Pervasive inattentiveness

In this paper we analyze how inattentiveness in capital investment decisions shapes business cycle dynamics in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with inattentiveness. We find that the model with pervasive inattentiveness matches several business cycle moments much better than an otherwise identical model without informational frictions in investment. These findings reinforce the need for pervasive stickiness to mimic the inertia found in macroeconomic data.     

Central Bank Independence and the Cost of Disinflation: Why the Wage Contracts Length Matters?

Recent empirical contributions demonstrate that countries with less independent central banks enjoy lower output losses during disinflationary cycles. To explain these somewhat surprising empirical findings, some authors suggest that independent central banks probably face a flatter short-run Phillips curve. In this paper, we provide both theoretical and empirical arguments to rationalize this intuition. We demonstrate that, since central bank independence reduces the mean inflation rate and its variance, wage setters opt for a lower degree of nominal wage indexation leading to more wage and price inertia and, thus, to a flatter short-run Phillips curve. Consequently, this paper put forward a channel of positive influence of central bank independence on the sacrifice ratio through its impact on nominal wage indexation. Empirical tests, performed using a sample of 19 OECD countries during the 1960–1990 period, show that these theoretical results hold also empirically.     

Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in the Spanish economy

As the Spanish economy gets more integrated in international markets, the real exchange rate becomes a key determinant of the monetary transmission. In this paper we trace out the dynamic response of prices, output and the exchange rate following a monetary policy shock. We estimate a structural VAR model whose identification scheme is based on the long run properties common to a large class of models. The results suggest that a small model with efficient asset markets plus nominal inertia and long run monetary neutrality, captures the essential features of the monetary transmission mechanism in Spain. The interest rate shock is well identified and the exchange rate overshoots its long run value. There are no signs of liquidity puzzle nor of price puzzle or exchange rate puzzle either.     

Identifying monetary policy shocks with changes in open market operations

In this paper, we reexamine the effects of monetary policy shocks by exploiting the information contained in open market operations. A sticky price model is developed where money is the counterpart of securities deposited at the central bank. The model's solution reveals that a rise in central bank holdings of open market securities can be interpreted as a monetary expansion. Estimates of vector autoregressions for US data are further provided showing that reactions to an unanticipated rise in open market securities are consistent with common priors about a monetary expansion, i.e., a decline in the federal funds rate, a rise in output, and inertia in price responses. Compared to federal funds rate shocks, prices do not exhibit a puzzling behavior and a larger fraction of the GDP forecast error variance can be attributed to open market shocks. However, the explanatory power of the latter has decreased since federal funds rate targets have been announced.     

Estimated general equilibrium models for the evaluation of monetary policy in the US and Europe

In this paper we derive a general equilibrium model based on optimising behaviour, which also implies a data consistent framework for monetary policy analysis. Specifically, our model accounts for nominal inertia in both price and wage setting as well for habits in consumption. Using US and European data from 1970 to 1998 our parameter estimates reveal that (i) price contracts last for 8 months and 13 months in the US and Euro-area, respectively; (ii) wage contracts have a length of 7 months and 1.75 years in the US and Europe, respectively; (iii) the extent of backward-looking behaviour in price setting is statistically significant in both economies with 41% of price contracts in the US and 28% in the Euro-area set according to a simple rule-of-thumb; (iv) backward-looking wage setting is only present in Europe with 17% of contracts set in a backward-looking manner; and (v) similar habits effects are present in both European and US consumption. Finally, we simulate the effects of monetary policy by considering the impact of a 1 point increase in nominal interest rates for one quarter. Our parameter estimates imply that there is a relatively muted inflationary response to interest rate increases in Europe (price inflation falls by -0.08% in Europe and 0.11% in the US) and there is a correspondingly large output response (-0.2% in the US and -0.6% in Europe).     

Macroeconomic dynamics in Macedonia and Slovakia: Structural estimation and comparison

This paper estimates a structural macroeconomic model using data for Macedonia and Slovakia to characterize possible challenges Macedonia can face concerning macroeconomic stabilization during its transition process. A comparison of the estimated model parameters suggests that, in Slovakia, the output gap is less sensitive to real interest rate movements and prices experience greater inertia. The estimated monetary policy reaction functions show Macedonia and Slovakia as inflation targeters, with Macedonia as the more conservative one, despite its officially applied exchange rate targeting regime. The differences in the estimated parameters imply differing transmission mechanisms for Macedonia and Slovakia. Consequently, the variance of domestic variables in Slovakia is most influenced by monetary policy shocks, while there is no single dominating shock explaining the volatility of Macedonia's macroeconomic variables. The exchange rate shock, the monetary policy shock and the demand shock are jointly important in determining the volatility of Macedonia's variables. The model simulations indicate that Macedonia experiences lower output gap and inflation volatility than Slovakia. This comes, nevertheless, at the cost of higher interest rate and real exchange rate volatility in Macedonia, which could be an indication of more volatile financial markets with possible negative implications for financial stability.     

Progressive taxation and human capital as determinants of inflation persistence

In this study, we introduce progressive taxation and human capital differences across productive sectors into a typical monetary policy game. The objective of this work is to reveal the potential short-run effects of these two typical features of economic growth on inflation dynamics. In our framework, such features act as frictions of labor mobility across sectors. We show that an increased progressivity of taxation lowers the diffusion of shocks, and in turn increases inflation persistence. Moreover, the dispersion of human capital across sectors acts as a barrier to labor mobility and thereby increasing inflation inertia through the same channel. We also empirically verify these findings by employing panel data analysis in a sample of 28 OECD countries.     

如何避免组织惰性？知性视角的解释框架

在经济转型期，组织惰性存在于大量企业之中并阻碍组织变革和产品创新。为探究组织惰性降低策略，试图从组织知识和组织性格整合视角，提出解释框架。为此，以知识资本和组织性格为前因，以知识能力为中介，构建诠释组织惰性降低路径的结构方程模型，并通过源自286份调查问卷的样本数据进行实证分析。结果表明，知识资本和组织性格对组织惰性具有显著负向影响。其中，知识资本和组织思维通过知识能力的中介作用对组织惰性施加影响，而组织本能和组织情感则直接作用于组织惰性。知识资本和组织思维通过知识能力中介对资源惰性的负效应远大于其对程序惰性的负效应；相反，组织本能和组织情感对程序惰性的负效应远大于其对资源惰性的负效应。最后，提出知性管理框架下企业避免组织惰性的启示和建议。     

组织心理惯性对企业破坏性创新的影响

组织心理惯性被认为对企业破坏性创新具有抑制作用，但其作用机理尚未得到充分阐释。基于组织心理和权变视角，利用316份中国制造企业问卷调查数据，实证研究组织心理惯性对企业破坏性创新的作用机制。结果发现，组织心理惯性负向影响企业自我替代能力和破坏性创新;自我替代能力正向影响企业破坏性创新，并在组织心理惯性和企业破坏性创新之间的关系中发挥部分中介作用;环境动荡性负向调节组织心理惯性与破坏性创新之间的关系。     

组织惯性对企业技术创新投入的影响

随着数字科技的蓬勃发展，创新成为保证企业发展活力的第一动力。以2010-2018年沪深A股上市公司为研究样本，借鉴资源基础理论、动态能力理论和制度基础理论，探究组织惯性对企业技术创新投入的影响。结果表明：组织惯性在一定程度上能够有效促进企业技术创新投入；组织惯性对企业技术创新投入的积极作用部分通过中介变量动态能力实现，当组织惯性程度高、动态能力强时，企业技术创新投入也会相应增加；制度环境在组织惯性与企业技术创新投入正向关系中起强化作用，企业面临的制度环境越好，组织惯性对企业技术创新投入的促进效应也就越强。     

参与惯性和投资选择

参与惯性是否影响了个体的投资选择?参与惯性是如何产生的?采用2006年中国9城市投资者调查数据,本文发现:在银行存款、外汇、股票、债券、期货、基金、借出、做生意、保险金、收藏品、房地产、理财产品、彩票等广义投资项目中,个体当前和未来期望的选择都表现出了参与惯性,即倾向于维持他们过去的选择;这种参与惯性是其禀赋效应或延迟决策等行为偏见的结果,而不是理性选择所致。本文的政策涵义在于:加强投资者教育,使其意识到并主动克服投资决策中的参与惯性,这是有效增进投资者福利的政府政策所需要考虑的。     

组织惯性:理论评述与研究框架构建

自20世纪80年代以来,组织惯性已经成为战略管理研究的重要内容。目前学术界对该概念的理解仍然存在较大差异,不利于后续研究和组织惯性理论的进一步发展。首先,基于国内外组织惯性文献的内容分析,将文献按照组织生态学派、理性适应学派和混合学派进行归类,提炼出不同理论流派的主要观点;随后,从组织惯性概念界定、量化、作用效果等方面对不同流派文献进行系统性整理和归纳;最后,在现有研究基础上构建组织惯性概念框架,旨在为后续研究提供便利。     

TAYLOR RULE REACTION COEFFICIENTS AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE PERSISTENCE

Recent literature has established a link between the persistence of real exchange rates and the degree of inertia in Taylor rule monetary policy reactions functions. This paper provides a different view on this link by investigating how the size of Taylor rule reaction coefficients impacts the adjustment dynamics of the real exchange rate. Within a stylized sticky‐price open‐economy macro model, it is demonstrated that a stronger interest rate reaction to inflation in the Taylor rule raises the convergence speed of the real exchange rate. Conversely, raising the coefficient on the output gap or attending to the exchange rate in an open‐economy version of the Taylor rule slows down real exchange rate adjustment. In all cases, more rapid convergence comes at the cost of stronger initial real exchange rate misalignments in the wake of monetary policy shocks.     

组织结构演化的效率与适应悖论

基于演化理论的观点认为,在企业成长的过程中,组织内部会形成大量的惯例与流程,表现出组织结构惰性。本文认为,这种惰性的实质即企业过于重视内部效率而忽视了对外部环境的适应,结果导致企业战略演化形成路径锁定,而阻碍了战略的及时更新,这时企业陷入了"战略演化陷阱"。本文对组织演化中效率与适应的悖论进行了解释,探讨了组织结构惰性的成因,并提出了一个实证的理论框架。     

Reallocation and learning over the business cycle

This paper shows how cyclical aggregate shocks can stimulate structural reallocation activities, which in turn amplify the effect of the shock. It analyses the informational aspects of restructuring activities and their interplay with aggregate shocks. A model is developed in which production units are uncertain about the value of staying in the market and learn about it over time in a Bayesian fashion. In addition to their own private assessment, they can also learn from observing other units’ decisions. Given that adjusting is costly, each unit has an incentive to delay action and wait for other players to act in order to make a better informed decision. If delay is more costly in a downturn, a negative aggregate shock can break the inertia and induce the most pessimistic agents to exit. The information released by such actions will induce more action, thus generating a burst in restructuring activities that reinforces the initial effect of the aggregate shock. This process of information accumulation and revelation offers both a powerful amplification mechanism of relatively modest aggregate shocks and a potential explanation of why restructuring tends to be concentrated in recessions.     

中国通胀惯性特征与货币政策启示

通胀惯性与货币政策效果紧密相关。本文应用具有统计无偏性的"Grid Bootstrap"估计法和未知断点结构突变检验法,研究了1980—2007年中国通货膨胀的惯性特征。本文发现,在低通胀环境下通货膨胀仍然呈现相当高的惯性特征,这暗示着我国货币政策的滞后效应依然非常明显,通货膨胀对政策变化的反应速度缓慢。计量结果说明,中央银行至少应该在出现通胀压力前一年采取措施,来应对高通胀惯性环境下的政策滞后效应。因此,新时期货币当局不仅需要保持对通胀抬头趋势的适度警觉,而且应该关注高通胀惯性对政策效果的影响。     

Aggregate debt efficiency and debt inertia: lessons from the Korean economy

This paper investigates the link between aggregate debt efficiency and debt inertia in an highly leveraged business sector like Korea's. The model designs the concepts of liquidity multiplier and debt inertia to argue that they are two major indicators of aggregate debt efficiency. The empirical assessment to the Korean business sector indicates that the aggregate debt efficiency depends mainly on externalities of the debt inertia rather than liquidity creation due to the liquidity multiplier. The economic crisis of Korea in 1997 proves that such a debt efficiency structure must be vulnerable to attack.     

An Evaluation of Inertia Models of Unemployment

Two approaches have been used to model unemployment. The first, conventional, approach involves linking the unemployment outcome to observed indices of productivity, structural factors and discrimination such as educational attainment, location and birthplace. The second approach, the inertia model, involves using a person's labour market history as a way of including in unemployment models information on the 'unobservables' that influence employability. This paper evaluates the performance of both models of unemployment. The results provide unambiguous support for the inertia model when modelling unemployment. The inertia model has higher explanatory power, higher within-sample prediction rate success and fewer out-of-sample forecasting errors than the conventional model. The estimates from the inertia model can be used to provide quite accurate predictions of the risk of becoming unemployed. This is important if individuals at high risk of becoming unemployed are to be targeted for labour market assistance.     

Two Crises: Inflationary Inertia and Credibility

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the Mexican currency crisis of 1994 and the Chilean crisis of 1982 to assess to what extent exchange-rate-based stabilisation programmes are successful in reducing – or even eliminating – inflationary inertia. The paper provides a brief overview of the Chilean and Mexican reform and stabilisation programmes. A theoretical model that emphasises the role of credibility is developed to analyse the effects of exchange-rate based stabilisation programmes on inflationary inertia. According to the model, less than credible stabilisations will not eliminate inertia and will generate major real exchange rate overvaluation. Detailed data are used to test the hypothesis     

技术投入惯性与企业绩效

选取深沪A股上市制造企业为样本,以技术投入持久性为视角研究其对企业绩效的影响,并探讨外部环境、企业规模和财务杠杆的调节效应。结果表明：技术投入惯性正向影响企业绩效;外部环境动荡时,惯性的积极作用表现〖JP〗更加显著;企业规模抑制了技术投入惯性与企业绩效的正向关系;财务杠杆对技术投入惯性与企业绩效的调节效应还因企业性质不同而有所差异。研究提示,制造企业应运用高水平投入,采取持续不变的技术投入策略应对动态环境。大规模企业要关注技术创新,增加技术创新投入,防止盲目执行技术投入策略。针对“预算软约束”问题,国有企业应注重合理利用负债融资,发挥负债的治理效用。