Measurement error in the AFQT in the NLSY79

Many promising efforts in the social sciences aim to measure future outcomes (such as wages or health outcomes) given some base level of human capital or ability. They typically fail to recognize the proxies for human capital are all measured with error, creating bias in regression analysis. Here I show how item level data offers the opportunity to improve a broad range of economic, social and psychometric studies, an opportunity now enhanced significantly by the new release of item response level data for the Armed Forces Qualifying Test in the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

Aggregation of the generalized fractional processes

The paper studies the interaction between aggregation and persistence pertaining to skip sampling of stock variables as well as temporal aggregation of flow variables for the generalized fractional processes. We show that, for skip sampling, the long memory feature at the zero frequency can arise from the aggregation of a generalized fractional series, while temporal aggregation does not induce such phenomenon. Simulation results are included to demonstrate the practical relevance of the theoretical results.     

Imposing local curvature in the QUAIDS

In this paper, we build on Ryan and Wales (1998), Moschini (1999), and Serletis and Shahmoradi (2007) and impose curvature conditions locally on the quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model of Banks et al. (1997), an extension of the simple AIDS model of Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) that can generate quadratic Engel curves [that is, rank-three demand systems, in the terminology of Lewbel (1991)]. In doing so, we exploit the Slutsky matrix of second order derivatives of the indirect utility function.     

The FMLS-based CUSUM statistic for testing the null of smooth time-varying cointegration in the presence of a structural break

In this paper we extend the FMLS-based CUSUM cointegration test (Xiao and Phillips, 2002) for testing the smooth time-varying cointegration null hypothesis. For this purpose we use Chebyshev time polynomials to specify time-varying coefficients under the null. We derive the limiting distribution of the statistic, which is pivotal with the order of the Chebyshev time polynomials, and we provide the critical values to conduct the proposed test.     

Estimating VARs with long stationary heterogeneous panels: A comparison of the fixed effect and the mean group estimators

The most promising candidates for estimating vector autoregressive models with long, stationary, possibly heterogeneous panel data sets (panel-VARs) are the fixed effect (FE) and the mean group (MG) estimators. With a view to providing guidance to applied researchers on how to pool in a panel-VAR, this paper compares the performance of the FE and the MG estimators both asymptotically and in Monte Carlo simulations. The main results of the analysis suggest the use of both estimators in applied work. If FE and MG estimates give similar estimates, the FE estimator should be used because it is more efficient. If they differ, the MG estimator should be used only if the panel is sufficiently long — say, twice as long as usually recommended in the dynamic panel data literature. If FE and MG estimates differ and the panel is not long enough, neither is generally a desirable alternative and other estimation techniques are needed.     

Assessing the impact of the 2004 Olympic Games on the Greek economy: A small macroeconometric model

This paper examines the impact of the Athens 2004 Olympic Games on the Greek economy. Using a small aggregate macroeconometric model we find evidence to support the view that the Olympics is an event that could successfully boost the economy of the host city by generating benefits that outweigh the preparation cost. Consistent with recent literature in this area, whilst the impact effects are quite strong during the preparation phase and the year the Games took place, the long-term economic legacy effects appear to be quite modest.     

Breaking the norm: An empirical investigation into the unraveling of good behavior

We present results from an artefactual field experiment conducted in rural Peru that considers whether observing non-reciprocal behavior influences an individual's decision to reciprocate. Specifically, we consider the behavior of second movers in a trust game, assessing whether their decision to reciprocate is influenced by the observed reciprocity of others. In documenting the impact of an external shock to observed reciprocity, this paper shows that small increases in non-reciprocal behavior result in an unraveling of the norm of reciprocity. Survey data is used to explore mechanisms by which this occurred. Results are not consistent with learning effects, suggesting that preferences may be changed by observing others deviating from a norm of reciprocity. These results suggest that investing in encouraging trustworthy behavior can have large benefits in situations where individuals are observing each other's behavior, such as may be the case in a new market institution.     

Field experiments in economics: The past, the present, and the future

This study presents an overview of modern field experiments and their usage in economics. Our discussion focuses on three distinct periods of field experimentation that have influenced the economics literature. The first might well be thought of as the dawn of “field” experimentation: the work of Neyman and Fisher, who laid the experimental foundation in the 1920s and 1930s by conceptualizing randomization as an instrument to achieve identification via experimentation with agricultural plots. The second, the large-scale social experiments conducted by government agencies in the mid-twentieth century, moved the exploration from plots of land to groups of individuals. More recently, the nature and range of field experiments has expanded, with a diverse set of controlled experiments being completed outside of the typical laboratory environment. With this growth, the number and types of questions that can be explored using field experiments has grown tremendously. After discussing these three distinct phases, we speculate on the future of field experimental methods, a future that we envision including a strong collaborative effort with outside parties, most importantly private entities.     

Bounding the inefficiency of equilibria in nonatomic congestion games

Equilibria in noncooperative games are typically inefficient, as illustrated by the Prisoner's Dilemma. In this paper, we quantify this inefficiency by comparing the payoffs of equilibria to the payoffs of a “best possible” outcome. We study a nonatomic version of the congestion games defined by Rosenthal [Int. J. Game Theory 2 (1973) 65], and identify games in which equilibria are approximately optimal in the sense that no other outcome achieves a significantly larger total payoff to the players—games in which optimization by individuals approximately optimizes the social good, in spite of the lack of coordination between players. Our results extend previous work on traffic routing games.     

Viewpoint: An extended class of instrumental variables for the estimation of causal effects

Abstract We examine how structural systems can yield observed variables instrumental in identifying and estimating causal effects. We provide an exhaustive characterization of potentially identifying conditional exogeneity relationships and demonstrate how structural relations determine exogeneity and exclusion restrictions that yield moment conditions supporting identification. This provides a comprehensive framework for constructing instruments and covariates. We introduce notions of conditioning and conditional extended instrumental variables (XIVs). These permit identification but need not be traditional instruments, as they may be endogenous. We distinguish between observed XIVs and proxies for unobserved XIVs. A main message is the importance of sufficiently specifying causal relations governing the unobservables.     

Unit and Fractional Roots at the Long Run and the Seasonal Frequencies in Macroeconomic Time Series

In this article, we show that macroeconomic time series may contain unit and fractional roots at both, at zero and at zero and at the seasonal frequencies. The importance of the root at the long run or zero frequency requires in many cases to consider this root at both, separately in an independent polynomial, and also included in the seasonal one. Several Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to examine cases when the root at the zero frequency is not appropriately considered. An empirical application based on the tests of Robinson, Peter M. “Efficient Tests of Nonstationary Hypotheses,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89, 1994, pp. 1420–37 is also carried out at the end of the article.The author gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Government of Navarra (“Ayudas de Formación e Investigación y Desarrollo”).     

A simple and effective misspecification test for the double-hurdle model

The commonly-used version of the double-hurdle model rests on a rather restrictive set of statistical assumptions, which are very seldom tested by practitioners, mainly because of the lack of a standard procedure for doing so, although violation of such assumptions can lead to serious modelling flaws. We propose here a bootstrap-corrected conditional moment portmanteau test which is simple to implement and has good size and power properties.     

Semiparametric EGARCH model with the case study of China stock market

In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric method for GARCH model by combining the EGARCH (1,1) model and local polynomial regression. Based on the idea of two-stage estimate, a link function is estimated by the local polynomial and then the parameters are obtained via the weighted least square method. Finally we apply this method to the Shanghai Composite Index in the China stock market and compared the results with these of EGARCH.     

On the Nash bargaining solution with noise

Suppose two parties have to share a surplus of random size. Each of the two can either commit to a demand prior to the realization of the surplus - as in the Nash demand game - or remain silent and wait until the surplus was observed. Adding the strategy to wait results in two strict equilibria, in each of which one player takes almost the whole surplus, provided uncertainty is small. If commitments concern only who makes the first offer, the more balanced Nash bargaining solution is approximately restored. In all cases, commitment occurs in equilibrium - despite the risk of breakdown of negotiations.     

The maximum number of parameters for the Hausman test when the estimators are from different sets of equations

Hausman (1978) developed a widely-used model specification test that has passed the test of time. In this paper, we show that the asymptotic variance of the difference of the two estimators can be a singular matrix. Three illustrative examples are used, namely an exogeneity test for the linear regression model, a test for the Box–Cox transformation, and a test for sample selection bias.     

On the origin of high persistence in GARCH-models

We show that the (Baillie and Chung, 2001) minimum distance estimates of the GARCH (1,1) model induce spurious persistence in the volatility when there are structural changes in the mean of the process.     

On the use of robust regression in econometrics

A particular robust regression estimator has gained popularity among applied econometricians. We show that this estimator is inconsistent for the parameters of the conditional mean when the errors are skewed and heteroskedastic, and conclude that therefore its use cannot be generally recommended.     

Alternative unit root testing strategies using the Fourier approximation

Two alternatives to  and  Fourier unit root testing strategy, which incorporates pretesting for nonlinearity, are considered. One is based on the union of rejection (UR) approach, and the other is a hybrid strategy that combines the UR approach with the use of extra information from nonlinearity pretesting. Simulation results show that the two proposed strategies, especially the hybrid, frequently outperform the original pretesting strategy.     

Marginal likelihood calculation for the Gelfand-Dey and Chib methods

A trade-off exists between the Gelfand and Dey (1994) and Chib (1995) methods to calculate the marginal likelihood in Bayesian estimation. Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, we demonstrate that the performance of the two methods is fairly close.