Evaluating the potential of agent-based modelling to capture consumer grocery retail store choice behaviours

Evolving consumer behaviours with regards to store and channel choice, shopping frequency, shopping mission and spending heighten the need for robust spatial modelling tools for use within retail analytics. In this paper, we report on collaboration with a major UK grocery retailer to assess the feasibility of modelling consumer store choice behaviours at the level of the individual consumer. We benefit from very rare access to our collaborating retailers’ customer data which we use to develop a proof-of-concept agent-based model (ABM). Utilising our collaborating retailers’ loyalty card database, we extract key consumer behaviours in relation to shopping frequency, mission, store choice and spending. We build these observed behaviours into our ABM, based on a simplified urban environment, calibrated and validated against observed consumer data. Our ABM is able to capture key spatiotemporal drivers of consumer store choice behaviour at the individual level. Our findings could afford new opportunities for spatial modelling within the retail sector, enabling the complexity of consumer behaviours to be captured and simulated within a novel modelling framework. We reflect on further model development required for use in a commercial context for location-based decision-making.     

Quantifying barriers impeding the diffusion of supermarkets in China: The role of shopping habits

The present study contributes to the literature on supermarket diffusion by incorporating shopping habit factors, beyond socioeconomic factors and store characteristic factors, into a framework for predicting consumers' choice to shop in traditional versus modern retail formats. Further, this study aims to estimate the relative importance of these variables compared to other factors. Our results show that socioeconomic factors have minimal impact on consumer choice. Shopping habit factors have as great or even larger impact as market-relevant and product-relevant attributes, especially for fresh-food and cooked-food shopping.     

The effects of in-store themed events on consumer store choice decisions

Retailers are increasingly using in-store events to provide shoppers with unique experiences that will enhance shopping value and help differentiate their stores from competitors. However, relatively little is known about how consumers respond to experiential retail events in terms of their store choice decisions. The purpose of this research was to find out how in-store retail events affect consumers in terms of their store choice decisions. The paper presents findings from a discrete choice experiment that manipulated the presence of different types of in-store themed events in a do-it-yourself (DIY) category. Participants were 312 randomly recruited residents of Melbourne, Australia, who had recently shopped at a hardware store. The experiment was implemented as a mail-back survey. Using logit models the authors assess the effects of the in-store events along with those of various traditional store attributes, including store appearance, price image and distance, on consumer store choice decisions.     

The use of multinomial choice analysis in international business research

Many strategic decisions made by firms involve a choice among several discrete alternatives. International Business (IB) scholars are often interested in modelling the factors that potentially influence these (multinomial) choices: these factors might include not only characteristics of the firms making the choices but also attributes of the alternative choices. This paper provides a succinct and intuitive introduction to the possible applications of multinomial choice models in IB research. We briefly outline the theory behind discrete choice modelling, and then explain how multinomial choice models may be estimated (including how the datasets need to be formatted) and how the significance of the coefficient estimates as well as the diagnostic statistics may be tested and interpreted.     

The effects of acquisition and transaction shopping value perceptions on retail format usage intentions: an illustration from discount stores

Although it becomes increasingly important for food retailers to understand what motivates consumers to use one retail format rather than another, research on retail format choice is sparse compared to store choice. This study examines the extent to which perceived acquisition value of shopping at a retail format and perceived transaction value of shopping at one particular retail format outlet in a specific situation have an impact on retail format usage intentions. In addition, we study the influence of different situation-specific factors on perceived transaction value of shopping at one particular retail format outlet. Taking discount stores as an example, the developed conceptual model is empirically tested using a structural equation approach. The results show that perceived acquisition value of shopping at the retail format plays a dominant role in explaining retail format usage intentions, while perceived transaction value of shopping at one particular retail format outlet, which depends on certain situation-specific factors, is of lesser importance.     

Store format choice in an evolving market: role of affect,cognition and involvement

Store choice has been studied extensively in the literature, but store format choice has had limited research attention. The store format choice for bulk grocery purchase being a rational context is well conceptualized in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) framework. Attitude behaviour linkages are well explored but there is rare consensus on the components of attitude, their interrelationship and resultant impact on conation. The Theory of Reasoned Action has evolved over time to incorporate perceived behavioral control and past behavior to improve its explanatory capability as TPB; however, it has maintained its unidimensionalist approach and has not tested affect and cognition independently for its impact on behavior. This paper explores a Converging framework of the Affect and Cognition components of attitude and tests their independent impact on store format choice behaviour. The results indicate that Affect operates independently and has stronger impact on format choice especially in more evolved and familiarized contexts whereas cognitive evaluation is strong in relatively newer formats. There seems to be an interplay between Cognition and Affect over time with cognition transitioning into affect as familiarity with choices increases.     

Retail atmospherics: The impact of a brand dictated theme

Although retail atmospherics has been an active area of study, a glance around a typical mall indicates many retailers still do not actively differentiate their retail environment from competitors. This is likely due to retailers considering the atmospheric elements (lighting, music, etc.) individually and making decisions regarding the elements based on what is “standard” for their customers, merchandise, and format. This approach leads to very little differentiation and fails to consider that today’s consumer is often expecting a more multi-sensory, interactive, and holistic shopping experience. This paper considers an alternative approach, where a brand dictated “theme” is used to guide the manipulation of the atmospheric elements. This allows retail brands to break free from standard design to create a more interactive, immersive, and authentic environment. Outcomes include increases in shopping enjoyment, positive brand attitudes, and brand loyalty. T-tests are utilized to compare the two approaches within both the apparel (Study 1) and restaurant (Study 2) industries.     

Gender differences in the interpretation of web atmospherics: A selectivity hypothesis approach

This paper sets out to explore the role of gender as a moderator of the relationship between web atmospheric cues and virtual visitor's attitudes. In a laboratory experiment, the web atmospherics of a museum website – conceived as high and low task relevant cues – are manipulated so as to assess their impact on attitude toward the website and attitude toward the brand. The findings indicate that low task relevant cues are associated not only with higher attitude toward the website but with more positive evaluations of the brand as well. Gender has a moderating effect on both relationships of interest: In the absence of low task relevant cues, males develop less favorable attitudes toward the site and the brand, while females' attitude remains consistent across both experimental conditions. The findings are interpreted from a Selectivity Hypothesis viewpoint, which attributes gender differences in cognitive evaluations, to differences in information processing style. The study underscores the value of web atmospherics for service branding, elucidating the benefits for webpage design. It also supports the relevance of the Selectivity Model in the Internet context and highlights its significance in the sphere of online attitude development.     

Experiencing atmospherics: The moderating effect of mall experiences on the impact of individual store atmospherics on spending behavior and mall loyalty

Retailers invest in atmospherics to create effective environments that engage shoppers in their shopping journey and promote business success. However, the link between store-level atmospherics and mall-level experiences remains opaque. In a quasi-experimental field study, we confirm that the quality of in-store atmospherics positively impacts in-store spending and reveal for the first time that it also positively influences loyalty intentions toward the mall as a whole. Both effects are mediated by perceived store atmosphere and moderated by mall experiences. The effects on spending are stronger for shoppers who are seeking hedonic experiences (seductive, recreational, and social) and are less interested in the functional experience. However, the impact on mall loyalty is stronger for shoppers pursuing material (functional) and avoiding social experiences. For retailers and mall owners, these findings underscore the importance of matching store atmospherics with mall experiences. Similarities and differences in the effects of atmospherics between and within the store and mall levels are discussed.     

An alternative perspective on relationships,loyalty and future store choice

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to provide an alternative perspective for retailers to develop relationships and loyalty. This study suggests that traditional trust and commitment theories are somewhat imperfect in predicting future store choice. Through path modelling, we introduce two additional constructs of store functional loyalty and relationship worth. These constructs together with commitment are powerful predictors of future store choice. Furthermore, the study examines the antecedents of relationships, loyalty and future store choice. We conclude with new insights and practical suggestions for retailers to build relationships, loyalty and influence customers' future store choice.     

Open all hours: spatiotemporal fluctuations in U.K. grocery store sales and catchment area demand

Conventional population estimates do not account for spatiotemporal fluctuations in populations over a diurnal timescale at the level of retail store catchments. This presents challenges for the retail location-based decision making process which seeks to predict sales volumes and their temporal characteristics prior to new store construction. We present a novel analysis of the temporal fluctuations of store sales, evidencing links between the spatiotemporal distribution of specific population subgroups and temporal store sales. Previous research linking spatiotemporal populations and store sales is limited owing to the fact that commercial data are not openly available to academic research. However, this research has unprecedented access to store level temporal sales data and an established loyalty card scheme from a major UK grocery retailer making these analyses possible for the first time. Additionally, we demonstrate that current store classifications were inadequate for grouping stores with similar sales profiles and propose four new clusters of stores based on the times of the day that they generate revenues. This development has clear academic and commercial benefits, aiding our understanding of consumer behaviours and a novel solution for improved location modelling. We lay the foundations for further research building spatiotemporal demand fluctuations into retail location models.     

Consumer and retailer perceptions of hypermarkets and traditional retail stores in Portugal

Since its appearance in the mid 1980s, the hypermarket is a symbol of the modernisation of Portugal. It has dramatically changed not only the retailing structure in this country but also Portuguese buying behaviour. To better understand these changes, personal interviews were conducted with 500 Braga consumers. In addition, a mailed survey was administered in the same market to 204 traditional retailers. The results show that, for consumers, the hypermarket is the preferred type of retail store for frequently purchased packaged goods, due to its low prices and convenient one-stop shopping. The perception of traditional retailers is that the hypermarkets affected them negatively. The comparative analysis suggests that, although consumers do not have a negative opinion about traditional retail, they do not share the same favourable opinion that traditional retailers have about themselves.     

Mediated-moderated effects: High and low store image,brand awareness,perceived value from mini and supermarkets retail stores

This paper addresses how different store formats moderate the relationship between store image and purchase intention, mediated by brand awareness and perceived value. Questionnaire data was collected through face-to-face interviews with retail customers on the streets of a city in southern Brazil. Hypotheses testing were performed using the partial least squares structural equation modeling, supported by Smart-PLS and the Bootstrapping procedure run in the Process software. The model's sample included 298 retail customers for each store format (supermarket and mini-market). Results showed that store image positively impacted customer purchase intentions and the mediators, perceived value and brand awareness, which had a distinct effect on the direct relation of store image and purchase intention. Store format presented moderation effects on the relation between store image and brand awareness for both store formats: the higher the perception of store image, the greater the consumer's brand awareness. However, store format did not present a moderating effect on the relationship between brand awareness and purchase intention. Store image was found to be an important independent construct that improves brand awareness and increases perceived value. The number of mini-markets in Brazil is increasing, indicating that they are supplying a need unmet by supermarkets. The study design's implementation in the city streets, respondents were requested to imagine store image, which may have affected some of the parameters. The model integrated store image as an important construct influencing purchase behavior and this study presented a mediated-moderated model with managerial implications.     

A nested logit model of brand choice incorporating variety-seeking and marketing-mix variables

We model the effects of variety-seeking and marketing-mix variables on consumers' purchases of coffee using a nested logit model. We premise that on any given purchase occasion, the utilities of brands other than the one purchased on the previous occasion may be correlated due to the consumer's tendency to seek variety or to avoid variety. This results in a two-level hierarchical model where choice on any purchase occasion is conditioned on the brand purchased on the immediately preceding occasion. Such a structure accounts for variety seeking and inertia tendencies of consumers and is consistent with a hierarchical decision process, where consumers first decide whether or not to make a repeat purchase and then decide which brand size to purchase. The assumed hierarchical structure is shown to be consistent with observed coffee purchase behavior, and the model is shown to outperform a nonhierarchical logit model in predicting consumers' brand choices.     

Opportunities and risks of combining shopping experience and artistic elements in the same store: a contribution to the magical functions of the point of sale

ABSTRACT

This article draws on the construct of store atmospherics to address one of the latest developments in that field, i.e. the strategy of incorporating artistic elements into the store. On the one side, incorporating artistic elements in store atmospherics constitutes an innovative way for retailers to differentiate their shopping experience. Such a hybrid retail strategy seeks to offer maximised hedonic gratification to store visitors, while adding symbolic value to the commercial offering. Store traffic and sales are thus stimulated. Incorporating artistic elements is also a magic way to conceal the store’s transactional purpose; through this association with the art world, the store is viewed as less mercantile. However, there is a risk that consumers will view the store as a ‘museum’ and visit without purchasing. Therefore we conduce a conceptual investigation of that experiential strategy in order to assess its effects on retailer’s commercial and marketing performance.     

The impact of perceived crowding on consumers' store patronage intentions: Role of optimal stimulation level and shopping motivation

Abstract

Past empirical studies leave open the question of whether perceived crowding has a positive or a negative effect on shopping outcomes (Eroglu, Machleit, & Barr, 2005 Eroglu, S.A., Machleit, K.A. and Barr, T.F. 2005. Perceived retail crowding and shopping satisfaction: the role of shopping values. Journal of Business Research, 58(8): 1146–1153. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Hui & Bateson, 1991 Hui, M.K. and Bateson, J.E.G. 1991. Perceived control and the effects of crowding and consumer choice on the service experience. Journal of Consumer Research, 18(2): 174–184. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Based on the premise that shopping is a social phenomenon involving hedonic as well as utilitarian motivation, this study hypothesizes an inverted U-shaped relationship between perceived crowding and consumers' store patronage intentions. Additionally, past research considers the mediating role of emotions in the relationship between perceived crowding and shopping outcomes. In this research, the authors argue that consumers' cognitive evaluations of the store and its merchandise also mediate the perceived crowding?patronage intention relationship. Survey results of actual shoppers (n?=?201) in a hypermarket in India demonstrate that there exists an optimal level of crowding that maximises consumers' store patronage intentions. The effect of perceived crowding on patronage intention is mediated by the emotional dimension of pleasure and store evaluation. Further, the effect of perceived crowding on emotions and evaluations appears to be moderated by consumers' optimal stimulation level. In particular, the inverted U-shaped relationship of perceived crowding with pleasure and merchandise evaluation is increasingly manifested with increases in optimal stimulation level. The results also reveal that the effect of pleasure on patronage intention is stronger for individuals who score high on hedonic motivation than for individuals who score low on hedonic motivation. The article provides potential research and managerial implications of the findings.     

Category management and consumer choice

This paper shows the results of an exploratory analysis of the structure of a complex product category: Wine. In complex categories, a usual strategy of consumers is the partitioning of alternatives into homogeneous subsets and the sequential eliminations of subsets until a product/brand is chosen from among few homogeneous alternatives in the last subset. To identify if there is such a kind of strategy and the product attributes involved is of great interest for the retailer. After a discussion of the different modelling alternatives of the choice process, the authors provide an application of the additive trees (ADDTREE) model to explore the hierarchical structure. The ADDTREE results provide a first overview of the competitive market structure of the wine category: competition becomes more intense as the wine category is partitioned by, first, the type of wine criteria and, second, the designation of origin (DO) criteria.     

中国零售业结构性调整分析——2014年中国零售业关店报告

近几年,随着我国经济、消费高速增长时代的结束,受品牌快速扩张、运营成本快速增长、供需矛盾加剧、市场形势变化以及电子商务快速发展等多方面因素影响,零售企业关店现象频繁出现。零售企业关店是我国零售业结构调整与发展方式转变的一种重要表现,对此要辩证地看待。短期看,关店会导致销售额下降,影响零售企业业绩;但长期看,有利于企业调整战略,提高整体利润率与行业集中度,降低外资零售企业影响力。未来零售业销售渠道将进一步向三四线城市拓展下沉,兼并整合将成为零售业自然规律并促使多业态零售商崛起,价格低廉将不再是网络销售的优势,网络销售必须依靠便捷省时、货品丰富齐全来吸引消费者,实体店将逐步演变为全体验性业态,以更好地适应消费者全体验性消费的需求。在我国零售业调结构转方式的大背景下,零售企业必须适应市场需求,努力提高单店效益,以更好地实现调结构转方式的目标;必须转变商业运作模式,改变营销思路,打造新的营销模式,开展多渠道营销;必须适应市场形势,线上线下相互配合,及时调整发展战略。     

Logit模型在市场营销定量研究中的应用——消费者对家电品牌选择的实证分析

市场营销的定量研究以及如何开启消费者的行为黑箱,一直以来都是国外市场营销研究者们长期并将继续深入探讨的核心主题。在此过程当中,Logit模型是他们比较青睐和广泛采用的一类研究工具。通过对Logit模型的原理的介绍,以及将这一模型用于国内消费者对某一家电品牌选择的实证研究,从而表明Logit模型能够用于分析市场营销研究中的诸多问题,并且能够揭示出更多有用的量化信息,而这对于市场营销的学术研究和市场营销管理的实践都无疑是大有裨益的。     

Consumer perceptions of higher and lower-level designed store environments

The role and influence of esthetics in the consumption of store environments remains poorly understood. Little is known about how esthetics propose substantial or adjunctive roles in consumers’ store experiences. The aim of this paper is to examine consumer perceptions of store design-architecture in high and low-level design contexts. Building on the esthetics, and environmental psychology literatures, our findings confirm consumers’ determinations of perceptual differences in the esthetic content contained in presented store environmental stimuli. Latent means comparisons confirm consumers’ perceptions of the presence of a high-level design in one fast-fashion store with a low-level design of a second store of the same retailer using a Confirmatory Factor Analysis. The results demonstrate the reliability and validity of the proposed constructs in confirming the presence of higher and low-levels of design. This research, thus, expands on the extant number of store specification and response constructs and prospectively opens up new lines of store environments research.