Fiscal consolidation with tax evasion and corruption

Cross-country evidence highlights the importance of tax evasion and corruption in determining the size of fiscal multipliers. We introduce these two features in a New Keynesian model and revisit the effects of fiscal consolidations. VAR evidence for Italy suggests that spending cuts reduce tax evasion, while tax hikes increase it. In the model, spending cuts induce a reallocation of production towards the formal sector, thus reducing tax evasion. Tax hikes increase the incentives to produce in the less productive shadow sector, implying higher output and unemployment losses. Corruption further amplifies these losses by requiring larger hikes in taxes to reduce debt. We use the model to assess the recent fiscal consolidation plans in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Our results corroborate the evidence of increasing levels of tax evasion during these consolidations and point to significant output and welfare losses, which could be reduced substantially by combating tax evasion and corruption.     

我国增值税扩围对财政体系代际平衡状况的影响

本文用代际核算方法分析我国增值税扩围对财政体系可持续性的影响。核算结果表明,如果我们把营业税的宏观税负由2009年7.93%提高到和增值税的宏观税负一致,可以大幅缓解我国财政体系目前的代际不平衡状况。分行业模拟表明,我们将交通运输、仓储和邮政业,信息传输、计算机服务和软件业,以及住宿和餐饮业纳入增值税的征税范围,对财政体系的可持续性不会有太大影响;房地产业和金融业由于较高的增值率,将其纳入增值税的征税范围会缓和我国财政体系目前的代际不平衡状况;我们要谨慎考虑建筑业纳入增值税征收范围后的抵扣项目。     

Effects of local fiscal policy on firm profitability

For decades, scholars and policy-makers have been interested in how fiscal policy influences entrepreneurship. Until now, research has focused on fiscal policy at the federal or regional level and used macro-economic outcome measures. Considerably less attention was given to how municipal governments can influence economic outcomes at the micro level. The present study examines the effect of municipal taxes, spending and tax compliance costs on firm profitability within the Flemish hospitality industry. This is an interesting research setting, since Flemish municipalities have far-ranging fiscal autonomy which has resulted in a proliferation of local taxes, many of which are specific to the hospitality industry. The findings reveal that local taxes have a negative impact on firm profitability, while aggregate public spending has a positive influence. The tax effect is economically relevant and exceeds the public spending impact. Finally, we find no impact of compliance costs from local taxes.     

Faster growth and greater fiscal responsibility are possible

The growth in spending on entitlement programs has left the United States in a fiscally untenable position. Putting the country on more stable fiscal footing requires a two-pronged approach designed to constrain the growth in spending and to spur economic growth. There are ample opportunities to reduce spending while maintaining or improving current levels of government service by implementing progressive entitlement reform reducing regulatory burdens or improving efficiency in healthcare provision through market-based reform. Achieving higher economic growth is similarly possible, but will require real tax reform geared toward unlocking capital for investment, as well as immigration reform and greater support for work for low-income Americans.     

完善我国政府间转移支付制度的若干思考

政府间转移支付制度是实行分税制财政管理体制国家普遍采用的、用于解决中央与地方之间及各地方之间财政失衡的一项重要制度和措施,我国自从1994年实行分税制财政体制改革以来,财政转移支付的度处于不断完善之中.但是,目前我国的转移支付制度仍然存在着一定的问题.本文从财政转移支付制度的基本原理入手,在借鉴OECD主要国家经验的基础上,论述了我国转移支付制度设计中必须注重的模式选择问题、需要考虑的若干关键性因素以及需要注意的相关技术问题.     

中国财政政策动态效应的实证分析:1998~2004

本文对中国1998~2004年间实行的积极性财政政策的动态效应进行了实证研究。基于对数据性质的考察,我们选用了结构性VECM模型来研究。在结构性模型中,我们引入了长期约束和短期约束来识别宏观经济变量中的冲击向量,并利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法,对冲击向量的动态效应进行实证研究。模型的实证结果表明,财政支出冲击对总产出具有正向效应而税收收入冲击则具有负向效应,且支出冲击的正效应略大于税收收入的负效应。该结论印证了凯恩斯主义关于财政政策的主要结论。同时实证结果对我国1998年以来的积极财政政策的效果给予了支持:增加财政支出的效应很大程度上被同期税收收入的增长所抵消,财政政策对产出的贡献并不像预期的那么显著。     

Liberalization of import restrictions on capital goods and the balance of payments

This paper examines the impact of capital import liberalization on the balance of payments when protection takes the form of a quota and when it takes the form of a tariff. Since tariff liberalization affects tax revenues, the analysis of tariff liberalization allows for a fiscal imbalance and a mechanism by which the fiscal imbalance is covered, namely an inflation tax. The analysis shows that the economy experiences a series of balance of payments deficits following trade liberalization, but an open capital account reduces the magnitude of these deficits.     

Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model with Productive Government Spending

The goal of this paper is to analyse the effects of fiscal policy upon the long-run balanced growth rate in an endogenous growth model in which sustained per capita growth is the result of productive government spending. Assuming that labour is supplied inelastically, it is shown that increases in non-productive government spending, i.e. public consumption or lump-sum transfers, always reduce the balanced growth rate, whereas there exists a growth-maximizing investment subsidy rate and income tax rate. Moreover, a rise in a tax on consumption increases economic growth if it raises public investment. If labour supply is elastic the elasticity of labour supply crucially determines the growth-maximizing income tax rate and an increase in the tax on consumption may raise or lower economic growth.     

中国高等教育财政投入分析

自高校扩招以来,财政支出在高等教育中的投入数额增加,其主要体现在科研经费的支出比重加大,这与中国高等教育转轨的实情是相符的。但同时,财政支出在不同学校的不同政策又导致在各高校间出现资金充裕和资金短缺的失衡格局。     

Fiscal Policy and Economic Recovery

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 is the biggest, boldest countercyclical fiscal stimulus in American history. What is its likely impact? Current econometric models indicate that a tax cut is likely to have a multiplier of about 1.0 and that spending has a multiplier of about 1.6 after about 18 months. Even the most sophisticated econometric analysis, however, suffers from “omitted variable” bias. In trying to take account of this, David Romer and I have found that the tax multiplier is more likely to be around two to three; and we suspect that the spending multiplier is correspondingly higher than the conventional estimates. Of course, every recession is different. The unique factors of this recession are analyzed to determine whether the multipliers are likely to deviate from historical averages.     

Möglichkeiten zur Kompensation der kalten Progression: Wirkung in Österreich

Regardless of the latest tax reform the fiscal drag brings an additional tax burden of € 6.2 billion for the period 2016-2021 to Austrian taxpayers. In 2021 alone this fiscal drag will levy an additional € 2.17 billion. The study in hand gives an overview how other countries control the fiscal drag and analyses the effect of such adjustments in the Austrian tax system. Depending on the adjustment model, the range of the fiscal drag by 2021 lies between a tax burden of € 4 billion (tax brackets adjusted once the cumulative inflation reaches the 5 percent threshold) and between a tax reduction of € 1.6 billion (the tax system is adjusted to the development of nominal wages). In the latter case an adjustment leads to an over-compensation of the fiscal drag yielding a constant tax burden relative to income. For the entire elimination of the fiscal drag an annual inflationary adjustment of the tax brackets, tax credits and deductibles is necessary.     

Konsolidierungsprogramme der Länder für finanzschwache Kommunen

Many German states set up special financial assistance programmes focusing on municipalities in fiscal distress. As a result, participating authorities show significant improvements in crucial financial indicators. However, there are some adverse effects in the indicators, as well. In particular, tax revenue is below average, welfare spending is continuously increasing and investment figures point toward further decline. Those findings demonstrate an ongoing and lasting fiscal burden on those authorities.     

Keynesian Fiscal Stimulus: What Have We Learned from the Great Recession?

What have we learned from the Great Recession about Keynesian fiscal stimulus? This article contains five sections that develop the following five points: (1) There is confusion about what constitutes fiscal stimulus; (2) economists are deeply divided about fiscal stimulus; (3) A fundamental error has been committed by an influential economist in estimating the recession magnitude of the Keynesian multiplier; (4) A fundamental error has been committed by two influential economists in their analysis of the impact of the 2008 tax rebate on consumption spending; and (5) advocates of fiscal stimulus in recession should support keeping government debt low in prosperity.     

财政风险金融化影响经济增长的模型分析与实证检验

中央政府以金融手段化解财政风险的行为,即为财政风险金融化。这种策略在短期内可能会抑制财政风险,但是,它不仅会导致通货膨胀,加大纳税人的税负,还会导致财政风险的持续上升,因此,从长期来看,财政风险金融化会向上推动经济风险,并最终抑制经济增长与发展。基于中国数据的协整检验表明,财政风险金融化在长期内对经济增长具有模型的抑制效应,若不有效限制这种政府行为,后果不堪设想。     

Der Reformationstag als gesetzlicher Feiertag und seine fiskalischen Effekte

In the German system of fiscal equalisation, Länder (states) with below-average tax revenue receive above average payments. The difference between the average and the own tax revenue per capita is compensated up to 63%. To prevent states from getting payments from other states by lowering their own tax rates, tax revenue with taxing autonomy is standardised. States can also influence their tax revenues by changing the number of holidays because each state decides on its own. In 2018, the Bremen, Hamburg, Lower Saxony and Schleswig Holstein introduced designated Reformation Day as a holiday (Berlin also plans to add a holiday). A state with numerous holidays will have lower tax revenues and higher payments in the fiscal equalisation system than the same state with no extra holidays. To consider each state’s real ability to pay the fiscal equalisation system, it is necessary to eliminate the effect of differing holidays. This paper shows the fiscal consequence of the new holiday and a way to neutralise this effect and calculates the impact to the states’ payments in the fiscal equalisation system.     

社会保障税的税源与税率研究——基于2010—2050年人口预测数据

社会保障税费改革争论已久,实质问题不在于谁负责征税,而在于区分税费性质,理顺社会保障体系的结构。基于社会保障税的税源与税率的确定,以《国家人口发展战略研究报告》发布的人口数据为基础,以国民基础养老金为例,测算2010—2050年中国社会保障税的税率、财政支出占比与GDP占比,结果表明:国民基础养老金作为纯公共品,应由政府通过税收的方式为其筹集资金,资金来源的可行方式是征收社会保障税。     

税收和政府支出政策对产出动态冲击效应的计量分析

本文运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型方法，研究我国税收和政府支出政策对产出所产生的动态冲击效应。主要结论是：(1)税收的正冲击对产出仅有负的短期效应，即减税的财政政策在短期促进产出增长。政府支出正冲击对产出有正效应，而且其效果是中长期有效的。(2)增税的税收政策抑制私人消费，而扩大政府支出则会促进私人消费；(3)增税的税收政策抑制投资，但扩大政府支出则促进投资。     

Steuerschätzung 2013 bis 2018: deutlich steigendes Steueraufkommen

According to the latest official tax estimate, tax revenue will continue to rise in the coming years under favourable economic conditions. The tax receipts will expand from €600 bn in 2012 to roughly €732 bn in 2018. The tax-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase to 23% by the end of the forecast period (2012: 22.5%). This results from the effect of the progressive structure of the income tax schedule on revenues. The tax revenue estimate shows that the effects of fiscal drag, which have been present since 2010, could be eliminated in the next few years.     

Steuerpolitik und Wirtschaftswachstum

The design of the tax system matters for economic growth. During times of economic crisis, tax instruments such as temporary tax cuts can be used to soften adverse effects on the economy by stimulating private and corporate spending. However, empirical evidence suggests that the overall impact of short term tax policies is limited. In the long run, the structure of the tax system is essential to building up an investment friendly and innovation-stimulating environment, which will promote sustainable economic growth.     

基于财政分权的地方住房保障财政供给能力实证研究

住房保障是政府的重要责任,受到政治、经济和社会多种因素影响,以财政分权因素为例,分析发现：我国分税制改革尚未形成激励地方政府自觉增加住房保障财政供给的机制,现行财政分权模式不利于增强地方政府住房保障供给能力。今后需要结合分税制改革,明确中央和地方各级政府的住房保障责任,并将其作为财政投入的依据,结合我国住房保障供给与城镇化进程、城镇贫困和低收入人群的住房保障需求,合理规划和制定住房保障政策,增加财政投入,提高供给水平。