Sources of exchange rate fluctuations with Taylor rule fundamentals

This paper investigates the sources of exchange rate fluctuations when monetary policy follows a Taylor rule interest rate reaction function. We first present a simple dynamic exchange rate model with Taylor rule fundamentals which is triangular in the long-run impacts of shocks to the output market, the interest rate differential, and the Taylor rule. We then proceed to assess the relative importance of various shocks in exchange rate determination by estimating a structural VAR with long-run identification restrictions based on the triangular structure of the model. We find demand shocks to be less important than in earlier VAR studies, with both supply shocks and nominal shocks explaining a substantial part of real exchange rate fluctuations.     

Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate

We propose a two-country no-arbitrage term-structure model to analyze the joint dynamics of bond yields, macroeconomic variables and the exchange rate. The model allows to understand how exogenous shocks to the exchange rate affect the yield curves, how bond yields co-move in different countries and how the exchange rate is influenced by interest rates, macro-economic variables and time-varying bond risk premia.Estimating the model with US and German data, we find that time-varying bond risk premia account for a significant portion of the variability of the exchange rate: apparently, a currency tends to appreciate when investors expect large capital gains on long-term bonds denominated in that currency. A number of other novel empirical findings emerge.     

Inflation targeting and real exchange rates: A bias correction approach

This paper examines whether inflation targeting (IT) influences purchasing power parity (PPP) by a bias correction approach under cross-sectional dependence. The recursive mean adjustment (RMA) method proposed by So and Shin (1999) and Shin and So (2001) is employed to correct a downward bias in half-life estimates of real exchange rates. More importantly, the empirical results show that IT lowers variability of real exchange rates and plays an important role in providing favorable evidence for long-run PPP.     

Real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials: A present value interpretation

Although the real exchange rate-real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models, empirical support for the relationship is generally found to be rather weak. In this paper we re-investigate the RERI relationship using bilateral US real exchange rate data spanning the period 1978-2007. Instead of testing one particular model, we build on Campbell and Shiller [1987. Cointegration tests of present-value models. Journal of Political Economy 95, 1062-1088] to propose a metric of the economic significance of the relationship. Our empirical results provide robust evidence that the RERI link is economically significant and that the real interest rate differential is a reasonable approximation of the expected rate of depreciation over longer horizons.     

External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate

We examine the link between the net foreign asset position, the trade balance and the real exchange rate. In particular, we decompose the impact of a country's net foreign asset position (‘external wealth’) on its long-run real exchange rate into two mechanisms: the relation between external wealth and the trade balance; and, holding fixed other determinants, a negative relation between the trade balance and the real exchange rate. We also provide additional evidence that the relative price of nontradables is an important channel linking the trade balance and the real exchange rate.     

The money-age distribution: Empirical facts and the limits of three monetary models

The money-age distribution is hump-shaped for the US post-war economy. There is no clear-cut relation between the variation of money holdings within generations and age. Furthermore, money is found to be only weakly correlated with both income and wealth. We analyze three motives for money demand in an overlapping generations setup in order to explain these observations: (1) money-in-the-utility, (2) an economy with costly credit service, and (3) limited-participation. All three models are consistent with the hump-shaped relation between average money holdings and age, yet they predict a much closer association between money holdings, income, wealth, and age than we find in the data. Only the limited-participation model partly replicates the low bivariate correlation between money and income as well as between money and interest-bearing assets. None of the three models satisfactorily explains these stylized facts.     

Capital controls and welfare

This paper computes welfare levels under different degree of capital controls and compares them with the welfare level under perfect capital mobility by using the methodology of Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2007). We show that perfect capital mobility is not always optimal and that capital controls may enhance an economy’s welfare level. There exists an optimal degree of capital-account restriction that achieves a higher level of welfare than that under perfect capital mobility, if the economy has costly financial intermediaries. The results of our analysis imply that as the domestic financial intermediaries are less efficient, the government should impose stricter capital controls in the form of a tax on foreign borrowing.     

Credit rationing, interest rates and capital accumulation

A simple endogenous growth model is developed to characterize credit rationing through the capital accumulation process. The model shows that credit rationing on investment loans decreases as capital accumulates and the enforcement cost decreases. We find that the evolution of the interest rate factor (lending interest rate/depositing interest rate) has a similar pattern to the credit rationing probability. However, simulations show that the evolution of the interest rate spread through the capital accumulation process depends on the degree of the enforcement cost. In the empirical part of the paper, we consider fifty-two countries, at different stages of development, over the period 1995–2005. We confirm the theoretical findings relative to the evolution of the interest rate spread and interest rate factor with capital accumulation. These results suggest that, for economies endowed with costly contract enforcement, the interest rate factor could be a better proxy of credit rationing than the interest rate spread.     

Internal and external exchange rate equilibrium in a cointegration framework. An application to the Spanish peseta

A simple cointegration methodology is used to compute the equilibrium real exchange rate for the peseta. The stock of foreign assets and the evolution of sectoral prices are considered to be the fundamentals for the real exchange rate. After testing for cointegration, we proceed to decompose the series into a permanent and a transitory component, following the method devised by Gonzalo and Granger. The permanent component of the real exchange rate corresponds to its (time-varying) equilibrium value, and the deviation of the actual real exchange rate from this equilibrium value gives an estimation of the degree of misalignment of the real exchange rate. By the end of the sample (1998:1), the peseta is estimated to be undervalued around 6%.     

Cyclical wage movements in emerging markets compared to developed economies: The role of interest rates

This paper documents that, at the aggregate level, (i) real wages are positively correlated with output and, on average, lag output by about one quarter in emerging markets, while there are no systematic patterns in developed economies, and (ii) real wage volatility (relative to output volatility) is about twice as high in emerging markets compared with developed economies. We then present a small open economy model with productivity shocks and countercyclical interest rates. The model incorporates a working capital requirement and the Jaimovich and Rebelo (2009) preference that allows for flexible parameterization of the strength of income effects on labor supply. The model can account for the high volatility of wage and consumption relative to output and countercyclical trade balances that characterize emerging-market economies. During economic downturns, rising interest rates in emerging markets induce relatively large income effects on labor supply, so households would not reduce their labor input as much even though wages drop significantly.     

Inflation and real sectoral output shares: Dynamic panel model evidence from seven OECD countries

Models of the cost of inflation often conclude that inflation misallocates resources. For example, inflation may lead to an increase in the variability of relative prices and it is often claimed that this increase in variability leads to a misallocation of resources. This claim raises the following empirical question, does inflation alter the composition of real output; that is, does it change real output shares? We examine this question using dynamic panel data methods for nine sector panels each with seven OECD countries from 1970 to 2005. We find evidence that inflation changes the real shares of some sectors even when inflation is treated as endogenous.     

Political regimes and income inequality

We construct a theoretically-motivated model of income inequality. Through a pooled regression on an international panel, we demonstrate that political regime (whether extractive, redistributive, or reinvestment-oriented) correlates with within-country income inequality.     

Deforestation and the real exchange rate

Deforestation is a phenomenon that has largely been concentrated in the developing world. We construct a theoretical model of deforestation that focuses on the factors affecting the incentives to transform forested land into agricultural land. We show that: (i) lower discount rates and stronger institutions decrease deforestation; (ii) a depreciation in the real exchange rate increases deforestation in developing countries whereas the opposite obtains in developed countries; (iii) paradoxically, better institutions may exacerbate the deleterious impact of a depreciation in developing countries. These hypotheses are tested on an annual sample of 101 countries over the 1961–1988 period, and are not rejected by the data. Our results suggest that short-term macroeconomic policy, institutional factors, and the interaction between the two, are potentially important determinants of environmental outcomes.     

Remittances flow and financial development in Bangladesh

Workers' remittance is a major source of foreign exchange earnings and plays an important role in the economy of Bangladesh. It accounts for 12% of GDP in 2010. This paper examines with annual data for 1971–2008, whether the flow of remittances is contributing positively to the development of the financial system of the country. Our results suggest that remittances have a significant positive effect on financial development. However, financial sector's development is neutral in its effect on the inflow of remittances.     

Mobile termination rates and the receiver-pays regime

The European Commission has recently invited national regulatory authorities to decrease access charges to the cost of an efficient operator. Some large operators warned regulators and users that cutting access charges could result in the US style business model, where mobile users pay for both making and receiving calls. I show that mobile operators charge for incoming calls when the access charge is below cost even if receivers can hang up. In such a case profits are neutral with respect to the level of the access charge. I further show that ‘bill and keep’ is a constrained social optimum when the call externality is strong, even if receivers pay and can hang up. Finally, I discuss the policy implications of these results.     

MNEs and wages: The role of productivity spillovers and imperfect labor markets

Disentangling the labor market implications of increased foreign capital flows remains important. This paper provides a unifying framework allowing to study the wage implications of multinational enterprise (MNE) activities, pointing to the importance of controlling for both labor market imperfections and productivity spillovers from foreign to local firms. Results show that increased MNE activities increase average wages in the local economy while contributing to a larger wage dispersion between the MNE and local firms. While the results pertaining to average wages depends heavily on the frictions in the labor market, how much the wage dispersion alters also depends on the extent of productivity spillovers from the MNEs to the local firms and the complementarity between domestic and foreign capital.     

Home bias and the persistence of real exchange rates

This paper investigates the half-life of real exchange rates after taking into account the impact of home bias. Empirical results indicate that the half-life of real exchange rates is in the range of 1.5 to 2 years for four out of five countries after controlling the impact of home bias. These results support Obstfeld and Rogoff's (2000, NBER Macroeconomics Annual) view that home bias is crucial in explaining the PPP puzzle.     

Growth, welfare and optimal trade taxes: a fallacy of composition

Optimal export taxation rules out the possibility of immiserizing growth in a two-country world. Thus, productivity increases in the exporting sector must be welfare improving. This paper shows that in a multicountry world such reasoning commits a fallacy of composition. Simultaneous growth of exporting nations can lead to welfare losses in the presence of unilaterally optimal export taxes. Also, optimal export taxes can decline in response to such growth. This result further strengthens the possibility of perverse welfare movements. Thus, standard policy recommendations of increasing productivity in the exporting sector may lead to unintended and self-defeating outcomes.     

Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective

This paper examines the importance of credit market shocks in driving global business cycles over the period 1988:1–2009:4. We first estimate common components in various macroeconomic and financial variables of the G-7 countries. We then evaluate the role played by credit market shocks using a series of VAR models. Our findings suggest that these shocks have been influential in driving global activity during the latest global recession. Credit shocks originating in the United States also have a significant impact on the evolution of world growth during global recessions.