货币界定研究综述与评介

货币定义的界定直接关系到货币量的统计及货币政策调控经济的能力。货币的形态和内涵随着经济发展和社会进步不断变化演进,所以学者们从不同的视角对货币进行了不同的定义。文章在大量资料基础上,梳理了货币的本质与货币数量的规定性方面的已有研究,并做出了更符合当前实际的、与时俱进的认识和阐释。     

货币“迷失”与我国货币、汇率政策选择

考察1985～2003年我国货币资金的“迷失”现象,可发现这种货币的迷失本身是由货币供给的内生性导致的,尤其是由于很大一部分迷失的货币没有进入实体经济部门、没有形成有效的货币供给导致的。我国大量存在的货币资金迷失现象动摇了蒙代尔—弗莱明模型和我国货币政策关于货币供给外生性的假设前提,这一方面使得蒙代尔不可能三角不再绝对成立,另一方面也削弱了我国货币政策实施的效果,货币政策当局在制定货币政策时有必要对此有所关注。     

The myth of a stable European money demand

Recent empirical studies suggest that an aggregate EC-wide money demand function is more stable than national money demand functions in the European Community. If true, this would facilitate monetary policy after Economic and Monetary Union. The evidence presented in this paper, however, shows that in general there is no relationship between the size of a currency area and the stability of its demand for money. I conclude that the stability of European money demand is a statistical artifact and has nothing to say about money demand stability in a future larger European currency area.     

FACTORS INHIBITING DEFLATIONARY BIAS IN CURRENCY BOARD ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM THE COLONIAL ERA

A traditional criticism of currency boards is that they impart a deflationary bias to growing economies. Three factors, however, may inhibit the bias: increases in the velocity of money; increases in the monetary base, which under a currency board occur only through balance-of-payments surpluses; and increases in the money multiplier. This article investigates each of the factors in Fiji, Ghana, Jamaica and Malaya over various periods near the end of the colonial era. Except in Malaya, where the money multiplier declined, all helped prevent deflationary outcomes. In broad terms, growth in the monetary base was the most important.     

Did taxes,decrees or credibility drive money? Early nineteenth century Finland from a chartalist perspective

Chartalist theories assume the government determines the currency used by the public. Finland’s experience following the Russo-Swedish war in 1808–1809 would seem to contradict the chartalist view. Having become a Grand Duchy under Russia, the Finnish Government sought to replace Swedish riksdalers in circulation with roubles. However, due to a resilient trade surplus with Sweden and the resulting flood of Swedish money into Finland, bans on the riksdaler were largely ineffective. Taxation proved a particularly clumsy tool for leveraging the switch to roubles. Taxpayers almost forced the government to accept payments in a foreign currency. Even the government had to use Swedish money. Issuing roubles was of limited use. As a result, the rouble failed to establish itself as Finland’s main currency until the introduction of a silver standard in 1840–1842.     

货币演进的内在机理及其贬值规律

文章从货币演进的视角出发,梳理了货币贬值的内在规律;在金属货币阶段,贵金属开采业以及海外贵金属流入量影响铸币购买力的变动,政府介入之后,币值往往受到政府法定购买力和货币相对商品数量的影响;信用货币时代,由于货币具有乘数效应,私人银行或政府若过度发行货币会导致货币贬值幅度较大;货币国际化之后,为了获得国际铸币税收益,政府往往采用通货膨胀政策不断对外输出货币,这种制度最终要走向衰亡。     

电子货币供给机制分析

电子货币的发行与传统的货币供给机制有很大差别,在网络经济下电子货币的供给有两种形式:一是电子货币仅作为支付手段时的供给机制,二是电子货币作为银行一般性负债时的供给机制.网络经济下电子货币的供给完全是一种竞争性的市场行为,随着电子货币的发展,必将对传统的由中央银行垄断货币供给的机制提出挑战.     

货币的权利属性及其实践运用

货币长期以来一直都作为特殊动产被划分为动产范畴,适用动产的物权变动规则来明确货币的权利属性。但由于实践中货币的＂两面性＂导致其外在形态变化多端,且适用范围广大,直接适用动产属性进行界定与规制显然不能适应货币的特殊变动规则。本文结合货币的定义及其属性,明确＂占有即所有＂的流转规则,重新审视货币被直接归纳到动产范畴的合理性,提出将货币独立为特殊动产,与动产,不动产并列的建议,并且提出有关货币在实践流通中遇到问题的解决办法。     

The demand for money in a small open economy: The case of Switzerland

The paper uses cointegration analysis to investigate the demand for money in Switzerland in the context of an open economy. It considers the general process of financial asset substitution and tests for the relevance of an exchange rate and a foreign interest rate variable in a conventional money demand equation. The results show that the variables entering into the demand for either monetary base or narrow money equation may not form a cointegrated system unless the exchange rate or foreign interest rate variable is included. This provides support to both the currency substitution and capital mobility hypotheses.     

The Benefits and Costs of an International Currency: Getting the Calculus Right

Does it pay to issue an international money? Should a government promote internationalization of its currency? And if so, how might policy makers shape cross-border use to maximize net gains? The aim of this essay is to address these old questions anew, in hopes of providing clearer insight into the strategic calculus involved. Scholars have debated the net benefits or costs of currency internationalization for decades. Yet despite much sound and fury little analytical consensus exists. The conventional literature is marred by at least three critical defects, which might be called the three M’s—Misconceptions, Misplaced Concreteness, and outright Mistakes. A proper appreciation of the three M’s, I endeavor to show, can take us a long way toward getting the calculus right.     

Currency substitution and the stability of the Italian demand for money before the entry into the monetary union, 1972–1998

A money demand function for M2 is estimated for Italy for the period 1972–1998 within an error correction framework. This period has been characterized by major structural changes in the Italian financial system and by major changes in monetary policy. This study takes these changes into account. Moreover, currency substitution, especially between Italy and Germany is incorporated into the model. By accounting for structural breaks and currency substitution a stable money demand function can be found.Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 373, is gratefully acknowledged. We thank Uwe Hassler, Goethe Universität, Frankfurt, and Carsten Trenkler, SFB 373, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, for helpful comments. An earlier version has been presented at the ESEM 2001, Lausanne.     

The case against currency boards

Conclusion We have argued that a CB is a creation of the state, aiming at granting particular political favors, and purposefully designed to secure the reappearance of an independent domestic money producer. A CB establishes a foreign fiat money standard enforced by legal tender laws for its bank notes, which are mere money substitutes in the context of fractional-reserve commercial banking. This insight helps us to understand why CBs have always degenerated into national central banks of the modern type: they were intentionally created to do so. This surely will also be the fate of present-day CBs. Although technically the transition from a CB to a commodity money (gold or other commodity standard) is facilitated by the warehouse aspect of the currency board, this institution does not present any incentive for the policy-makers to subject the production of money to the regulation of the free market. The paper was presented at the Southern Economic Association meeting, New Orleans, 2002.     

虚拟货币法律关系研究

虚拟货币法律关系的主体包括发行人、消费者和签约网络服务商三类,发行人发行虚拟货币,消费者和签约网络服务商使用虚拟货币系统。虚拟货币法律关系的客体是一种小额资金划拨行为。虚拟货币发行人与消费者之间主要存在有一种使用虚拟货币作为支付结算工具的合同关系。     

One money to two monies? Monetary policy in the CFA franc zone, 1968-1993

This paper investigates the monetary policy implications ofthe CFA franc zone from the viewpoint of the stability of moneydemand during the period prior to the 50% devaluation of 1994and the imposition of restrictions on the convertibility ofthe two constituent currencies in 1993. By estimating the staticand dynamic money demand functions, money demand was found tobe structurally more stable for the CFA franc zone as a wholethan either for any of the constituent currency unions or, asexpected, for any of the individual countries. This means that,prior to 1994, the CFA franc zone could be considered as a singlemonetary area despite the existence of two currency unions.     

外汇储备超常增长下的财政政策选择

2001年以来,我国外汇储备加速增长,到2006年10月份突破1万亿美元,成为世界第一大外汇储备国.巨额外汇储备造成了外汇占款激增,增加了基础货币投放,致使当前我国通货膨胀压力加大,进一步削弱了货币政策独立性和有效性.为此,文章提出利用适度扩张的财政政策,即通过政府发行长期债券的方式吸纳多余的外汇储备,扩大内需,调节经济内外平衡.     

Internationalization of the use of Chinese currency: perspectives from the New and the Ancient Silk Roads

In this paper, we provide an up-to-date analysis of issues and perspectives related to the potential international and regional use of the Chinese currency, with a special focus on the New Silk Road (or One Belt, One Road OBOR) initiative as well as an examination of the use of various forms of Chinese money along the Ancient Silk Road. From the perspectives of China, the OBOR project fulfills several national objectives, with the internationalization of the RMB being one potential aim. We adopt and extend an agglomeration-geography model and apply the model to the OBOR initiative and the resulting increased use of the Chinese currency. Our paper also provides a discussion of the experiences of using various forms of Chinese money along the Ancient Silk Road.     

Currency Substitution and the Stability of the Demand for Money in East Asia

Abstract

This paper models and tests the stability of the demand for money in five East Asian countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—in the context of an open economy. The Johansen multivariate cointegration vector error correction analysis against quarterly data covering the period 1985:1–2001:4 was used. It was found that a stationary long run cointegrating relationship exists between broad money, real income, domestic interest rates, foreign interest rates corrected for exchange rate depreciation, and the expected rate of depreciation of the exchange rate. The results show that US Treasury bills rates and the foreign exchange rate vis-à-vis the US dollar play a significant role in the East Asian countries money demand relationship. This suggests that currency substitution vis-à-vis the US dollar may be an important consideration in the design and implementation of monetary policy in the East Asian countries. Furthermore, the results show that the Asian currency crises impacted the money demand functions negatively in these countries. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests show no evidence of parameter instability of the money demand functions in three of the five countries throughout the period under investigation.     

我国外汇占款影响货币供给的实证研究

近年我国外汇储备的持续增长,造成外汇占款大幅增长,最后引致货币供给增加。本文将对我国外汇占款对货币供给的影响作用进行实证分析,结果表明我国外汇占款和货币供给量M2之间存在稳定的均衡关系,我国外汇占款的巨剧增长,容易导致货币市场失衡。     

美国量化宽松政策对亚太新兴市场国家的影响

量化宽松是美联储在通货紧缩下所采取的一种直接创造货币、扩大央行资产负债表规模的非传统货币政策。量化宽松将给我国等新兴市场国家造成较大的负面效果,建议采取临时性资本管制、针对性量化政策、建立区域货币离岸市场、加快经济结构转型等对策来应对。     

Optimum Currency Areas in Emerging Market Regions: Evidence Based on the Symmetry of Economic Shocks

This paper examines which emerging market regions form optimum currency areas (OCAs) by assessing the symmetry of macroeconomic shocks. We extend the output-prices-VAR framework by adding net exports and the real effective exchange rate as endogenous variables. Based on theoretical considerations, we derive which shocks affect these variables in the long run: shocks to labor productivity, foreign trade, labor supply, and money supply. The considered economies of Central and Eastern Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States, East and Southeast Asia, and South Asia, exhibit large enough shock symmetry to form a currency union; the economies of Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East do not.