Empirics of the median voter hypothesis in Japan

This paper empirically analyses for the first time the median voter hypothesis in Japan as a means of investigating whether or not Japanese prefectural finance reflects the preference of the median voter. The hypothesis is tested by estimating the demand functions of local public goods in each prefecture. As official data on the income of the median voter is unavailable in Japan, respective prefectural data is constructed using official data on income distribution and taxation. Reasonable intuitive interpretation of results indicates that the median voter hypothesis is supported in prefectural finances, and that voter preference affects the outcome of gubernatorial elections, i.e., a governor's reelection probability, by estimating a probit model. When considering the centralized prefectural government system in Japan, these results indicate that central government management of prefectural expenditures via inter-regional grants ultimately reflects jurisdictional median voter preference. First version received: December 1997/Final version received: February 1999     

Employment shifts, economic reform and the changes in public/private sector wages in Mexico: 1987–1997

Over the last decade, the public sector in Mexico experienced substantial fiscal reform, divestiture of public enterprises, and the elimination of many regulations affecting pay and employment. This study analyzes the changes in the public/private sector differences in wages during the 1987–1997 period. The results from analyzing microdata from the Encuesta Nacional de Empleo Urbano show that relative public sector wages increased from 1987 to 1997. Most of the relative wage increase in the public sector can be explained by increases in the price of skills and by changes in sorting across sectors. The results have important public policy implications since they suggest that public sector workers earn more and their wages have grown faster than those of their private sector counterparts. As such, policies contemplating public sector reform should take into account the effect of these measures on the inter-sectoral income distribution and the overall economic growth. First version received: April 2000/Final version received: December 2000     

Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in stochastic simulations: An application to policy simulations using a disequilibrium model of the West German economy 1960–1994

Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations. The application of a macroeconometric disequilibrium model of the West German economy to a fiscal policy simulation is taken as an example. Due to nonlinearities arising from regime specific reactions inside the model, confidence intervals for the simulation results have to be obtained by means of stochastic simulations. The robustness of the results is assessed using different methodologies. In particular, different methods for the generation of uniform error terms and their conversion to normal variates are applied. These methods include standard approaches as well as quasi-Monte Carlo methods. First version received: May 1998/final version accepted: August 1999     

On the long run effect of public capital on aggregate output: Estimation and sensitivity analysis

We undertake a sensitivity analysis of the productivity of public capital under the aggregate production function approach. Several proxies are used for the private inputs and for public capital, several dummy variables are included to adjust for energy price shocks, newly revised data is studied, and Stock and Watson's dynamic OLS estimator is used. Our main results are that the productivity of public capital depends critically on the proxies used, the effects are typically smaller than the early estimates, and omitting the oil price shocks introduces significant upward bias in the measured productivity of public capital. First version received: January 1998/final version received: June 1999     

Dynamic effects of public investment: Vector autoregressive evidence from six industrialized countries

We analyze the dynamic relationship between public investment and output. Whereas existing empirical studies on the effects of public capital typically rely on single-equation models of the private sector, we investigate the role of public investment in an economy by examining impulse responses derived from vector autoregressions. Using data from six industrial countries, we specifically examine the following questions: does higher public investment lead to GDP increases; is there reverse causation from output to public investment; and what are the effects of expenditure-neutral budget shifts from public consumption to public investment. First version received: April 1999/Final version accepted: August 2000     

PUBLIC FINANCE AND INDIVIDUAL PREFERENCES OVER GLOBALIZATION STRATEGIES

Do preferences toward globalization strategies vary across public‐finance regimes? In this paper, we use data on individual preferences toward immigration and trade policy to examine how pre‐tax and post‐tax cleavages differ across globalization strategies and state fiscal jurisdictions. High exposure to immigrant fiscal pressures reduces support for freer immigration among U.S. natives, especially the more skilled. The magnitude of this post‐tax fiscal cleavage is comparable to the pre‐tax labor‐market effects of skill itself. There is no public‐finance variation in opinion over trade policy, consistent with U.S. trade policy having negligible fiscal‐policy impacts. Public finance thus appears to shape opinions toward globalization strategies.     

稳健财政政策是当前合适的选择

2005年我国财政政策由积极转为稳健,三年的实践表明,稳健财政政策实际上表现出了偏松的特征。中央决定2008年继续实行稳健的财政政策,这是符合我国当前现实的合适的选择,不过,稳健财政政策的取向应该由稳中偏松转向稳中偏紧。     

存款准备金政策对企业集团财务公司的限制作用

财务公司作为企业集团内部独立金融机构,其内部信用创造与商业银行社会信用创造存在明显差别。对财务．公司实施存款准备金政策,不能对我国货币调控政策起到显著作用,并与企业集团财务公司的基本功能存在着一定的错位,利少而弊多,因此,宜取消对企业集团财务公司实施的存款准备金政策。     

Welfare Analysis of a Fiscal Reconstruction Policy in an Overlapping Generations Economy with Public Investment

Constructing an endogenously growing overlapping generations model with public investment, we examine the welfare effects of a fiscal reconstruction policy. In this paper we define a fiscal reconstruction policy as a policy where the government reduces its spending level without changing the tax revenue and allocates the surplus of the revenue to redeem public debt. We show that if government spending is not productive it is possible that a fiscal reconstruction policy improves the utilities of both the current and future generations, while if government spending is productive it can harm the utilities of both generations. Received February 26, 2002; revised version received July 8, 2002 Published online: February 17, 2003     

Core Concepts of Institutionalist Public Finance: Problem Solving,Institutional Analysis,Strategic Choice,and Stakeholder Engagement

Citizens and policymakers in many nations are becoming increasingly concerned about large budget deficits and mounting long-term fiscal policy challenges. At the same time, slow economic growth in the United States and Europe is causing some people to demand more government spending (and lower taxes) and others to question the efficacy of fiscal policy. Against that backdrop, institutional economists are exhibiting renewed interest in the field of public finance. This article responds by outlining four core concepts of institutionalist public finance: problem solving, institutional analysis, strategic choice, and stakeholder engagement. What distinguishes the perspective of institutionalism from that of neoclassical economics, today’s dominant economic paradigm, is described in the course of the discussion. The core concepts of institutionalist public finance offer a coherent approach to the study of fiscal policy questions. Those concepts were first fashioned decades ago, but remain relevant: institutionalism continues to provide a solid basis for constructive analyses of fiscal challenges.     

Changes in Development Finance in Asia: Trends,Challenges, and Policy Implications

There have been shifts in the composition and nature of development finance in Asia, such as the mainstreaming of private sources of finance and the emergence of domestic resources potentially available for development purposes. In parallel, new trends and challenges are identified in such areas as the transformation of development aid, public–private partnerships, and green finance. A common challenge is how to strengthen financial intermediaries for longer term sustainable financing from domestic and external sources for investment serving development purposes. To address this, policymakers should bear in mind policy coherence and consistency from macro, sector, and micro perspectives. For various financial resources to bring about tangible benefits, policymakers should take account of complementarities and synergies among the full range of available financial resources. The effective utilization of private sources of finance depends on commercial viability. The key to success is incentive design and risk mitigation measures.     

Distance in time between transition economies and the European Union

The time distance methodology used offers a new perspective to the problem, an additional statistical measure, and a presentation tool for policy analysis and debate readily understood by policy makers, media and general public. Disparity between the analysed transition economies and EU countries is considerably smaller for other indicators than for GDP per capita. Compared with Ireland, Portugal and Greece Slovenia was in 1995 in 13 cases behind (but time lag of Slovenia never exceeded 10 years) and in 13 cases ahead of them. Sicherl (1997a) discusses application of S-distance to time series regressions, models, forecasting and monitoring. First version received: October 1995/final version received: April 1998     

Buchanan and public finance: The tennessee years

James Buchanan’s views on public finance have already been analyzed and they are quite well known, as are their origins and roots. However, nothing has ever been said about why Buchanan chose public finance in the first place. The first goal of this paper is to show that Buchanan had made this choice before arriving at Chicago. We show how Carlton C. Sims and Charles P. White influenced him. We also show, by analyzing Buchanan’s M.A. thesis, that he was not only interested in public finance but was also primarily concerned by ethical questions and defended a bureaucratic centralized solution to solve the problem he was discussing – how to share the benefits collected from a gasoline tax among Counties. This helps to understand that Buchanan did not choose to study public finance to learn how to fight government intervention. Quite the contrary: it was to legitimate it. Second, we also demonstrate that a lot of the ideas that will matter for Buchanan in his career – the importance of ethics and the principle of an equal treatment for equals, the need to link taxes to benefits, the importance to adapt the scale of provision of a public good to the type of public good – were already present in this first work.

     

Schools and Location: Tiebout,Alonso, and Governmental Finance Policy

Many discussions of school finance policy fail to consider how households respond to policies that change the attractiveness of different residential locations. We develop a general equilibrium model that incorporates workplace choice, residential choice, and political choice of tax and expenditure levels. Importantly, we consider multiple workplaces, a fundamental feature of today's metropolitan landscape. This basic model permits investigating how accessibility and public goods interact in a metropolitan area. The model is used to analyze two conventional policy initiatives: school district consolidation and district power equalization. The surprising conclusion is that school quality and welfare can fall for all families when these restrictions on choice are introduced.     

Who is ruling Europe? Empirical evidence on the German Dominance Hypothesis

The aim of this paper is to analyze the hypothesis of German dominance in the European Monetary System (EMS). For this purpose, we use monthly interest rates for nine European countries from January 1979 to the second half of 1997. In particular, we test the stability of the implied long-run relationships to assess whether there has been a significant change in the EMS performance. The econometric methodology is based on Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure and several tests for parameter instability. The most important finding is that, although Germany has a significant influence on the monetary policy of the other European countries, it is not possible to accept the existence of dominance. First version received: May 1999/Final version received: November 2000     

土地革命时期中国共产党的财政思想研究*

在中国共产党诞生百年之际，在中国社会经济转型升级的今天，在财政已经上升为国家治理基础和重要支柱的背景下，研究和总结中国共产党在土地革命战争时期的财政思想具有重要的现实指导意义。思想根源于现实也反映现实，土地革命时期特定的社会政治经济背景孕育了中国共产党早期的财政思想，具体包括财政收入、财政支出和财政管理三大方面。这三个方面的思想密切关联，初步形成了中国共产党新民主主义革命早期传统财政学的雏形，构成了新中国社会主义财政学的重要基础，对于我国当今财政工作和现代财政制度建设具有重要的现实指导意义。     

Analyzing perceived hunger across states in the US

This paper focuses on the problem of analyzing how factors impact hunger across states when hunger is ill-defined. Hunger (which is a latent variable) is presumed to depend on macroeconomic, legislation, policy, and demographic variables. Based on the Bayesian method of a posterior odds ratios, we find that the high school graduation rate appears to be the single most important factor we identify which affects the perceived hunger measure. First version received: December 1996/final version received: September 1998     

International Trade and the Environment: Theoretical and Policy Linkages

I review and extend three approaches to trade and environmental policies: competitive general equilibrium, oligopoly and monopolistic competition. The first two have surprisingly similar implications: deviations from first-best rules are justified only by constraints on policy choice (which motivates what I call a “single dividend” approach to environmental policy), and taxes and emissions standards differ in ways which reflect the Le Chatelier principle. I also show how environmental taxes may lead to a catastrophic relocation of industry in the presence of agglomeration effects, although not necessarily if there is a continuum of industries which differ in pollution intensity. *An earlier version was presented as an invited plenary lecture to the European Association for Environmental and Resource Economics Conference, Oslo, 1999.     

Economic Theory and the Problem of Translation

Institutionalism was the dominant approach to public finance prior to WWII, after which it was eclipsed by Pigouvianism and Keynesianism. This transition defined the career of Wisconsin’s Harold M. Groves (1897–1969). Groves was a notable public finance economist, leading textbook author, and drafter of significant tax and labor legislation. He represented the culmination of a multigenerational institutionalist tradition. In this paper, I examine Groves and postwar public finance as a test case for the legacy of Wisconsin institutionalism. To that end, I consider Groves’s contributions to postwar tax policy, his interactions with Henry C. Simons and Richard M. Musgrave, and his view on Keynesian public finance. I identify some Wisconsin institutionalist contributions to modern public finance and offer an explanation for the postwar decline in institutional public finance.