两岸四地经济合作制度化与推进策略

ECFA和CEPA是两岸四地经济合作制度化的重要标志,对推动两岸四地经济发展与融合产生了重大的积极影响。然而,在世界经济前景日趋复杂的情势下,进一步推动两岸四地经济合作制度化既有机遇,也有挑战。未来应在CEPA及ECFA制度框架下,针对重大问题协调机制、交通运输一体化建设、产业分工以及人才流动机制等方面不断创新合作模式,丰富合作内涵,从而推动两岸四地经济一体化进程,创造合作多赢的崭新局面。     

Monetary Integration In Eastern And Southern Africa: Choosing A Currency Peg For Comesa

African countries involved in monetary integration projects have been advised to peg their currencies against an external anchor before the definite fixing of exchange rates. In this study, we estimate optimum currency area indices to determine, between four alternatives, which international currency would be the most suitable anchor for Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) members and for a set of other selected African economies. We conclude that the euro and the British pound prevail over the US dollar or the yen; that the euro would be the best pegging for most, but not all, COMESA members; and that some of these economies display evidence of more intense integration with third countries, with which they share membership in other (overlapping) regional economic communities, than within COMESA.     

One country,two currencies: The adoption of the Hong Kong currency board, 1983

Currency boards have had an enduring attraction as a solution to exchange rate and monetary credibility for small open economies, despite few successful examples. In this context, the case of Hong Kong stands out for its longevity; it survived the handover to China, the Asian financial crises in 1997, and the global crises in 2007–8 and 2020. The 1983 currency crisis and the decision to link the exchange rate to the US$ is usually treated as an outcome of local political uncertainty due to the Sino-British negotiations which set the framework for how Hong Kong would fit with the rest of China after 1997. We present fresh archival evidence from Hong Kong and London to reveal the year-long debates over Hong Kong's monetary system after a drop in the exchange rate in September 1982 and to demonstrate how most of the protagonists in Hong Kong and London came only reluctantly to accept the idea of re-pegging the dollar once public expectations had been raised. We also show how the mixture of currency and banking instability affected the terms of the negotiations in 1982 and 1983 and set the framework for the one country, two currencies system that prevails today.     

内地与香港经济合作前景与对策

近年来,内地与香港的经济合作呈现出前所未有的机遇和发展前景。为抓住机遇,促进两地经济合作深入推进,当前应采取建立合作新机制、引导产业转移、扶持企业转型及加强宣传推广等政策措施。     

香港与新加坡国际金融中心发展比较研究

香港和新加坡作为亚洲四小龙,都是亚洲区域重要的国际金融中心。二者在国际金融中心建设中的定位和发展战略,具有鲜明的特色和深刻的借鉴性。     

Monetary Union,Trade Integration,and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe

This paper studies the impact of monetary arrangements on trade integration and business cycle correlation in late 19th century Europe. We estimate a gravity model and show that tighter monetary integration was associated with substantially higher trade, as in recent studies using contemporary data. For instance, the Austro-Hungarian monetary union improved trade between member states by a factor of 3. To explain this, we build and estimate a simple model where greater monetary integration weakens the current account constraint by fostering business cycle co-movements.     

The Link between Institutional and Economic Integration: Insights for Latin America from the European Experience

The European experience illustrates that institutional integration interacts with economic integration at the regional level. In this paper we ask how economic and institutional integration are linked and whether there is a causal link between the two. We present an original indicator of institutional integration and study how it developed vis-à-vis diverse measures of economic integration. In particular, we ask what insights can be drawn from the European process of regional integration, which started in the 1950s, for regional integration in Latin America today. We find that Latin America is currently less economically integrated not only than the European Union today, but for certain economic variables even than the European Union in the 1960s. A VAR analysis illustrates that the link between institutional and economic integration has worked both ways throughout the European experience. There is also evidence that stronger institutional integration has indeed led to deeper economic integration.     

Optimal currency area theory and monetary integration in the Andean and Caribbean regions

In this article, the author analyses the prospects for monetary integration in the Andean and Caribbean regions and stresses the regional specificities that should be taken into account. He points to the necessity to combine economic, political economy and institutional approaches to assess scenarios for monetary integration. The author also argues that the application of optimum currency area theory to regions with specific characteristics (in many respects different from the EU) might produce positive feed‐back effects for the development of OCA theory itself, highlighting specific aspects and implications of the same theory and stimulating theoretical research.     

回归后香港经济发展的成就、问题与对策

香港回归以来经济增长经历了三次较大波动,但总体呈增长态势。CEPA实施为香港经济注入新的活力,但是,其经济发展中长期形成的深层次问题并没有解决,某些民生问题日益突出。     

Testing the Links between Institutional Integration and Trade Deepening: Clues from Europe

This paper investigates the interaction between institutional integration and trade deepening in the EU over the last 50 years. It uses Granger causality tests, a VECM and variance decompositions to further the understanding of this interaction. The evidence indicates two-way endogeneity. But the link from institution building to trade dominates. Yet, this link has weakened over time, possibly due to globalisation sidestepping institutions. Moreover, the sensitivity of institutional integration to trade deepening has risen, which suggests that economic forces have gained more strength in determining institutional steps.

香港地铁及上盖物业开发情况调研及其对深圳市地铁上盖物业开发建设的启示

为了解决深圳市地铁车辆段上盖物业建设中存在的噪声和振动问题,保障上盖物业居民的健康和安全,在考察香港地铁及上盖物业建设及采取的环保措施的基础上,指出其对深圳市地铁上盖物业建设的借鉴意义,并根据比对的结果,得出考察结论及对深圳市地铁上盖物业建设的建议。     

马克思主义城乡融合思想与我国省域城乡一体化发展

学术界关于马克思主义城乡融合思想的诸多相异观点,并没有僭越社会本体论分析框架。文章站在我国省域城乡一体化发展的立场上,对马克思主义城乡融合思想作出社会本体论阐释,并进一步揭示二者之间内在的逻辑关系。     

港澳与珠江三角洲建立共同市场制度整合的效应研究

本研究从一体化程度、投资便利化程度和贸易便利化程度等三个指标,衡量港澳与珠三角地区建立共同市场过程中制度整合的经济效应与进展,并对其进一步的整合方向提出若干研究建议。     

中国大陆市场奢侈品的品牌传播战略与策略

如今中国大陆的经济迅速崛起,成为世界市场十分具有潜力的重要部分,在各个产品的纷纷进军和抢滩中国大陆的同时,雄心勃勃的奢侈品品牌厂商正以利用前期进入中国大陆市场做为铺垫,将新兴的中国大陆中产阶层做为他们的重要目标对象。本文以品牌传播的果核模型为依托,探讨中国大陆市场奢侈品的品牌传播战略与策略。     

Prospects for a Monetary Union in the East Africa Community: Some Empirical Evidence

This paper examines generalised purchasing power parity (G-PPP) and business cycle synchronisation in the East Africa Community with the aim of assessing the prospects for a monetary union. The univariate fractional integration analysis shows that the individual series exhibit unit roots and are highly persistent. The fractional bivariate cointegration tests suggest that there exist bivariate fractional cointegrating relationships between the exchange rate of the Tanzanian shilling and those of the other EAC countries, and also between the exchange rates of the Rwandan franc, the Burundian franc and the Ugandan shilling. The Fractionally Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive (FCVAR) results imply the existence of a single cointegrating relationship between the exchange rates of the EAC countries. On the whole, there is evidence in favour of G-PPP. In addition, there appears to be a high degree of business cycle synchronisation between these economies. On both grounds, one can argue that a monetary union should be feasible.     

两岸货币清算机制内涵、困境及进程的探讨

完整的两岸货币清算机制是指解决两岸间美元、欧元、人民币、新台币等主要货币资金往来的制度性协议,这一协议由若干阶段性协议所构成,最终目的是实现人民币与新台币的直接兑换。大陆现有的四种跨境资金清算模式可以作为两岸货币清算机制的制度基础。受制于政治定位和资本账户管制,两岸货币清算机制迟迟未能签订。即便全面实现,在市场因素的驱动下,两岸依然会面临许多问题。     

融入与自主性的平衡:中国外交的核心问题

中国外交在若干转折性剧变中存在着一个有关身份定位的核心问题,即面临鸦片战争后的特殊时空情境中国应该如何处理与现代国际体系的关系。维护国家自主性是中国外交的根本战略目标,融入是国家维护其自主性的最好战略。因而,实现融入与自主性的平衡构成了中国外交的核心问题。作者在将国家置于全球相互依赖背景下考察时,试图将合作、责任内涵引入自主性概念之中,并指出,由于相同的历史条件与现实任务,这一核心问题也是广大的发展中国家面临的普遍问题,探索这一问题具有广泛的理论与现实意义。     

Test of the Response of the Overnight Rate to the Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Korea,Hong Kong,and Singapore

Abstract

For Korea, the overnight rate responds positively to the inflation rate, the output gap, the lagged real exchange rate, and the lagged overnight rate and negatively to the current real exchange rate. For Hong Kong, the overnight rate reacts positively to the inflation rate and the lagged overnight rate and does not react to other variables. For Singapore, the overnight rate is affected positively by the output gap and the lagged overnight rate and is not influenced by other variables. Hence, interest rate rules for some industrialized countries may not apply to Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore.     

基于海陆统筹的辽宁省海陆经济协调持续发展评价及演进特征分析

国家"十二五"规划将海陆统筹提升到与"五个统筹"同等重要的位置,由此奠定了海陆统筹的国家战略地位。本文从地理学角度对海陆统筹进行了分析与诠释,从海陆之间的互补性及关联性入手,选取DEA评价方法,构建了海陆经济协调持续发展的定量分析模型,为海陆经济协调持续发展提供了评价了思路。以辽宁省的"十一五"期间数据为基础,对辽宁省的海陆经济资源利用效率进行了评价分析,进而对辽宁省的海陆经济协调持续演变特征进行了系统总结。     

2000年以来外汇占款与物价因果关系的实证研究

文章利用现有的统计数据,围绕2000年以来中国外汇占款与物价之间的关系展开了较为详实的定量研究.文章具体考查了外汇占款、货币供应量以及物价等经济时间序列的平稳性,同时运用协整理论,对外汇占款与物价之间的关系进行检验,得出以下结论:中国的物价与外汇占款之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,长期内外汇占款的增加可能引发通货膨胀.结合我国开放经济下的货币政策,文章从货币政策的运行机理研究了外汇占款对中国货币政策和物价的影响途径,提出了对外汇占款进行管理的一些建议.