated from its consumption activity is similar to that of traditional models based on the theory of the firm and models of consumer behavior. The only difference is that the wage rate is observable in the traditional models but needs to be estimated as a shadow price in models which seek to explain rural household behavior. As a result, research in this area must start with an explanation of the allocation of (at least) the operator's labor and a measure of the shadow wage rate. If the entire household's allocation of time between on-farm and off-farm labor and leisure is determined, it is possible to treat its consumption and production activities separately. Further research is required to extend the model to explain household labor supply to both the farm and off-farm labor markets.     

中小城镇新生代农民工市民化能力测度及空间分异研究——来自江西省的调查

新生代农民工是否能够成功实现市民化,不但取决于其市民化意愿,还取决于其市民化能力,两者缺一不可。中国农民工在市民化方面表现出强市民化意愿与弱市民化能力的强烈反差,科学构建农民工市民化能力指标体系并对其进行测量评价,对明晰农民工市民化能力现状,提升农民工市民化能力具有重要的现实意义。从农村退出、城市进入及城市融合等3个方面构建了由3个一级指标、9个二级指标和20个三级指标组成的农民工市民化能力综合评价指标体系,并运用江西省1 056位农民工的实地调研数据,使用层次分析法(AHP),对中小城镇新生代农民工市民化能力及其空间分异进行了实证分析,并提出了相应对策建议。研究表明,新生代农民工市民化能力总体偏低,不同维度的市民化能力发展不均衡,城市就业能力最强,土地退出补偿能力次之,城市融入能力最差,受教育程度、工作年限、月工资收入、交往对象、住房类型、土地流转数量和土地征用数量等是新生代农民工市民化能力偏低的主要影响因素;各地区新生代农民工市民化能力水平大多处于中等水平,存在一定的空间分布差异,除九江、南昌、赣州和吉安等4个地级市达到平均水平外,其他7个地级市都在平均水平之下;大多数地区不同维度市民化能力都趋于一致,发展较为均衡。最后,分别从人力资本、社会资本、土地制度和空间分异的视角提出相关对策,认为要全面提升新生代农民工总体市民化能力水平,实现地区均衡,就必须通过提升人力资本,改革城市就业制度,增强新生代农民工的城市就业能力;通过提升社会资本,降低城市融入成本,增强新生代农民工的城市融入能力;改革农村土地制度,盘活农村土地资产,增强新生代农民工的土地退出补偿能力。     

新冠肺炎疫情对2020年农业农村发展的影响评估与应对建议

由于种养业季节性强、农民工流动性大、农村防护条件差,疫情对农业农村发展的影响具有全面性和持久性。研究显示,疫情防控导致的物流中断,家禽养殖企业遭遇生存危机,导致短期肉价下跌和2020年肉类供需紧张局面加剧;果蔬滞销、粮食销售延迟以及部分农产品消费抑制,将使相当部分种植户2020年收益面临下滑;疫情期间的延期复工和疫情后的长期停工会导致农民工就业人数下降205万人至351.1万人,2020年农民工人均工资收入名义增长速度可能将下降1.45至2.46个百分点。综合考虑疫情对各项收入来源的影响,2020年农村居民人均可支配收入名义增长速度可能将下降2.59至3.59个百分点。因此,应加紧建立应急储备和加大供需调节力度,以补贴和政策性信贷支持引导龙头企业帮助小农户度过难关,加大对农民工再就业培训和返乡创业的支持,多渠道稳定农民收入。     

How poor are women in rural India?

The assessment of poor women in India as dependent and exploited regardless of poverty focused strategies is reflected in this review of relevant literature. The scholarly approaches to the problems of poor women involve redirection and expansion of resources to women (increase bank credit) through policy and institutional changes, and involve improving women's welfare through changes in class and gender hierarchies; both pertain to restructuring power groups. A little ascribed to belief is that the organization of women's numbers will empower women; the constraints are stated. There is also some argument over whether to design women-specific programs or integrate women into existing programs; some examples are given of successes and difficulties. The regionalization of poverty in eastern and central India is discussed. The growth of the poor has been among the landless, wage-dependent households. 9.6% of households (7.5 million) are headed by women. Women work fewer hours and at lower wage scales and have fewer employment opportunities. Lower earnings are coupled with differentials in demand for female and male labor in agriculture and a crowded labor market. There is a concentration of women in less visible, nonmonetary subsistence production and domestic work. Women are undercounted in employment studies. Women predominate in agricultural activity. Women's status is influenced by economic status, caste, and ethnic background. Domestic work increases status for women and households. The poorer households have greater labor force participation, particularly as wage laborers rather than unpaid family workers. Regional factors affecting rural household strategies are factors affecting the economy (topography, rainfall, climate) and the degree of development, plus sociocultural variables (kinship and religious beliefs which affect the social domain of women), and the degree of dependence on hired vs. family labor. There are sharp contrasts in the value and survival of women regionally. Female labor force participation is low in all regions; the nature and distribution of agricultural laborers is discussed followed by examples from 3 different regions (east, south, and north). The gender inequalities in access to basic needs are reviewed for sex ratio, mortality, and nutrition, and education. The preference is for gender-based policies targeting women.     

精准扶贫政策对城乡居民收入差距的影响研究——以山西省为例

[目的]实施精准扶贫政策以来,我国共减少贫困人口6 853万人。在脱贫攻坚取得重大进展的背景下,对比政策实施前后城乡居民收入的变化,对于揭示精准扶贫政策的作用具有重要意义。[方法]以贫困范围广、贫困程度深的山西省为对象,基于2010—2017年精准扶贫政策实施前后的统计数据,采用双重差分模型研究不同贫困程度县(区)城乡居民收入差距变化。[结果]精准扶贫政策的效果主要为:贫困县的城乡居民收入差距缩小幅度约为非贫困县的3倍,而其中国家级贫困县的收入差距缩小幅度约为省级贫困县的2倍;共同趋势检验和安慰剂检验的结果验证了模型的稳健性。对比采用最小二乘法(OLS)得到的精准扶贫政策效果,揭示出如果忽略城乡居民收入差距随时间的变化,则会高估精准扶贫政策效果约1.5～4倍,再次证明模型的有效性。通过引入控制变量探讨政策以外的其他影响因素,发现城镇化水平、经济发展水平、第三产业占比、人均农业产值有助于缩小城乡居民收入差距,人均土地状况会扩大城乡居民收入差距,固定资产投资和消费水平的影响不显著。[结论]精准扶贫政策对于缩小城乡居民收入差距具有显著效果,且对深度贫困地区的影响更明显。     

Household Food Consumption in a Developing Economy:

The primary objective of this paper is to describe household rice consumption patterns in Nigeria with evidence from Imo State, determine the nature, magnitude and direction of income, price and cross price elasticities of demand, and examine the factors influencing household rice consumption. A budget survey of 50 randomly selected rural and urban households in Imo State, Nigeria, interviewed. The survey was repeated for 14 months between November 1984 and January 1986, providing the data used for analysis. There were significant differences between urban and rural household per capita daily rice consumption. Income (expenditure) elasticity of demand was greater than unity, and decreased, as expected, from low to high income groups. Household income was the most important determinant of food consumption. The implications of these findings for food and international trade policy are discussed.     

农村劳动力结构性短缺的影响因素分析——基于湖南省224份问卷的调查

随着农村劳动力不同质的转移,大量农村地区出现了劳动力老龄化、妇女化、低素质化等现象,留守的农村劳动力出现了严重的结构性短缺,农村劳动力一定程度的畸形转移与结构性缺失,使得农村发展过渡到了一个瓶颈阶段。文章基于224户农户的调查数据,运用因子分析方法,对影响农村劳动力结构性短缺的因素进行了实证分析。模型结果表明:农村劳动力结构性短缺受人力资本、家庭、收入、就业因素的影响。其中,(1)人力资本因素,人力资本因素的贡献率是最大的,留守农户拥有技能、接受培训与否直接影响着农村劳动力的结构;(2)家庭因素,家庭年纯收入、家庭人口数量、土地经营情况对农村劳动力结构性短缺的影响较大,(3)收入因素,本人月收入的影响权重较大;(4)就业因素,就业因素的影响力度较小,农户从事的行业以及就业地点间接影响农村劳动力结构性短缺。针对模型结果,提出几点政策建议。     

The impact of migration on rural poverty and inequality: a case study in China

Large numbers of agricultural labor moved from the countryside to cities after the economic reforms in China. Migration and remittances play an important role in transforming the structure of rural household income. This article examines the impact of rural‐to‐urban migration on rural poverty and inequality in a mountainous area of Hubei province using the data of a 2002 household survey. Since migration income is a potential substitute for farm income, we present counterfactual scenarios of what rural income, poverty, and inequality would have been in the absence of migration. Our results show that, by providing alternatives to households with lower marginal labor productivity in agriculture, migration leads to an increase in rural income. In contrast to many studies that suggest that the increasing share of nonfarm income in total income widens inequality, this article offers support for the hypothesis that migration tends to have egalitarian effects on rural income for three reasons: (1) migration is rational self‐selection—farmers with higher expected return in agricultural activities and/or in local nonfarm activities choose to remain in the countryside while those with higher expected return in urban nonfarm sectors migrate; (2) households facing binding constraints of land supply are more likely to migrate; (3) poorer households benefit disproportionately from migration.