The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030

Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy.     

Rationale and policies for the green growth of cities and regional economies

By linking environmental quality to economic growth, green growth is emerging as a new paradigm for urban policies. The paper discusses a policy package for green growth of cities and regional economies, made of four interlocking pillars: a) greener public services and purchasing behavior, b) eco-efficiency of industrial production, c) consumer awareness and demand incentives, d) support for research and innovative applications of green technologies. Urban green growth strategies are more likely to succeed if they account for policy interventions in each of these four domains. Prioritization among the different interventions needs to be based on an accurate screening of possible complementarities among the four pillars. Within the strategy, interventions in one domain unlock positive developments in other domains. Synergies and possibilities for leverage do exist at the local level, as well as potentials for policy experimentation. More knowledge of how the local economy works and a strong capacity to pursue interdepartmental and multi-level programs are essential requisite to seize the employment and growth potentials of the low-carbon transition.     

Asia's contribution to global rebalancing

Developing Asia remains at the core of global payment imbalances. While the geographical concentration of current account imbalances is significant—with the People's Republic of China accounting for the lion's share of the region's current account surplus—how Asia contributes to global rebalancing also depends critically on the newly industrialising economies and larger Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. Given the region's huge diversity, the necessary national macroeconomic and structural policies will vary significantly across Asia's emerging economies. Whereas near‐term rebalancing efforts will be driven primarily by macroeconomic and exchange rate policies, structural reforms are essential for boosting domestic and regional demand as sources of economic growth over medium to long‐term. We argue that regional rebalancing will depend critically on the adoption of deeper and more comprehensive structural reforms and further trade liberalisation to unlock the potential of strong domestic and regional spending—thus reducing Asia's high dependence on extra‐regional demand. Priority policies should include infrastructure spending, competition, trade, financial development, investment, immigration, and other social policies to reduce national savings.     

Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Sub‐Saharan Africa

The paper examines the monetary policy actions through which central banks in sub‐Saharan Africa have tried to eliminate the negative impacts of the shocks facing their economies. We compare two different monetary policy regimes: a currency board regime (in the CFA zone) and an inflation targeting policy regime (Ghana and South Africa) when central banks respond to demand, supply, and fiscal shocks. We extend the usual forecasting and policy analysis system models to replicate the economic features of these economies during the period 2002–12 and to evaluate the impact of several policies in response to these shocks. We find that both policies are inappropriate in helping the economies escape from the effects of negative demand shocks, both are essential when negative shocks to primary balance occur, while inflation targeting dominates the currency board regime as a strategy to cope with positive shocks to inflation.     

The growth path of the dynamic Asian economies

The rapid and sustained growth of several Asian economies led researchers, policymakers, and decision‐makers in the world of international business to search for a plausible Asian model of growth. Numerous explanations of the dynamic growth in Asia have been put forward, including the ‘new structuralist’ approach proposed by Lin (2012). This paper examines the various explanations of what these countries did to unleash their growth potential. Industrial policy and market intervention are two such explanations. While the dynamic Asian economies did not flout the Washington Consensus, they adapted it in different ways. The policies that they followed under the Beijing Consensus allowed them to proactively follow pro‐business policies. They also exploited the concepts of economic statism or state capitalism, which became an integral part of what became known as the ‘Asia model’.     

Development and the Environment in Asia

Economic growth and environmental damage are associated, but the relationship is neither linear nor even monotonic. This is clearly seen in the diverse experiences of tropical Asian economies over recent decades. The nature of the growth–environment link depends on the changing composition of production and on growth-related changes in techniques and environmental policies; the enforcement of property rights over natural resources and over air and water quality is another important element. Moreover, environmental and economic policies interact: in effect, every economic policy that affects resource allocation is a de facto environmental measure. One important implication is that the environmental consequences of major policy shifts, such as the 'globalisation' of many tropical Asian economies since about 1980, have been profound. The analytical literature on growth and the environment in Asia tends to agree that environmental damage is costly to regional economies, and has begun to identify and quantify some of the many causal linkages now recognised between economic development and the valuation and use of environmental and natural resource assets.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Services Trade: Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore

Abstract

Services trade is an important source of growth in Malaysia and Singapore. Both economies are export-oriented and actively court foreign direct investment (FDI) to advance their economic objectives of industrialization and economic development. This paper examines the causal linkages between inward FDI and the country's engagement in services trade in bi-variate and tri-variate VAR frameworks. The empirical findings for Singapore show evidence of bi-directional causality between inward FDI and the total trade volume in services (i.e. the absolute sum of payments and receipts) as well as between FDI and services imports (in the tri-variate specification). This may reflect her relative open foreign investment policy and free trade regime in services. For Malaysia, the evidence of causality is weaker and uni-directional, from inward FDI to services imports. These findings are consistent with the different stages of economic development and openness attained by the two sample countries, and they provide useful background for trade and foreign investment policies and development strategies.     

Monetary Policy and the Diversification–Profitability Linkage in Banking: Evidences from Emerging Market Economies

In previous studies, the stance of monetary policy is proven to associate with banking profitability or activities. This paper provides empirical evidence aiming at the influence of monetary policy, including stances of expansionary and contractionary monetary policies, on the relationship between banks' income diversification and their profitabilities in emerging market economies. We find the significant evidence that expansionary monetary policies can raise banks' diversification efforts, whereas contractionary monetary policies weaken the efforts of banking diversification, for which our most robustness tests support these findings. There are some relevant implications and suggestions for bank managers and policymakers.     

Adjustment policies in developing countries: A reassessment

This paper analyses policy responses to external shocks by developing countries in the 1974–1976 and 1979–1981 periods. It is shown that outward-oriented economies relied largely on output-increasing policies of export promotion and import substitution to offset the balance-of-payments effects of external shocks in both periods and accepted a temporary decline in the rate of economic growth in order to limit their external indebtedness. In turn, inward-oriented economies failed to apply output-increasing policies of adjustment. They financed the balance-of-payments effects of external shocks by foreign borrowing in the 1974–1976 period, and had to take deflationary measures in 1979–1981 as their increased indebtedness limited the possibilities for further borrowing. The policies applied led to substantially higher rates of economic growth in outward-oriented than in inward-oriented economies, with the differences in growth rates offsetting the differences in the size of external shocks several times.     

Structural reform,intra-regional trade,and medium-term growth prospects of East Asia and the Pacific—Perspectives from a new multi-region model

This paper analyses the potential benefits from reforms aimed at promoting domestic demand in the region, as well as the effects of slower growth in the US and the G3 (US, euro area, and Japan) on the members of the Executives’ Meeting of East Asian-Pacific Central Bank (EMEAP). The analysis is based on simulation scenarios using an expanded version of the IMF Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) model which is particularly useful for conducting medium-term policy analysis, as it incorporates rich layers of intra-regional trade, production, and demand allowing the transmission mechanism of structural reforms and external shocks to be fully articulated. The simulation results show that reforms to rebalance the pattern of demand in regional economies (such as Mainland China) more towards domestic demand could entail non-negligible benefits for the EMEAP. These benefits could be even larger for those economies that more flexibly adjust to the shift in China's trade pattern. The simulation results also demonstrate that structural reforms in EMEAP economies will allow them to reduce vulnerabilities to economic downturns in major economies.     

Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects

Using a growth accounting framework, we find that developing Asia grew rapidly over the past three decades mainly due to robust growth in capital accumulation. The contributions of education and total factor productivity in the region's past economic growth remain relatively limited. We also make long-run growth projections for developing Asia by combining the growth accounting framework with growth regression approach. Our baseline projections based on the model of conditional convergence show that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates of the 12 developing Asian economies covered by this paper will be consistently lower for the next two decades than their historical performance. However, policy reforms in education, property rights, and research and development can substantially raise GDP growth in the region and partly offset the slowdown in growth caused by the convergence phenomenon. Even under the baseline scenario, the region's share in the world economy will increase from the current 34 percent in 2009 to close to a half in 2030.     

Financial Sector Reforms,Bank Performance and Economic Growth: Evidence from Zambia

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of market‐based financial sector reforms on the competitiveness and efficiency of commercial banks, and economic growth, in Zambia. The results show that reforms adopted in Phase II (strengthening of regulatory and supervisory, payments and settlements, and financial operations frameworks) and Phase III (implementation of a comprehensive financial sector development plan) had significant positive effects on bank cost efficiency. Macroeconomic variables such as per capita GDP and inflation were insignificant. Further, using an endogenous growth model in which industrial production is a proxy for GDP growth, it was found that bank cost efficiency, financial depth, Phase II and III financial sector reforms, the degree of economic openness, and rate of inflation were significant determinants of economic growth. Phase II policies and the inflation rate have negative effects while the rest of the variables have positive effects on economic growth. Some plausible policy lessons are offered.     

How will financial liberalization change the Chinese economy? Lessons from middle-income countries

This study projects the impact of financial liberalization in China by drawing on the experiences of 60 middle-income economies over a period of four decades. Our results suggest that comprehensive financial reform could increase GDP growth per capita by up to 1.4% points and raise the real bank lending rate by up to 5.1% points. Perhaps the most unexpected result is a massive increase in net capital inflows by up to 20.1% of GDP, which could plant seeds for financial risks later. The probability of a currency crisis could increase by up to 21.7% points, but the probability of a banking crisis may rise or fall, depending on the quality of bank supervision. We also find different policy impacts of different financial reform measures. Bank ownership reform and regulatory reform are critical in supporting economic growth and financial stability. These findings offer important policy implications on how to derive maximum benefit from financial reforms while effectively mitigating potential risks.     

Food Security in Asia

Rapid economic and agricultural sector growth have enhanced greatly food security in Asia during the past three decades. Most studies suggest this positive trend will continue into the next century. This paper reviews past trends and future prospects in access and availability of food in Asia at the national level. The paper concludes that the positive overall trend in increased food security relies on the capacity of Asian economies to address several key policy issues, including sustained economic growth, population pressure, structural changes in domestic economies, shifts in international comparative advantage, technological changes, developments in the domestic and international food markets, and environmental sustainability. The paper identifies cost-effective ways to increase food security in light of these issues and suggests that Asia's food security can be maintained only if international and domestic policies, institutional frameworks, and public expenditure patterns are conducive to cost–effective and sustainable agriculture development.     

Medium term economic dynamics of the Euro Area

This paper analysis the Euro area’s growth over the last 15–20 years and provides a medium term outlook. We find that in a no policy change scenario, growth will be subdued, essentially reflecting the influence of weak pre-crisis trends, most notably for TFP (especially since the mid-1990’s). This trend will be exacerbated over the coming decade by the ongoing negative fallout from the financial crisis and by the emerging drag on growth emanating from ageing populations. Unlike in standard recessions, the GDP losses relative to a pre-crisis projection appear to be permanent. The picture presented could potentially improve with the implementation of an ambitious programme of structural reforms focussed on boosting employment and productivity. Since the usefulness of such policies is controversial in the current juncture with constrained monetary policy, the paper also looks at the impact of such reforms in a realistically calibrated model and concludes that fears of large permanent deflationary effects from structural reforms are exaggerated.     

The search for the key: aid, investment and policies in Africa

The traditional aid-to-investment-to growth linkages are notvery robust, especially for African economies. Aid does notnecessarily finance investment and investment does not necessarilypromote growth. Differences in economic policy, on the otherhand, can explain much of the difference in growth performances.Furthermore, domestic politics rather than aid or conditionalityhas been the main determinant of policy reform. Where societiesand governments have succeeded in putting growth-enhancing policiesinto place, aid has provided useful support. The combinationof good policies and aid has created a productive environmentfor private investment and growth.     

Public Procurement and Foreign Direct Investment Across France,Germany, Italy and the UK

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has become an important factor of economic development during the last decades. FDI contributes to the economic growth of the host economy through learning, diffusion of technology, positive externalities and capital inflows. Attracting FDI is currently an objective in its own right for many countries and this paper aims to identify policies affecting the multinational firm’s decision to establish a subsidiary. After accounting for labour productivity and trade openness, cross-section analysis, both industry-wise and country-wise, indicates that public procurement, especially “buy national” policies, and agglomeration economies are statistically significant determinants of FDI. Although our findings pertain to four large European economies, e.g. France, Germany, Italy and the UK, they constitute relevant policy guidelines for developing countries as well.      

我国固定资产投资的投入产出分析

产业投资经济效果是经济增长质量的标志,提高产业投资的经济效果是可持续发展的客观要求,也是提高资源利用效率的客观要求。本文利用投入产出模型分析了我国产业投资的经济效果的现状并提出相应的对策建议,为宏观管理部门提供决策参考。     

The Performance of Development Banks: The Case of the Reconstruction Finance Bank

This paper analyzes the performance of the Reconstruction Finance Bank (RFB) in order to shed light on the role of development banks in fostering economic growth. The RFB played a large role in Japan′s transition from war-time command economy to a market economy in the early post-war period. We use individual firm level data on sales, profits, and loans from the RFB, and find that, initially, the RFB was making loans to firms with below-average performance. We then find that this was partly a result of political interventions into the loan policy of the RFB. In fact, we also find evidence of improvements in the performance of the RFB after its loan policy became more independent. Implications for developing economies are also discussed. J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 1995, 9(4), pp. 486-504. Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 13, Japan.     

Pacific Island Economies: Performance, Growth Prospects and the Impact of the Asian Economic Crisis

The small Pacific island economies are increasingly challenged by globalisation. This paper, drawing on the limited literature, surveys the economic performance and growth prospects of six of the economies for which fair economic data are available, with special reference to the impact of the Asian crisis. Developments and problems are discussed country by country and sector by sector. In conclusion the author indicates the reforms needed to raise living standards in these small countries.