An empirical analysis of the nexus between external balance and government budget balance: The case of the GIIPS countries

The present study investigates the causality relationship between the external (trade and current account) balance and government budget balance for five countries of the euro area's Mezzogiorno, namely Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. These countries, due to their weak economic and financial performances, have been labelled the GIIPS group. The analysis is implemented using two methodologies: the traditional Granger test and the approach developed by Toda–Yamamoto. The results reveal homogeneity in using both approaches and give support to the Ricardian theory, according to which there is no clear nexus between budget-current account balances and budget-trade balances. This implies that fiscal austerity could help the five peripheral countries to conform to the budget deficit criteria as established by the Stability and Growth Pact, but would not be effective in restraining external deficits.     

Benchmarking institutional variety in the eurozone: An empirical investigation

The European debt crisis has shown that the future of the European Union (EU) depends on the willingness of each member country to implement responsible policies, avoid moral hazard and uncooperative attitudes, and ensure stability and soundness. However, the European institutional variety means that each member country reacts differently to shocks and policies, follows a different path of recovery, and adapts to common institutions, including the common currency, in different ways. Helping countries to converge toward a situation that guarantees well-being, stability, and development at the national and community level is the goal of the European benchmark. This benchmark is a framework inspired by European treaties that, through the distance-to-frontier score methodology, aims to measure member countries’ performance and identify inefficiencies and negative externalities within the economic, social, and political institutions of each member country. The paper presents an empirical investigation of the European benchmark. Based on the results obtained, all countries can improve their performance, and none of them can be considered a model for the others. However, the Mediterranean and post-communist countries have more challenges to face and therefore need to make greater efforts.     

An empirical investigation of U.S. bank risk and the Mexican peso crisis

This paper examines two pairs of hypotheses about the effect of the Mexican Peso crisis on U.S. bank stock returns. We use a three-index market model as our empirical methodology because bank stocks are influenced more by both interest rate risk and foreign exchange risk than other non-banking stocks. The results show that the market reacted to each event promptly, supporting semi-strong market efficiency. To find out whether these effects created a domino effect in the U.S. banking system, a set of cross-sectional regressions were run. In general, the empirical results support the investor-contagion hypothesis, which indicates that the market penalized or rewarded banks without regard to their ecposure to the market for Mexican loans.     

Credit in the euro area: An empirical investigation using aggregate data

This paper uses multivariate cointegration techniques to estimate a model of aggregate bank lending in the euro area. The model provides a quantitative benchmark for assessing conjunctural developments in loans to the area-wide private sector. Large and protracted deviations of realised loans from the paths implied by the model may reveal information about the emergence of financial imbalances as well as about the state of the economy, particularly about the strength of inflationary pressures. A specific application of the model shows that its error-correction term contains information on future changes in inflation over forecast horizons of relevance for monetary policy.     

Multi-step forecasting in emerging economies: An investigation of the South African GDP

To forecast at several, say h, periods into the future, a modeller faces a choice between iterating one-step-ahead forecasts (the IMS technique), or directly modeling the relationship between observations separated by an h-period interval and using it for forecasting (DMS forecasting). It is known that structural breaks, unit-root non-stationarity and residual autocorrelation may improve DMS accuracy in finite samples, all of which occur when modelling the South African GDP over the period 1965–2000. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of 779 multivariate and univariate models that combine different techniques of robust forecasting. We find strong evidence supporting the use of DMS and intercept correction, and attribute their superior forecasting performance to their robustness in the presence of breaks.     

后现代资本结构理论的形成与发展:契约理论视角

后现代资本结构理论共同的特征是将资本结构看成是协调企业财务主体冲突、解决代理问题的契约制度安排.体现内生性完备契约思想的代理理论是后现代资本结构理论早期成果,其最新的发展是基于不完备契约理论的控制权状态依存观.后现代资本结构理论弥补了现代主流财务理论内在的制度性缺失,该理论也大大推动了我国内生性财务理论研究的发展.     

Term structure models and the zero bound: An empirical investigation of Japanese yields

When Japanese short-term bond yields were near their zero bound, yields on long-term bonds showed substantial fluctuation, and there was a strong positive relationship between the level of interest rates and yield volatilities/risk premiums. We explore whether several families of dynamic term structure models that enforce a zero lower bound on short rates imply conditional distributions of Japanese bond yields consistent with these patterns. Multi-factor “shadow-rate” and quadratic-Gaussian models, evaluated at their maximum likelihood estimates, capture many features of the data. Furthermore, model-implied risk premiums track realized excess returns during extended periods of near-zero short rates. In contrast, the conditional distributions implied by non-negative affine models do not match their sample counterparts, and standard Gaussian affine models generate implausibly large negative risk premiums.     

Innovation and corporate sustainability: An investigation into the process of change in the pharmaceuticals industry

Although there has been considerable research effort directed at refining the content of corporate environmental performance, e.g. corporate environmental reporting and accounting, there has been relatively little empirical investigation to date on the process of corporate eco‐change. This research reports on the quantitative and qualitative results of a survey of German and UK pharmaceuticals firms, which evaluated the significance of the various incentives, both intra‐firm and external to the organization, that have stimulated eco‐change. We find that, although the industry is one that has been characterized by voluntary agreements and proactive behaviour in the past, regulation still remains the main driver for sustainability improvements. New technology is the second most important driver. Stakeholder dialogue and inter‐firm cooperation were both revealed to be relatively weak forces for eco‐change. The study also tested the validity of the conventional neo‐classical economic world‐view of innovation in firms versus a more radical co‐evolutionary one. The former assumes that firms respond only to profit signals and do so efficiently, whereas the latter assumes that change is path dependent; i.e., the firms’ norms and routines and past experiences are influential. We find that, although the neo‐classical perspective stands up to our empirical investigation of eco‐innovation to some degree, the co‐evolutionary approach better captures the complexity of the corporate eco‐change process. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. and ERP Environment     

Information disclosure ratings and managerial short-termism: An empirical investigation of the Chinese stock market

Information asymmetry between managers and outside investors creates agency problems and impedes efficient capital allocation. Information disclosure is critical in alleviating information asymmetry in capital markets. This study investigates the effect of information asymmetry on managerial short-termism by examining information disclosure ratings (IDRs). Using real earnings management as a proxy for managerial short-termism, our analysis of a sample of Chinese A-share companies during 2001–2018 indicates that high IDRs mitigate managerial short-termism. The results also indicate that the effect of IDRs in reducing managerial short-termism is driven mainly by stock liquidity. This conclusion holds after consideration of endogeneity and application of two-stage least-squares and generalized method of moments methods, adjustment of the definition of IDRs, consideration of alternative proxies for managerial short-termism, and control for firm characteristics that might affect the extent of managerial short-termism. This study also examines the effects within three subsamples: companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange main board, small and medium enterprise board, and growth enterprise market board. IDRs substantially reduce managerial short-termism among firms listed on all three boards. These findings indicate that enterprises have corrected previous internal governance problems, and IDRs have helped to improve internal governance through stock liquidity. Therefore, external supervision also helps to reduce the agency problem of managerial short-termism.

     

Adapting Productivity Theory to the Quadratic Cost Function. An Application to the Spanish Electric Sector

In this article we have adapted productivity analysis to the case of a cost model using a quadratic cost function and discrete data. The main theoretical result is a productivity index that can be decomposed into modified versions of the contribution of technical change and the effect of the variations in the scale of production. This framework has been applied to the study of the Spanish electric sector from 1985 to 1996, during which relevant regulatory changes were introduced in order to increase productivity. For this, a normalized quadratic cost function was estimated. The results show important productivity gains with both technical change and scale effect playing important roles.     

Veblen's Theory of Institutional Change: An Explanation of the Deregulation of Japanese Financial Markets

A bstract In his 1915 essay "The Opportunity of Japan," Thorstein Veblen theorized that traditionai Japanese institutions would undergo evolutionary change as Japan exploited borrowed industrial technology and became integrated into the global business enterprise system. This article explains the recent liberalization of Japanese financial markets which followed Japan's rise to economic prominence within the context of Veblen's theory of institutional development of the enterprise system. The Japanese process of financial deregulation is reviewed, Veblen's predictions Japan are presented and an explanation provided for the liberalization of Japanese financial markets .     

Current account and real effective exchange rate misalignments in Central Eastern EU countries: An update using the macroeconomic balance approach

We make an assessment of the current account and price competitiveness of the Central Eastern European countries that joined the EU, using data up to 2016. Foreign capital flows, fiscal balance and relative output growth seem to play a crucial role in explaining the current account balance. The real effective exchange rate gaps behave in accord with the current account misalignments, which clearly display cyclical behaviour. When foreign direct investments are introduced as a determinant, the misalignments are larger in boom periods (positive misalignments), whereas the negative misalignments are smaller in magnitude. Overall, the countries have moved closer to their equilibria since 2010.     

Additive Structural Decomposition Analysis and Index Number Theory: An Empirical Application of the Montgomery Decomposition

In recent years, a large number of empirical articles on structural decomposition analysis, which aims at disentangling an aggregate change in a variable into its r factors, has been published in this journal. Commonly used methods are the average of the two polar decompositions and the average of all r! elementary decompositions (Dietzenbacher and Los, 1998 Dietzenbacher, E. and Los, B. 1998. Structural decomposition techniques: sense and sensitivity. Economic Systems Research, 10: 307–323. [Taylor & Francis Online] [Google Scholar], D&L). We propose to use instead the ‘ideal’ Montgomery decomposition, which means that it satisfies the requirement of factor reversal imposed in index number theory. We prefer it to the methods previously mentioned. The average of the two polar decompositions is not ‘ideal’, so that the outcome depends on the ordering of the factors. The average of all elementary decompositions is ‘ideal’, but requires the computation of an ever increasing number of decompositions when the number of factors increases. Application to the example of D&L (four factors) shows that the three methods yield results that are close to each other.     

所有权性质、盈利能力与商业信用的提供——基于再分配理论的实证研究

商业信用是企业最重要的短期外部融资来源之一,对于无法获得银行贷款的企业更是其最重要的外部融资渠道。文章通过对我国A股制造业上市公司的实证研究,发现在控制了规模、成立时间、行业竞争性等因素后,银行短期借款越多的公司提供了更多的商业信用,支持了商业信用的"再分配"观。研究结论还表明,利用银行信用提供商业信用再分配的现象只在非国有上市公司中存在,盈利状况较差的非国有上市公司在银行信用的基础上提供了更多的商业信用。     

一种复杂企业系统分析的有效方法--约束理论的思维流程评述

在简要介绍约束理论及其思维流程基本内容的基础上,分析讨论了其思想原理、理论特色与优点,并探讨了其当前尚存在的一些问题与不足之处。     

交易效率、市场规模与贸易发展--新兴古典贸易理论的一个实证检验

近年来国际贸易的发展对传统贸易理论提出了挑战。以杨小凯为首的一批经济学家利用其创立的超边际分析框架,从劳动分工和专业化的角度来解释当代的贸易现象,该理论也被称为新兴古典贸易理论。本文根据该理论对交易效率和市场规模对贸易发展影响的刻画,利用面板数据的估计方法,对新兴古典贸易理论进行了实证检验。检验的结果无法令人信服地证明该理论的优越性,反而支持西方主流经济学中所谓的“新贸易理论”。     

Development Theory and the Multilateral Development Banks: An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Strategies Used in International Development Finance

Abstract . Although they are leading institutions in the world of modern development finance, the multilateral development banks have not been very explicit in outlining the development theories upon which they base their loan operations. This paper assesses the utility of the three prime theories employed by these institutions: the project approach, the macroeconomic (gap theory) approach, and the social welfare (or income distribution) approach. It indicates the questions to which each approach addresses itself, and it indicates weaknesses and theoretical inadequacies of each as a primary or sole development tool. Only a balanced and careful use of all these sometimes contradictory approaches will permit the multilateral lending institutions to fulfill their multifaceted obligations.