中国文化产品贸易流量及出口潜力测算——基于引力模型的实证分析

本文以1992²010年间中国与26个国家(地区)的双边文化贸易数据为样本,利用引力模型实证分析了中国文化产品贸易流量的影响因素及出口潜力。研究结果表明:中国的经济规模、进口国的经济规模、人均GDP、贸易开放度以及优惠贸易安排对中国文化产品出口有明显的促进作用;空间距离、文化距离与中国文化产品的出口规模负相关。文化距离的影响远大于空间距离的影响,加强对外文化沟通,克服"文化折扣"现象,对促进中国文化产品的出口至关重要。在26个样本中,中国只与7个国家(地区)的文化贸易存在"贸易过度",与其他19个国家(地区)的文化贸易存在"贸易不足",中国文化产品具有较大的出口潜力,但需针对性地开展文化贸易。     

CAREC成员国贸易便利化对中国进出口贸易的影响

2007年以来,中国与CAREC成员国之间的进出口贸易额保持较快增长,但同时CAREC国家间仍旧存在口岸通关不畅、跨国交通基础设施落后、政策透明度低且变动频繁等制约贸易便利化水平提高的因素。因此,确定并定量测算出CAREC成员国贸易便利化水平对中国进出口贸易所产出影响的因素及程度具有重大意义。研究发现:对进口而言,CAREC成员国减少出口证件数和缩短出口时间有利于中国对其进口规模的扩大,但由于中亚地区在中国能源合作中的重要战略地位,CAREC成员国出口成本与中国进口贸易额呈正相关;在出口方面,CAREC成员国缩短进口时间和降低进口成本刺激了中国对其出口的增加,而潜在的巨大市场空间使进口证件数与出口贸易额呈正相关。     

中国对外直接投资的贸易效应研究

本文使用1996～2010年中国对18个国家(地区)直接投资与进出口贸易的面板数据进行实证研究。结果表明,中国对主要东道国(地区)的直接投资具有明显的进出口创造效应;中国对资源丰裕类国家的直接投资具有最强的出口创造与进口创造效应,对发达经济体的直接投资具有较强的出口创造与进口创造效应,对新兴经济体及其他发展中国家的直接投资具有较强的出口创造效应与较弱的进口创造效应。     

中国与金砖国家间农产品贸易成本弹性测度与分析

本文在Novy(2013)超越对数引力模型基础上把国内民主化程度作为政治因素从出口国和进口国两条路径引入该模型对其进行改进,并利用改进后的模型对中国与金砖国家部分农产品贸易成本弹性分别进行测度。结果显示中国与金砖国家农产品贸易成本弹性均为正,中国与金砖国家通过降低贸易成本均可提高贸易量。然而中国出口与进口贸易成本弹性差值均为负,中国总体不具有相对优势。从细分产品结构来看,中国可以优先考虑本国优势产品,重点在优势产品领域积极推进贸易自由化和便利化。中国与金砖国家存在产业内贸易潜力较大产品,中国可以与金砖国家在不同层次加深农业分工与合作,分散中国农产品贸易风险,实现对外贸易多元化和可持续发展。     

中国普惠金融发展对贸易边际及结构的影响

研究目标：考察中国普惠金融发展对贸易边际及结构的影响。研究方法：首先从理论上探讨了普惠金融发展对于贸易的影响,提出普惠制金融发展不仅会从集约边际和扩展边际两个方面影响贸易的规模,而且会因为行业间外部融资依赖度的差异而影响贸易的结构。然后,运用我国10个省份15个制造行业2004~2013年的数据,检验了普惠金融发展对于地区出口的影响。研究发现：普惠金融的发展对于出口总体上具有促进作用,不过,普惠金融对于出口的影响在行业上具有显著的异质性,总体来说,在外部融资依赖度较高的行业,普惠金融发展对于出口呈现出较多正向影响,而在外部融资依赖度较低的行业,普惠金融发展对于出口越多呈现出较多负向影响。研究创新：理论上研究了普惠金融发展与国际贸易边际的关系,并运用中国的数据进行了验证。研究价值：对于促进中国普惠金融体系的构建和贸易转型升级具有一定的政策启示。     

中国服务贸易出口效率及其影响因素——来自“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易实践证据

文章构建了随机前沿引力模型和“一步法”的贸易非效率模型,估算了54个“一带一路”沿线国家在2005—2019年间中国服务贸易出口效率以及探究了中国服务贸易出口效率的影响因素。结果表明：在随机前沿模型中,进口国的人口数量、中国与进口国的人均国民生产总值、共同边界和共同语言对中国服务贸易出口效率起促进作用,中国总人口数量和两国间的地理距离对服务贸易出口效率具有抑制作用,地理距离对服务贸易出口效率的作用不显著;在贸易非效率项中,制度距离、进口国城镇化水平、综合贸易成本等因素对中国服务贸易出口效率具有抑制作用,经济距离、中国与进口国的经济自由度和中国直接投资对服务贸易出口效率提升有明显的促进作用。中国对“一带一路”沿线国家服务贸易出口效率偏低,不同地区有较大差距,应进一步提升中国服务业出口竞争力,加强与“一带一路”沿线国家交流。     

人民币实际有效汇率与中国进出口贸易地区分布动态面板数据模型分析

文章基于1985年～2006年中国31省、市自治区数据,建立动态面板数据模型考察了人民币实际有效汇率等变量影响地区进出口贸易的动态效应和地区差异。结果表明,人民币实际有效汇率对不同地区影响差异显著,出口方面,西部地区受汇率影响最为显著,人民币实际有效汇率升值1%,东部地区出口下降0.51%,而西部地区下降1.36%;进口方面,中部地区受汇率影响最为显著,人民币实际有效汇率升值1%,西部地区进口下降0.56%,而中部地区进口下降1.65%。     

进口如何影响了文化贸易联系持续期

如何看待一国进口对于贸易联系持续期的影响效应？与以往对贸易联系持续期的分析多聚焦在出口目的国等宏观层面,本文基于微观产品层面视角,采用负二项分布等多种估计模型,对文化产品进口的影响效应进行了实证分析。本文发现,进口对于文化产品的贸易联系持续期具有一定的促进效应,并且这种影响效应显著存在于贸易持续期较短的样本,即进口能够提升出口商的“学习效应”,降低文化出口的生存风险。同样,较低的出口价格、较高的初始贸易额对于贸易联系持续期的稳定也具有一定的正向影响。本文多种稳健性估计结果均验证了上述结论。因此,要审慎认识和把握文化产品进口对于贸易平稳发展的重要意义,适时调整文化贸易政策,这可能有利于中国文化贸易国际竞争力的提升。     

产品内贸易对中国贸易顺差的影响机制分析

近些年中国贸易顺差持续拉大,原因之一就是20世纪70年代兴起的产品内贸易。在全球专业分工中,处于＂微笑曲线＂中不同位置的国家通过不同的机制对中国的贸易顺差产生影响。文章详细分析欧美、日韩、东盟等重要国家与地区的影响机制,对中国贸易顺差从全球分工角度做出了全面的解释。在实证分析中,通过经验数据,运用格兰杰因果检验以及协整检验得出结论,产品内贸易与顺差之间有显著的因果关系,且存在长期稳定的均衡关系。因此,建议我国应该紧跟全球分工趋势,完善加工贸易政策、加大进口规模,加快产业结构调整,发展良性循环,根据当前产品内贸易对顺差的重要影响针对性地实施平衡贸易顺差的政策举措。     

中间品贸易自由化、增加值出口与生产率进步

本文在测算增加值出口和多边增加值全要素生产率指数的基础上,利用世界投入产出数据库和关税数据,系统考察中间品贸易自由化、增加值出口对生产率进步的影响,并细致区分不同国家的增加值出口和不同行业的影响差异,多种方案的稳健性检验和中介效应均证实结论的可靠性。研究发现：首先,无论是总体回归还是分国别回归,增加值出口显著促进了生产率进步,且对美国、欧盟和日韩等发达国家的增加值出口的生产率效应强于对金砖国家和印尼等新兴国家及发展中国家。其次,考虑到中间品贸易自由化的交互影响,增加值出口强化了中间品贸易自由化的生产率效应,且对制造业中间品贸易自由的生产率效应的强化作用要小于对服务业中间品贸易自由化的生产率效应的强化作用。此外,通过中介效应模型验证中间品关税的下降能够增加进口的中间品种类,进而有利于行业生产率的提升。     

Women and corruption: evidence from multinational panel data

In this paper we investigate whether the ratio of female population is related with lower corruption, utilizing a multinational panel data with 80 countries for the period 2000–2012 and employing the Generalized Method of Moments as well as the ordered probit regression methods. This is the first study on the impacts of different female groups on corruption. Overall speaking, the estimation results are pluralistic. Higher female ratios in the legislative branch and in the labor force are significantly associated with a lower level of corruption, while the female ratio in secondary enrollment is positively related with corruption; however, the female ratio of the whole population has insignificant impacts on corruption. The policy implications are that a simple enhanced female ratio and educational level are not the effective way to inhibit corruption in our sample countries, whereas improvements of the female ratio in the legislative branch and the labor force contribute to controlling corruption. These results are basically robust for the two estimation methods and for the two subsamples of developed and developing countries. As a result, the estimation results on the relationship between corruption and gender might vary remarkably when different indicators for the female groups are utilized, which should some light on future studies.     

中国增加值出口贸易的就业效应及其影响因素研究

本文借助多区域投入产出（MRIO）模型测算了中国1995～2009年22个行业的增加值出口及其就业效应,并利用结构分解法（SDA）分析了中国增加值出口贸易的就业效应的影响因素。研究结果发现：总体而言,2000～2009年增加值出口对各行业总就业的边际拉动量均趋于下降,但对大部分行业总就业的拉动量趋于增加。从分技能来看,增加值出口对低技能劳动力就业增长的贡献最大,中等技能劳动力次之,高技能劳动力最小。尽管增加值出口对中国高技能劳动力就业的拉动作用相对较弱,但其呈现强劲的上升态势。进一步考察增加值出口贸易的就业效应的影响因素发现,最终品和中间品出口规模扩张是增加值出口的就业拉动量增加的主要驱动因素,而劳动投入产出系数变动是抑制增加值出口的就业拉动量增加的主要因素。     

EXPORTS, URBAN GROWTH, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES

Several cross-countries regression analyses have revealed that exports positively contribute to economic growth in less developed countries, implying that apart from the increases in the stocks of labor and capital, growth can also be stimulated by reallocating resources from the less efficient non-export sector to the more productive export sector. This paper re-specifies the relation between exports and economic growth for non-urban goods exporting African countries. The impact of exports on the growth rate of national income is analyzed along with that of the growth of population in the urban region.     

商品贸易结构变动对劳动收入份额的影响

本文从贸易结构变动出发为研究我国劳动收入份额变动的原因提供一种新的视角。近年来我国商品贸易结构发生了重要变动。理论分析表明,对外贸易不仅通过国际分工和专业化对劳动收入份额产生直接影响,还通过要素密集度变化和技术进步偏向等机制产生间接影响;实证研究发现,出口发展对我国劳动收入份额具有显著的负向作用,进口发展则具有正向作用。进出口贸易对不同要素密集度行业的影响程度与方向存在差异。     

人民币升值对中国制造业影响的动态CGE研究

本文设计四种不同的汇率升值情景,利用一个中国经济的动态CGE模型—MCHUGE模拟分析了人民币升值对我国制造业的影响。研究结果表明:在人民币汇率升值的过程中,各行业进出口量的增长具有缩小效应,且人民币汇率升值依然会使制造业各行业产值有所上升;在相同的进口替代弹性下,出口商品数量的减少与国内商品转换弹性正相关;当人民币汇率升值,食品、纺织、化工、金属、机械行业的国内商品价格增幅随进口替代弹性的增大而降低。     

中国与印度贸易摩擦的原因及对策分析

随着中印双边贸易发展迅速,中国已成为印度的第二大贸易伙伴,印度也已成为中国在南亚地区最大的贸易伙伴。但印度对华贸易保护呈现愈演愈烈之势。在WTO成员国中,印度是金融危机以来对我国发起贸易救济案件最多的国家,两国间的贸易摩擦问题已不容忽视。本文通过对总贸易额、进出口商品构成、反倾销的比例等数据的比较,从宏观、政策和产业三个角度,分析了中印贸易摩擦存在的原因,并从政府、行业协会和进出口商会、企业的角度,制定出应对中印贸易摩擦的对策建议。     

The impact of purchasing power parity on auto foreign trade

In this study, the validity of the assumption saying that the import and export are a function of prices as in the classical, neo-classical approaches is studied within the framework of the import and export of automobile vehicles between 1997 and 2003 in Turkey and the EU countries which are automobile manufacturers. The price here is considered as the purchasing power parity. The effect of the purchasing power parity on the automobile import and export is determined by using classical models with constant coefficients, and fixed and random effects models with constant slope coefficients and a constant term differing according to units and/or time. The models comprise balanced linear panel data models. The likelihood ratio test and F-test are used in the selection of fixed effects and classical models; and the Lagrange multiplier test is used in the selection of random effects and classical models. As for the selection of fixed and random effects models, the Hausman test is used. As a result of these tests, the fixed effects models covering both individual and time effects are selected as the most appropriate import and export models.     

Remittances and economic growth in Africa, Asia, and Latin American-Caribbean countries: a panel unit root and panel cointegration analysis

This study estimates the macroeconomic impact of remittances and some control variables such as openness of the economy, capital/labor ratio, and economic freedom on the economic growth of African, Asian, and Latin American-Caribbean countries using newly developed panel unit-root tests, cointegration tests, and Panel Fully Modified OLS (PFMOLS). We use annual panel data from 1985–2007for 64 countries consisting of 29 from Africa, 14 from Asia, and 21 from Latin America and the Caribbean region, respectively. We find that remittances, openness of the economy, and capital labor ratio have positive and significant effect on economic growth for all regions as a group and in each of the three in study. While the economic freedom index also has a positive and significant effect on growth in Africa and Latin America, however, its effect on the economic growth of Asia is mixed.     

Factors of trade in Europe

We analyze how a set of determinants affect trade among European countries over the period 1992–2008. The factors encompass variables from the areas of geography, culture, institutions, infrastructure, and trade direction. Trade is analyzed for four types of goods: primary goods, parts and components, capital goods, and consumer goods. For each type of good we also distinguish its definition in terms of flows, intensive margin, and extensive margin. Methodologically, we first derive country-pair fixed effects over all possible pairs of export–import partners, and in the second stage we relate fixed effects with a set of influential factors. We show (i) the intuitive and varying effects of geographical, cultural, and institutional factors; (ii) the beneficial effects of soft and hard infrastructure; and (iii) the key importance of trade between old and new EU members.     

The exchange rate and machinery and equipment imports: Identifying the impact of import source and export destination country currency valuation changes

This paper presents estimates of the impact of exchange rate movements on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports. Many countries have become increasingly reliant on imports of these types of products and evidence in a number of studies indicates that investment in machinery and equipment contributes to improved productivity and growth. Unlike previous studies, this study differentiates between exchange rate movements with respect to machinery and equipment import source and final good export destination countries. Data are employed for two machinery and equipment importing countries, Australia and Canada, and two exporting countries, Japan and the U.S. The results indicate that a currency depreciation with respect to an import source country has a significant negative effect on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports, while a depreciation with respect to a domestic final good export destination country has a significant positive effect. These findings imply that the net impact on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports of an exchange rate change with respect to a particular country will depend on the extent to which that country is a supplier of machinery and equipment imports and a market for domestic exports.