The Evolving Accidental Information Super-Highway

The technology of the Internet is not static. Although its ‘end-to-end’architecture has made this ‘connection-less’ communicationssystem readily ‘extensible’, and highly encouragingto innovation both in hardware and software applications, thereare strong pressures for engineering changes. Some of theseare wanted to support novel transport services (e.g. voice telephony,real-time video); others would address drawbacks that appearedwith the opening of the Internet to public and commercial traffic—e.g.the difficulties of blocking delivery of offensive content,suppressing malicious actions (e.g. ‘denial of service’attacks), pricing bandwidth usage to reduce congestion. Theexpected gains from making improvements in the core of the networkshould be weighed against the loss of the social and economicbenefits that derive from the end-to-end architectural design.Even where technological ‘fixes’ can be placed atthe networks' edges, the option remains to search for alternative,institutional mechanisms of governing conduct in cyberspace.     

The Social Cost of Carbon and its Policy Implications

The shadow price, or ‘social cost’, of carbon isan important indicator of the global incremental damage doneby emitting greenhouse gases today. Cost–benefit analysiswould set the optimal amount of greenhouse-gas-emission reductionat the point where this social cost just equals the incrementalcost of controlling emissions. The higher the value for thesocial cost of carbon, the more control is warranted. This comparisonassumes that cost–benefit analysis is the correct wayof determining climate-change policy, and many believe thisis not the case because of the very long-term, irreversible,and potentially catastrophic nature of global warming. But,in the short run at least, a comparison of cost and benefitsis required, and, in any event, all decisions imply costs andbenefits. But what is the ‘right’ figure for thesocial cost of carbon? This paper reviews the UK government'sassessment of the cost and concludes that it has been set fartoo high because of a misreading of the integrated assessmentmodels used to balance costs and benefits. Moreover, adoptionof the UK government's shadow price would have formidable implicationsfor energy policy in the UK, and for policies on afforestation.     

Assessing causal economic explanations

Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in causal realismin the methodology of economics. Some of this literature reflectsa strong scepticism about the existence of sharp event-regularitiesor ‘laws’ in the economic realm and, accordingly,about the prospects for the covering-law approach to explanationthat dominates modern economic theory. This paper outlines analternative, causal, approach to economic explanation and attemptsto answer an important question often asked about it: how shouldcausal economic explanations be assessed?     

Economic Organization, Innovation Systems, and the Internet

How can public policy best promote successful innovation inthe Internet sector? This paper creates a typology of differenttypes of Internet software firms. Institutions associated withthe ‘Silicon Valley Model’ are a strong driver ofsuccess for some key Internet technologies. However, patternsof human-resource development and knowledge management varywidely across Internet technologies, necessitating the developmentof very different commitments between managers and employees.Institutional frameworks associated with ‘organized’economies, such as Germany or Japan, might provide superiortool-kits to help some types of Internet firms to innovate.Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the creation of institutionalincentives is not the only way to promote patterns of technologicallyintense innovation associated with Silicon Valley. Technologicalstrategies of dominant firms are often equally important. Regardlessof institutional environment, the development of entrepreneurialsoftware firms can be strongly influenced by the activitiesof large firms working within core network telecommunicationtechnologies.     

Product quality, lender liability, and consumer credit

Under ‘linked credit’ (also known as ‘connectedlending’), the buyer obtains a loan from a lender withthe specific purpose of purchasing a certain product. Creditis arranged directly by the seller, who acts as an intermediaryfor the finance company. Within this form of financing, thelender often accepts a measure of liability for defective products.We show that ‘connected-lender liability’ can workas a signalling device for the reliability of sellers, so asto alleviate the market failure that arises when sellers arebetter informed than consumers about the quality of their products.     

Green and Brown? Globalization and the Environment

Globalization—viewed as a process of economic integrationthat embraces governance as well as markets—could leadto worldwide convergence toward higher or lower environmentalquality, or to environmental polarization in which the ‘greening’of the global North is accompanied by the ‘browning’of the global South. The outcome will not be dictated by aninexorable logic. Rather it will depend on how the opportunitiescreated by globalization alter balances of power within countriesand among them.     

Building Programme Evaluation into the Design of Public Research-Support Programmes

There is wide agreement that the high social rate of returnto research and innovation justifies government support forresearch. There is, however, only limited evidence on the effectivenessof different public research programmes. Reliable measurementof programme effectiveness is hampered by the ‘selectivity’problem (public funding goes to proposals judged in advanceto be likely to succeed) and the question of ‘additivity’(whether public funding increases total spending on researchor merely displaces funding from other sources). The selectivityproblem can be mitigated by building evaluation into programmedesign, either by partial randomization of the grant process,or by recording the rankings used in grant evaluation and makingthis information available to researchers. The additivity questionreflects the more fundamental problem that the ultimate objectiveof these programmes is to have long-term effects that are inherentlyvery difficult to measure and attribute to particular programmes.     

The Assessment: EMU, Four Years On

This paper reviews the functioning of the Economic and MonetaryUnion over the first 4 years of its existence. Monetary policyis viewed as having been of the ‘inflation-targeting’type, but with a tendency towards delay and conservatism inadjustment, which may also reflect over-optimistic output growthforecasts. The resulting pressure on the Stability and GrowthPact (SGP) illustrates the weakness in the ‘consensusview’ of the harmonious interaction of monetary, fiscal,and supply-side policies, which requires policy in all threeareas to be ‘correct’. In discussing reform of theSGP, a looser but still constraining form of fiscal agreementis advocated. The supply-side and balance-of-payments issuesinvolved in inter-country adjustment also interact importantlywith the SGP and are identified as key areas of difficulty ina still ‘immature’ monetary union, with separatelabour-market structures. Here the mechanisms for coordinationare more or less absent.     

THE EMPIRICAL FAILURE OF THE LIFE CYCLE MODEL WITH PERFECT CAPITAL MARKETS

The paper calibrates a life cycle model which incorporates standardassumptions, similar to those in Modighani's (1986) ‘strippeddown’ version, including perfect capital markets. Theresulting model generates strongly counter-factual predictions,planned wealth is negative for all or most of life, followinga W-shaped rather than a hump-shaped profile. (Equivalently,the debt profile is M-shaped.) The paper argues that introducingcapital market imperfections can resolve many of the problems,though some issues remain, and further research is warranted ‘The hypothesis of utility maximisation (and perfect markets)has, all by itself, one very powerful implication—theresources that a representative consumer allocates to consumptionat any age, t, will depend only on his life resources (the presentvalue of labour income plus bequests received, if any) whencombined with the self-evident proposition that the representativeconsumer will choose to consume at a reasonably stable rate,close to his anticipated average life consumption the size ofsaving over short periods of time, like a year, will be swayedby the extent to which current income departs from average liferesources the main parameter that controls the wealth-incomeratio and the saving rate for given growth is the prevailinglength of retirement’ (Modigliani, 1986, pp 299 and 301)     

Tactical Coordination in Plurality Electoral Systems

Simple plurality election systems (commonly known as ‘firstpast the post’) are often associated with the dominanceof two political parties. Such systems tend to reward leadingparties with a disproportionately large number of seats (the‘mechanical’ effect) and provoke tactical voting,where voters switch away from trailing parties (the ‘psychological’effect). We view tactical voting as a coordination problem.A group of voters wish to prevent a win by a disliked party(such as the Conservatives in recent UK elections) and mustpartially coordinate behind a single challenger (such as Labouror the Liberal Democrats) in order to do this. Crucially, votershave limited information on the situation within their constituencyand hence there is no common knowledge of the game being played—tacticalvoting is a global game. We show that in this setting, voterswill only partially coordinate. Furthermore, tactical votingexhibits negative feedback—tactical voting by others reducesthe incentive for an individual to vote tactically, since theybecome concerned that they may switch in the wrong direction.We calibrate our model, and apply it to the UK General Electionof 1997. Throughout England, we find that the ‘mechanical’and ‘psychological’ effects tend to offset eachother: tactical voting serves to reverse the Conservative biasthat results from the geographic distribution of preferences.     

UK Transport Policy 1997-2001

The 1997 government announced policies and changes in administration,but the statistics show that little else was achieved. Road-trafficgrowth was temporarily tamed by an increase in the price offuel, which integrated policies on transport, environment, andland-use. This was not sustained, so there will be more congestion,and more road capacity must be provided. A coherent policy oncharges was absent, though congestion charging will help ifeventually implemented. Little freight was transferred to rail.Neither ‘integration’ nor ‘social inclusion’was improved. London became less integrated and policy on theUnderground was a failure. Administration of the railways remainsconfused. There are doubts about the technical, managerial,and financial feasibility of the expansion envisaged. The buswas given inadequate attention. The Treasury dominates throughthe public-spending control process, which fetters local authoritiesand impedes infrastructure investment. Proven borrowing mechanismsoffer alternatives for locally accountable capital financing.     

Open-Source Software Development and Distributed Innovation

Open-source software development is a production model thatexploits the distributed intelligence of participants in Internetcommunities. This model is efficient because of two relatedreasons: it avoids the inefficiencies of a strong intellectualproperty regime and it implements concurrently design and testingof software modules. The hazard of open source is that projectscan ‘fork’ into competing versions. However, open-sourcecommunities consist of governance structures that constitutionallyminimize this danger. Because open source works in a distributedenvironment, it presents an opportunity for developing countriesto participate in frontier innovation.     

MULTI-PRODUCT COST ATTRIBUTES: A STUDY OF U.K. BUILDING SOCIETIES

A translog multi-product cost function is estimated jointlywith a derived input cost share equation to obtain estimatesof overall economies of scale and ‘augmented’ overalleconomies of scale for the United Kingdom building society industry.The ‘augmented’ measure takes into account inducedchanges in the number of building society branch offices asthe outputs vary. The parameter estimates are then used to computethe derivatives of the marginal costs of each product to testfor product-specific economies of scale and economies of scope.     

An ideal Kyoto protocol: emissions trading, redistributive transfers and global participation

We demonstrate that an interregional policy scheme featuringtrading of carbon dioxide emissions, redistributive resourcetransfers and global participation, a scheme which we call ‘IdealKyoto Protocol’, yields an efficient equilibrium allocationfor a global economy. An altruistic international agency—say,the Global Environment Facility—should operate the resourcetransfer mechanism. In addition, regional governments shouldbe able to make independent policy commitments regarding howto control regional emissions of carbon dioxide in anticipationof the redistributive transfers. Our efficiency result suggeststhat the USA should be ‘bribed’ to reverse its decisionof not participating in the Kyoto Protocol.     

An enduring need: multilateralism in the twenty-first century

That the global economy has been hugely successful over thepast 50 years is unquestionable. A major underpinning of thatsuccess has been the open multilateral system, which has enabledthe emergence of a truly international financial system, reciprocalreduction of trade barriers, and the emergence of many previouslypoor countries into the status of ‘emerging markets’or even ‘developed’. The open multilateral system,however, is increasingly under-appreciated and taken for granted.Preferential trading arrangements have proliferated, and withthem the possibility of discriminatory arrangements for capitalflows. The absence of an international regime for capital flowspermits this development and poses a threat to the system, asdo all of the issues on which countries' governments assert‘their’ interests, and ignore their interests inthe overall health of the system. It is to be hoped that thebenefits of multilateralism are more greatly appreciated, andthat the current trend toward increasing regionalism and departuresfrom the post-war system is reversed.     

Economic integration, wage policies, and social policies

This paper sets up a two country monopolistic competition modelwith intra-industry trade to study the effects of an exogenousdifferential in wage and social policies on the location ofindustry. Two model scenarios are considered. In the traditionalone with physical capital, such a differential induces a relocationeffect which increases with the level of trade integration.The ‘new economic geography’ world assumes mobileentrepreneurs which can relocate thus bringing agglomerationforces into play. The most significant difference between thisworld and the traditional one is that, at high levels of tradeintegration, where one country has emerged as the core and theother as the periphery, the core may have more generous socialpolicies and higher wages than the periphery without inducinga relocation of firms. The scope to have higher wage is constrained,however, and related to the level of trade integration in abell-shaped way.     

Redesigning Regulation of Pensions and Other Financial Products

We observe that financial regulation is ever-growing, with thelatest area to experience increased supervisory attention beingpensions. Yet this has not made the financial world or consumerssafer, and for pensions in particular there are unexpected andundesired consequences. We explore the current policy approachto supervision, which is ‘bottom up’, i.e. assessmentand regulation of individual institutions, with the aim ofmakingthe financial system safe by making each institution safe. Weshow that this is both damaging (because it stifles innovation)and does not work (because risk will always be squeezed fromthe regulated institutions to the less regulated and less seen).Instead, we advocate a ‘top-down’ approach, whichfocuses on making the system safe first. We conclude that onceyou have made systems safe, detailed supervision of individualinstitutions is less necessary, thus reducing the burden ofsupervision. We believe that this approach will lead to a moresuitable and diverse treatment of different risks that willincrease both systemic and consumer safety. ‘If you haveten thousand regulations you destroy all respect for the law’,Winston Churchill (1931). ‘The ultimate result of shieldingmen from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools’,Herbert Spencer (1891). Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: n.barr{at}lse.ac.uk; john_nugee{at}ssga.com     

Trade adjustment in the WTO system: are more safeguards the answer?

For countries to engage successfully in the international tradingsystem, their industries, firms, and workers must respond continuallyto new conditions of competition. The continuing need to adjustarises both from policy changes approved in multilateral negotiations—e.g.implementation of trade liberalization commitments, preferenceerosion, or adverse terms-of-trade consequences of export subsidyelimination—and from ongoing changes in competitive pressuresinherent in a liberal trading system—e.g. effects on comparativeadvantage of changes in technology or factor supplies. But thepolitical response to a situation calling for adjustment isoften a call for ‘safeguards’—whether as anex ante provision in negotiated agreements or as an ex postmeasure once the agreement has been signed and the reality ofnew conditions takes shape. This paper examines the range ofadjustment problems confronting the current and future internationaltrading system, the economic arguments for intervention to dealwith these problems, the adjustment environment as set out inthe current World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreements, and proposalsfor reform. While the adjustment problems we discuss apply toboth rich and poor WTO member countries, we highlight the issuesof adjustment especially relevant for developing countries.     

The Assessment: The New Economy

The remarkable economic success of the United States in the1990s led many observers to talk about a ‘New Economy’.This paper provides an overview of the main issues, includingfaster productivity growth, the stability of inflation despitevery low unemployment, the reduction in output volatility, therole of monetary policy, and the boom in the stock market. Thepaper also considers whether or not the acceleration in productivitygrowth can be sustained, and the possible implications for therest of the world.     

Assessing inflation targeting through intervention analysis

The aim of this paper is to deal with the empirical aspectsof the ‘new’ monetary policy framework, known asInflation Targeting. Applying Intervention Analysis to multivariateStructural Time Series models, which avoids certain biases encounteredin the use of conventional regression estimators, new empiricalevidence is produced in the case of a number of OECD countries.These results demonstrate that although Inflation Targetinghas gone hand-in-hand with low inflation, the strategy was introducedwell after inflation had begun its downward trend. But, then,Inflation Targeting ‘locks in’ low inflation rates.The evidence produced in this paper suggests that non-InflationTargeting central banks have also been successful on this score.