Using revealed and stated preference data to estimate the scope and access benefits associated with cave diving

In a single-site travel cost model framework, revealed and stated preference data are jointly estimated to provide the first use-value estimate associated with recreational cave diving. Focusing on one of Florida's first magnitude springs, we estimate average per-person per-trip use values of approximately $155, generating annual cave diving use values in the region of $1075. Further, in an investigation of potential site quality changes, we find that divers are sensitive to scope effects with an additional cave system increasing annual per-person use values by approximately $100, while improved access yields an additional $50 in per-person annual consumer surplus. Finally, three additional model specifications are estimated and indicate that divers use different travel cost preferences when assessing their revealed and stated preference trip counts but a single preference structure to evaluate site quality changes.     

The recreational value of coral reefs: A meta-analysis

Coral reefs are highly productive ecosystems that provide a variety of valuable goods and services, including recreational opportunities. The open-access nature and public good characteristics of coral reefs often result in them being undervalued in decision making related to their use and conservation. In response to this, there now exists a substantial economic valuation literature on coral reefs. For the purposes of conducting a meta-analysis of this literature, we collected 166 coral reef valuation studies, 52 of which provided sufficient information for a statistical meta-analysis, yielding 100 separate value observations in total. Focusing on recreational values, we use US$ per visit as the dependent variable in our meta-analysis. The meta-regression results reveal a number of important factors in explaining variation in coral reef recreational values, notably the area of dive sites and the number of visitors. Different valuation methods are shown to produce widely different values, with the contingent valuation method producing significantly lower value estimates. Using a multi-level modelling approach we also control for authorship effects, which proves to be highly significant in explaining variation in value estimates. We assess the prospects for using this analysis for out-of-sample value transfer, and find average transfer errors of 186%. We conclude that there is a need for further high-quality valuation research on coral reefs.     

Evaluating the effects of area closure for recreational fishing in a coral reef ecosystem: The benefits of an integrated economic and biophysical modeling

This paper presents an integrated agent-based model of recreational fishing behavior within a reef ecosystem as a platform for the evaluation of recreational fishing management strategies. Angler behavior is described using econometrically estimated site choice models, with site choice among anglers driven by site attributes and angler characteristics. The biophysical model represents the marine reef environment as a system with different trophic levels identifying algal and coral growth as well as two types of fish (piscivores and herbivores). Ecosystem dynamics are driven by interactions within the trophic levels and interaction between fish populations and fishing activities.The model is used to simulate recreational fishing activities and their interactions with the environment. Recreational fishing sites from the Ningaloo Marine Park, an iconic coral reef system in Western Australia, are used as a case study. A set of management strategies, including “business-as-usual” and different site closure durations, are assessed for two different levels of fishing pressures. The results show that not only the effectiveness but also the distribution of management impacts across space and over time can be very different from what one would expect without the benefit of integrated modeling.     

The relationship between the markets for health insurance and medical malpractice insurance

This article evaluates the interdependence of medical malpractice insurance markets and health insurance markets. Prior research has addressed the performance of these markets, individually, without specifically quantifying the extent to which they are linked. Increasing levels of health insurance losses could increase the scale of potential malpractice claims, boosting medical malpractice losses, or could embody an improvement in medical care quality, which will reduce malpractice losses. Our results for a state panel data set from 2002 to 2009 demonstrate that health insurance losses are negatively related to medical malpractice insurance losses. An additional dollar of health insurance losses is associated with a $0.01–$0.05 reduction in medical malpractice losses. These findings have potentially important implications for assessments of the net cost of health insurance policies.     

Choice and success of job search methods

Job seekers influence the arrival rate of job offers by the choice of search effort and the search methods they use. In this paper we empirically investigate the effect of different search methods on search outcomes. We use unique data on the search behavior of job seekers in Austria, which matches survey information with administrative records. We analyze the quality of job matches in terms of wages and job durations for employed and unemployed workers. We find that the public employment office specializes in the support of low quality workers. For them it is equally efficient as other search channels.     

Estimating the clinical effectiveness and value-based price range of erenumab for the prevention of migraine in patients with prior treatment failures: a US societal perspective

Background: Frequent migraine with four or more headache days per month is a common, disabling neurovascular disease. From a US societal perspective, this analysis models the clinical efficacy and estimates the value-based price (VBP) for erenumab, a fully human monoclonal antibody that inhibits the calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor.

Methods: A Markov health state transition model was developed to estimate the incremental costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and value-based price range for erenumab in migraine prevention. The model comprises “on preventive treatment”, “off preventive treatment”, and “death” health states across a 10-year time horizon. The evaluation compared erenumab to no preventive treatment in episodic and chronic migraine patients that have failed at least one preventive therapy. Therapeutic benefits are based on estimated changes in monthly migraine days (MMD) from erenumab pivotal clinical trials and a network meta-analysis of migraine studies. Utilities were estimated using previously published mapping algorithms. A VBP analysis was performed to identify maximum erenumab annual prices at willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of $100,000–$200,000 per QALY. Estimates of VBP under different scenarios such as choice of different comparators, assumptions around inclusion of placebo effect, and exclusion of work productivity losses were also generated.

Results: Erenumab resulted in incremental QALYs of 0.185 vs supportive care (SC) and estimated cost offsets due to reduced MMD of $8,482 over 10 years, with an average duration of treatment of 2.01 years. The estimated VBP at WTP thresholds of $100,000–$200,000 for erenumab compared to SC ranged from $14,238–$23,998. VBP estimates including the placebo effect and excluding work productivity ranged from $7,445–$13,809; increasing to $12,151–$18,589 with onabotulinumtoxinA as a comparator in chronic migraine.

Conclusion: Erenumab is predicted to reduce migraine-related direct and indirect costs, and increase QALYs compared to SC.     

Valuing improved hurricane forecasts

The value to households of improved hurricane forecasts is estimated from a pilot survey using discrete choice econometric methods. Each household is willing to pay approximately $13 for improvements in forecast attributes such as landfall time and position, wind speed, and storm surge.     

Macroeconomic costs to large scale disruptions of food production: The case of foot- and-mouth disease in the United States

We forecast the economic consequences of a widespread contamination of the food system based on a hypothetical outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Since the immediate effect on the livestock sector could affect the entire supply chain and US livestock, meat and dairy exports, we measure these impacts using GTAP, a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the global economy. The immediate “shocks” to the US livestock, raw milk and other animal products sectors indirectly affect all sectors of the economy, as well as international markets and trade. We decompose these effects due to each component of the initial shocks, and estimate the importance of these shocks to the national food system for the Mid-Atlantic Region using IMPLAN. Our GTAP results indicate that losses to the USA economy would be about $11.7 billion, and with the ripple effect throughout the rest of the world including beneficiary nations (Argentina, Brazil, Latin America, Australia and New Zealand) and losers (Canada, Mexico, European Union) would be 14.1 billion. We estimate the proportion of the domestic impact affecting the Mid-Atlantic Region. Based on a regional input–output model of that region, we estimate that total losses in value added are nearly $800 million; losses in labor income total about $565 million; and there are job losses of just over 12 thousand.     

Non-linearity in the determinants of capital structure: evidence from UK firms

We demonstrate that, by exploiting more fully the distribution of leverage, conditional quantile regression methods yield new insights into the choice of leverage ratio. For UK listed companies we find that not only is the estimated effect of the explanatory variables different at different quantiles of the distribution, but also that the effect of a variable changes sign between low leveraged and high leveraged firms.      

The Economic Value of Water Quality

Stated preference values for water quality ratings based on the US Environmental Protection Agency National Water Quality Inventory ratings provide an operational basis for benefit assessment. Iterative choice survey results for a very large, nationally representative, Web-based panel imply an average valuation of $32 for each percent increase in lakes and rivers in the region for which water quality is rated “Good.” Valuations are skewed, with the mean value more than double the median. Sources of heterogeneity in benefit values include differences in responses to average water quality information and the base level of water quality. Conjoint estimates are somewhat lower than the iterative choice values. The annual economic value of the decline in inland US water quality from 1994 to 2000 is over $20 billion.      

Wind turbines and coastal recreation demand

We examine the impact of coastal wind turbines on local coastal tourism and recreation for residents of the northeastern coastal counties in North Carolina. A combination of telephone and web survey data are used to assess the impact of coastal wind farms on trip behavior and site choice. Most of the respondents to our telephone survey claim to support offshore wind energy development, and independent survey data suggest that the observed levels of support may be indicative of the broader population in this region. Overall, we find very little impact of coastal wind turbines on aggregate recreational visitation; loss in annual consumer surplus associated with wide spread wind development in the coastal zone is insignificant at $17 (or about 1.5% of annual consumer surplus). Results suggest that NC local coastal tourists are averse to wind farms in the near-shore zone; average compensating variation for wind farms one mile from the shore is estimated at $55 per household. On average, we find no evidence of aversion to wind farms 4 miles out in the ocean, or for wind farms located in coastal estuaries. For all wind farm scenarios, we find evidence of preference heterogeneity—some respondents find this appealing while others find it aversive.     

Reference Dependence Effects on WTA and WTP Value Functions and Their Disparity

In this study we investigate two reference dependence effects in a choice experiment. The first is the effect of the well-known distinction between gains and losses, the second is the effect of changing the reference value on willingness to pay (WTP) and willingness to accept (WTA). The latter has to our knowledge not been studied before. We hypothesize that there are differences between WTA and WTP, and that both value functions and their disparity are affected by the absolute value of the reference point. We test our hypotheses using a choice experiment with trade-offs between changes in flood probabilities and costs. The choice experiments elicit WTP and WTA, using two flood probability reference values, yielding four separate value functions. Our findings show that a substantial WTA–WTP disparity exists, and that this disparity increases when moving away from the reference point. Also, both WTA and WTP value functions are affected by the flood probability reference value, and the WTA–WTP disparity increases when the flood probability reference point increases. Both findings suggest that welfare effects caused by changes in public good provision depend not only on the direction of change (loss aversion), but also the reference value. Moreover, our results show that the latter effect is larger for losses than for gains. We introduce the concept of reference point updating as a possible explanation for these findings.     

Measuring wage discrimination in Italy: a random-coefficient approach

Using data from a representative 1989 household survey for Italy we estimate random-coefficient earnings frontiers by gender, marital status and location. These estimates are used to calculate discrimination indices. Our results show that fixed coefficients can be rejected in all cases. A wide range on the estimated coefficients indicates a high degree of variation in the quality of the observed human-capital variables as well as different degrees of ability as perceived by the employer. We find reverse discrimination for single females in the South and the North. For married females there is evidence of discrimination, particularly in the South. We isolate the effects of tenure and education on discrimination and find that these reduce discrimination for Southern-married females.     

Using an integrated choice and latent variable model to understand the impact of “professional” respondents in a stated preference survey

Internet panels are increasingly used for stated preference research. Because members of such panels receive compensation for each completed survey, one concern is that over time this creates professional respondents who answer surveys solely for the monetary compensation. We identify professional respondents using data on panel tenure, survey response frequency, completion rate and total number of completed surveys. We find evidence of two types of professional respondents: “hyperactives” who answer surveys frequently and “experienced” who have long panel tenure and a large number of completed surveys. Using an integrated choice and latent variable model on stated preference survey data, we find that “hyperactive” respondents are less likely to choose the 'status quo’ and have a more stochastic choice process as seen from the econometrician's point of view, whereas “experienced” respondents have a relatively more deterministic choice process. Our results show that “hyperactive” respondents significantly impact estimated values.     

The role of intergenerational mobility in internal migration

This paper investigates the role of intergenerational mobility in the internal migration decisions of families. The geographic variation in intergenerational mobility suggests that if parents value their children's human capital accumulation and future outcomes, they would have an incentive to move to areas with a higher upward mobility. To identify the effect of intergenerational mobility on family migration, we first use an instrumental variable approach, based on a heteroskedastic covariance restriction, which addresses measurement-error and omitted-variable biases. Then, we apply the semiparametric maximum score estimation method to our empirical model, which yields a consistent estimator when families' choice sets are partially observed. We find that highly educated families with school-aged children choose areas that favor upward mobility. Our welfare analysis indicates that a unit increase in the absolute upward mobility of a commuting zone is equivalent to approximately a $722 higher mean wage in the local labor market.     

Social Comparisons in Ultimatum Bargaining

Experiments are used to examine the effects of social comparisons in ultimatum bargaining. We inform responders about the average offer before they decide whether to accept or reject their specific offer. This significantly increases offers and offer‐specific rejection probabilities. For comparison, we consider another change in informational conditions: telling responders the total pie is $30—ex ante it was either $15 or $30—affects offers and rejection probabilities roughly as much. Our results are consistent with people’s dislike for deviations from the norm of equity but inconsistent with fairness theories, where people dislike income disparity between themselves and their referents.     

The value of non-personally identifiable information to consumers of online services: evidence from a discrete choice experiment

We estimate the value of non-personally identifying information to consumers of online services through a discrete choice experiment based on hypothetical streaming video services. Non-personally identifying information for online services is typically information on the ways in and times at which customers use the service, and is distinct from personally identifying information such as email addresses or telephone numbers. For most of our survey respondents, we find no evidence that they were willing to pay to avoid sharing their non-personally identifying information with third parties. A smaller group of respondents never selected a service that shared information with third parties.     

Economic cost–benefit analysis of the addictive digital game industry

This study attempts to estimate the economic costs and benefits of the addictive digital game industry. Addiction to digital games induces economic costs such as increase in crime, facilities investments for curbing addiction, increase in counselling costs and other welfare losses. As a case study, we investigate the digital game industry in South Korea which is known to have one of the highest rates of game addiction. According to our calculations, the annual cost of game addiction is estimated to be approximately $3.5B while the annual benefit is approximately $24.3B ($3.7B for addicted user market). The proportion of the total costs to total benefits from the game industry is an alarming 14% (95% for addicted user market). We offer some policy recommendations.     

Real Estate Market Policy and Household Demand for Housing

This paper used an estimated mixed multinomial logit model of household housing demand to examine the impact of four housing market‐related policies on a stated preference survey sample. The estimated demand probability function suggested that household choice behaviour does show huge heterogeneity. The estimated results were then employed to examine the effects of the policies. We estimated the potential disequilibrium between demand and supply under the construction‐size‐limitation policy, demonstrated that the efficient movers' subsidy increases along with the household income, and simulated the changes in housing demand when tax policy is changed. We demonstrate the potential usefulness of our modelling framework in assisting policy‐making decisions. Our model also partially explains the failures and controversies of the latest real‐estate intervention policies in China.     

Heterogeneity in Values of Morbidity Risks from Drinking Water

This paper reports the stated preference values for reducing the morbidity risks from drinking water estimated using a nationally representative U.S. sample of 3,585 households. Based on the average annual gastrointestinal (GI) illness risk in the U.S. from drinking water of about 5 illnesses per 100 population, eliminating the GI risk has a median annual value per household of $219. The considerable heterogeneity in the values arises largely from differences in attitudes towards risk and price sensitivity. Using interval regressions, we find that valuations are greater for those who perceive a high personal risk, consume a large quantity of tap water, or are environmentalists. The paper explores several methodological issues pertaining to the iterative choice format involving a choice between two policies characterized by their cost and GI risk. The analysis adjusts for starting point effects by basing valuations on the tradeoffs that are estimated to prevail at the ??equitable tradeoff rate,?? which is the starting cost-water quality tradeoff rate that produces a 50?C50 split in the initial policy choice between policies with greater tradeoff rates and policies with lower tradeoff rates. The heterogeneity in valuations is also explored by examining quantile regression results and the determinants of the unbounded valuation amounts at the low and high extremes.