The risk and cost of job loss in Canada, 1978–2008

We assess the risk and cost of worker displacement in Canada over the last three decades. We show that neither the risk of job loss nor the short‐term earnings losses of displaced workers trended upwards during that period. However, short‐term earnings losses of workers displaced from manufacturing increased in recent years, as a smaller proportion found a post‐displacement job in that sector. In line with Stevens ( 1997 ) and Couch and Placzek ( 2010 ), we find that high‐seniority workers and individuals with stable labour market attachment experienced, five years after displacement, earnings losses that ranged between 10% and 18%.     

Earnings losses of displaced workers in times of crisis

We utilize data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and the Bureau of Labor Statistics to study how the earnings losses experienced by displaced workers vary in times of economic crisis. Relative to an economy that operates at full potential, our results show that a 1% increase in the real gross domestic product gap observed at the time of displacement is associated with an additional increase in the estimated earnings losses experienced by displaced workers of approximately 4.3% in the year immediately following displacement, and with similar increases in the estimated losses for up to 5 years after.     

LONG‐RUN INEQUALITY AND SHORT‐RUN INSTABILITY OF MEN'S AND WOMEN'S EARNINGS IN CANADA

This paper examines the variability of workers’ earnings in Canada over the period 1982–2006. We decompose the total variance of workers’ earnings into a ‘permanent’ component between workers and a ‘transitory’ earnings instability component over time for given workers. We then investigate the statistical relationships between these components and indicators for the business cycle. The most marked change in earnings variances in Canada since 1982 is the general rise in total earnings variance, which is essentially driven by a quite dramatic rise in long‐run earnings inequality. The patterns across age categories of the two variance components are almost opposite. Long‐run earnings inequality generally rises with age, but earnings instability is seen to generally decline with age, so that earnings instability is markedly highest among entry age workers. Unemployment rate effects are positive on almost all variance measures, while higher unemployment is associated with widened long‐run earnings differentials and greater short‐run earnings instability.     

The pecuniary and non-pecuniary costs of job displacement—The risky job of being back to work

This paper investigates the effect of displacement on workplace injury risk and earnings using Italian administrative data on work histories merged with data on individual job-related accidents. Compared to a control group of non-displaced workers selected with propensity score matching techniques, re-employed displaced workers are exposed to moderate earnings losses and experience approximately a 79% increase in workplace injuries. This sizeable reduction in the quality of non-pecuniary working conditions is driven by the transition to new occupations and the risk imposed by new work environments.     

THE DECREASING INFLUENCE OF DOMESTIC MARKET STRUCTURE ON RACIAL EARNINGS DIFFERENTIALS: 1984 TO 1996

This study investigates the market concentration/racial earnings discrimination relationship in two periods: 1984–90 and 1991–96. In each period, the racial wage gap and the residual wage gap are compared for union and nonunion workers in monopolistic and competitive industries. The authors find no evidence of market structure–driven discrimination for union workers in either period. However, from the first to the second period they find evidence of increased racial earnings differentials for nonunion workers, yet market structure–driven discrimination decreases. The authors suggest that concentration has become a less effective measure of market power and firms' latitude to discriminate. (JEL J31, J71 )     

HOW TO VALUE THE POORER PROSPECTS OF YOUTH IN THE EARLY 1990s?

Young workers in the 1990s can expect greater economic insecurity, as well as lower average earnings, compared to older workers, or compared to the youth of previous decades. The cost of greater insecurity depends upon an individual's probability of unemployment, marginal utility of income gains/losses and the extent to which individuals can smooth consumption over time by borrowing and drawing down assets. Since unemployment insurance cutbacks and higher unemployment have increased the risk exposure of youth, changes in the expected value of their income may understate utility losses as measured by the change in certainty equivalent income.
This paper uses a behavioural microsimulation model to compare the impacts of 1971 and 1994 unemployment insurance legislation and unemployment rates in Canada. It calculates both the expected value of income changes and, using a Stone-Geary utility function, the change in inequality of well-being (as measured by certainty equivalent income) for youth and for prime age workers. Both calculations reveal that youth were disproportionately affected by Canada's changing labour market environment. Very few youth have enough assets to finance consumption during spells of unemployment.     

Earnings inequality and the business cycle

Economists have long viewed recessions as contributing to increasing inequality. However, this conclusion is largely based on data from a period in which inequality was increasing over time. This paper examines the connection between long-run trends and cyclical variation in earnings inequality. We develop a model in which cyclical and trend inequality are related, and find that in our model, recessions tend to amplify long-run trends, i.e. they involve more rapidly increasing inequality when long-run inequality is increasing, and more rapidly decreasing inequality when long-run inequality is decreasing. In support of this prediction, we present evidence that during the first half of the 20th century, when earnings inequality was generally declining, earnings disparities indeed appeared to fall more rapidly in downturns, at least among workers at the top of the earnings distribution.     

Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany

We present new empirical evidence on the distribution of earnings, income and wealth among entrepreneurs in Germany. We document that both earnings and income are more concentrated among entrepreneurs than among workers and describe a large-scale overlapping-generations model that replicates the age-earnings profiles of these two household types. As an application, we compute the equilibrium effects of a reform of the German pay-as-you-go pension system in which entrepreneurs must also contribute and receive a pension. We show that in the presence of mobility between workers and entrepreneurs, the expected lifetime utility of all newborn households unanimously declines due to the general equilibrium effects of lower aggregate savings, and welfare losses amount to approximately 0.7% of total consumption. In addition, the integration of self-employed workers into the social security system in Germany does not help to improve its fiscal sustainability, and only an increase in the retirement age to 70 years will help to finance pensions at the present level beyond the year 2050.     

When a Door Closes,a Window Opens? Long‐Term Labor Market Effects of Involuntary Separations

This study estimates the earning losses of workers experiencing an involuntary job separation. We employ, for the first time in the earning losses literature, a Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator with fixed effects that has several advantages with respect to conventional fixed effects models. The Poisson estimator allows considering the full set of involuntary separations, including those with zero labor market earnings because of unemployment. By including individuals with zero earnings and by using our new method, the loss in the year of separation becomes larger than in previous studies. The loss starts with roughly 30% and, although it quickly shrinks, it remains at around 15% in the following years. In addition, we find that compared to other reasons for separation, the earning loss pattern is unique for involuntary separations, because no other type of separation implies such permanent scarring. This latter finding makes us confident that the self‐reported involuntariness of a separation is a reliable source of information.     

New evidence on earnings and benefit claims following changes in the retirement earnings test in 2000

This paper examines the labor force activity and timing of benefit claims of workers aged 65–69 in response to the removal of the retirement earnings test in 2000. We use the 1% sample of longitudinal Social Security administrative data that covers the period from 4 years before to 4 years after the removal of the test. Using a reduced-form quantile regression method, we find that effects on earnings are limited to workers with earnings just around the test threshold and above, as predicted by economic theory. Our estimated effects suggest that labor supply elasticities with respect to the net-of-tax rate are approximately 0.05–0.07 for working primary beneficiaries aged 65–69 whose earnings are between the median and the 80th percentile. Further, results show that applications for Social Security benefits following the earnings test removal accelerated by 2 to 5 percentage points among individuals aged 65–69 and by 3 to 7 percentage points among those reaching age 65.     

Decomposing Lorenz and Concentration Curves*

We decompose the Lorenz curve (LC) and its associated concentration curve (CC) by population subgroups. To illustrate these decompositions, we examine changes in earnings inequality among West Germans, East Germans, and foreign guest workers during the recent German unification. We show that East German earnings have become less concentrated in the lower deciles of the overall German earnings distribution, whereas the earnings of West Germans and foreign guest workers have become more concentrated in the lower deciles.     

Earnings Mobility during the Transition: The Case of Hungary

This paper tests the hypothesis that the economic transition if associated with earnings mobility that is higher than in mature market economies, and which offsets the increase in earnings inequality. It uses the Hungarian Household Panel Survey for the period 1992-1997. The paper finds that indeed five-year earnings mobility in Hungary in the early years of the transition was significantly higher than in OECD countries. However, there are sings that the mobility rate has begun to decline. The pattern of earnings mobility had a significant equalizing effect: low earners were raised up while high earners were leveled down. However, mobility was taking place against a backdrop of the fall in real wages and therefore in most cases it implied the worsening of the absolute earnings status. Unfortunately, mobility does not help much low-paid workers. In contrast to most OECD countries, in Hungary low-paid workers have little chances to move up the earnings ladder. Low-paid jobs tend to be a permanent trap rather than a stepping stone to better paid employment.     

What caused earnings inequality to increase in Canada during the 1980s?

While broad consensus exists that earnings inequality increasedin Canada during the 1980s, as in other industrialised countries,there is little agreement about the causes. The main contributionof this paper is the simultaneous, empirical examination ofeight hypotheses of increased earnings inequality, using multivariateregression analysis, namely: the decline in unionisation, minimumwages and industrialisation, as well as the increase in unemployment,trade, relative supply of university-educated workers and relativesupply of female workers, and technological change. In Canada,during the 1980s, employment and unionisation factors stronglyand consistently explain the increase in annual earnings andhourly wage-rate inequality, after controlling for six otherpossible determinants. The results also point to the importanceof considering a multidimensional explanation of increased earningsinequality and avoiding generalisations across gender, incomeand work status groups.     

A structural model of human capital and manufacturing sector change

The relationship between manufacturing job losses per capita, changes in manufacturing earnings per worker, and human capital investment is examined empirically at the level of nearly 3,000 U.S. counties over the period 1980–90. Hypotheses tested address the questions of whether the sectoral composition of the local economy (in this case with an emphasis on manufacturing) affects per worker earnings growth and investment in human capital, and whether investment in human capital in turn affects the economy's sectoral composition and earnings growth. The simultaneous equations estimation reveals direct and indirect effects of initial levels of the endogenous variables on their change during the 1980s. These effects are compared with comprehensive effects obtained using a reduced form regression.Research underlying this paper was funded in part under the National Research Initiative, Competitive Grants Program of USDA/ERS (Grant no. 93-37401-9367). Neither this agency nor the University of Kentucky is responsible for views expressed here.     

Fields of Study and the Earnings Gap by Race in Brazil

Workers with tertiary education in Brazil earn three times more than those with a lower level of schooling. Thus, the attainment of a bachelor's or graduate degree by a black worker usually provides important benefits at the individual level. However, an educational improvement of this type does not assure equal labor market outcomes relative to white workers with the same level of education. The labor earnings differential by race in Brazil is high even among individuals who completed at least a bachelor's degree. This paper investigates this labor earnings gap, emphasizing the unequal distribution of whites and blacks across fields of study. Evidence indicates that disparities in the distribution of racial groups across fields of study help explain 18% of the total median earnings differential in 2000 and 33% in 2010, accounting for most of the gap between white and black workers due to characteristic effects in this latter period.     

The impact of job mobility on earnings growth of migrant workers in urban China

Using survey data on migrant workers in urban China, this paper carries out a positive study on the impact of inner-industrial and inter-industrial job shifts on earnings growth of migrant workers. Results show that low human capital, low employment grades and low income are the most important reasons for migrant workers to switch jobs. The migrant workers who are young, unmarried new entrants with low level of education, no training and low income tend to change their jobs within the industry. And those who have high income and who find their jobs by themselves are more likely to switch jobs inter-industrially. Inner-industrial job switches have a significant positive impact on earnings growth of low-income migrant workers and a significant negative one on that of high-income migrant workers. Moreover, inter-industrial shifts have a significant negative impact on earnings growth of migrant workers of all income levels. The inner cause for the positive effect of inner-industrial shifts lie in the fact that the cumulative effect of years of service within enterprises is not obvious while continuing engagement in the same type of job within an industry will lead to accumulation of qualifications, which has a significant augmentation effect on earnings of migrant workers.     

Progressive Taxation and Wage Setting: Some Evidence for Denmark

The proposition that a progressive tax system contributes to wage moderation is studied using Danish earnings data disaggregated by occupation, gender and earnings level. Our main conclusions are that income-tax progression affects wage setting, but whether it moderates or exaggerates wage pressure is income dependent. An increase in progressivity reduces the pre-tax earnings of middle-income workers (manual male workers and moderate income earners among both male and female non-manual workers). The reverse is found for high-income earners (non-manual male workers), in that an increase in progressivity tends to raise pre-tax earnings. Finally, there is no significant effect of tax progressivity on the wages of low-income earners.
JEL classification : H 3; J 3; J 5; J 6     

Why the earnings of the middle class declined: evidence from Japan

Using rich governmental micro data, we explore the reasons for the decline in earnings of the middle class in Japan. Many developed countries have seen the decrease in middle-class earnings, and Japan, long known for its solid middle class, is no exception. Our analyses revealed that the main reasons for the decline differ between males and females. The decrease in the earnings of middle-class male workers is due to the decrease in general human capital captured by returns to potential experience years. In contrast, the decrease in the earnings of middle-class female workers is mainly due to the increase in the supply of part-time workers. Furthermore, the firm-specific human capital captured by the return to tenure has increased only among high-wage male workers. This implies that Japanese firms invest in a selected few able workers, regardless of age, because they have been changing human resource strategy in response to economic globalization and changes in technology and the management environment.     

Changing income inequality: A distributional paradigm for Canada

This paper examines the major changes in income inequality in Canada since the 1970s and collects them as a distributional paradigm for Canada. It focuses on labour market changes in terms of shares of workers and earnings shares for lower earners, middle‐class workers and higher earners in a flexible general framework. Polarization of full‐time workers, loss of middle‐class earnings share and increase in a higher earnings gap are highlighted. Changing returns to human capital, role of demographics and cohort effects and declining labour share are examined. The paper also reviews evidence of changing economic mobility and estimating the role of inequality of opportunity.