Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Making

The main objectives of this paper are: (i) To give a pithy, opinionated summary of what has been learned about bounded rationality in individual decision making from experiments in economics and psychology (drawing on my 1995 Handbook of Experimental Economics chapter); and (ii) mention some promising new directions for research which would be included if that chapter were written today.     

Individual Decision Making and Investor Welfare

This article analyses and quantifies the costs of suboptimal decision making for an investor with a multi-period horizon. In light of the empirical evidence that investors are too conservative and hold portfolios that are insufficiently diversified, we evaluate the costs of suboptimal equity participation both analytically and using simulation, and also estimate the costs of suboptimal diversification using simulation. We find that suboptimal leverage imposes only modest costs on the investor for reasonable parameter values. While the costs of inadequate diversification can be very high, we find that, because of the higher returns on small firms, an equally weighted portfolio of as few as five randomly chosen firms can provide the same level of expected utility as the value weighted market portfolio.
(J.E.L.: G11, G18, G23).     

Decision Making Costs and Problem Solving Performance

We report the results from an experimental study of how problem solving behavior is affected by financial rewards. We formulate three alternative hypotheses: costly rationality, extrinsic/intrinsic trade-off, and distraction effects. Subjects play a computerized version of the Tower-of-Hanoi game and report their beliefs about the optimal solution through a quadratic scoring rule. Subjects participate in one of two treatments: a high penalty and a low penalty. We find that eliciting beliefs, in addition to observing playing behavior, reveals useful information about subjects' cognitive behavior. We reject our hypothesis that the increase in the extrinsic penalty affects the intrinsic valuation in such a way as to decrease the amount of effort applied.     

Real Option and Strategic Decision Making of Duopoly

Other than traditional valuation methods, the real option approach captures the flexibility inherent in investment decisions to make the optimal decision of a finn in isolation from its competitors. In reality, however, the actions or decisions of competing fn-ms （practical or potential） often affect each other＇s investment opportunity. The value of the project for the firms is assumed to follow a Geometric Brownian motion, and the model combines game theory and the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty. This paper characterizes the resulting Nash equilibrium under different assumptions on the information that the firms have each other＇s valuation for the project.     

新时期的投资策略

无论何时何地，投资都是推动经济增长和经济发展的重要力量，从战略角度而言，投资的基本功能不变，而从战术角度而言，投资应当与时俱进，有所变化，本从投资和消费、近期效应和中长期目标、基础设施和高新技术、投资规模和投资效益，政府行为和市场机制五个方面全方位，多视角地论述了新时期的投资策略。     

Individual Decision Making in a Negative Externality Experiment

The experimental treatments analysed in this paper are simple in that there is a unique Nash equilibrium resulting in each player having a dominant strategy. However, the data show quite clearly that subjects do not always choose this strategy. In fact, when this dominant strategy is not a focal outcome it does not even describe the average decision adequately. It is shown that average individual decisions are best described by a decision error model based on a censored distribution as opposed to the truncated regression model which is typically used in similar studies. Moreover it is shown that in the treatments where the dominant strategy is not focal dynamics are important with average subject decisions initially corresponding to the focal outcome and then adjusting towards the Nash prediction. Overall, 66.7% of subjects are consistent with Payoff Maximization, 27.8% are consistent with an alternate preference maximization and 5.6% are random.     

行为金融指导下的风险投资决策

行为金融理论是自20世纪80年代兴起的金融学说：目前这一学说正是西方金融研究和实践的前沿领域，同时也是热门领域。在简述了行为金融和风险投资的有关内容之后，分析了二者的切合点，最后介绍了行为金融理论从心理和决策角度对风险投资决策的建议。     

破产法的适用范围:商人破产主义还是一般破产主义

破产法的适用范围是我国破产法重新修订过程中遇到的重大理论和现实问题。我国目前物权法制度不完善，社会信用普遍缺乏，实行一般破产主义的破产法制度时机不成熟。商自然人发展迅速，在经济生活中占有重要地位，且会陷入债务困境，为保护市场经济中各种经济成分的公平竞争，保护不同商主体债权人、债务为之利益，破产法的适用范围在目前应取商人破产主义为宜。     

Financial Decision Making and Cognition in a Family Context

In this paper, we studied the association of cognitive traits and in particular numeracy of both spouses on financial outcomes of the family. We found significant effects, particularly for numeracy for financial and non-financial respondents alike, but much larger effects for the financial decision maker in the family. We also examined who makes these financial decisions in the family and why. Once again, cognitive traits such as numeracy were an important component of that decision with larger effects of numeracy for husbands compared to wives.     

战略决策过程研究:一个综合分析框架

以战略决策过程为研究对象,整合关于战略过程研究和高管特征与决策过程关系的研究成果,构建了企业战略决策过程的一个综合分析框架。该分析框架可以为将来的进一步实证研究提供基础,对于企业寻找提高战略决策效果的具体途径也具有一定的启发意义。     

A Cournot–Nash Model of Family Decision Making

This paper models a two-person family. Each family member is utility maximising, yet family members are interdependent because of caring and public goods within the family. The two family members' interdependent utility maximisation problems are first solved using a non-cooperative, or Cournot–Nash, game theoretic framework. The Cournot–Nash equilibrium is then used as a threat point in a bargaining game. The paper provides a rigorous derivation of the properties of household demands, a full analysis of the determinants of intra-household resource allocation, including the effect of varying household bargaining power, and consideration of policy implications.     

贷款管理决策中的算法分析

商业银行的经营管理,首先是决策管理。正确的决策必须建立在大量搜集、整理、加工和 运用各方面有关信息的基础之上。贷款作为商业银行的主营业务,是银行取得利润的主要途径, 因此,合理分析贷款投向。及时防范贷款风险是银行信贷决策的重要内容。本文从贷款管理及其 决策过程入手,介绍了贷款决策分析方法,并以现金流量为例详细讨论了在贷款决策分析过程中 采用的预测算法。同时对使用效果作了评价。     

会展参加者购买决策过程研究

如今,会展产业在旅游产业中所占的比重已经越来越大.但是,总的来说,有关会展产业方面的研究还比较少, 现有的研究也是仅从会展策划的角度进行的研究.所以,本文着眼于这些问题, 考察不断变化的会展参加者们的购买决策过程, 通过对影响会展参加者决策因素的理论考察和主办地因素的分析, 掌握两者之间的关系, 从而给出主办地的会展管理方案.     

投资项目资本结构优化的多目标决策方法

通过对资本结构优化决策影响因素的分析，建立了项目资本结构优化决策的指标体系，并运用基于熵理论的多目标决策方法，为项目资本结构优化决策提供一种新的思路。     

Establishment of an Assets Appraisal Approach in Investment Decision Making

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the mistakes that are typically made in the choosing of current appraisal assessment methods for investment decisions. Aider research and comparison of three assessment methods, the relationships among the objectives of valuation, valuation standards and appraisal means are established. Furthermore, the effects of the appraisal measures chosen are empirically analyzed.     

不确定条件下的决策——从行为经济学视角解析

行为经济学的研究特点是重视对人的非理性行为的研究,文章从六个方面分析不确定条件下的判断决策:小数定律、代表性直观推断法、可获得性偏差、信念忠诚和确认偏差、锚定与调整性启发式、期望效用理论。行为经济学的诞生和发展,正说明了经济学在摆脱了传统的理性经济人假设之后会有极为广阔的发展空间,并且是向着更加真实世界的方向发展。     

试用装捆绑促销对消费者决策的影响

捆绑试用装的促销形式是近年来颇为流行的促销方式之一,但这种促销方式尚未得到研究者应有的关注.基于捆绑促销理论,将试用装纳入捆绑促销研究范畴,通过三个实验探讨了试用装捆绑促销对消费者购买决策的影响及其心理机制.研究结果表明,捆绑试用装降低了消费者的购买意愿;该效应受到捆绑产品溢出效应的中介作用,消费者对试用装的低吸引力评价溢出到对主产品的评价,从而导致消费者购买意愿下降.消费者整体性思维模式对这一效应具有调节作用,对于整体性思维倾向较高的消费者,捆绑试用装促销对购买决策的消极影响更大.研究结果扩充了捆绑促销研究,为营销管理者设计捆绑促销方案提供了理论指导.