Loan pricing under Basel capital requirements

We analyze the loan pricing implications of the reform of bank capital regulation known as Basel II. We consider a perfectly competitive market for business loans where, as in the model underlying the internal ratings based (IRB) approach of Basel II, a single risk factor explains the correlation in defaults across firms. Our loan pricing equation implies that low risk firms will achieve reductions in their loan rates by borrowing from banks adopting the IRB approach, while high risk firms will avoid increases in their loan rates by borrowing from banks that adopt the less risk-sensitive standardized approach of Basel II. We also show that only a very high social cost of bank failure might justify the proposed IRB capital charges, partly because the net interest income from performing loans is not counted as a buffer against credit losses. A net interest income correction for IRB capital requirements is proposed.     

Credit derivatives and loan pricing

This paper examines the relation between the new markets for credit default swaps (CDS) and banks’ pricing of syndicated loans to US corporates. We find that changes in CDS spreads have a significantly positive coefficient and explain about 25% of subsequent monthly changes in aggregate loan spreads during 2000–2005. Moreover, when compared to traditional explanatory factors, they turn out to be the dominant determinant of loan spreads. In particular, they explain loan rates much better than same rated bonds. This suggests that CDS prices contain, beyond general credit risk, to a substantial extent information relevant for bank lending. We also find that, over time, new information from CDS markets is faster incorporated into loans, but information from other markets is not. Overall, our results indicate that the markets for CDS have gained an important role for banks.     

CCPs and network stability in OTC derivatives markets

Among the reforms to OTC derivative markets since the global financial crisis is a commitment to collateralize counterparty exposures and to clear standardized contracts via central counterparties (CCPs). The reforms aim to reduce interconnectedness and improve counterparty risk management in these important markets. At the same time, however, the reforms necessarily concentrate risk in one or a few nodes in the financial network and also increase institutions’ demand for high-quality assets to meet collateral requirements. This paper looks more closely at the implications of increased CCP clearing for both the topology and stability of the financial network. Building on Heath et al. (2013) and Markose (2012), the analysis supports the view that the concentration of risk in CCPs could generate instability if not appropriately managed. Nevertheless, maintaining CCP prefunded financial resources in accordance with international standards and dispersing any unfunded losses widely through the system can limit the potential for a CCP to transmit stress even in very extreme market conditions. The analysis uses the Bank for International Settlements Macroeconomic Assessment Group on Derivatives (MAGD) data set on the derivatives positions of the 41 largest bank participants in global OTC derivative markets in 2012.     

The welfare cost of bank capital requirements

Capital requirements are the cornerstone of modern bank regulation, yet little is known about their welfare cost. This paper measures this cost and finds that it is surprisingly large. I present a simple framework, which embeds the role of liquidity creating banks in an otherwise standard general equilibrium growth model. A capital requirement limits the moral hazard on the part of banks that arises due to deposit insurance. However, this capital requirement is also costly because it reduces the ability of banks to create liquidity. The key insight is that equilibrium asset returns reveal the strength of households’ preferences for liquidity and this allows for the derivation of a simple formula for the welfare cost of capital requirements that is a function of observable variables only. Using US data, the welfare cost of current capital adequacy regulation is found to be equivalent to a permanent loss in consumption of between 0.1% and 1%.     

The impact of bank regulation on the cost of credit: Evidence from a discontinuity in capital requirements

We study the effect on credit relationships of the Small and Medium Enterprises Supporting Factor (SME-SF), a regulatory risk weight reduction on small loans to SMEs. Employing a regression discontinuity design and matched bank-firm data from Italy, we find that a 1 percent drop in capital requirements causes an average 13 basis points reduction in the cost of credit. Moreover, with a novel measure of bank regulatory capital scarcity, we show that the drop is larger for banks facing tighter constraints. Furthermore, the drop is larger for firms with low switching costs, while the sharp assignment rule may have led to the rationing of marginal borrowers. Such findings indicate that the entire distribution of firms and banks’ characteristics plays a crucial role in determining the impact of regulatory capital changes.     

Empirical credit cycles and capital buffer formation

We model 1927–1997 US business failure rates using an unobserved components time series model. Clear evidence is found of cyclical behavior in default rates. We also detect significant longer term movements in default rates and default correlations. In a multi-year backtest experiment we show that accommodation of default rate dynamics has important consequences for credit risk capitalization requirements. Static or myopic variants of credit portfolio models miss significant periods of credit risk accumulation. Empirically congruent dynamic models by contrast provide more timely warning signals of credit risk build-up. In this way they may mitigate some of the pro-cyclicality concerns.     

Stress tests of capital requirements

This paper examines the performance of the leading methods for setting capital requirements for securities firms' trading books. Tests are conducted on a large sample of UK equity market makers' books over a substantial number of periods of equity market stress from 1985 to 1995. The comprehensive and building-block approaches, favoured by US and European regulators, fail to provide effective cover. Only portfolio-based, value-at-risk (VaR) type models are efficient in providing appropriate levels of capital to cover the position risk of equity trading books.     

Minimum capital requirements,bank supervision and special resolution schemes. Consequences for bank risk-taking

This paper analyzes the incentive effects of special bank resolution schemes which were introduced during the recent financial crisis. These schemes allow regulators to take control over a systemically important financial institution before bankruptcy. We ask how special resolution schemes influence banks’ risk-taking and whether regulators should combine them with minimum capital requirements. We model a single bank which is supervised by a regulator who receives an imperfect signal about the bank's probability of success. We find that capital requirements are better than resolution from a welfare point of view if the quality of the signal is low, if it is difficult for the bank to attract deposits, or if the project return is low.     

Do capital requirements affect cost efficiency? Evidence from China

This paper contributes to the debate on the effect of capital requirements on cost efficiency. We study the relation between capital ratio and cost efficiency for Chinese banks over the period 2004–2009, taking advantage of the profound regulatory changes in capital requirements that occurred during this period to measure the exogenous impact of an increase in the capital ratio on banks’ cost efficiency. We find that such an increase has a positive effect on cost efficiency, the size of which depends to an extent on the bank's ownership type. Our results therefore suggest that capital requirements can improve cost efficiency.     

场外金融衍生品市场监管的国际实践与启示

近年来,全球场外金融衍生品交易的快速发展及次贷危机的爆发暴露出场外金融衍生品市场监管的缺陷和风险管理的不足。我国场外金融衍生品市场尚处于发展初期,如何构建有效的监管体系确保市场健康发展成为我国金融市场建设中面临的重要问题。该文立足于当今国际场外衍生品市场的监管实践,以次贷危机为视角分析场外衍生品市场监管体系的薄弱、不足及将来的监管动向,在此基础上提出了我国场外衍生品市场监管的政策建议。     

Cyclical adjustment of capital requirements: A simple framework

We present a model of an economy with heterogeneous banks that may be funded with uninsured deposits and equity capital. Capital serves to ameliorate a moral hazard problem in the choice of risk. There is a fixed aggregate supply of bank capital, so the cost of capital is endogenous. A regulator sets risk-sensitive capital requirements in order to maximize a social welfare function that incorporates a social cost of bank failure. We consider the effect of a negative shock to the supply of bank capital and show that optimal capital requirements should be lowered. Failure to do so would keep banks safer but produce a large reduction in aggregate investment. The result provides a rationale for the cyclical adjustment of risk-sensitive capital requirements.     

The cyclical effects of the Basel II capital requirements

Capital requirements play a key role in the supervision and regulation of banks. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is in the process of changing the current framework by introducing risk sensitive capital charges. Some fear that this will unduly increase the volatility of regulatory capital. Furthermore, by limiting the banks’ ability to lend, capital requirements may exacerbate an economic downturn. The paper examines the problem of capital-induced lending cycles and their pro-cyclical effect on the macroeconomy in greater detail. It finds that the capital buffer that banks hold on top of the required minimum capital plays a crucial role in mitigating the impact of the volatility of capital requirements.     

Pricing and capital requirements for with profit contracts: modelling considerations

The aim of this paper is to provide an assessment of alternative frameworks for the fair valuation of life insurance contracts with a predominant financial component, in terms of impact on the market consistent price of the contracts, the embedded options, and the capital requirements for the insurer. In particular, we model the dynamics of the log-returns of the reference fund using the so-called Merton (1976 Merton, RC. 1976. Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous. J. Finan. Econ., : 125–144.  [Google Scholar]) process, which is given by the sum of an arithmetic Brownian motion and a compound Poisson process, and the Variance Gamma (VG) process introduced by Madan and Seneta (1990 Madan, DB and Seneta, E. 1990. The variance gamma (VG) model for share market returns. J. Bus., 63: 511–524. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and further refined by Madan and Milne (1991 Madan, DB and Milne, F. 1991. Option pricing with VG martingale components. Math. Finan., 1: 39–45. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) and Madan et al. (1998 Madan, DB, Carr, P and Chang, E. 1998. The variance gamma process and option pricing. Eur. Finan. Rev., 2: 79–105. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). We conclude that, although the choice of the market model does not affect significantly the market consistent price of the overall benefit due at maturity, the consequences of a model misspecification on the capital requirements are noticeable.     

Credit ratings and disclosure channels

We study the relation between analysts’ ratings of firms’ credit worthiness and ratings of the quality of firms’ (1) annual report disclosures, (2) quarterly and other disclosures, and (3) manager-analyst communications. We find that credit ratings are better for firms with higher rated annual report disclosures. We also find that marked increases in analyst ratings of annual report quality are accompanied by improvements in credit ratings. We find no relation between credit ratings and analysts’ ratings of either quarterly report disclosures or management-analyst communications. Overall, the results suggest that a commitment to better annual report disclosure is related to a lower cost of credit capital.     

Credit risk transfer and financial sector stability

In this paper, we study credit risk transfer (CRT) in an economy with endogenous financing (by both banks and non-bank institutions). Our analysis suggests that the incentive of banks to transfer credit risk is aligned with the regulatory objective of improving stability, and so the recent development of credit derivative instruments is to be welcomed. Moreover, we find the transfer of credit risk from banks to non-banks to be more beneficial than CRT within the banking sector. Intuitively, this is because it allows for the shedding of aggregate risk which must otherwise remain within the relatively more fragile banking sector. Therefore, regulators should act to maximize the benefits from CRT by encouraging the development of instruments favorable to the cross-sectoral transfer of aggregate credit risk (including basket credit derivatives such as collateralized debt obligations). Finally, we derive the optimal regulatory stance for banks relative to non-bank financial institutions. We show that a level playing field approach is sub-optimal. Regulatory stances should be set to actively encourage cross-sector CRT, first because of the higher fragility of the banking sector and second to induce banks to incur the costs of CRT which otherwise lead them to undertake an insufficient amount of CRT.     

Recent Developments in Credit Markets

We summarize recent developments in the credit derivative markets. We show the role of dependence between individual debtors in portfolio derivatives in a study of implied correlation. The risk of changing dependence structures between stock and bond markets becomes evident in an example of capital structure arbitrage. How credit derivatives can introduce new risks is illustrated by the example of “overlay” in basket derivatives.     

经济学层面上的道德、信任、信用与征信

道德、信任、信用与征信这四个概念被相继引入经济学研究中经历了一个渐进的过程,四者之间存在相辅相成、共同促进、相互影响的作用与反作用的关系.道德规范是形成全社会共同遵守的价值观的基础,信任是除物质资本和人力资本之外决定一个国家经济增长和社会进步的主要社会资本,信用是商业交易的前提,是维系社会经济正常关系的纽带,而征信是对受信人信用状况的一个全面了解和高度概括,据此建立的奖惩机制能为良好的社会信用状态形成打下基础.     

浅议佳木斯市农村信用社资本管理

本文分析了辖区农村信用社资本结构以及资本管理现状,同时对资本管理现状产生的原因进行了分析,在此基础上,提出完善资本管理的对策.     

场外衍生品的标准化衡量及中国场外衍生品标准化的实践

此次国际金融危机暴露出OTC衍生品市场存在信用风险高、风险易蔓延、透明度低以及缺少监管等问题。鉴于此,G20会议在2009年9月提出“标准化金融衍生品合约应该在有组织平台上进行交易”,而实现上述目标的先决条件是衍生品适度的标准化。文章阐述了国际组织对衡量OTC衍生品标准化程度达成的共识,总结了近年来中国在OTC衍生品标准化推进方面取得的进展,并就中国OTC衍生品标准化的发展方向提出政策建议。