转型经济中的货币金融市场改革——中国案例研究

本文根据作者对中国货币金融市场改革所作的研究,对中国经济体制改革和经济发展所取得的巨大成果进行了全面的历史回顾和充分肯定;对中国的财政金融体系改革和货币政策的实施效果进行了深入分析和客观评价;并通过广泛的国际案例比较分析,对中国的货币政策制定与货币区和金融市场的形成与改革提出了政策建议。     

MISPERCEPTIONS AND MONETARY POLICY IN A NEW-KEYNESIAN MODEL

This paper studies the consequences for the monetary policy design of information shortages on the part of the private sector. We model these shortages as exogenous shocks to expected income, which through an IS curve, disturb aggregate demand. We constrain policymakers to follow Taylor‐like rules but allow them to optimise coefficients: we find that the presence of misperceptions makes the optimised Taylor rule respond more aggressively to inflation and the output gap. We also find that if the policymaker is uncertain about misperceptions, then it is less costly to assume they are pervasive when they are not than the reverse. In other words, setting policy on the basis that the private sector is subject to misperceptions is a ‘robust’ policy.     

HETEROGENEITY IN A CURRENCY UNION WITH SOCIAL MARKET OBJECTIVES

In this paper, we explore whether heterogeneity among union members could threaten the stability of the European Monetary Union. The types of heterogeneity we consider are (1) asymmetries in the transmission of monetary and fiscal policies, and (2) differences in national preferences for price stability, output growth, and income redistribution. Our results show that the costs of membership can be significant for countries whose transmissions, structure, or preferences deviate from those underlying the common monetary policy. In part, these costs arise because monetary policy imposed by an independent central bank automatically constrains the use of fiscal policy by national governments.     

中央企业A股+H股整体上市及其对中国资本市场的影响

在分拆上市和单独境外上市对中国资本市场的不利影响日益凸显的情况下,中央企业A股+H股整体上市是兼顾企业利益和国家利益的现实选择。本文利用实证的研究方法,分析了中央企业先H股后A股、A股+H股同步和先A股后H股三种整体上市路径以及中央企业A股+H股整体上市对中国资本市场的影响,得出的结论是,三种中央企业A股+H股整体上市路径都能对我国资本市场的发展产生或多或少的积极影响;同时,中央企业A股+H股整体上市对包括中国香港在内的中国资本市场将产生多方面的积极影响。     

PORTFOLIO SELECTION BETWEEN A MATURE MARKET AND SELECTED EMERGING MARKETS INDICES IN THE PRESENCE OF STRUCTURAL BREAKS

The paper examines the influence of the structural breaks on the optimal weights, hedge ratios and hedge effectiveness index (HEI) of risk‐minimizing portfolios composed of S&P500 and selected emerging markets’ indices from East Europe, Asia and South America. We employ a bivariate DCC‐EGARCH models without and with structural breaks and we find better estimation features when structural breaks are included in the model. However, we do not find evidence that insertion of structural breaks increases portfolio hedging performances. The differences that exist between optimal weights, hedge ratios and HEI values are so small that tangible economic benefit for international investors do not exist.