中国养老金隐性债务、转轨成本、改革方式及其影响——可计算一般均衡分析

中国经济改革所遇到的一个严重障碍就是缺少一个有效的和可持续的养老金体系。在考察了国际经验后 ,本文利用可计算一般均衡模型分析了中国养老金改革的影响 ,并比较了支付隐性养老金债务和转制成本的各种选择方案。通过考察各种改革方案对养老体系自身可持续性和整个经济增长的影响 ,模拟结果表明中国养老金体制的改革虽然任重道远 ,但仍是富有希望的。     

中国养老保险制度变迁的经济学分析

1980年前后随着市场化改革的进行,中国也开始了养老保险制度的改革①。自20世纪90年代建立部分基金制后,制度的转轨带来了前所未有的转轨成本和激励问题,这给羽翼未丰的中国养老保险制度带来了沉重的负担。文章透过中国养老保险制度的变迁,分析了不同时期不同利益集团是如何推动养老保险制度改革,分析了利益集团在当前情况下对下一步改革又会产生如何的影响。一种可行的养老保险制度的选择还有待进一步讨论。     

公务员养老保险制度改革探析

基于新制度经济学的视角,本文对我国公务员养老保险制度改革的指导思想和特殊原则进行了创新性设计.在改革的具体模式上,三支柱养老保障体制同样适合于公务员养老保险制度的改革,其中公务员职业养老年金是充分体现该制度改革的指导思想和特殊原则的层次,通过设计政策性的团体年金保险展开这一层次的建设,既可以减轻国家财政负担,又可以保障公务员利益,规范公务员行为,进而实现制度改革目标.     

ACHIEVING FISCAL BALANCE IN JAPAN*

Japan is aging and has the highest government debt‐to‐output ratio among advanced economies. In this article, we build a micro data‐based, large‐scale overlapping generations model for Japan in which individuals differ in age, gender, employment type, income, and asset holdings, and incorporate the Japanese pension rules. Using existing pension law, current fiscal policy, and medium variants of demographic projections, we produce future paths for government expenditures and tax revenues, with implications for government debt and the public pension fund. Additional pension reform, a higher consumption tax, and higher female labor force participation help achieve fiscal stability.     

诠释与模拟:养老金隐性债务及其显性化

为没有资金积累的养老金隐性债务寻求合适的融资渠道是我国养老金制度改革中最为迫切的问题。突破以往研究中只注重养老金隐性债务存量概念的局限,试图对养老金隐性债务及其显性化问题建立一个理论分析框架,根据现收现付和基金积累两种养老金融资模式的运行特征,论述不同转轨方式的选择对养老金隐性债务显性化速度和程度的影响,为进一步深入研究养老金隐性债务问题提供新的视角。     

Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition

The aim of this paper is to quantify the welfare effects of some currently discussed pension reform proposals in Germany. The analysis is based on an extended overlapping-generations model which accounts for intra-generational heterogeneity, rising life expectancy and declining fertility. Given a baseline path of the economy under the existing unfunded pension system, the model calculates the macroeconomic impact as well as the distributional and efficiency effects of various pension reform measures aimed at reducing the level of the future unfunded pension system. Simulations reveal that pension reforms cannot be evaluated solely in terms of inter- and intra-generational equity. Substantial efficiency gains or losses might arise if the linkage between contributions and benefits is improved or weakened.     

多层次养老保险协同发展的联动机制及配套政策研究

全面建成多层次社会保障体系是党的十九大报告确定的重要指导原则，推进养老保险多层次协同发展是深化社会保障改革的重中之重。本文通过对基本养老保险实际费率和替代率的测算发现补充养老保险发展存在较大空间；通过分解个人账户基金现值及权益，尝试在多层次体系下建立不同养老保险制度间的转换衔接通道。本文研究发现，允许个人账户基金纵向转续是弱化多层次挤出效应的重要方式，能够在保证第一层次覆盖率的前提下促进二三层次扩面。     

PENSION FUNDING IN A UNIONIZED ECONOMY

This paper analyzes the effects of pension funding for a small open economy in which wages are subject to bargaining. Using an overlapping-generations framework, we show that a reform away from a Pay-As-You-Go towards a funded pension system will be Pareto improving only if the reform results in a reduction in the steady-state unemployment rate. However, the reduction in the unemployment rate is by no means warranted: although for pension systems which involve a limited amount of intra-generational redistribution this is likely, for systems displaying a high degree of intra-generational redistribution the unemployment rate may well rise thus preventing the realization of welfare gains.     

养老金投资对经济增长的影响研究--一种新的理论视角

养老金投资对经济增长的影响一直是社会保障研究关注的焦点。文章建立了一个内生增长模型,证明了在一定条件下养老金投资对经济增长具有正效应,并由此提出相应的政策建议。     

中国城镇养老保险制度改革的收入分配效应

在公共养老保险制度下,可以通过调整养老保险的缴费率或养老金计发办法来影响参保人一生中的养老金纯受益,从而实现代际间和代际内的收入再分配。本文利用中国国家统计局2002年的城市住户调查数据,分别估计城镇参保职工在1997年养老保险制度和2005年最新养老保险制度下的终生养老金纯受益,并以此从代际间和代际内的角度对中国养老保险制度改革的收入分配效应进行定量分析。分析表明:在1997年的改革方案下改革前的养老保险制度中存在的逆向收入转移效果得到改善;但在2005年改革方案下,2002年时40岁以上的群体中存在较明显的逆向收入转移倾向。另一方面,从代际分配来看,1997年改革方案的代际不平衡大于2005年改革方案;在2005年改革方案下各代人的养老金纯受益都有所提高,但这是以养老保险制度的缴费率和养老金计发办法不变,养老财政收支能维持平衡以及参保人在整个工作期间按规定缴费为前提的。     

Social security and retirement incentives in Austria

This paper provides an overview of the interaction between social security and retirement behavior in Austria in the decades up to the on-going reform process. The key question is, how much of the retirement behavior can be attributed to incentive effects of the pension system. We describe the labor market and retirement behavior of the elderly in Austria, survey the key features of the public pension system and finally present the results of a series of simulations aimed at assessing the retirement incentives generated by the pension system. We compute levels and accrual rates of social security wealth and implicit tax rates on continued work according to the method portrayed in Gruber and Wise [Gruber J, Wise D (1999) Social security and retirement around the world. University of Chicago Press, Chicago London]. To some extent, the sharp drop in labor force participation among the elderly must be attributed to major disincentives of the Austrian pension system; the system turns out to provide significant incentives to retire early. Past reforms have reduced the disincentives. Our results, however, show the need to further reform the public pension scheme and to reorient it stronger towards the principle of actuarial fairness.     

An inter-temporal general equilibrium analysis of the Australian age pension means test

The Australian age pension is somewhat unusual among developed countries in that it is means tested against both the claimant’s income and assets. While means testing of age pensions facilitates the aims of directing public pensions to those senior individuals most in need and of containing pension expenditures by governments, it also has the effect of changing the incentives of individuals to work and save. This paper examines the implications of the Australian means tested age pension for incentives of individuals to save and work, for government financial commitments and for the welfare of individuals. To this end, we develop an overlapping generations model of the Australian economy that incorporates the essential features of the Australian pension, superannuation and taxation policy settings and use it to explore the implications of several hypothetical policy changes that relax the means test of the age pension. Our results confirm that the existing means-tested, age pension represents a disincentive for some older Australians to work.     

关于缩小企业与机关事业单位养老金差距的研究述评

受养老保险制度"碎片化"影响,我国机关事业单位与企业的养老金存在较大差距且逐渐拉大,成为社会保障制度建设中不得不解决的问题。制度分割导致的养老金"双轨"运行,是导致企业与机关事业单位养老金待遇差距的主要原因。要缩小这种差距必须从改革模式和制度设计两方面入手。而公务员养老制度能否和事业单位一起改革、第二支柱养老保险能否真正发挥作用、养老保险改革是否会联动其他制度改革等问题,直接影响养老金制度改革的成败。     

机关、事业和企业联动的“新养老策论”

文章针对2008年《事业单位工作人员养老保险制度改革试点方案》的若干不足之处,提出了机关、事业和企业三单位联动的养老保险制度改革方案。在明确新养老策论基本含义和内涵的基础上,分析了新养老策论提出的动因和背景,重点探讨了新养老策论提出的理论与现实依据,以及如何完善和实施等问题。新养老策论可以为我国特别是城镇养老保险制度改革提供重要思路和解决路径。     

Effects of future pension benefits on pre-retirement labor supply: Evidence from Chile

In this paper, I estimate the effect of future pension benefits on pre-retirement labor supply for a representative sample of Chilean workers. Using nonlinear patterns in pension benefit formulas and a reform that permanently changed non-contributory pensions, I estimate the effect of pension accrual and expected pension wealth on labor force and contributory-sector participation, labor earnings, and hours worked. I find that the effect is concentrated on the impact of pension accrual on the probability to contribute to the pension system. The effect is heterogeneous and is concentrated among middle-aged workers, low-skilled workers, and workers with higher financial literacy.     

Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return

Abstract. This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre‐funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized closed‐economy, overlapping‐generations model to compare the effects of the recent German pension reform with those of a more decisive reform that would freeze the current pay‐as‐you‐go contribution rate and thus result in a larger funded component of the pension system. We predict rates of return to capital under both reform scenarios over a long horizon, taking demographic projections as given. Our main finding is that the future decrease in the rate of return is much smaller than often claimed in the public debate. Our simulations show that the capital stock will decrease once the baby‐boom generations enter retirement, even if there were no fundamental pension reform. The corresponding decrease in the rate of return, the direct effect of population aging, is around 0.7 percentage points. While the capital market effects of the recent German pension reform are marginal, the rate of return to capital would decrease by an additional 0.5 percentage points under the more decisive reform proposal.     

缩小企业与机关事业单位退休职工养老金差距问题研究

企业与机关事业单位退休职工养老金存在较大差距,从2002年开始,这个差距在400元以上;企业退休职工平均养老金占机关事业单位平均养老金的70%及以下,这极大地损害了社会保障制度的公平原则。缩小企业与机关事业单位退休职工养老金的差距需要加快事业单位分类改革、分阶段实施养老金“双轨”改革、完善企业（职业）年金制度等。     

The Management of Market-Oriented Economies: A Comparative Perspective

The 1981 reform of the Chilean pension system was revolutionary at its time. It was the first instance of a mature public Pay-As-You-Go social security system being converted into a mandatory defined contribution system managed by the private sector. This paper contends that a unique confluence of events were responsible for this change. The rise of a dictatorship in Chile, a struggling public retirement system, and a cadre of Chicago oriented economists determined to make Chile a model free market neoliberal economy. This was later followed by the Washington Consensus and the promotion of Chilean reform by the World Bank. This paper analyzes the Chilean reform and its subsequent development; evaluating it on both efficiency and equity grounds. While the evidence for efficiency gains is mixed there is little doubt that equity has suffered under the new system. Nevertheless, it continues to evolve and equity concerns are increasingly being addressed.     

Why Sweden's pension reform was able to be successfully implemented

Governments that do not reform pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension systems will eventually face a pension crisis. In a democracy, reforms require majority support. The problem is that pension reform requires today's generation to bear the burden to avoid burdening tomorrow's generation. Sweden recently passed pension legislation that specifies a gradual transition from a public defined-benefit plan to a defined contribution plan. Why was Sweden successful in reforming its pension system? We find that a political economy perspective helps to answer this question: there are more winners who would vote in favour of the reform than non-winners who would vote against it. When comparing the net effect (present value of expected benefits minus present value of remaining contributions) of the new and old systems, contributions of the working generation (age < 53) are reduced by more than their expected benefits.     

我国城镇养老保险存在的问题及完善对策

经过多年的改革与发展,我国城镇养老保险事业取得了长足的进步,但是仍然存在诸多问题。在人口老龄化和城市化进程的双重挑战下,迫切需要对我国城镇养老保险面临的困境及对策进行深入的研究。论文分析了我国城镇养老保险在公平性、效率性、保险制度及其运行中存在的主要问题,并在此基础上提出了改进的对策建议。