Impacts of Declining U.S. Retail Beef Demand on Farm-Level Beef Prices and Production

A systems model was estimated to determine the effects of declining U.S. retail beef demand on farm-level beef prices and production. Retail beef demand declined by nearly 66% from 1976 to 1999. Results indicate autonomous shifts in retail demand significantly impacted farm-level demands and production. Based on equilibrium multipliers, the 1976–99 reduction in beef demand decreased real slaughter cattle prices and production by 32.1% and 11.2%, respectively. Real feeder cattle prices and production decreased by 8.0% and 22.6%, respectively. Combining the decreases in farm prices and production, slaughter and feeder cattle producers experienced a real revenue reduction of $13.3 billion (61%) due to the long-term decline in demand.     

Effects of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Outbreaks on U.S. Cattle and Beef Prices

U.S. trade of beef and live cattle declined substantially after the discoveries of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada and the United States in 2003. In this study, an econometric model is developed to estimate the effects of lifting trade restrictions on U.S. cattle and beef prices. Results show that increases in imports of Canadian cattle and beef would lower prices of slaughter steers, feeder steers, and retail beef, but these negative impacts would be more than negated by the positive effects on prices that would result if beef exports return to near pre-BSE levels.     

猪肉价格高位大涨的原因及对宏观经济的影响

2007年以来,猪肉价格的高位大涨是猪肉价格长期低迷导致的结果,属于恢复性上涨.猪肉价格的上涨主要是由供给减少引起的.供给主要是受到内外因素的影响,内因是生产成本的推动和养殖户积极性下降;外因是疫病的扰动和流通的不畅.通过建立ECM模型,发现猪肉价格的上涨不会引起通货膨胀,而通货膨胀引起了猪肉价格的上涨.通货膨胀是影响猪肉价格短期波动的持久性因素.     

Threshold Effects in Price Transmission: The Case of Brazilian Wheat, Maize, and Soya Prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.     

农产品价格上涨对生猪养殖户的影响研究

本研究对当前由生猪价格上涨引起的生猪养殖收益变动情况进行了探讨。在江西、湖南两省的调查发现 ,市场化程度高的规模生猪养殖户在这次生猪及饲料价格上涨中受到损害 ;而市场化程度较低的一般 (小规模 )生猪养殖户反而在这次生猪及饲料价格上涨中受益 ,但受益幅度较小。     

中国棉花国际贸易对国际市场棉花价格影响的实证分析——对中国棉花“贱卖贵买”现象的质疑

本文运用葛兰杰因果关系检验法对中国棉花国际贸易对国际市场棉花价格的影响进行了实证分析。分析表明，在棉花进口方面，中国呈现出典型的“大国贸易”模式，而在棉花出口方面，中国却呈现出“小国贸易”模式，此结论纠正了以往人们通常认为的中国棉花国际贸易存在“贱卖贵买”特征的观点和认识。     

粮食价格及收入变动对国民营养影响分析

本文以粮食中的热量、蛋白质和脂肪为研究对象,利用差分需求方程,估计营养价格弹性和收入弹性,以考察粮食价格及收入变动对居民营养需求的影响。实证结果表明,收入变动对居民营养需求影响不大,粮食是居民基本营养来源。稻谷和小麦主食类粮食价格变动对居民营养需求具有一定影响,价格变动将使其反向调整对热量、蛋白质和脂肪的需求,玉米和大豆非主食类粮食价格变动则影响较小。     

The Impact of Lower Grains and Oilseeds Prices on Canada's Grains Sector: A Regional Programming Approach

With the enactment of the 1985 U.S. Food Security Act, world grains and oilseeds prices for the 1986–87 crop year fell significantly. It is expected that future world prices will continue to be low as long as the current world excess supply situation prevails and export subsidies are used by the U.S. and EC. Adjustments that Prairie grain producers and others are expected to make in response to lower long-term grain prices are analyzed in this paper. A multi-commodity and multi-sector regional mathematical programming model of Canadian agriculture is used. Changes in regional production and summerfallow patterns, regional income impacts and changing land rents are also noted. These all have implications for current and future policies, in particular, those related to soil conservation and farm finance policies. Avec la promulgation en 1985 de la U.S. Food Security Act, les prix mondiaux des céréales et des oléagineux ont baissé de façon appréciable pour la campagne agricole 1986–1987. On s'attend à ce qu'à ?avenir les prix mondiaux demeurent faibles tant que ?offre restera excédentaire comme elle ?est actuellement et que les États-Unis et la CEE continueront à subventionner leurs exportations. Les auteurs du présent document font une analyse des modifications que les producteurs de céréales des Prairies et autres devront apporter à leurs activités pour s'adapter aux prix à long terme des grains. Les auteurs utilisent un modèle de programmation mathématique de ?agriculture canadienne, fondé sur la région, des produits primaires multiples et des secteurs multiples. Ils notent également les changements dans les modes de production et de jachère régionaux, les effets sur les revenus régionaux et les changements dans les loyers de la terre. Tous ces facteurs influent sur les politiques actuelles et futures, en particulier celles qui touchent à la conservation des sols et au financement agricole.     

生物燃料乙醇发展及其对近期粮食价格上涨的影响分析

本文在对已有相关研究和各主要生物燃料乙醇生产国燃料乙醇发展现状和政策进行系统综述的基础上,分析了生物燃料乙醇发展对近期全球和我国粮食价格上涨的影响.分析表明,生物能源发展是近期全球粮食价格快速上涨的重要原因之一;生物燃料乙醇发展不但提高了对能源作物的需求,而且通过密切农产品与石油两个市场的联系,使粮食价格紧随能源市场价格而波动;生物燃料乙醇将在未来得到进一步发展,其对粮食价格的影响也将是长期的:我国政府应当尽早采取措施以保障国内粮食安全.     

集体林区农村居民闲暇时间配置及其对公共文化服务供给满意度分析

基于浙江省集体林区4个县(市)192户农户调查数据,采用统计描述和满意度评价等方法对样本农户闲暇时间配置状况、特点,农村公共文化服务供给状况进行分析,同时分析农村居民对公共文化服务供给的满意度情况。结果表明:集体林区农村居民闲暇时间较为丰富,闲暇时间以易获性、便捷性较强的娱乐消遣类活动为主;不同地区、年龄、性别和教育水平的农村居民闲暇时间配置有较大差异;不同地区农村公共文化服务供给及农村居民对农村公共文化服务满意水平也存在一定差异。最后,针对农村公共文化服务供给和提高农村居民满意度等方面提出了相应的政策建议。     

农产品涨价对农户生产收益与家庭生计的影响研究

通过对湖南、江西两省的农产品价格调查研究后发现,当前主要农产品价格上涨带来的种植业收入增加大于因生产资料涨价而导致的生产性投入增加,但价格上涨对养殖业却带来一定冲击。同时,农户的生活支出亦相应增加,并且部分农产品还只能用于自身消费,农户需要负担部分或全部生产成本的增加额。由此可见,农产品价格上涨对促进农民增收的作用相当有限,并在一定程度上加重了贫困农户的负担。因此,应有意识地引导农户对其生产结构进行适应性调整。     

粮食金融化背景下投机行为与国际粮价波动——以大豆期货为例

利用CFTC公布的COT持仓报告数据检验了2006年6月至2013年7月大豆期货价格和投机性持仓两者间的关系,通过构造投机多头头寸变化率、投机多头头寸占比和投机净头寸3种度量投机力量的指标,发现3种指标均与大豆期货价格正相关,其中投机多头头寸变化率能更好地预测大豆价格的变动.由于投机行为有推高粮食价格的潜在危害,监管机构应当加强监管防止投机资金对粮食衍生品市场的过度投机.     

The Effects of Housing Prices, Wages, and Commuting Time on Joint Residential and Job Location Choices

An empirical model of joint decisions of where to live and where to work demonstrates that individuals make residential and job location choices by trading off wages, housing prices, and commuting costs. Wages are higher in metropolitan markets, but housing prices are also higher in urban areas. Consumers can live in lower priced nonmetropolitan houses and still earn urban wages, but they incur commuting costs that increase with distance from the city. Improvements in transportation that lower commuting time will increase nonmetropolitan populations and will increase the number of nonmetropolitan commuters to metropolitan markets. Equal wage growth across labor markets causes a shift in relative population from rural to urban markets, while an equiproportional increase in housing prices causes a population shift toward rural areas.     

Prices and Health: Identifying the Effects of Nutrition, Exercise, and Medication Choices on Blood Pressure

Biomedical studies suggest that a person's behavior matters to health, but these studies usually treat human choice as exogenous. This study shows that individual choices on nutrient intake, exercise, and use of medication are influenced by exogenous food prices, wages, and non–labor income. Using these exogenous variables as instruments for endogenous behavior makes a big difference in the estimated impact of nutrient intake, exercise, and medication on blood pressure. For example, application of instrumental variables methods changes the impact of sodium on blood pressure from positive to negative and significant.     

The Impact of the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children on Child Health

Data from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey are used to analyze the effect of the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Program and other factors on the health of U.S. preschool children. Ordered probit equations are estimated for the physician's overall evaluation of the child's health. The WIC Program has a significant positive impact on the overall health of children. In particular, children in households participating in WIC are significantly more likely to be in excellent health. Increased household income also improves their health.     

转基因作物商业化的现状、对粮食安全的影响及启示

关于转基因作物的争论已从生物安全、生态和健康风险转移到粮食安全和知识产权等领域。本文分析了目前的转基因作物商业化种植的概况和生物技术产业及知识产权格局,分析了目前商业化种植的转基因作物的两种特性对农业生产、单产的影响,探讨了转基因生物技术在解决全球粮食安全中的作用以及对我国粮食安全的影响。认为转基因作物对于全球和我国粮食安全意义不大,粮食安全不应成为我国推进转基因作物商业化的动因;现阶段我国主要粮食作物不应推行现有转基因特性品种商业化;在转基因商业化上应坚持预防原则和自主品种研发为主的道路。     

矿业权价款的经济性质及其评估完善建议

由于对矿业权价款经济性质认识模糊,当前对矿业权价款评估与收取时出现一定的偏差与混乱。矿业权价款经济性质是资本收益,完善矿业权价款评估方法的主要思路是将资本收益与资源权益分开,体现包括国家投资在内的各种投资主体的平等地位,应取得一样的资本收益,同时避免国家所有者的资源权益流失而产生暴利的现象。     

珠三角一小时城市圈房地产价格影响因素对房价及其波动的影响程度研究

研究目的:研究珠三角一小时城市圈房价与其影响因素的相关关系,揭示各影响因素对该地区房价及其波动的影响程度。研究方法:计量经济分析方法和建模。研究结果:研究区房价与其影响因素之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;GDP与房价之间存在双向因果关系,GDP变化对房价波动的贡献最大。研究结论:研究珠三角一小时城市圈的房价波动应把握该地区的经济发展形势这条主线;各影响因素对房价波动的影响程度存在差异,应当综合考虑多种影响因素对房价进行调控。     

中国原木进口的需求弹性及预测——基于月度时间序列的Johansen协整估计

鉴于中国原木进口需求弹性的参数值信息有限,利用月度时间序列数据构建中国原木进口需求函数,在Johansen协整框架下展开计量分析。向量误差修正模型的估计结果显示:中国原木的进口需求对所有变量都是缺乏弹性的,且在1%的统计水平上显著;中国国内经济产出和实际进口价格的弹性分别为0.86(±0.05)和-0.68(±0.15),短期对长期均衡的偏离的调整系数为0.61。基于估计参数的预测结果显示,受经济新常态的影响,2020年中国原木进口量约为5067万m3~6464万m3,并呈现平稳增长的态势。