Reinterpreting the convict labour market

The convicts transported to NSW between 1817 and 1840 were young, fit, highly literate and brought occupational skills which were broadly representative of the British and Irish working classes. In the colonial labour market where convicts were coerced, more labour was forthcoming and at a lower wage than in a free labour market. The assignment of convict labour in the colony was efficient; skilled urban and construction tradesmen were employed in the same jobs in NSW as they had held in Britain. Domestic servants and unskilled urban workers whose skills were not suited to the needs of the colony experienced job restructuring. The organization of convict workers into teams and gangs in Australia was similar to the way work was organized in free labour Britain, and a mbc of incentives and rewards characterized the extraction of work from convicts. The human capital of the transportees and the labour system within which they worked help to explain the rapid growth of the colonial economy before 1840.     

The Western Australian Convicts

British convicts transported to Western Australia between 1850 and 1868 were not as positively selected regarding their human capital as early historical accounts suggest. The heights of the convicts were not statistically different from those of British prisoners who were not transported. While few were skilled, the proportion of construction workers was higher than expected, consistent with selection for the needs of the colonial government's works on infrastructure. Data on inmates of Fremantle Prison allow validation of height measurements and occupational statements in the convict list. Australian-born prisoners were taller than those who came from Britain as free immigrants.     

Frontiers of mobility: Was Australia 1870–2017 a more socially mobile society than England?

There is longstanding pride among Australians that by throwing off the social class demarcations that defined their ossified colonial parent society, England, they created an open, socially mobile society. The paper tests this belief by estimating long run social mobility rates in Australia 1870–2017, using the status of rare surnames. The status information includes occupations from electoral rolls 1903–1980, and records of degrees awarded by Melbourne and Sydney universities 1852–2017. Status persistence was strong throughout, with an intergenerational correlation of occupational or educational status of 0.7–0.8, and no change over time. Mobility rates were also just as low within UK immigrants and their descendants, so ethnic group effects explain none of the immobility. The less pronounced class divisions of Australia compared to England did not enhance social mobility. A possible sign of enhanced Australian social mobility – the fact that surnames associated with convicts already had a modest elite status by 1870 – seems to derive from convicts transported to Australia from England being positively selected in terms of human capital.     

How Do Local Labor Markets and Human Capital Affect Employment Outcomes after Job Loss?

This article uses the Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics to evaluate how local industry concentration affects earnings losses for displaced workers. “Concentrated industries” are those industries with a high employment share within a labor market. This article compares earnings changes between displaced workers and job stayers within concentrated industries to the same within less concentrated industries. A separate comparison is made based on the expected level of job availability within the labor market. The findings show that earnings changes for displaced workers relative to job stayers are 7–13% higher within concentrated industries when job loss occurs during periods of high job availability. Earnings changes are 4.5–6% lower, however, when the same comparison is made during periods of low job availability. When firms are hiring workers, they are more likely to hire those previously employed within the same industry, since these workers have accumulated more relevant human capital.     

Trends in real wages during the industrial revolution: a view from across the Irish Sea

This article calculates cost of living indices for Ireland between 1785 and 1870 and real wage indices for agricultural labourers, textile workers, and building workers. These indices show gains in real wages which are not consistent with current hypotheses about widespread pre-Famine immiseration, though textile workers did experience a reduction in earning power. Before the Famine, wages proved sticky downwards in the face of falling prices; after the Famine, money wages rose faster than prices. A revised UK index suggests that real wages began their increase earlier, in the 1820s, and increased by around an additional 10 percentage points by 1870.     

Women of an uncertain age: quantifying human capital accumulation in rural Ireland in the nineteenth century†

Geary and Stark find that Ireland's post‐Famine per capita GDP converged with British levels, and that this convergence was largely due to total factor productivity growth rather than mass emigration. In this article, new long‐run measurements of human capital accumulation in Ireland are devised in order to facilitate a better assessment of sources of this productivity growth, including the relative contribution of men and women. This is done by exploiting the frequency at which age data heap at round ages, widely interpreted as an indicator of a population's basic numeracy skills. Because Földvári, van Leeuwen, and van Leeuwen‐Li find that gender‐specific trends in this measure derived from census returns are biased by who is reporting and recording the age information, any computed numeracy trends are corrected using data from prison and workhouse registers, sources in which women ostensibly self‐reported their age. The findings show that rural Irish women born early in the nineteenth century had substantially lower levels of human capital than uncorrected census data would otherwise suggest. These results are large in magnitude and thus economically significant. The speed at which women converged is consistent with Geary and Stark's interpretation of Irish economic history; Ireland probably graduated to Europe's club of advanced economies thanks in part to rapid advances in female human capital.     

An assessment of Ireland’s export-led growth strategy via foreign direct investment: 1960–1980

An Assessment of Ireland’s Export-Led Growth Strategy via Foreign Direct Investment: 1960-80. - Ireland’s export-led growth strategy using foreign direct investment as a vehicle for industrialization reveals many lessons for newly-industrializing economies in Europe and Asia. Using a relatively simple macroeconomic model of the Irish economy, this study sought to ascertain if government subsidies and grants were a significant locational determinant for foreign direct investment and if foreign direct investment led to the expansion of exports, capital formation, employment, and output. The results show that from 1960-80 Irish exports, output, and manufacturing employment grew, but so did the dependence and vulnerability of the Irish economy.     

Convict workers: a review article

Convict workers, edited by Stephen Nicholas, offers a new interpretation of convictism in Australia. The main new findings are that (1) convicts were not professional criminals but ordinary British and Irish working–class men and women, and (2) the system of assigning convicts to private employers was economically efficient. This review suggests that these findings are not supported by the evidence presented.     

Industry-specific human capital and the wage profile: Evidence from Taiwan

Using data from Taiwan's Manpower Utilization Survey (1979–2000), this paper finds evidence that supports the industry-specific human capital effect on wage tenure profiles. Work experience is used as an indirect measure for testing industry-specific human capital by comparing the effect between stayers and movers. Other things being equal and holding firm tenure constant, movers actually incur a wage loss measured by the wage premium of the work experience. However, a greater than average firm tenure effect, especially for movers in the voluntary group, reflects an underlying job-related matching process. We also find that the effect of work experience declines with education, while the effect of industry-specific human capital increases with education. JEL no. J24, J31, J41, J62.     

Skills,Origins and Literacy: A Comparison of the Bounty Immigrants into New South Wales in 1841, With the Convicts Resident in The Colony

In 1841, some 20,000 assisted immigrants arrived in New South Wales (including the province of Port Phillip) augmenting the existing population by approximately 15 per cent. Most of the European population consisted of convicts or ex‐convicts. The characteristics of the bounty immigrants who landed in 1841 have been analysed by McDonald and Richards, while a sample of approximately 20,000 convicts transported to New South Wales have been analysed by Nicholas et al. The main purpose of this article is to construct tables that, for the first time, compare the characteristics of all participants in the two inflows on, as far as possible, a common basis. The two groups display major differences in terms of sex, age, geographical origin, literacy, religion, and occupational skills. The novelty of this article is its provision of a new set of tables and its contextual analysis of the differences between the quantifiable characteristics of these two colonial workforces.     

Response to Edwards and Ogilvie

Our article on ‘Late marriage as a contributor to the industrial revolution in England’ is intended to show that the evidence is consistent with the European marriage pattern being a major influence on long‐run English economic development, through the accumulation of human capital, broadly defined. Edwards and Ogilvie assert that our approach is inadequate because, they claim, we consider neither other influences on English industrialization, such as non‐familial institutions, nor other European economies where marriage age was high throughout the early modern period but where industrialization came later. We do allow for other influences on English industrialization in our model, and the observation that some late industrializers had later marriage than England does not refute our contention, which we test appropriately by simulating the model.     

人力资本、歧视与农民工收入——基于浙江省问卷调查数据的实证研究

本文基于人力资本理论和歧视理论对农民工和城镇职工工资差距进行的实证研究表明,人力资本是导致农民工低收入的主要原因,其中教育对工资差距具有决定性影响;歧视对农民工收入起重要作用,其中反向歧视已成为农民工歧视的主要表现形式。实现农民工收入增长和城乡劳动者平等就业必须"两手抓",一手抓农民工人力资本提升,一手抓制度改革消除对城镇职工的保护和偏袒。     

What Drives Ireland’s Housing Market? A Bayesian DSGE Approach

We study the drivers of fluctuations in the Irish housing market by developing and estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of Ireland as a member of the European Economic Monetary Union (EMU). We estimate the model with Bayesian methods using time series for both Ireland and the rest of the EMU for the period from 1997:Q1 to 2008:Q2. We find that housing preference and technology shocks are the main drivers of fluctuations in house prices and residential investment. A standard regression analysis shows that a good part of the variation of housing preference shocks can be explained by unmodeled demand factors that have been considered in the empirical literature as important determinants of Irish house prices.     

The labor market and the distribution of landholdings in pre-Famine Ireland

The size distribution of landholdings varied widely in pre-Famine Ireland. Its determinants are of great interest given the catastrophe of the Great Famine. This paper divides holdings into labor-deficient and labor-surplus. The statistical analysis consists of fitting a lognormal distribution to the holding data and regressing the estimated parameters on the physical characteristics of the locality, such as land quality, and on the economic environment and in particular population density. Their influence operates through the labor market on the sides of both supply and demand. The model explains the inequality in the holding distribution better than the central tendency.     

Brain drain,brain gain,and economic growth in China

We have used Chinese provincial data (1980–2005) to examine the effects of permanent and temporary emigration on human capital formation and economic growth in source regions. First, we find that permanent emigration is conducive to the improvement of both middle and high school enrollment. In contrast, while temporary emigration has a significantly positive effect on middle school enrollment it does not affect high school enrollment. Moreover, the different educational attainments of temporary emigrants have different effects on school enrollment. Specifically, the proportion of temporary emigrants with high school education positively affects middle school enrollment, while the proportion of temporary emigrants with middle school education negatively affects high school enrollment. Finally, we find that both permanent and temporary emigration has a detrimental effect on the economic growth of source regions.     

The first Sterling Area†

Between the eleventh century and mid‐thirteenth century a Sterling Area evolved in the British Isles, with a common currency based upon the English silver penny and equivalents of it produced in Scotland and Ireland. This Sterling Area began to contract in the second half of the fourteenth century, when reductions in the bullion content of Scottish coins ended the equivalence of the English and Scottish currencies, and in the fifteenth century Ireland developed its own coinage. Estimates of the currency of the Sterling Area are provided, taking the chronology of its growth and contraction into account. Estimates of the sterling currency are not estimates of the currency of England, and they cannot be combined with data relating exclusively to England in economic modelling, without qualification. Per capita currency estimates and values of coin hoards and single coin finds are at a high level around 1400, falling in the second half of the fifteenth century, indicating that the European ‘bullion famine’ of the 1390s to c. 1415 had less effect on the currency than the second late medieval bullion crisis, from the 1430s to the 1460s.     

Consumption and material culture in sixteenth‐century Ireland1

New evidence from a series of 11 Bristol customs accounts indicates that Irish consumption patterns underwent significant changes over the course of the sixteenth century. This article considers the use of the Bristol ‘particular’ accounts and port books as a source for Irish material culture and consumption studies and uses the customs data as a statistical framework on which to establish how, why, and to what extent patterns of consumption changed in Ireland. It considers who was consuming the increasing range of commodities that were imported into Ireland from Bristol towards the end of the century, and what changing consumption patterns may reveal about the nature of Ireland's economy, society, and culture during this critical period in Irish history.     

CONTRACTING CONVICTS: THE CONVICT LABOUR MARKET IN VAN DIEMEN's LAND 1840–1857

The place of penal transportation in Australia's economic history has always been controversial. Convict workers were frequently denigrated as worse than useless, yet without convicts the settlements would have lacked sufficient labour for development. In Van Diemen's Land in the 1840s, convicts constituted more than half the labour supply, and if emancipists are included it was more like three-quarters. After transportation to New South Wales was halted in 1840, amidst claims that the assignment of convict labour was akin to slavery, Van Diemen's Land continued to receive transportees but adopted a new form of labour management: the so-called 'probation system'. To distinguish the new probation system from the 'slavery' of assignment, wages were paid to convict workers. This study uses 17,997 convict employment contracts to explore the labour market for convict passholders at the probation period. Actions speak louder than words, and irrespective of what might have been said about convict quality, by the end of transportation in 1853 convict workers were eagerly engaged at rising wages by employers desperate for labour.     

Transatlantic steerage fares,British and Irish migration,and return migration, 1815–60

This article argues that the massive increase in transatlantic British and Irish emigration after 1840 was enabled by declining fares and ocean travel costs. New series of transatlantic steerage fares drawn from the unique Cope Line records at the Historical Society of Pennsylvania (HSP) show westward fares fell rapidly from 1830. Adjusted for British and US manual wages, westward travel costs, including provisions, almost halved between 1847 and 1851–3, when Irish migration peaked. Hence although the Irish had to leave Ireland, they might not otherwise have gone so extensively to North America. Eastward travel costs also fell after 1830, encouraging an unexpectedly large return migration to Britain in the late1850s, and maybe earlier.