“滞胀”危险逼近

在宏观调控下中国经济增长放缓,但同时美元义无反顾的贬值推动中国通货膨胀继续走高。我们并不能就此说中国发生了滞胀,但是我们可以说,中国存在发生滞胀的危险,这是坚守人民币汇率的代价     

"滞胀"危险逼近

在宏观调控下中国经济增长放缓，但同时美元义无反顾的贬值推动中国通货膨胀继续走高。我们并不能就此说中国发生了滞胀，但是我们可以说，中国存在发生滞胀的危险，这是坚守人民币汇率的代价。     

分享经济:评价与启示

<正> 自从六十年代末七十年代初资本主义世界出现滞胀现象以来,各种试图解释和医治这一痼疾的经济理论和政策主张纷纷出笼。这些理论和政策大都是从传统的宏观经济学和凯恩斯的需求管理角度观察问题,而美国1984年出版的《分享经济》一书则代表着一种独特的分析思路。作者马丁·L·威茨曼从微观的企业行为,从企业中劳动报酬的分配制度入手来解释和分析滞胀产生的原因,并相应地提出了解决问题的方案,即“分享制度”和“分享经济”。一威茨曼的分享经济的思想和政策主张可以归结为以下几个基本方面:对滞胀原因的认识;根除滞胀的理论;政策的具体实施。 1.滞胀是怎样产生的?     

非真实因素对通货膨胀的影响研究

通货膨胀是一种让消费者在心理和收入方面难以接受或承受的价格持续上涨现象,它反映物价上涨水平持续超过劳动力生产率和收入增长率的水平.通货膨胀是经济活动中真实因素和非真实因素共同作用的结果.治理通货膨胀的关键是优化货币信贷结构,增加基础经济部门的投入与供给,而不是简单地减少货币供给量.防止"滞胀"应成为当前中国宏观调控的中心任务.     

中国经济是否会出现“滞涨”？

本文在总结前人研究的基础上，通过计量分析预测未来三年我国GDP仍将保持9％左右的较高增速，CPI将在今年三季度达到本轮通胀的峰值，四季度将开始回落。本文认为中国经济在未来几年内不会出现‘滞胀”现象，一是我国尚处在发展的初级阶段，尚有经济潜力可挖；二是我国经济对外依赖度不高；三是政府财税收入增长较快，负债率在可控范围；四是中国政府拥有巨额外汇储备，可抵御外来风险。但是，要挚埸我国潜在经济‘滞胀”的风险，一是较高的通胀压力；二是逐步提高的劳动力成本；三是失衡的供需结构；四是动荡的国际形势。最后，本文提出防范和化解潜在‘滞胀”风险的四项政策建议。     

防止“滞胀”渐成宏观调控第一要务

经济增长停滞的同时通货膨胀却加剧——20世纪30年代带来美国乃至整个西方经济大萧条的“滞胀”会不会现身中国?中国的工业产能过剩从2005年开始进入集中释放期,投资需求增速已出现回落;同时, 结构型和输入型通胀未来几年又势难避免。在防止“滞胀”成为主要趋势的头等要务上,当前的宏观调控显然既缺乏经验又毫无准备。     

中国经济滞胀风险的根源与防范探讨

当前中国通胀压力持续,经济增长放缓,面临“低增长、高通胀”的滞胀风险。究其根源,在于出口下滑与产能过剩、产权和分配制度的缺陷、人口红利消失、流动性过剩以及生产要素价格上涨。因此,必须采取综合性措施,既要防止通胀问题,又要避免因政策过分紧缩导致经济增长过快下滑,陷入经济停滞的困境。     

解决中国当前宏观经济低迷状况的对策分析——基于里根经济学的认识

中国的宏观经济呈现出通胀压力与失业形势并存的滞胀现象,与20世纪80年代美国的经济状况极为相似。借鉴里根经济学的合理之处,建议通过减低税收、采取放宽融资等扶持中小企业的政策、鼓励科技创新以及改善教育体系等对策,促进中国经济的复苏。     

我国维持通货稳定可采纳的政策配置

通货膨胀既是一种货币现象,也是一种经济现象.它与经济增长有着密切的联系--经济增长达到一定水平时通货膨胀率也相应攀升.随着我国经济的飞速发展,从2003年下半年开始,我国已开始出现轻微的通货膨胀,国家正在采取政策措施抑制经济的过热增长,维持通货稳定.     

经济滞胀风险及其宏观政策选择

我国经济的深层隐患不仅是通胀问题,更是通胀、停滞与失业并存的"滞胀"问题。相关分析表明,滞胀的风险来自于"投资拉动、出口依赖"的经济增长方式、货币超经济发行、流动性过剩、收入分配失衡、外部输入性以及不合理的经济体制等因素的叠加作用。抑制政府的投资冲动和财政需求,保障民生、促进社会公平、培育新的经济增长点,实现经济的内生型增长是今后我国宏观政策的关键所在。     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

Nonlinearity in Stock Exchange Markets: The Case of Bist 100 Indices

In this paper,using data for the Bist 100 index,we investigate the presence of nonlinearities by employing several nonlinearity tests.The Brock,Dechert,and Sche...     

Solidified Branding Function: How the Urban Brand Affects a Small Town’s Development? Case Study of Wangqingtuo,Tianjin, China

Chinese small towns are usually developed with single core industry,and the urban brand is the identity of a town that formed with the development of its indust...     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。