协调改善、知识增进与经济持续增长

本探讨了经济持续增长的一般原理．构建了协调改善、知识增进的增长效应模型，并通过计量模拟的方式进行了比较静态分析。生产要素之间的互补效应是经济持续增长的动力源泉，而要素之间的互补效应则来源于因协调改善而导致的广义知识的增进。由于各个经济增长要素“协同”地作用于经济增长，经济增长路径可能是不确定和复杂的。     

关于经济收敛的一个新寓言——引入闲暇后增长性质的改变

新古典增长理论与内生增长理论的主要争论之一在于经济是否会收敛,后者通过将技术进步率内生进而证明经济可以持续增长。本文认为,随着社会经济的发展,经济增长的性质不但和生产及技术有关,而且会越来越受到闲暇选择的影响。当经济进入高收入阶段向稳态逼近时,闲暇的互补效应和正边际效应引致个体选择更多的闲暇,这会使闲暇的替代效应最终抵消并超过闲暇的互补效应,导致经济收敛。     

能源经济效率、能源环境绩效与区域经济增长关系研究

为解决当前可持续发展中日益凸显的能源供应、经济增长和环境保护协调发展问题,文章在详细分析"环境-能源-经济"理论模型、能源环境与经济增长三者之间复杂关系的基础上,采用全要素能源效率计算方法、面板数据处理方法,计算2006—2016年我国不同区域的全要素能源经济效率,比较分析能源经济效率与区域经济增长之间的协调关系,最后得出:我国总体来说能源和环境经济效率正在逐年增长,但地区差距依然非常明显,东部地区的表现最为理想,中部地区较为满意,而西部地区仍需投入巨大精力改善。     

中国的经济增长能否持续?-一个生产率视角

中国经济转型的渐进式方法产生了持续的高增长。然而,近年来中国的经济学家们越来越认为这种增长是"粗放式"的,主要是靠增加投入获得的。我们对中国改革时期的经济进行研究,发现改革的措施往往导致对全要素生产率(TFP)的一次性的水平效应。中国现在需要调整其改革方案以促进生产率的持续增长。市场与所有制的改革,以及开放政策,改善了中国企业的经营环境,但加强建设发展完善的市场经济,还需要更为深入的制度改革。     

中国经济增长源泉与机理的理论综述

中国经济高速持续增长引起了国内外众多学者的持续关注。以历史的数据经验和实现机理为基础,从各个角度来研究中国经济增长的源泉和发生机理。梳理众多学者的研究成果后表明,以下三个方面因素的改善对改革开放以来中国经济持续增长产生了积极而重要的影响。一是经济及生产要素的充分供给和要素配置的市场化程度不断增强;二是产权、金融及经济结构等重要市场基础制度的进一步改革、完善和落实;三是技术进步以及持续不断的学习。新的经济增长点的出现有赖于以上诸因素自身素质的提升和相互协调。     

组织间的非契约机制与网络组织运行效率研究述评

21世纪组织发展的关键要素是知识、信息、网络与创新。很多企业通过长期合作关系结成联盟,从而形成企业间网络。这种网络组织既不像市场那样依靠契约进行交易,也不像科层组织那样通过权威关系来协调行动,而是通过长期合作结成利益共享、力量互补的结构,网络组织是介于市场与科层组织之间一种重要的组织结构形式。网络组织是以企业网络化带来的巨大协作效应而备受关注的。网络组织具有能力互补、降低交易费用、扩大知识信息交流等优势。可以预计,随着知识产业在社会经济中所起的作用越来越大,越来越多的企业会加入到网络集团中来,未来的市场竞争不再局限于企业之间,更多地表现为网络与网络之间的竞争。     

中国分割的经济空间:基于区域间经济增长溢出的实证研究

本文从新经济地理学视角阐述了经济空间的E-关联和K-关联,使用1979-2011年全国29个省份的面板数据对中国区域间的增长溢出效应和区域经济运行空间特征进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:中国形成了东部地区"外向型"和内陆地区"内向型"两种不同类型的经济运行格局;东部地区经济增长对内陆地区没有形成溢出效应,相反内陆地区经济增长对东部地区具有显著的溢出效应;内陆地区相互之间具有较强的经济关联,中部地区和东北地区表现出"互补型"区域关系,而西部地区与中部地区和东北地区表现出"竞争型"区域关系。由于我国经济空间是分割的空间,因此区域协调发展的核心是要形成全国"统一"的经济空间和内陆"互补型"经济空间。     

全要素生产率增长中的技术效应与结构效应——基于中国宏观和产业数据的测算及分解

宏观全要素生产率增长可分解为代表普遍技术进步的技术效应和要素流动配置的结构效应。本文利用中国宏观及产业数据,在增长核算基础上将TFP增长分解为技术效应和结构效应,据以对改革开放以来不同阶段中国经济增长的来源进行细致剖析。实证结果表明:(1)得益于后发优势,1978—2014年间中国经济增长整体质量较高,增长动力约1/3来自技术水平的普遍提升,而结构效应的作用仅为技术效应的1/5。(2)2005年以后,中外技术差距的缩小导致后发优势逐步衰减,技术进步对经济增长的支撑作用迅速下降;而结构效应对经济增长的贡献度不断提高,并维持了较高的TFP增长率;该趋势在二、三产业尤为突出,这也是工业化和城市化推进的结果。(3)金融危机后,产能过剩的钢铁、水泥所属领域和"金融与保险"、"房地产"等细分行业技术停滞或倒退却积累了更大比重的要素,存在要素资源配置"逆技术进步倾向";要素驱动特征不断强化,至2014年才出现扭转迹象。宏观和产业TFP增长是未来保持中国经济中高速增长、提高经济增长质量的重要支撑。短期内应着力优化产业结构,将要素资源引导到技术和效率水平更高的细分行业,借助结构效应实现TFP增长;中长期则要实施好创新驱动发展战略,切实推动各行业技术进步。     

基于金融发展质量的金融与区域经济增长研究

金融增长表现为金融资产规模与金融机构数量的扩张,而金融发展涉及的是金融质量的提高,因此,金融发展的质量便成为促进区域经济增长的核心要素。已有的金融和经济增长文献研究大多集中在金融体系的规模,很少涉及用来解释经济增长差异的金融中介质量调节。本文运用我国中部、东部、西部部分地区经济和金融中介发展的数据,分析金融发展与区域经济增长之间的关系,通过具体银行效率评价,提出了对经济增长存在巨大影响的金融中介调节质量的方法。本文的分析表明金融发展质量调节的改善促进了要素生产率的提高,降低了金融代理的成本,增进金融产品和服务成本的能力。     

企业知识管理的研究

在知识经济时代 ,传统的经济增长方式已经得到修正 ,经济增长要素除了劳动力和资本外 ,还有知识。仅有资本的不断投放和劳动的持续增长 ,经济未必保持增长。而知识资本已成为创造收益的实际动力。知识与投资之间存在一种良性循环关系 ,知识可以提高投资回报率 ,投资也能使知识更有价值 ,这一良性循环将长期稳定地提高经济增长率。知识生产力已经成为竞争和经济发展的关键 ,企业知识管理变得日益重要。一、知识管理的涵义美国德尔福集团的弗拉保罗说 :知识管理就是运用集体的智慧提高组织应变和创新能力 ,以促进知识生产和流动 ,使知识在使用…     

Are complementary reforms a “luxury” for developing countries?

This paper investigates the impact of complementarity reforms on growth and how it depends on GDP per capita. Based on reform data for six policy areas compiled from various sources during the period 1994–2006 for over 100 countries, we compute composite indicators of reform level and complementarity. We provide qualitative justification for the existence of pair-wise complementarities among policy areas. We then use cross-section and panel data estimates to test the effect of reform level and complementarity on GDP per capita growth. We found reforms to be positively related and their dispersion (or the inverse of complementarity) negatively related to growth, controlling for initial conditions, monetary stability and other structural and institutional variables, as well as endogeneity of reform level and complementarity. We show that the effect of policy complementarity is a stronger condition for sustainable growth in developing than in advanced countries, to conclude that complementary reforms are not a ‘luxury’ for developing countries.     

Financial systems and economic growth in South Africa: a dynamic complementarity test

This study examines the relationship between banks, stock markets and economic growth in South Africa. The study attempts to answer one critical question: are stock markets and banks complementary to one another in the process of enhancing economic growth? The complementarity between the stock markets and banks is examined by including a set of interactive terms in a standard growth model, alongside bank development and stock market development proxies. In order to test the robustness of the results, three proxies of stock market development have been used, namely stock market capitalization, stock market traded value and stock market turnover – against the ratio of bank credit to the private sector, a proxy for bank-based financial development. The economic growth is, however, proxied by real GDP per capita. Using the ARDL-Bounds testing procedure, the study finds that the complementarity between stock market development and bank-based financial development is weak and sensitive to the proxy used to measure stock market development.     

On the interaction between public and private capital in economic growth

This paper introduces two forms of interaction between private and public capital in an endogenous growth model in which productive government expenditure takes the form of a stock-variable and public capital is used in part as an input in the production of final output and in part to increase its own supply. While the first form of interaction involves the stocks of the two capital-goods and takes place within the final output sector through the specification of the aggregate production function (Cobb?CDouglas vs. CES), the second one concerns the rates of investment in the two kinds of capital. The share of productive public expenditure devoted to output production can be either exogenous or endogenous. Our results suggest that when this share is exogenous, along the balanced growth path the optimal growth rate of the economy is a positive function of the degree of complementarity between the two forms of investment. When the share of productive public expenditure devoted to output production is endogenous, the public capital share in GDP becomes, along with the model??s preference parameters, an important determinant of the economy??s long run growth. We also find that the optimal growth rate is an increasing function of the elasticity of substitution between public and private capital inputs in goods production, and is independent of the complementarity/substitutability between the two forms of investment.     

Stochastic growth when utility depends on both consumption and the stock level

Summary This paper examines the dynamic behavior of optimal consumption and investment policies in the aggregate stochastic growth model when utility depends on both consumption and the stock level. Such models arise in the study of renewable resources, monetary growth, and growth with public capital. The paper shows that there is a global convergence of optimal policies to a unique stationary distribution if (a) there is sufficient complementarity in the model, or (b) if there is sufficient randomness in production. Two examples illustrate the possibility of multiple stationary distributions. In one, multiple stochastic steady states exist for a generic class of production and utility functions.We thank Professors Jess Benhabib and R. Robert Russell for helpful discussions and 2 referees for constructive suggestions.     

Unveiling covariate inclusion structures in economic growth regressions using latent class analysis

We propose the use of Latent Class Analysis methods to analyze the covariate inclusion patterns across specifications resulting from Bayesian model averaging exercises. Using Dirichlet Process clustering, we are able to identify and describe dependency structures among variables in terms of inclusion in the specifications that compose the model space. We apply the method to two datasets of potential determinants of economic growth. Clustering the posterior covariate inclusion structure of the model space formed by linear regression models reveals interesting patterns of complementarity and substitutability across economic growth determinants.     

环境动态性与竞争性对双元创新协同性的影响：资源拼凑的中介作用与组织情绪能力的调节作用

基于资源基础理论、二元组织理论和情绪社会建构理论，构建环境动态性、环境竞争性、资源拼凑、组织情绪能力与双元创新协同性之间关系的理论模型，并利用299家样本企业对模型进行实证检验。结果表明，环境动态性与双元创新平衡性、互补性、协同性正相关；环境竞争性与双元创新平衡性、互补性、协同性正相关；资源拼凑在环境动态性与双元创新平衡性、互补性、协同性之间起完全或部分中介作用，在环境竞争性与双元创新平衡性、互补性、协同性之间起部分中介作用；组织情绪能力负向调节资源拼凑与双元创新平衡性、协同性之间的关系。     

Taxation of externalities: Direct versus Indirect

First, a model with separable utilities in the externalities is presented to analyze the impact of direct and indirect taxes on the correction of externalities that are caused by the consumption of one good. It is shown that the sign of the indirect tax is based not on the complementarity (or lack thereof) between the two taxed goods, but on the link between complementarity of the two goods for each consumer and the size of the marginal impact on his consumption on the externality. Second, a model of externality aggregate is further developed along the previous lines and alternative definitions of complementarity are considered.     

Endogenous growth cycles—Arrow's learning by doing reconsidered

A two-sector growth model is presented in which human capital is acquired through learning by doing. It is shown that, for both the competitive situation and the social optimum, endogenous growth cycles may be the outcome. Concerning the economic prerequisite for persistent oscillations we detect a bunching of investment at nearby dates leading economic variables to overshoot the long-run steady state values. This clustering of investment, for its part, may be caused by adjacent complementarity with respect to the stocks or by a sufficiently strong external effect of investment on the marginal product of physical capital or on the opportunity costs of investment.     

Foreign Capital in a Growth Model

Within the mechanism of endogenous growth, this paper empirically investigates the impact of financial capital on economic growth for a panel of 60 developing countries, through the channel of domestic capital formation. By estimating the model for different income groups, it is found that while private FDI flows exert beneficial complementarity effects on the domestic capital formation across all income‐group countries, the official financial flows contribute to increasing investment in the middle income economies, but not in the low income countries. The latter appears to demonstrate that the aid‐growth nexus is supported in the middle income countries, whereas the misallocation of official inflows is more likely to exist in the low income countries, suggesting that aid effectiveness remains conditional on the domestic policy environment.     

Brain drain and factor complementarity

In this paper we develop an extended Solow growth model with emigration which aggregates different types of labor skills from strict complementarity to perfect substitution. The derivation of balanced growth paths shows that the most relevant cases for studying the impact of emigration are those where these paths can only be attained asymptotically. This requires and justifies the need for using transitional dynamics. We therefore derive a complete characterization of the transitional dynamics of output and wages in the sending country for all possible values taken by the elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled workers. The model then serves to qualitatively study the effect of brain drain on per capita income and wages of the sending country.