经济下行有其必然 今年走势谨慎看好

一、经济下行的主要原因 从产业(供给)来看,工业增速下降是经济增速回落的主要原因.2008年,第一产业增长5.5%,比2007年提高1.8个百分点;第二产业增长9.3%,下降5.4个百分点;第三产业增长9.5%,下降4.3个百分点.特别是工业增速在6月份以后呈现加快回落的态势,12月份增速只有5.7%,同比回落11.7个百分点;全年同比增长12.9%,回落5.6个百分点.由于工业占第二产业的比重接近90%,占GDP的比重超过40%,对经济增长的贡献率接近50%,因此,工业增速下降是经济增速回落的主要原因.     

广西产业结构与经济增长关系的协整研究

运用协整理论对广西1978～2007年间的数据进行分析表明:广西经济增长与产业结构之间存在长期的动态均衡关系,经济增长与第二、三产业的发展相互促进,广西经济增长与第二、三产业结构之间互为双向因果关系,广西经济增长与第二、三产业产出在GDP中的比重成同向变动关系,而与第一产业产出在GDP中的比重成反向变动关系;第三产业产出对GDP的影响最大。     

我国三次产业就业结构变动的数量分析

<正> 一、决定我国第三产业就业比重的因素我们知道,第三产业伴随着经济增长而发展。经济增长可以参照以下数量指标来衡量:①人均GNP;②都市化程度;③工业化程度;④居民消费水平及其他指标。将这些指标分别记为X_1、X_2、X_3、X_4……X(?)。第三产业就业比重还受到第一产业、第二产业以及第三产业自身发展状况的影响。用相对国民收入来作为指标: 某产业相对国民收入=该产业国民收入比重/该产业劳动力比重分别记之为Z_1、Z_2、Z_3 设Y为第三产业就业比重,则有: Y=F(X_1、X_2……X_(?),Z_1、Z_2、Z_3) 在进行模型计算时,我们将函数F假设为线性函数,用1990年全国30个省市的数据作样本,对上述模型进行回归。     

孝感市产业结构与经济增长关系的实证研究

文章利用1992-2009年孝感市的历史时间序列数据,对产业结构与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析,基本结论为:从总体上看,孝感市经济增长与第一产业、第二产业、第三产业的产值比重均具有较紧密的相关关系。但三大产业的发展与其在经济增长的推动作用是不一样的,通过运用经济模型,得出第二产业是推动经济增长的主要动力,其次是第一产业,第三产业又次之,并据此提出了政策建议。     

区域经济不平衡增长对我国产业结构调整的影响

区域经济不平衡增长对我国产业结构调整的影响阳华区域经济不平衡增长从动态来看,是在区域内以追求资源配置效率最大化为目标的产业之间的非均衡增长;从静态来看,是指在区域内使主导产业占有足够大的比重.     

我国海洋产业与海洋经济低碳化水平关联度研究

国内外学者对海洋经济低碳化发展的研究,主要集中在相关理论的分析和海洋经济低碳化发展模式的探讨方面。而对于海洋产业与海洋经济低碳化水平关联度的研究很鲜见。从我国海洋产业发展现状出发,分析我国海洋产业结构、海洋产业占经济总量的比重,并就海洋产业的经济增长贡献率进行量化分析,运用灰色关联度分析方法对海洋产业集群与海洋经济低碳化水平进行测度与实证分析。     

我国产业结构的增加值率分析

近年来,我国各产业经济增长质量有下滑趋势.用中间投入系数这个概念分析增加值率,测算我国各产业的历年投入系数,可以得出如下结论:巩固发展第一产业;稳定发展第二产业,并适当降低增加值比重;搞好第三产业的结构调整,大力发展第三产业.     

有关农民收入问题的理论浅析

本文在简单的描述了农民纯收入增长缓慢的现状以后,从公平与效率两个角度分析了其经济、社会影响,然而从理论和实践两个方面分析了引起农民收入增长缓慢的资源禀赋、产业空洞、剩余产业与剩余产品增量分割等几个深层原因,并提出了在经济运行中解决这些问题及促进农民收入增长的相应对策。     

南京培育发展战略性新兴产业的做法及启示

<正>2013年,南京市六类九大战略性新兴产业实现主营业务收入4700亿元,同比增长22.8%,占全市工业经济比重达37.8%,比上年同期提高3.8个百分点。其中生物医药、智能制造装备、轨道交通、卫星应用、智能电网、新能源汽车等产业增长较快,累计增幅均超过25%。今年1-2月,该市战略性新兴产业实现主营业务收入750亿元,同比增长18.8%,高于全市工业平均水平13.5个百分点,占全市工业经济比重38%以上,实现了良好开局。发展特点产业规模持续扩大。2013年,南京市战略性新兴产业占工业经济比重已超     

关于有效提升辽宁省固定资产投资的对策建议

经济增长的"三架马车"包括消费、投资和外贸。辽宁经济的外贸依存度低,同时工业比重相对其他省份较高,投资对辽宁经济增长的拉动作用至关重要。然而,目前辽宁省固定资产投资增速缓慢,甚至面临负增长的巨大压力,与工业大省的地位极不相称,亟待解决。本文在对辽宁省固定资产投资增长的现状和影响因素进行分析的基础上,有针对性地提出了对策建议。     

Migration and its Determinants: A Study of Two Communities in Colombia

Using data gathered by the author in two communities in Southwestern Colombia, this paper tests a model of migration which incorporates relative deprivation as one of many possible reasons to migrate. The study finds that the product of relative deprivation and family income not only has a sensible interpretation; it is a better predictor of migration than its two component variables alone. Results also show that families with the highest propensities to migrate are those with the most to gain in terms of being better able to reduce relative deprivation through successful migration. These families, however, are neither at the bottom nor at the top of the income distribution in their communities. The study also finds that those most likely to migrate to the USA conform most closely to the immigration policies of the USA.

Trade in Capital Goods and International Co-movements of Macroeconomic Variables

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the causes of international co-movements of macroeconomic variables. In particular, existing real business cycle models predict cross-country consumption correlations to be higher than in the actual data, cross-country output correlations to be lower than in the actual data, and cross-country consumption correlations to be relatively higher than the output correlations. We show that cross-country correlations of consumption, investment, employment and output predicted by a standard international real business cycle model are highly sensitive to the share of capital goods in total trade. Our calibrated model shows that when capital goods account for a share of total traded goods greater than 50%, the apparent discrepancy between the data and the simulations is resolved.

Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilizations: What are the Gains from Cooperation?

In this paper we extend the open-economy stochastic framework of Obstfeld and Rogoff (Q J Econ. 117:503–36, 2002) to include distortionary taxation, when prices are flexible but wages are sticky. We use the model to analyze the optimal design of tax rules that respond to productivity shocks, under non-cooperation and cooperation between the fiscal authorities, and evaluate the gains from coordination. We show that, although monetary policy would be preferred to fiscal policy as a stabilization tool both under competition (Nash) and under cooperation, there is a role for procyclical fiscal stabilization in a monetary union where the monetary authority cannot respond to asymmetric shocks. Moreover, we show that in the Nash game there will be an incentive for the fiscal authorities to try to manipulate the terms-of-trade in their favor, and we estimate the potential gains from fiscal policy coordination. The size of the gains depends crucially on the value of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply. For lower values of the Frisch elasticity (more in line with microeconometric estimates) the gains are relatively small, but for more elastic labor supplies (more in agreement with the business cycle literature) the gains can be very large.

The Economics of Experience-Based Higher Education

This article examines the relative costs and benefits associated with experience-based higher education in comparison to traditional lecture-based courses. The spreading of fixed costs that has been heavily relied upon in recent years to slow the accelerating cost of a college education is more difficult to accomplish with experience-based courses. In addition, certain intellectual capital costs must be invested in the transition to a curriculum balanced by adequate opportunities for experiential learning. The benefits of the latter, however, are also high, perhaps disproportionately so. After reviewing the evidence regarding the benefits that accrue to students, colleges, and communities, it is concluded that economic analysis supports the inclusion of experiential education in most baccalaureate programs. Further empirical work is needed to educate decision-makers and the public about the tradeoffs involved.

The common external tariff of a customs union: Alternative approaches

The most prominent exception to the cardinal ‘most favoured nation’ principle of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) of 1947 is in its Article XXIV relating to Customs Unions (CUs) and Free Trade Areas (FTAs). This article required, first, the general incidence of the duties and regulations of commerce imposed by members of the CU with respect to trade with non-members shall not on the whole be higher or more restrictive than those that were applicable prior to the formation of CU or FTA, and, second, that substantially all the trade among members be free. Neither requirement was very operational, because the phrases ‘general incidence’ and ‘substantially all’ being difficult legal concepts to apply. The agreement of 1994 establishing the World Trade Organization (WTO) has made ‘general incidence’ precise by defining it import-weighted average of height of barriers but without offering any rationale for the definition. Now that preferential trading arrangements such as FTAs are proliferating, reform of Article XXIV is of importance. This paper describes alternative approaches to the central question of common external tariffs of a CU. Taking off from the work of Kemp and Wan who showed the existence of a common external tariff of CU that keeps the welfare of non-members unchanged while revising that of the CU as compared to the situation prior to the formation of CU, it characterizes such a tariff structure for two leading benchmark examples as consumption-weighted average of pre-union tariffs and subsidies in the member countries.     

International Saving, Investment and Trade

Feldstein and Horioka (Econ J 90:314–329, 1980) observed that saving and investment move closely together in the major OECD countries. This finding is a puzzle if national economies are characterized by one sector neoclassical production functions—with diminishing returns to capital, a high level of savings in a country should create an incentive to export capital. In this paper, we show that this incentive disappears in the presence of multiple sectors with differing capital intensities. In a high saving country, national capital can be absorbed domestically without a decline in its marginal product through a shift in the sectoral composition of national production towards capital intensive sectors. This is nothing but the well-known Rybczynski effect. We present a modified version of the standard Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) Model to show that very small barriers to capital mobility are enough to force national savings to stay within the country of origin. We also argue that, while the assumptions of this model may appear special, they are not unrealistic for the developed countries in the Feldstein Horioka study. Some historical economic trends are also consistent with the picture presented in this paper. Finally, the paper shows that the conventional insights from the one sector neoclassical model can be completely overturned in a multi-sector setting when technological differences are introduced.

Reform of the Japanese banking system

Japan has experienced a decade-long economic stagnation with a distressed banking sector in the 1990s. The absence of a credit culture to rigorously assess and price credit risks of borrowers, aggravated by weak prudential and supervisory frameworks, in the 1980s, the collapse of the asset price bubble in the early 1990s, and the lack of decisive, comprehensive strategy to address the banking sector problem at an early stage were largely responsible for the emergence of banking sector problems. All of these allowed a systemic banking crisis to emerge in 1997–98 and a large output loss during 1998–2002. The crisis ultimately prompted the government to take a more aggressive policy to tackle the problem. Considerable progress has been made since then on banking sector stabilization, restructuring, and consolidation. The regulatory and supervisory framework has been strengthened in a way consistent with an increasingly market-oriented, globalized environment. As a result, the worst is over in the Japanese banking system, setting the stage for sustained economic recovery. Though bank capital may still be inadequate, safety nets are in place, and credit allocation has been made more rational. Remaining risks are limited to regional and smaller institutions that are vulnerable to weak, local economic conditions and hikes of the long-term interest rate.

Trade Costs,Trade Balances and Current Accounts: An Application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade

In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 7777:339–390, 2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Our approach has a number of novel features. First, we focus on the interrelationship between trade costs, the trade account and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Second, we use the gravity model to estimate the effect of trade costs on bilateral trade and, third, we show how bilateral trade can be used to draw inferences about desired trade balances and desired intertemporal trade. Our econometric results provide strong support for the Obstfeld and Rogoff hypothesis and we are also able to reconcile our results with the so-called home bias puzzle.

Volatility Relationship between Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

This paper utilizes calculated historical volatility and GARCH models to compare the historical price volatility behavior of crude oil, motor gasoline and heating oil in U.S. markets since 1990. We incorporate a shift variable in the GARCH/TARCH models to capture the response of price volatility to a change in OPEC’s pricing behavior. This study has three major conclusions. First, there was an increase in volatility as a result of a structural shift to higher crude oil prices after April 1999. Second, volatility shocks from current news are not important since GARCH effects dominate ARCH effects in the variance equation. Third, persistence of volatility in all commodity markets is quite transitory, with half-lives normally being a few weeks.

The monetary history of Rome

Abstract

The internationally-renowned Swedish historian, Professor Sture Bolin, has devoted himself, ever since his youth, to the problems of monetary history and to the study of coinage as a historical source. His doctoral thesis on the finds of Roman coins in independent Germany ¹ Fynden av romerska mynt i det fria Germanien. appeared in 1926; it was an important work which, by using numismatic source material, contributed considerably to the understanding of the relations between the Roman Empire and the Germans. After the publication of this work he continued to study the functions of money in Antiquity and the Middle Ages, and this research resulted in the publication, between 1939 and 1957, of a number of important papers. During the same period he worked steadily on a major work designed to provide a synthesis of the problems relating to the state and its currency from Antiquity to the Middle Ages. The first volume of this work, State and Currency in the Roman Empire to 300 A.D. ² Almqvist & Wiksell, Stockholm, 1958, p. 357, 45 Sw. Kr. , has now been published. The book is the product of a lifelong study of a central theme of economic history, and it unquestionably justifies the great efforts expended on it. It is a work of genius, epoch-making in its field, throwing completely new light upon Roman monetary history, and marking a culminating point in this branch of study.