宏观经济波动的实体性成因——真实经济周期(RBC)理论评析

真实经济周期理论属于西方经济学中的经济自由流派。它突破了货币周期理论,把来自供给方面的技术冲击等意外真实冲击看作是经济波动的根源;认为经济波动不是对长期经济增长趋势的偏离,否定把宏观经济分为长期和短期的观点;坚持货币中性主张;反对政府的干预政策。它以正统的微观经济理论来说明宏观经济波动,改变了人们对经济周期性波动原因的理解,超越了货币主义和新古典宏观经济学,是20世纪80年代以来自由主义经济学的重大发展。     

新一新古典综合的历史由来(下)

从滞胀到"新一新古典综合"就像大萧条引发了宏观经济学的凯恩斯革命一样,20世纪70年代菲利普斯曲线的消失,经济增长停滞与高通货膨胀并存的"滞胀"的出现,引发了宏观经济学的又一次革命—理性预期革命,这场革命开始的标志是1976年"卢卡斯批判"的问世。     

理性预期下经济政策的有效性分析

理性预期革命在当代经济学界产生了深远的影响,以理性预期为基础的新古典宏观经济学和新凯恩斯主义已成为当代宏观经济学的主流。本文从理性预期的视角探讨公众的理性预期在经济活动中的作用及对经济政策的影响,并结合国际金融危机背景下我国经济政策调控的实践,分析理性预期条件下宏观经济政策的有效性,从而使我们更好地引导微观经济主体的行为,实现宏观经济调控的目标。     

浅谈如何利用中国的经济周期进行投资选择

经济周期是宏观经济学中的重要理论,同时也被广泛地用于证券投资中。本文通过介绍经济周期,并且以中国宏观经济作为研究对象,最后本文探讨了如何利用经济周期进行正确的投资选择。     

浅谈如何利用中国的经济周期进行投资选择

经济周期是宏观经济学中的重要理论,同时也被广泛地用于证券投资中。本文通过介绍经济周期,并且以中国宏观经济作为研究对象,最后本文探讨了如何利用经济周期进行正确的投资选择。     

宏观经济学中的经济理论研究

宏观经济学与微观经济学研究差异主要体现在研究的对象、方法和理论方面的差异。其中微观经济学主要从个体经济活动为出发点进行个量分析,宏观经济学主要进行总量分析。经济周期主要分为繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏四个阶段,依靠经济社会中增长率的变化对经济周期的不同阶段进行划分。经济增长理论的研究主要集中在经济增长模型以及影响经济增长的因素进行分析。经济社会中通货膨胀和紧缩主要反映在货币供给去需求不相适应,从而造成物价水平的变化。     

经济人性论的心理学与伦理学模式——从“亚当·斯密问题”到“阿马蒂亚·森问题”

经济学以人性论为基础。其中:实证经济学的前提是人性论的心理学模式,而规范经济学的前提则是人性论的伦理学模式。以此为脉络,可区分出四种人性观和相应的经济学范式,即:"经济人"观念和以新古典经济学为代表的古典实证经济学,"道德人"观念和以德国历史学派为代表的古典规范经济学,"真实人"观念和以行为经济学为代表的现代实证经济学,"自由人"观念和以自由发展观为代表的现代规范经济学。     

技术再转换与自生能力的困境——兼对中国经济发展战略的反思

一、引言 19世纪70年代,杰文斯、门格尔、瓦尔拉斯三位伟大的经济学家开创了"边际主义"的分析方法,自此,新古典经济学取代古典经济学而大行其道.但是,边际主义的分析方法由于其严格的假设而存在着难以克服的缺陷.20世纪五六十年代,以琼·罗宾逊和斯拉法为代表的新剑桥学派重扛古典主义的大旗对以萨缪尔森为代表的主流经济学进行了彻底的批判,这场著名的"剑桥资本争论"以"萨缪尔森无条件投降而结束",然而,新剑桥学派的胜利果实在此后的30多年里却未能得到主流派经济学家应有的重视,这不能不说是一个遗憾.     

稳投资的基本逻辑

宏观经济学派别林立,能够白成一派并延续至今,自有其严密的分析逻辑及其伦理道德、政治哲学上的支撑。这也许是不问派别经济学家们论战至今,但几乎各派都有学者登上诺贝尔领奖台的原因。从政策主张上可粗略地将宏观经济学划分为两派,一派是主张政府少干预或不干预经济运行的新占典学派,另一派是综合了新古典和凯恩斯理论的综合学派。     

从古典到现代:经济学从未离开过供给侧——对经济学史的一个简要评述

文章简要回顾了古典经济学、新古典经济学、现代经济增长理论、供给学派、现代宏观经济学中关于供给和需求的理论,重在说明经济学的研究视角和重心从未离开过供给侧、生产端,对生产、供给、财富、增长等的研究一直是经济学的中心和主线,只是在为应对20世纪30年代的"大萧条",经济学中才第一次出现了系统的以需求管理为核心的宏观经济理论——凯恩斯主义.文章指出经济学理论和自工业革命以来的全球经济发展史都表明,经济增长的源泉和动力在供给侧、生产端,经济增长依赖于资本、劳动等生产要素的投入和优化,技术进步和人力资本积累才是经济持续增长的关键.为保证经济能够在均衡路径上发展,供给和需求二者都不可偏废.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.