税收的静态可计算一般均衡模型分析

建立研究中国税收问题的可计算一般均衡模型是一般均衡模型是本文进行探讨的目的,经过大量简化处理,本文建立的税收可计算一般均衡模型模拟了经济运行情况,并有侧重地讨论了我国三大流转税（增值税、消费税和营业税）的经济影响。同时,该简化模型的方法也为进上步推进中国税收可计算均衡模型研究工作打下基础。     

Externality Policy Reform: A General Equilibrium Analysis

We characterize Pareto‐improving and equilibrium‐preserving policy reforms in a second‐best (Diamond/Mirrlees) world with a consumption externality. A counterintuitive finding is that, starting from an initial equilibrium with no direct quantity control on the externality, it is possible that all Pareto‐improving and equilibrium‐preserving directions of change require an increase in a negative externality. We provide intuition for these results by establishing a nexus between Guesnerie's approach to designing (tax) policy reforms and the standard Kuhn–Tucker technique for identifying the manifold of feasible Pareto‐optimal states, given the instruments available to the policy maker.     

Economic Integration Among Taiwan, Hong Kong and China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper investigates the effects of economic integration among Taiwan, Hong Kong and China (CEA). A seven-region, seven-sector computable general equilibrium model for world production and trade is developed for this purpose. The simulation results demonstrate that the three Chinese economies would benefit greatly from further integration by means of liberalizing trade policies. The opportunity cost of isolating the United States from East Asia is high for both the US and the three Chinese economies, suggesting that an economically integrated CEA is in the long-term strategic interest of the United States.     

Impact Of Tariff Reduction On Structural Employment In China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

The paper studies the effect of tariff reduction on employment in China. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis, a model simulates the structural adjustment in the Chinese economy as a result of tariff cuts and predicts their quantitative impacts on structural unemployment during the adjustment period. It is concluded that the structural unemployment in China caused by tariff reduction is not as serious as some have claimed. The technique of study on structural unemployment can be extended to other countries to analyze the impact of trade reform.     

增值税税率降低和加计抵减政策的经济效应评估-基于动态可计算一般均衡模型的研究

文章在2017年中国投入产出表的基础上,编制了社会核算矩阵,构建含有增值税抵扣机制的动态可计算一般均衡模型,测度了2018年以来增值税改革政策的经济效应.研究发现,作为税率式优惠政策,增值税税率降低能够产生良好的整体减税效应,降低了多数行业的增值税税负;但由于金融业、现代服务业和生活服务业的增值税税率没有下降,其他行业税率下降导致这三个行业的进项税额减少,增值税税负有所上升.作为税额式优惠政策,增值税加计抵减具有非常良好的定向减税效果,在一定程度上对冲了生产、生活性服务业的税负上升.增值税税率降低能够改善税收的扭曲,提高经济运行效率,促进各行业的增加值增长,而加计抵减政策则略微抑制了产出增长.动态来看,随着时间的推移,增值税税率降低政策的经济增长效应在持续扩大,加计抵减政策对经济的抑制效应在逐渐减弱.两类降低税负的政策都提高了企业利润和居民收入水平,政府的企业所得税和个人所得税收入增长,但受增值税收入下降影响,政府总体税收收入出现了一定幅度的下滑.     

A Normative Analysis of Housing-Related Tax Policy in a General Equilibrium Model of Housing Quality and Prices

We evaluate an array of housing-related tax policies in a general equilibrium model with endogenous housing quality and prices. The local government facilitates the provision of local public amenities, financed by an array of housing-related taxes, including a developer gross revenue tax, a property tax, a land tax, and a development license fee. In a competitive spatial equilibrium, all households optimize and reach the same utility, all monopolistically competitive developers optimize and receive zero profit, and both housing and land markets clear. We examine the effects of various tax policies on housing quality, housing prices, land rent, as well as the population and housing density. By evaluating quantitatively the welfare of the local economy, we establish a globally optimal tax scheme in the housing market: complete elimination of the property tax and imposition of a lower gross revenue tax (possibly fully eliminated) than both development and land taxes.     

The Welfare Impact of Self-supplied Water Pricing in Canada: A Computable General Equilibrium Assessment

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to assess the welfare cost of changing the method of water allocation in Canada towards one that uses prices to ration demand. We model the introduction of a price on both water that is abstracted as well as water that is consumed (that is abstracted, and not returned to the source). We estimate that reducing water consumption by 25 % would require imposition of a price on water consumption of around $$\$0.21/\text{ m }^{3}$$ . Similarly, introduction of a water abstraction charge of about $$\$0.013/\text{ m }^{3}$$ would be sufficient to reduce water abstraction by 25 %. We find that if revenues from water pricing are returned in lump sum to households, the introduction of water pricing would result in a modest welfare loss. When revenues from water pricing are used to offset existing taxes, we find a gain in welfare corresponding to a ‘strong double dividend.’     

Quantifying Central Hypotheses on Environmental Kuznets Curves for a Rich Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Study

We investigate whether the future relationships between several pollutants and per capita income in rich countries may assume the inverted U‐forms of Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC). The emission‐augmenting effect of scaling up aggregate economic activity can be counteracted by greener composition of production and consumption, technological progress, and increased demand for environmental quality and policy. To quantify the importance of these central hypotheses, we use a CGE model with endogenous policy for Norway. Our results suggest significant future effects of all these three counteracting mechanisms. For most local and regional pollutants, they may be strong enough to prolong the falling emission trends. However, we cannot rely on reductions in emissions of climate gases and some transport‐related local pollutants. Our results also indicate that pollution leakages abroad are likely to take place.     

人民币均衡汇率:一般均衡下单方程协整模型实证研究

基于国内外关于人民币均衡汇率的相关研究,本文建立了一般均衡下单方程协整模型,并利用单位根检验、协整分析、误差修正模型对人民币均衡汇率进行实证研究后认为:20世纪80年代以来,人民币实际有效汇率始终围绕均衡汇率波动,并经历了不同程度的高估和低估;贸易条件、开放度等基本经济因素对人民币实际有效汇率影响显著,而财政政策、货币政策、外汇储备规模对人民币实际有效汇率的影响不显著;人民币汇率错位自我修正能力较强,参考一篮子货币能较好地反映人民币实际有效汇率的波动。     

Public Enterprise Privatization: A General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper develops a general equilibrium model to examine the short‐run and long‐run optimal privatization policies. By assuming that all firms are public firms initially, the paper focuses on how the degree of product differentiation γ and the average efficiency of the industry influence the determination of the optimal privatization policy. The paper shows that privatization decreases the more efficient firms' outputs while increases the less efficient firms' outputs in the short run, and reduces all firms' outputs in the long run. The paper also shows that the larger is γ and the smaller is the number of firms, the more privatized will be the public firm in the short run. Moreover, as γ or the entry barrier f_E is sufficiently small, full privatization is the best policy in the long run. On the contrary, as γ and f_E are large enough, partial privatization is optimal.     

转轨国家的机制性腐败:一个一般均衡模型

本文通过一个一般均衡模型考察腐败对经济福利，分工的网络规模以及社会生产力的影响，我们首先计算了在每个个体均可自由择业的市场经济中的瓦尔拉斯均衡。然后考察当一个特权集团被选定为高层管理者时对社会福利产生的影响；最后考虑在管理者通过其代理人而形成共谋时的情形，即机制性腐败，此时，这个代理人通过索取一笔相当于贿赂的进入费用来为管理者的利益服务，而这时的管理者服务的价格仍然由一个瓦尔拉斯市场的供给和需求决定。该模型表明腐败增加了转轨国家特权集团（包括腐败的官员以及与其密切联关的人）的福利，并以牺牲大众的利益为代价。     

The Determination of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in a Simple General Equilibrium Model

In this article, we develop an analytical general equilibrium model of the equilibrium exchange rate for emerging countries. This theoretical framework allows us to identify a relevant set of variables which determinate the equilibrium exchange rate and to explore how these variables influence the trajectory of the equilibrium exchange rate.     

The Optimal Speed of Transition: A General Equilibrium Analysis

We present a benchmark model for the optimal speed of transition from a state-owned to a private market economy, based on the consumption-savings decision in a closed economy. We abstract from frictions to focus on the macroeconomic conditions for accumulation of private capital and closure or restructuring of state-owned enterprises. It is shown that hard budget constraints compensate for too slow speed of enterprise closure but that an excess speed of closure may slow down transition because of output contraction effects. This will especially be the case if such a deviation occurs at early stages of transition.     

A stochastic estimated version of the Italian dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper aims at identifying the main drivers of the Italian economic cycle. To this end, we estimate a small-open economy model based on a dual labor market, which captures the main features of the Italian economy. Our results indicate that labor market rigidities are important structural features of the Italian economy, but they provide a limited contribution in explaining the business cycle fluctuations. Long-term dynamics are mostly driven by supply factors (productivity and markups). However, demand factors, including monetary and fiscal policies, play a sizeable role in the short run. Policy experiments show that expansionary fiscal policies crowd out private consumption and investment. The paper also contributes to the recent debate on fiscal consolidation. Estimated fiscal multipliers support the view that plans aimed at reducing the public debt should be based on tax increases rather than expenditure cuts.     

Migration, Jobs and Welfare: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Immigration has been an important element of the economic development of many countries, although in recent years there has been an intensification of doubts about the benefits of further immigration. This paper brings some simple general‐equilibrium modelling tools to bear on the question of the employment and welfare effects of immigration. Employment and taxation effects, rather than wage and distributional effects, are found to be crucial in determining the impact of immigration on the welfare of factor‐owners in the receiving country. These employment effects depend on the type of immigration and the substitutability or complementarity relationships between immigrant labour and unemployed labour. Certain types of immigration are shown to be Pareto‐improving for the receiving country, without any need for lump‐sum transfers. Simple numerical simulations illustrate the results.     

减免东盟农产品进口关税对中国宏观经济和产业影响的可计算一般均衡分析

Chingem模型是一个中国静态CGE模型.在Chingem模型的基础上,按照中国与东盟达成的"早期收获方案",模拟2006年减免东盟原六国农产品进口关税对中国宏观经济和产业的短期影响.研究表明,减免东盟六国农产品进口关税有利于我国经济增长,其中经济增长的动力来源于就业水平的提高;国内价格水平会下降,如CPI下降了0.11%;出口增长高于进口增长,贸易顺差有增加的趋势;促进了制造业的发展,其中纺织部门受益最大;羊毛部门受纺织业的拉动产出增长,而其它的农业和服务业部门影响轻微.     

Publicly Provided Private Goods and Redistribution: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Public provision of private goods is examined within a self-selection framework where production depends on labour supply of different households and the level of public provision. It is shown that productivity and wage-structure effects can create a role for public provision, even if preferences are weakly separable between goods and leisure. Public provision of education may offer an intuitively appealing case for the production-side impacts. We also address the reasons for public provision in a dynamic, overlapping generations economy, whereby public provision may affect efficiency and social costs of redistribution of future generations as well.
JEL classification : H 23; H 42     

Voluntary Export Restraints and Economic Welfare: A General Equilibrium Analysis

We derive some sufficient conditions for the Suzumura-Ishikawa proposition on voluntary export restraints to hold when their model is extended to a general equilibrium framework. The sufficient conditions are concerned with the magnitude of income effects which play no role in the partial-equilibrium analysis of Suzumura and Ishikawa.     

A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Technological Innovations in the Banking Sector

Received November 2, 2001; revised version received July 15, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003 I have received helpful comments from Alan J. Sutherland, Peter N. Smith, Michael R. Wickens, Morten O. Ravn, John P. Hutton and an anonymous referee. They are in no way responsible for my interpretations or any errors that the paper may contain.     

The German Business Tax Reform of 2000: A General Equilibrium Analysis

In the year 2000 Germany enacted a major tax reform involving significant cuts in corporate and personal tax rates and a controversial change in the system of dividend taxation. This paper discusses the effects of the business tax reform on the German economy. The analysis is based on a detailed general equilibrium model of the OECD economy which is designed to illustrate the domestic and international effects of national tax policies. The simulations indicate that the German business tax reform will raise domestic economic activity and welfare, although the welfare gain will accrue disproportionately to households with a high ratio of property income to total income.