一个"农业大国"的反贫困之战——中国农村扶贫政策分析

中国作为一个农业人口占多数的发展中大国,农村贫困人口的快速下降为世界范围内的贫困人口的降低做出了重要贡献,然而,这并不能简单的归结为中国农村扶贫政策取得成功。我们综合分析了中国政府农村扶贫政策的得与失,并总结认为:中国农村贫困的减少更多的来自于持续快速的经济增长。虽然经历了三十年的改革开放,中国的农村贫困人口已经大大减少,但是,这并不表明剩余的几千万贫困人口会逐步自动的消失,对于这些剩余的贫困人口,政府还要采取综合措施并以提高贫困家庭参与市场的程度为目标,从而使他们能够更快的融入到经济增长的轨道中去,而不能让他们被排除在市场化和城市化的边缘。     

财政分权与经济增长

理解财政分权在经济增长过程中所起的作用颇为重要。本文采用1953～2003年的时间序列数据,以地方政府财政支出占全部财政支出的比重作为度量财政分权的指标,用实证研究的办法考察财政分权对于中国经济增长的影响。与已有的一些研究结果不同的是,本文的回归结果显示,对经济增长具有显著影响的并不是财政分权的绝对水平,而是财政分权程度的变动。本文依据这一结果分析了财政分权与经济增长的关系。     

The equipment hypothesis and US economic growth

In several articles published in the 1990s, de Long and Summers argued that investment in producer durables had a high propensity to generate externalities in using industries, resulting in a systematic and substantial divergence between its social and private return. They maintained, moreover, that this was not the case for structures investment. Together, these claims constitute the equipment hypothesis. This paper explores the degree to which the history of US economic growth in the 20th century supports it.     

经济增长与收入分布对新疆城市居民贫困变动的影响

本文采用相对贫困线方法研究新疆城市居民2000年与2003年的贫困变化程度,利用FGT(Foster-Greer-Thorbecke)贫困指数分析了新疆城市居民的贫困率、贫困差距、贫困深度的变化,通过贫困指数FGT变化的分解分析,说明经济增长提高可支配收入有助于减少贫困,收入分布差距的减少也是减少贫困程度的重要因素之一。     

Stock market development and economic growth in Belgium

This paper investigates the long-term relationship between financial market development and economic development in Belgium. We use a new data set of stock market development indicators to argue that financial market development substantially affected economic growth. We find strong evidence that stock market development caused economic growth in Belgium, especially in the period between 1873 and 1935. Institutional changes affecting the stock exchange explain the time-varying nature of the link between stock market development and economic growth.     

西藏脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴战略有效衔接探究

乡村振兴战略是以习近平同志为核心的党中央破解新时代不平衡不充分发展问题,在精准扶贫的基础上推进城乡融合发展,实现农业农村现代化作出的重大决策部署。2019年底,西藏74个县(区)均已实现脱贫摘帽,脱贫攻坚取得重大胜利。当前,西藏正处在巩固脱贫攻坚成果与推进乡村振兴战略并行的特殊时期,如何实现二者有效衔接、融合发展,并形成相互支撑、相互配合、协同推进的良性互动格局,对巩固脱贫攻坚成果,全面推进乡村振兴,实现人民共同富裕至关重要。     

Poverty and Vulnerability in Indonesia Before and After the Economic Crisis

It is well known that the economic crisis in Indonesia has caused the poverty rate to increase significantly. The present study finds, not only that the poverty rate increased significantly, but also that much of the increase was due to a large increase in the chronic poor category (i.e. the poor who have expected consumption below the poverty line and most likely will stay poor in the near future). Furthermore, the present study also finds that the proportion of households that have high vulnerability to poverty has more than doubled since the economic crisis. As a result, the proportion of the total vulnerable group (the current poor plus the high vulnerability group) has jumped from less than one-fifth of the population before the crisis to more than one-third after the crisis.     

China's War on Poverty: Assessing Targeting and the Growth Impacts of Poverty Programs

In this paper, we attempt to assess the effectiveness of China's Poverty Alleviation Programs in contributing to economic growth in poor areas. To meet this overall goal, we briefly describe China's poor area policy and examine how its leaders have implemented one of the developing world's largest poverty alleviation programs. Second, we examine whether or not the poverty programs have been implemented in the parts of China that are truly poor. Finally, we attempt to assess if the poverty programs have affected growth. The major findings are that China's poverty programs do get implemented in areas of the nation that are poor, but there are many poor areas that have been left out of the government's various programs. We also find that poverty programs contribute to economic growth and that economic growth promotes poverty reduction.     

Editorial: Trade,growth and economic inequality in the Asia-Pacific region

This editorial provides a brief summary of the results of our research project entitled “Trade, Growth and Economic Inequality in the Asia-Pacific Region”, which explores and documents the linkages between international trade and inequality in the Asia-Pacific Region. The project’s eleven research papers find some evidence that trade or FDI contribute to inequality, some evidence that it reduces inequality and some evidence of no causal relationship. These seemingly conflicting results are not at all surprising given the complex relationships involved and the different countries, time periods, and means of measuring inequality, trade and FDI our authors adopted.     

基于经济增长的新疆减贫效果趋势分析

经济增长和减贫一直是发展中国家和地区制定发展战略所考虑的重点。改革开放初期,新疆通过经济增长极大地降低了农村贫困,经济增长的减贫效果显著;20世纪80年代中后期至2010年,由于经济增长的质量下降和收入不平等程度增加,减贫趋势变缓;2011年以后,随着援疆工作和民生工程的不断推进,高速的经济增长和对贫困人口有利的收入分配对减贫起到了良好的效果,经济增长出现了益贫性特征。纵观改革开放至今,新疆减贫成就的主要原因是经济持续的高速增长、人力资本的明显改善和政府采取的反贫困行动;而其减贫趋势放缓的原因是农村经济增长质量的下降和农村收入分配的不断恶化。为此,本文认为新时期扶贫工作中,新疆应实施益贫式增长战略。从生产领域着手,在增加就业的同时通过增加穷人的资产基础以提高穷人的自我发展能力,而政府在打造民生工程时应注重市场机制,以保持减贫的可持续性。     

首都经济圈的贫困带成因与消除贫困的建议

文章通过对首都经济圈贫困带的区位、历史变迁、体制三方面贫困成因分析,提出立足长远制定和实施扶贫政策、借“首都经济圈一体化”之力解决“环首都贫困”、建立健全生态补偿机制的建议。     

Evolution of Poverty During the Crisis in Indonesia

The economic crisis caused a clear deterioration in the welfare of the Indonesian people. In this paper, we examine the appropriate method to compare the change in poverty rates over time. We then piece together a consistent series of estimates of poverty rates during the crisis from various sources, covering a period from February 1996 to February 2002. The reconciliation of these various estimates paints a very reasonable picture and neatly tracks events. The poverty rate increased from the lowest point of approximately 15% at the onset of the crisis in the middle of 1997 to the highest point of approximately 33% nearing the end of 1998. This maximum increase in poverty rate during the crisis of 18 percentage points implies that approximately 36 million additional people were pushed into absolute poverty due to the crisis. After the peak point, the poverty rate started to decline again and reached the pre-crisis level of approximately 15% at the end of 1999, implying that the lost time in poverty reduction due to the crisis was approximately 2.5years. However, the poverty rate after this point appears to have fluctuated. During 2001 and early 2002, poverty was on the rise again.     

Dynamic estimation of the relationship between trade openness and output growth in Asia

This paper studies the relationship between trade openness and output growth for a sample of twenty-three Asian countries using both a static OLS and a dynamic ECM estimation models. At the country specific level, the findings of this study provide robust empirical evidence indicating that higher revealed trade openness is not the main engine explaining the Asian economic-growth miracle. In particular, the authors find that physical capital accumulation is at the core of the observed long-run output per worker growth. At the regional level, the authors observe a marked difference between the pre and post 1997–1998 financial crisis, whereas, in the post period, trade openness has a positive and significant effect on output growth. In general, the results from the dynamic estimations prove that the conventional OLS static estimates underestimate the effect of investment on output growth. In addition, the dynamic model allows for a separation of gains from trade between short term and long term. The paper results also provide evidence in support of the idea that, countries with a growing degree of trade openness may experience faster per-capita output growth through gains in productivity associated to capital accumulation, rather than the assumed technological spillover effects from the trading sector. Again, at the regional level in the post financial crisis period both short term and long term gains from trade are relevant to growth. Why more trade does not necessarily imply faster growth at all levels of revealed trade openness growth, remains a conundrum.     

The pressure of economic growth and the issuance of Urban Investment Bonds: Based on panel data from 2005 to 2011 in China

This paper explores the motivations behind the issuance of Urban Investment Bonds (UIBs) to stimulate local economies in China after the 2008 global financial crisis. Based on panel data from 2005 to 2011, we find that pressure to achieve economic growth has a positive effect on the issuance of UIBs, while fiscal pressure has the opposite effect on UIB issuance. We also find that the tenure of municipal party secretary, the revenue of land-use right transfer and fiscal pressure will change the impact of economic growth pressure on UIB issuance. These results are consistent with a pattern in which China's local government officials are influenced by the central government's assessment of local economic growth performance and have promotion-related incentives to maintain and develop the local economy.     

征地补偿与农村减贫

征地后农业收入及土地权益的减少会阻碍农户家庭经济水平的提高,但征地补偿的存在可以扩大农户生产经营的可选集,为持续提高农户家庭经济水平,促进农村减贫提供了必要前提。基于中国家庭收入调查中2013年的农村住户数据,文章设立了以家庭财富为基础的农户经济水平的衡量指标,并建立三元联合分布计量模型,在处理了内生性问题的基础上研究了征地和征地补偿对农户贫困的影响。研究发现,征地过程中减贫效应起主要作用,征地能够显著增加农户财富,促进农村减贫。征地的减贫效应存在异质性:征用宅基地形式下的减贫效应最为显著,征用耕地时效果则会下降;不同补偿方式下的减贫效应存在差异,资金补偿和非资金补偿组合下的征地减贫效应最强,而单独资金补偿的减贫效应最弱;征地减贫效应在东部地区、市场化水平较高的情况下及高财富农户中更加明显。处理效应结果表明资金补偿和非资金补偿的组合能够为农户带来最多的财富收益,具体为233578. 8元。最后文章还检验了征地的影响机制,发现征地补偿是征地减贫效应的重要实现途径之一,但不是唯一途径,补偿在征地的减贫效应中起部分中介作用,其效应所占比重约为59. 5%。文章结论表明政府征地不仅有助于国家现...     

Growth,Poverty, and Inequality under Jokowi

SUMMARY

The political authority of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) was bolstered in the third quarter of 2015 by a cabinet reshuffle, his coalition's gaining a parliamentary majority, and several foreign-policy developments. Indonesia's request to rejoin OPEC, for example, after having left in 2008, seemed more about international relations than oil prices, while official visits to the Middle East and the United States allowed Jokowi to project his presidency on the international stage. He still faces resistance from within his own party, however.

Jokowi's politically bold reshuffle of economic ministers in August soon yielded a range of policy announcements. In September and October, his government introduced its first substantial set of reforms—a number of economic policy packages intended, among other things, to attract investment and stimulate domestic demand. If even half of these policies are put in place, the impact on Indonesia's economy should be tangible.

Few countries have escaped the effects of falling global commodity prices and China's growth slowdown. At 4.7%, year on year, in the third quarter Indonesia's rate of economic growth again fell short of the government's target. Slowing growth and a negative outlook have lowered market expectations and weakened the rupiah, which is also burdened by the large outstanding external debt held by corporate borrowers. Indonesia's real effective exchange rate has recently begun to depreciate, however, which may stimulate exports. Growth prospects will also improve if the substantial increase in capital and infrastructure spending allocated in the state budget is realised.

Against this backdrop, we focus on what has happened to poverty and inequality in Indonesia since Jokowi took office. The distributional impacts of the current macroeconomic climate are likely to be hardest felt by the poor. Indonesia is well known for its record on poverty reduction, but between September 2014 and March 2015 the share of the population in poverty increased, even though economic growth was close to 5.0%. Slowing growth, rising food prices, the falling real wages of farmers, and the delayed disbursement of fuel-price compensation all had an effect. Such impacts may be mitigated in the medium term by Jokowi's budget reallocations to infrastructure, if realised, and his expansion of social spending.     

The determinants of FTA use in Southeast Asia: A firm-level analysis

The spread of free trade agreements (FTAs) in Southeast Asia has ignited a debate about their impact on enterprises including the business costs from the Asian ‘noodle bowl’ effect. This paper undertakes a comparative and firm-level analysis of the determinants of FTA use in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. The likelihood of firms using important ASEAN+1 FTAs (e.g. the ASEAN-China FTA, the ASEAN-Japan FTA and ASEAN-Korea FTA) is positively associated with acquiring knowledge about FTAs, building technological capabilities, and membership in industrial clusters. Non-use of FTAs is explained by a lack of information about FTAs and the absence of FTAs with major trading partners. Key policy implications are the need to improve business support for FTAs, to conclude FTAs with major trading partners, and to create a database on FTA preference use.     

The internal dynamic of Indian economic growth

A stylised fact of India's economic history since 1950 is that the rate of growth of the economy has accelerated periodically and across policy regimes. In this paper we present a theoretical framework that can generate such a pattern due to cumulative causation through positive feedback. The growth process is then investigated using cointegration analysis. We are able to establish the existence of positive feedback which is at the centre of cumulative causation. We are also able to date the onset of this mechanism which has driven growth in India for close to half a century by now. This leads us to conclude that the internal dynamics are at least as important as the policy regimes to understand growth over the long term in this country.