Sovereign debt and the length of economic depressions

We analyze the duration of economic depressions to see if there is an association with consecutive years of high public-debt-to-GDP ratios. We find that there is a positive, non-linear association between the sovereign debt ratio and the length of depressions. Inflation is negatively and linearly correlated with depression duration. These associations are robust to the inclusion of controls for development, but we do detect cross-country heterogeneity in the probability of exit. An analysis of causality finds little evidence that high levels of sovereign debt cause depressions to be longer. Rather, it appears that longer depressions elicit higher debt relative to GDP. Public deleveraging during a depression is not likely, therefore, to help bring it to an end.     

Stability, global dynamics and Markov equilibrium in models of endogenous economic growth

This paper studies the local and global dynamics of two-sector models of endogenous growth with economy-wide external effects and taxes on capital and labor. The local analysis classifies the parameter space depending on the number of stationary solutions and local stability of equilibria. The global analysis shows that if taxes are within certain bounds and the size of the external effects on the average level of human capital is smaller than the share of physical capital, the equilibrium path is monotone and therefore a continuous Markov equilibrium can be constructed.     

Information technology and economic performance in U.S industries

Abstract .  We study the relationship between information technology (IT) and economic performance, to explore whether IT-capital promotes productivity growth. We use a data set similar to that of previous researchers, but employ non-parametric estimation techniques in order to directly estimate the output elasticities of IT for each industry and time period. We find that IT has a positive effect on productivity, which varies among industries and time. Moreover, adjustment costs are important when identifying this effect. Finally, IT-capital growth appears to be raising income in all industries used in our sample, even those that experienced output reduction.     

Fiscal policy and the structure of production in a two-sector developing economy

This paper develops a two-sector model of a developing economy and examines the role of the informal sector in limiting the government's ability to increase tax revenues. A key feature is the introduction of auditing of the informal sector and degree of tax enforcement in that sector. We emphasize the interdependence between tax policy and enforcement in achieving a developing economy's fiscal objectives and show that by judicious policy choices the presence of the informal sector need not hinder its ability to raise tax revenues. We supplement the formal analysis with numerical simulations highlighting the contrasting intertemporal tradeoffs implied by higher tax rates and tax-enforcement levels.     

Phases of economic development and the transitional dynamics of an innovation-education growth model

This paper extends earlier analysis of the transitional dynamics of a growth model in which both human capital and innovation drive income expansion. Funke and Strulik [2000. On endogenous growth with physical capital, human capital and product variety. European Economic Review 44, 491-515] suggest that the typical advanced economy follows three development phases, characterized in a temporal order by physical capital accumulation, human capital formation, and innovation, and that the transitional dynamics of the model reproduce such a sequencing. I argue that other sequences of the phases of development are possible and show that the model can generate a trajectory in which innovation precedes human capital formation. This trajectory accords with the observation that the rise in formal education followed with a considerable lag the process of industrialization. U.S. income and educational time series data are used to corroborate the innovation-education trajectory.     

Total factor productivity differences: Appropriate technology vs. efficiency

Recent development and growth accounting studies have established that total factor productivity is an important source of cross-country differences in income levels and growth rates. This paper makes two contributions. First, it examines the sensitivity of the development accounting results to the Cobb-Douglas specification of the production function. Second, within the Cobb-Douglas framework, it weighs evidence of the two alternative explanations of total factor productivity differences: the inefficiency view and the appropriate technology view. To accomplish these tasks, the world production frontier is estimated using a nonparametric deterministic approach known as data envelopment analysis. I find that the fraction of income differences explained by physical and human capital increases from 32% to 55% when departing from the Cobb-Douglas assumption. There is also evidence consistent with the appropriate technology view; countries with an inadequate mix of inputs are unable to access the most productive technologies. Moreover, the world technology frontier appears to be shifting out faster at input combinations close to that of the R&D leader. However, inefficiency appears to be the main explanation for low incomes throughout the world; it explains 43% of output variation in 1995, and its importance has increased over time.     

Experiencing change and the evolution of adaptive skills: Implications for economic growth

We distinguish learning in a static environment from that in a dynamic environment to show the existence of an important interaction between the development of new technologies and human capital accumulation. Because technological progress creates a more dynamic environment, it complements education in the production of human capital by enhancing adaptive skills. Higher levels of adaptability and human capital in turn determine the profitability of new inventions and the incentive to invest in new R&D. Differences in the history of technological progress produce different levels of adaptability and our results suggest why countries that have comparable levels of education and per capita incomes may differ significantly in their growth performance.     

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF TOURISM, EMPLOYMENT AND WELFARE: THE CASE OF HONG KONG

Abstract.  The present paper uses a dynamic open-economy model with wage indexation to examine the impact of tourism on employment and welfare. Both short-run and long-run situations are analysed. It is well known that tourism converts non-traded goods into tradable goods. An increase in the demand for a non-traded good raises its relative price, which results in an expansion of the non-traded sector at the expense of the traded goods sector. This output shift raises labour employment in the short run. However, in the long run, the higher relative price leads to higher wages, resulting in a negative impact on labour employment. If the output effect is dominant, the expansion in tourism raises employment and welfare. However, under realistic conditions tourism may lower both labour employment and welfare due to rising costs. These results are demonstrated by simulating a dynamic model for the case of Hong Kong.     

Growth, income distribution, and fiscal policy volatility

The relationship between income distribution and economic growth has long been an important economic research subject. Despite substantial evidence on the negative impact on long-term growth of inequality in the literature, however, there is not much consensus on the specific channels through which inequality affects growth. The empirical validity of two most prominent political economy channels - redistributive fiscal spending and taxes, and sociopolitical instability - has recently been challenged. We advance a new political economy channel for the negative link between inequality and growth, a fiscal policy volatility channel, and present strong supporting econometric evidence in a large sample of countries over the period of 1960-2000. Our finding also sheds light on another commonly observed negative relation between macroeconomic volatility and growth. We carefully address the robustness of the results in terms of data, estimation methods, outlier problem, and endogeneity problem that often plague the standard OLS (ordinary least squares) regression.     

Testing the product test

The product test asks the product of the volume and price index numbers to equal the corresponding value change. The literature treats the product test as a requirement. We treat it as a hypothesis, and we provide an empirical test.     

Political versus economic institutions in the growth process

After a decade of research on the relationship between institutions and growth, there is no consensus about the exact way in which these two variables interact. In this paper we re-examine the role that institutions play in the growth process using data for developed and developing economies over the period 1975–2005. Our results indicate that the data is best described by an econometric model with two growth regimes. Political institutions are the key determinant of which regime an economy belongs to, while economic institutions have a direct impact on growth rates within each regime. These findings support the hypothesis that political institutions are one of the deep causes of growth, setting the stage in which economic institutions and standard covariates operate.     

Inflation and economic growth in Latin America: Some panel time-series evidence

In this paper we investigate the role of macroeconomic performance, mainly in terms of rates of inflation, in determining economic growth in four Latin American countries which suffered hyperinflationary bursts in the 1980s and early 1990s, but that also differ in terms of development levels. The data set covers the period between 1970 and 2007, and the empirical results, based on panel time-series data and analysis, confirm the anecdotal evidence which suggests that inflation has had a detrimental effect to growth in the region. All in all, we highlight the fact that excessive inflation has clearly offset the Mundell–Tobin effect and consequently the high costs that inflation has had on economic activity in the region.     

One market, one number? A composite indicator assessment of EU internal market dynamics

We consider the lack of consensus about an appropriate theoretical framework linking sub-indicators as a defining characteristic of composite indicators. This intrinsic feature implies uncertainties about the appropriate normalization and aggregation of the raw data. The two are related: index theory offers some valuable guidelines about their connection. Yet these do not fully solve the basic problem of expert disagreement. We embed such (residual) disagreement in the aggregation method itself. Specifically, we apply an impartial benefit-of-the-doubt weighting procedure, where weight restrictions incorporate the available information on experts’ opinions. We apply this procedure to the dynamic performance assessment of EU Internal Market effects, thereby highlighting its capacity to disaggregate member states’ observed performance shifts into changes relative to benchmarks and performance changes of the benchmarks (i.e. catching up versus genuine progress). Our results indicate that the latter factor is more important in explaining the observed progress.     

The role of Provincial Government Spending Composition in growth and convergence in China

China’s development policy since 1978 has differed across regions. With rapid aggregate growth has come widening regional inequality. The fiscal decentralisation reforms in 1994 shifted political pressure onto provincial officials to boost local growth through local public investments. These investments affect regional convergence by counteracting regulatory frictions in factor accumulation, and can also determine steady-state growth. However, the effect of public spending allocations across physical and human capital on growth and convergence processes is empirically unexplored for Chinese provinces. We take provincial time-series data on public spending by category, finding local public spending and its components augment convergence rates differently across regions. Spending on education and health contributes significantly more to growth and convergence than capital spending, confirming that the public capital-spending bias is not a local growth-optimising strategy. We suggest a policy of aligning local government promotion incentives to human capital targets to correct local resource misallocation.     

Seasonal adjustment,demography, and GDP growth

Seasonal adjustment removes the predictable seasonal variation in GDP. If there is seasonal variation in factor inputs, then seasonal adjustment factors may be correlated with those inputs. This correlation can obscure statistically the importance of those inputs for GDP. This effect is apparent for the demographic composition of the labour force for Canada. Seasonal adjustment also changes the time‐series properties of GDP. Accounting for the seasonal pattern and trend change in demography suggests that the period of reduced volatility in GDP growth for Canada, the ‘Great Moderation,’ can be traced to the changing demographic structure of the labour force.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Foreign Aid: A Panel Approach

This paper uses a panel approach to examine the determinants of foreign aid. It examines the extent to which taxes on international trade and the scope of government activities, ethnicity, private credit, and education determine foreign aid. The paper specifies and estimates a model that explains the allocation of foreign aid among 151 countries over the period 1975 to 1998. The key empirical finding suggests that Taxes on Trade increases foreign aid dependency. Moreover, trade, private credit, foreign direct investment, GDP per worker, and government consumption are important determinants of foreign aid. The factors that appear to decrease foreign aid include: Years of schooling, private credit, trade, and GDP per worker. The factors that appear to increase foreign aid include: Taxes on international trade, ethnicity, and government consumption.     

Sources of TFP growth: occupational choice and financial deepening

This paper explains and measures the sources of total factor productivity (TFP) by developing a method of growth accounting based on an integrated use of transitional growth models and micro data. We decompose TFP growth into the occupational-shift effect, financial-deepening effect, capital-heterogeneity effect, and sectoral-Solow-residuals. Applying this method to Thailand, which experienced rapid growth with enormous structural changes between 1976 and 1996, we find that 73% of TFP growth is explained by occupational shifts and financial deepening, without presuming exogenous technical progress. Expansion of credit is a major part. We also show the role of endogenous interaction between factor price dynamics and the wealth distribution for TFP. We thank Richard Rogerson for his clarifying and helpful discussion. The comments from the participants of the Minnesota Workshop in Macroeconomic Theory 2004, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics (SITE) Summer Workshop 2004, European Meeting and North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society 2004, NEUDC 2004, Iowa Conference of Economic Development, and seminars at USC Marshall School, Penn State University, UCLA, and UCSD are also appreciated. Financial support from NSF (SES-0318340) and NICHD (R01 HD27638) is gratefully acknowledged.     

Political democratization, economic liberalization, and growth volatility

This study empirically investigates the effects of political and economic liberalization on growth volatility using a difference-in-difference method for a sample of 158 countries over the 1970-2005 period. The results show that, when examined separately, economic liberalization leads to a significant reduction in volatility while democratization is not followed by a decrease in growth volatility. For countries that undertake only one liberalization, opening up the economy to international trade reduces volatility in growth; becoming a democracy, on the other hand, seems to increase macroeconomic instability. For countries that implement both political and economic liberalizations, no statistically significant effect on volatility is detected. These results serve to provide additional support for the policy recommendation that developing countries should liberalize their economy first and then consider political liberalization.