穿越困境

如果把盤古银行比做树木,那么如今盤古银行枝繁叶茂,再也不像当年幼苗新枝,需依仗大树的"蔽荫"来保护自己 1973年"10月14日事件"以后,政局的变化,使得巴博·乍鲁沙畅元帅决定辞去银行董事长之职.这次事件成为盤谷银行重要的转折点.政治上由"独裁专制"进入民主时代.董事会首次做出决定,由银行内部人选继任董事长之职,最终一致推举由当时原任董事总经理的陈弼臣先生兼任董事长.     

盤谷银行业务转向中国--访泰国盤谷银行常务董事长陈有汉先生

著名华人银行家,泰国盤谷银行现任董事长陈有汉先生,曾被泰国商界誉为"获杰出成就、知名度最高的泰国企业家".1997年亚洲金融危机以前,盤谷银行是东南亚排名第一的私营商业银行.在香港ASIA Business评出的全球最受欢迎的250家公司中,盤谷银行排第18位;在英国IBCA评出的全球300家盈利最高的银行中,盤谷银行排第5位.     

"全能银行"发展模式

盤谷银行立志提高工作水准,成为除日本外亚洲地区最大的杰出银行 这方面工作已经取得了很大的进展,银行晋升到这一水平,就能够为各界人士提供国内外一切金融服务,盤谷银行根据这一战略,加快拓展国外分行,在中国和印度支那地区加强发挥金融作用.银行注意到,这些国家由于实行开放政策,并逐渐过渡到市场经济体制,经济发展相当迅速.     

以支持中小企业为己任

1999年,盤谷银行着手支持中小企业经营者改革计划. 中小企业数目之众,占泰国公司总数的92%,是泰国经济的一支重要力量.然而,这些经营者大多数仍需按国际标准改进其工作系统,并需要在向金融机构申请援助时获得指导.     

启动"农业发展计划"

盤谷银行新推出的一项信贷计划,称为"农业发展计划",这项计划着重扶助将新发明技术应用于农产品种植过程的农业项目,1999年,这项计划仍处于研究阶段,中部地区率先试行,2001年年初开始全面开展计划.     

新发明与新产品

盤谷银行与威莎电子系统首次合作,推出"Belst"电子记账卡,这是一款通过电子系统付账加上顾客签名认账的记账卡.Belst卡时髦,颜色鲜艳,顾客还可以选择将照片影印在卡上的办法,这款卡因而很快就获得顾客的普遍欢迎.     

从见习职员到常务董事长

陈有汉先生的银行家生活,随着盤谷银行的总资产大幅增长和名声远播而为泰国内外人民所知,人们对他个人和陈弼臣家族拥有的财富作了种种预测,有些外国杂志不惜投资对他和陈弼臣家族拥有的财富做了全面的评估,推崇他拥有的财富足以成为全球屈指可数的大富豪.     

以“银行+”思维破解河北省小微企业融资困境

当前我国小微企业进入了黄金发展时期,而小微企业融资难的问题仍然制约着河北经济发展.“银行+”思维,即“银行+”模式:银行+银行模式、以银行+保险模式、以银行+企业模式、以银行+资本市场模式、银行+担保机构和银行+政府模式,不失为缓解小微企业融资难的有效方法.     

中小微企业授信模式创新思考

从近几年国内一些银行发展中小微企业贷款的实践情况看,中小微企业市场给银行带来了丰厚利润和转型机遇,是银行未来需要重点开拓的领域.学界关于中小微企业融资研究问题的文献可谓汗牛充栋,然而很多基于纯理论所提出的政策建议给人隔靴搔痒的感觉.本文以银行如何从中小微企业贷款中获益并控制风险的视角出发,借鉴西方经济发达的国家和国内先进银行管理经验,结合银行实务操作,试图探索高效开拓中小微企业信贷市场的方法和路径.     

以“银行+”思维破解小微企业融资难题的思考

当前我国小微企业进入了黄金发展时期,随着京津冀一体化进程的推进,小微企业融资难的问题依然制约着河北省经济发展.本文通过“银行+”思维,即六个“银行+”模式:银行+银行模式、银行+保险模式、银行+企业模式、银行+资本市场模式、银行+担保机构和银行+政府模式,寻找破解小微企业融资难题的方法.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.