The political economy of constitutional choice: a study of the 2005 Kenyan constitutional referendum

Recent studies of the linkages between the wealth of nations and the institutions of governance suggest that concentrating political power in a monarchy or a ruling coalition impedes economic growth and, moreover, that while power-diffusing reforms can enhance the wellbeing of society in general, opposition by groups benefiting from the status quo is predictable. In November 2005, Kenyans rejected a proposed constitution that, despite promises made by their new chief executive, would not have lessened the powers of the presidency. Using a unique, constituency-level dataset on the referendum vote, we estimate a model of the demand for power diffusion and find that ethnic groups’ voting decisions are influenced by their expected gains and losses from constitutional change. The results also highlight the importance of ethnic divisions in hindering the power-diffusion process, and thus establish a channel through which ethnic fragmentation adversely impacts economic development.     

A macroeconometric framework for monetary policy evaluation: A case study of Pakistan

This paper attempts to establish the quantitative importance of the various channels of monetary transmission by constructing, estimating and simulating a small macroeconometric model of Pakistan's monetary sector, while using data from the monetary statistics and the monetary survey of the State Bank of Pakistan over 1976–2007. The paper elucidates that the key feature of the study of monetary policy in Pakistan has been preoccupied with neglect either of the demand or the supply function of money and shows how this may lead to imprecise policy actions and mistaken conclusions. Accordingly, we delineate the transmission mechanism of monetary policy by taking into consideration all structural money demand and money supply linkages along with the historically implied identifying assumption in the framework of a marginalized macroeconometric model. The within-sample and out-of-sample evaluations of the model are found satisfactory. The paper presents results of three policy simulations from the estimated model that highlight the impact of alternative monetary policy instruments on the monetary variables under a rule-based and a discretionary policy environment. We find that (i) the SBP subscribes to an unannounced monetary policy rule, (ii) the determination of the policy rate under the announced rule environment stabilizes the monetary sector in that convergence to full equilibrium is smooth and rapid, (iii) a 100 bps reduction in the discount rate, ceteris paribus, decreases money supply by 4.97%, and (iv) the long term implication of reducing (increasing) the reserve requirement ratio on time (demand) deposits, ceteris paribus, is only higher inflation. Finally, we establish that a 100 bps increase in interest rate increases money supply by 3.14% in full equilibrium.     

A uniqueness result for extending orders; with application to collective choice as inconsistency resolution

Two axioms about extending a weak ordering of a set Ω to its power set 2^Ω uniquely determine a lexicographic weak ordering of 2^Ω. The solution is applied to collective choice to resolve majority cycle inconsistencies, and also contrasted with Condorcet.     

Testing Gibrat's legacy: A Bayesian approach to study the growth of firms

Gibrat's law is a referent model of corporate growth dynamics. This paper employs Bayesian panel data methods to test Gibrat's law and its implications. Using a Pharmaceutical Industry Database (1987–1998), we find evidence against Gibrat's law on average, within or across industries. Estimated steady states differ across firms, and firm sizes and growth rates do not converge within the same industry to a common limiting distribution. There is only weak evidence of mean reversion: initial larger firms do not grow relatively slower than smaller firms. Differences in growth rates and in steady state size are persistent and firm-specific, rather than size-specific.     

A constitutional theory of public enterprise

This article rationalizes public enterprise by analyzing the constitutional choice between private and public ownership of production arrangements. Arguing that results depend on who does the choosing, the article compares choices by self-governing citizens with choices by self-directed governmental officials. The resulting institutional theory identifies four conditions that cause citizens to favor public over private ownership. None of the conditions refers to the standard concept of economic efficiency, which guides most economic comparisons of public and private enterprise.     

Fragile democracies and constitutional crises: a laboratory for studying the role of constitutional constraints

Constitutional Political Economy -     

Privatization when the public firm is as efficient as private firms

The literature on mixed oligopoly shows that when production costs are quadratic the public firm is privatized if the competition in the product market is high enough. Similarly, when the public firm is less efficient than private firms and the marginal costs of production are constant, the government privatizes the public firm if its efficiency is low enough. In this paper we analyze this issue assuming that the public firm maximizes the weighted sum of consumer surplus, private profit and the profit of the public firm. If all firms have the same marginal cost of production we obtain that for some value of parameters the government does not privatize the public firm regardless of how many private firms are competing in the product market. We also obtain that the consumer surplus can be lower in the mixed oligopoly than in the private oligopoly.     

The firm as an interactor: firms as vehicles for habits and routines

This paper pursues a research agenda inspired by Richard Nelson and Sidney Winters Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change (1982). This seminal work applied the Darwinian concepts of variation, replication and selection to the evolution of firms. It proposed a level of evolution, replication and selection at a level higher than individuals or genes, involving the replication and selection of routines and institutions. Significantly, the applicability or otherwise of these Darwinian concepts depends on precise definitions of terms such as replication and selection. The present essay builds on previous work where the concepts of replication (Godfrey-Smith, 2000; Aunger, 2002; Hodgson, 2003b) and selection (Price, 1995; Frank, 1998; Knudsen, 2002b, 2003) have been refined. We deploy the key concepts of replicator and interactor from the modern philosophy of biology (Hull, 1981, 1988). It is shown that while habits and routines can be regarded as replicators, there is a case for regarding firms and similarly cohesive organizations as interactors. We explore some of the implications of this result and provide an important component in the construction of a multiple-level evolutionary theory, involving replicating units at several socio-economic levels.JEL Classification: B25, B52, D20, D83, L20Correspondence to: Geoffrey M. Hodgson, Malting House, 1 Burton End, West Wickham, Cambridgeshire CB1 6SD, UK     

Forecasting financial distress for French firms: a comparative study

The aim of this paper is to compare three statistical methods predicting corporate financial distress. We use discriminant analysis, logistic regression and random forest (RF) methods. These approaches are evaluated based on a sample of 800 companies, composed of 400 healthy companies and 400 failed companies. This study covers the period from 2006 to 2008 using 33 financial ratios. The results show the superiority of the RF approach, which gives better results in terms of classification. It allows for better forecast accuracy because it minimizes type I and type II errors.     

国际投资协定中的非歧视性原则问题

在双边、区域和多边国际投资协定中，适用非歧视原则的目的与贸易协定相似：有利于优化国际资源配置；充当自由化利益扩散的催化剂；为所有参与者提供一个统一、基于规则的条约体系，增强投资行为的可预期性；减少交易和管理成本；为外国投资者提供一个更为透明、稳定、可预期的政策环境；增强外国投资者对东道国法律的信心。在国际投资协定谈判中，所面临的挑战也与贸易谈判基本一致：在使用非歧视原则的利益和保留适当灵活性，以支持国内投资者和生产者并实现在其他特定国内政策目标之间寻求一种可行的平衡。最惠国待遇和国民待遇最惠国待…     

A short history of constitutional liberalism in America

American liberalism emerged before the most famous European liberal intellectuals put their pens to paper. It was grounded partly on liberal ideas that were in the air before those works were written, but mostly on the attractive communities generated by liberal institutions and policies. American liberalism is empirically, rather than theoretically, grounded. This paper uses excerpts from colonial and constitutional documents to demonstrate the long history of liberal institutions in the territories that became the United States. American liberalism is an evolutionary rather than an intellectual phenomenon.     

A proposal for a more objective measure of de facto constitutional constraints

In this paper we propose two new indicators of de facto constitutional constraints. The indicators are based on the presence or the absence of easily observable political events. This makes the proposed measures relatively objective and easy to verify relative to the most widely used indicators of de jure and de facto constitutions. This paper describes the indicators and demonstrates their usefulness for research on economic development.     

A framework for mapping industrial emergence

The industrial landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic, with innovative technologies stimulating the emergence of new applications, business models and industries. This paper presents a framework for mapping science and technology-based industrial emergence, in order to better understand the nature and characteristics of such phenomena, as a basis for improved strategy development. A full lifecycle perspective is included, emphasizing early stage phases associated with scientific and technological developments, together with key transitions between phases related to the conversion of scientific knowledge to technological capability, application, industrial activity and economic value. Roadmapping concepts are used to map industrial emergence phenomena from various perspectives that cover value creation and capture activities together with demand and supply-side factors. The framework has been tested by developing more than 25 diverse ‘emergence maps’ of historical industrial evolution, building confidence that the framework might be applicable to current and future emergence. Common characteristics of industrial emergence have been identified, including key events and milestones, focusing on a chain of demonstrators that delineate the various phases and transitions.     

A general framework for the analysis of fiscal equalisation systems

This paper shows that, despite the existing diversity of models of fiscal equalisation, there is a common underlying structure that links all of them. To this end, a framework of analysis sufficiently general so as to encompass the main schemes present in the literature is developed. This allows to uncover the common features of these schemes and to identify more readily the origin and nature of their differences. The formal approach is complemented with a numerical simulation of the models considered. The paper also shows the usefulness of the approach for reform policy and suggests two new models.JEL Classification: H2, H7I would like to thank three anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions to a previous draft of this article.     

A conceptual framework for misfit technology commercialization

The emerging literature on outbound open innovation has highlighted innovation processes, which presuppose active outward technology transfer to increase firm profits. To contribute to this discourse, our paper goes beyond the emphasis on core-related technologies and knowledge that currently dominates the technology management literature and develops the novel concept of misfit technology. This concept captures technologies that are not aligned with a focal firm's current knowledge base and/or business model, but which may still be of great value to the firm if alternative commercialization options are considered. By developing a framework that acknowledges (1) Sources of misfit technology, (2) Environmental uncertainty, (3) Organizational slack, (4) Industry appropriability regime and (5) Technological complexity, we theorize on how different modes of commercialization relate to misfit technology commercialization success. The paper is conceptual and is presented with the purpose to spawn further research on this important topic, but simultaneously touches upon the issues of utmost relevance to R&D management practice.     

A modeling framework for enhancing aid effectiveness

ABSTRACT

The development literature lacks consensus about the link between aid effectiveness and governance improvement. A basic rational actor model is introduced to clarify how donors can influence recipient behaviors and more broadly how foreign aid can support or impede governance quality improvement. Adopting the underutilized perspective of donor behavior, this study identifies mechanisms through which aid hinders governance improvement and offers substantive recommendations about how donors can enhance aid effectiveness, including strategies for donors to raise the level of effort recipients devote to project success.     

Parliament vs. Supreme court: a veto player framework of the Indian constitutional experiment in the area of economic and civil rights

This essay is on the Indian constitution and extends and responds to the work of Singh (Constitutional Political Economy 17:17, 2006) in the analysis of economic rights. The veto player framework is used to analyze the development of economic rights which was diminished and civil rights (through Public Interest Litigation) which was expanded since Indian independence. The Congleton Model (Constitutional Political Economy 12:193–215, 2001) and Tsebelis Model (British Journal of Political Science 25(3):298–325, 1995) on veto players are used to develop the hypotheses and analyze the evolution of the Indian constitution.     

中国企业的需求导向创新实证研究

This paper analyzes the interrelationship among competition, market size and innovation by using the data from total 37 industries in China within a simultaneous equations model. It finds that: (1) Competition and innovation are mutually-enhanced, and this is the consequence of the long-run Darwinian effect in competitive market; (2) Market size and innovation are also positively correlated, because firms’ innovation is essentially demand-oriented (market-oriented), and innovation impelling technological progress will finally increase market size; (3) Between competition and market size, the effect of competition on market size is ambiguous, while the reverse is significantly positive. The policy implication of this paper is as follows: under the condition that China has especially huge market size and market demand, the industry policy of intensifying competition can stimulate firms’ persistent demand-oriented innovation.