Income Drawdown Schemes for a Defined-Contribution Pension Plan

In retirement a pensioner must often decide how much money to withdraw from a pension fund, how to invest the remaining funds, and whether to purchase an annuity. These decisions are addressed here by introducing a number of income drawdown schemes, which are relevant to a defined-contribution personal pension plan. The optimal asset allocation is defined so that it minimizes the expected loss of the pensioner as measured by the performance of the pension fund against a benchmark. Two benchmarks are considered: a risk-free investment and the price of an annuity. The fair-value income drawdown rate is defined so that the fund performance is a martingale under the objective measure. Annuitization is recommended if the expected fair-value drawdown rate falls below the annuity rate available at retirement. As an illustration, the annuitization age is calculated for a Gompertz mortality distribution function and a power law loss function.     

论基本养老保险基金投资国债的流程重塑

本文分析了当前基本养老保险基金投资国债面临的问题。本文认为,根据我国国债市场现状和我国基本养老基金的运行特点,应取消地方社保部门的养老基金管理权,归并养老基金投资账户,由中央政府养老基金管理机构统一招标确定基金托管银行和投资机构,地方社保部门再根据资金需求申购或赎回养老基金。     

延迟退休对城镇职工养老保险收支影响的净效应估计——基于2025年起渐进式延迟退休年龄的假设

鉴于延迟退休对养老金收支有多重影响,本文假定2025年起以"每4年延迟1年"节奏,逐步将男(女)养老金正常领取年龄(NRA)从60(55)岁提高至2049年的65(60)岁,利用中国未来分年龄人口数的完整估计数据,估算了延迟退休对城镇职工基本养老保险收支影响的净效应。估算结果显示,延迟退休为2050年争取到了近25%的制度赡养比下降空间,养老压力高峰期大大推迟。无论延迟与否,未来养老金收支缺口规模都很大,但延迟退休对抑制缺口扩大仍有显著效果,特别是在短中期,每年的收支缺口会因此减少40%~70%,但2050年后的远期效果明显减弱。建议尽早实施渐次延迟退休,减少工作退休的强制性,尊重国情允许男女差龄退休;加强养老金财政补贴长期规划,减轻远期财政兜底压力;加强养老金缴费与受益的精算联系,大力提高基金投资效率等。     

金融危机对拉美国家私营养老金的影响及经验启示

2008年爆发的金融危机对全球经济产生了重要影响,也对拉美国家私营养老金制度的发展产生了巨大冲击。文章介绍了拉美国家私营养老金制度的改革路径和养老基金概况,从养老金资产价值、投资收益率、投资组合、雇员、制度覆盖面和缴费密度方面切入,分析了金融危机对拉美私营养老金制度的影响。在现状分析的基础上,得出了要保障私营养老金制度可持续运行的一些经验启示:构建多元化的混合型养老金体系,增强退休和养老金支付的灵活性,积极运用生命周期投资策略,实施多元化和分散化投资,以养老金长期收益作为投资目标,建立社会风险应急储备基金和政府担保机制,以及加强员工退休教育。     

FINANCIAL LITERACY AND PENSION INVESTMENT DECISIONS

The call for enhanced financial literacy amongst consumers is a global phenomenon, driven by the growing complexity of financial markets and products, and government concerns about the affordability of supporting an ageing population. Worldwide, defined benefit pensions are giving way to the risk and uncertainty of defined contribution superannuation/pension funds where fund members now make choices and decisions that were once made on their behalf. An important prerequisite for informed financial decision‐making is adequate financial knowledge and skills to make competent investment decisions. This paper reports the findings of an online survey of the members of a large Australian public sector‐based superannuation fund and shows that although respondents generally understand basic financial matters, on average, their understanding of investments concepts, such as the relationship between risk and returns, is inadequate. These results highlight the need for education programs focusing specifically on developing fund members’ investment knowledge and skills to facilitate informed retirement savings decisions.     

Deterministic Modeling of Defined-Contribution Pension Funds

Abstract

Formulas are derived to model the response of a money purchase, defined-contribution pension fund to the following types of investment shock: (1) an instantaneous fall in the value of the fund assets and (2) a permanent, uniform reduction in the rate of earned interest. An alternative defined-contribution fund, incorporating a variable defined-benefit scale, is then proposed, and its responses to the same investment shocks are compared with those of the money purchase fund. The comparison shows that the variable defined-benefit approach offers a useful alternative to the money purchase principle for defined-contribution pension funds.     

Would emerging market pension funds benefit from international diversification: investigating wealth accumulations for pension participants

In recent years, investment portfolio selection is growing in importance for many emerging market pension funds, as pension reforms replace traditional pay-as-you-go systems with advanced funding systems. Various investment regulations are applied to the funded pensions, particularly in the form of portfolio limits for equities and international assets. With a bootstrap simulation approach, this paper attempts to quantify the impacts on retirement benefits of restricting international assets from the investment portfolios of emerging market pension funds. We find that, on average, over half of the pension portfolios of emerging market countries should be in international assets in order to maximize the expected utility of moderate and conservative pension fund participants. More generally, international assets can play a significant role in the investment portfolios for workers with risk aversion varying from aggressive to conservative. With few exceptions, the entire probability distribution of wealth accumulations at retirement could be shifted higher with the inclusion of international assets.     

Asset Wealth and Asset Decumulation among Households in the Retirement Survey

This paper examines the asset positions of households at and around retirement in Britain using the Retirement Survey ‘waves’ of 1988–89 and 1994. The data provide the first panel evidence on retirement behaviour and asset evolution for a sample of older households in Britain. The analysis in this paper shows the importance of housing and private pension wealth for this age-group in Britain, and also the differential wealth holdings between surviving respondents and those who died or failed to respond for other reasons in 1994. It provides some preliminary evidence as to whether households decumulate assets after retirement in accordance with the ‘textbook’ version of the Life-Cycle Hypothesis of consumption.     

THE COST OF MUTUAL FUND DISTRIBUTION FEES

Many individuals purchase shares in mutual funds as investments. With a lack of evidence supporting performance persistence in fund returns, investors should consider expenses as a fund-selection tool since fund expenses have a negative effect on fund returns. One of the largest expenses incurred by fund investors is distribution expenses, which include both load charges and annual fees. Close to two-thirds of all equity funds charge investors for fund distribution. The true cost of these distribution fees to investors is hard to measure because a myriad of distribution arrangements have evolved that vary both the timing and magnitude of distribution charges. We derive a simple methodology that expresses the present value of distribution costs as a percentage of the original investment in fund shares for any expected holding period. This methodology allows direct comparison of the effect on investors of distribution fees for mutual funds with different types of sales arrangements.     

The relationship between pension funds and the stock market: Does the aging population of Europe affect it?

In recent decades, pension fund investment has increased rapidly because of population aging and growing doubts about the viability of western public pension systems. As a result, pension funds have become dominant in stock markets. This paper examines the influence of the pension fund assets invested in equities on stock market development and the market efficiency of 13 European countries, from 1999 to 2014. Our results vary by country, by pension model and among the one-model countries. Nevertheless, revealing a concern about saving for retirement. Finally, our efficiency analysis reveals that the influence of pension funds varies over time and across markets, due to arbitrage opportunities that provoke adaptive managerial strategies.     

South African individual retirement savings: An analysis of the social factors

This study's primary aim is to determine whether members of a South African tertiary institution's retirement fund are en route to have sufficient retirement savings. Secondly, the results are analysed between different social factors namely: age, gender, race, education level, marital status, and cost of employment. Survey data and information received directly from the retirement fund were used as inputs in a customised model. This method was unique to this study, that is, it was able to consider broader circumstances other than the member's retirement savings within the fund only. Among the sample of 753 respondents, one‐third of respondents will have insufficient retirement savings and <10% will have enough. Single, younger and male respondents are most likely to have sufficient retirement savings and this is suggested to be as a result of advantageous annuity rates upon retirement. Black/African respondents were least likely to have sufficient retirement savings. Notwithstanding the racial population divide following apartheid, societal and cultural explanations speak to a culture of increased spending coupled with high financial dependency relationships. Thus, the findings provide rich information which necessitates policies which address leakage from retirement savings, appropriate defaults, and the availability of innovative and affordable savings vehicles.     

Beliefs and actions: expectations and savings decisions by older Americans

To understand the interaction of savings behavior, pension fund participation and expectations of retirement well being, we ask two questions. Are expected pension benefits a substitute for accumulated savings in replacing preretirement income? Are individuals’ expectations concerning their retirement standard of living realistic based on their accumulated savings and pension plan participation? First-wave data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) are analyzed using a probit regression. The results are consistent with the idea that pension benefits are substitutes for saving and that accumulated savings have a significant impact on the expected standard of living but pension plan participation does not.     

CalPERS基金运作机制及对我国企业年金的借鉴

本文研究了美国最大的公共养老基金——加利福尼亚州公共雇员养老基金（CalPERS）的运作机制，包括治理横式、参与公司治理以及投资组台构成等，分析了CalPERS的改革动向及其含义，提出了强化我国企业年金理事会职责，改革企业年金理事会成员构成、引入外部独立理事、积极参与公司治理、投资组合多样化等政策主张。     

加快推动我国养老基金通过PPP模式投资基础设施项目

党的十八届三中全会提出建立更加公平可持续的社会保障制度,开展市场化、专业化、多元化的养老基金投资运营是其中一项必不可少的重要内容。我国养老基金投资需求与社会基础设施建设的融资需求有极高的匹配度。一方面,随着近年来我国人口出生率的下降和预期寿命延长,人口老龄化程度不断加剧,养老基金给付压力不断加大,基金财务可持续性受到严峻挑战,保值增值压力突出;另一方面,随着我国城镇化进程推进,当前以政府融资建设为主的项目融资方式已不能满足需要。近年来,党中央、国务院多次研究部署加大重点领域有效投资,特别是注重推广政府和社会资本合作模式(PPP模式),汇聚全社会力量扩大公共产品及服务供给。拓展以养老基金为代表的长期资金投资基础设施的渠道,既能够满足我国庞大基础设施建设的资金需求,又可以同时满足养老基金长期稳定收益及保值增值的需求。     

财政分权如何加剧了养老保险基金失衡?——基于收支二维视角的分析

基金失衡是当前养老保险制度改革面临的困境。本文从财政分权角度构建基金失衡的解释框架,并对其影响效果与作用机制进行实证检验。结果发现,财政分权显著加剧了养老保险基金的失衡风险,在经内生性与稳健性处理后,这一结果依然成立,且财政分权的影响效应主要通过征缴效率和提前退休两个机制实现。具体而言,财政分权诱发地方政府放松缴费监管,导致养老保险缴费收入遭受损失;财政分权引起地方政府降低退休审核,以致职工提前退休现象较为普遍,进而加大了基金支付需求;制度环境对财政分权的两种作用路径具有门槛效应,在基金相对富余、对财政补贴依赖度低以及总体法定费率较高时,财政分权的作用机制更加突显。本文验证了宏观经济体制对养老保险基金运行的影响,深化了对分权体制与养老保险制度关系的理解。     

Integrating corporate ownership and pension fund structures: A general equilibrium approach

This paper studies pension fund design in the context of investment in the debt and equity of a firm. We employ a general equilibrium framework to demonstrate that: (i) the asset location ‘puzzle’ is purely a partial equilibrium phenomenon, conceived in a risk neutral setting, that disappears with the introduction of sufficient risk aversion; (ii) the inability of policy makers to manage an economy with multiple firms yields a mixed equilibrium, where bonds are observed in both taxable and tax-deferred accounts; and (iii) the Pareto-efficient pension plan comprises of a defined benefit plan.     

Pension Funds’ Asset Allocation and Participant Age: A Test of the Life‐Cycle Model

This article examines the impact of participants’ age distribution on the asset allocation of Dutch pension funds, using a unique data set of pension fund investment plans for 2007. Theory predicts a negative effect of age on (strategic) equity exposures. We observe that a 1‐year higher average age in active participants leads to a significant and robust reduction of the strategic equity exposure by around 0.5 percentage point. Larger pension funds show a stronger age‐equity exposure effect. The average age of active participants influences investment behavior more strongly than the average age of all participants, which is plausible as retirees no longer possess any human capital.     

The real risk in pension forecasting

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on some of the flaws in the forecasting approach undertaken by the pension industry. Specifically, it considers the treatment of inflation and shows that the current modeling framework is too simplistic. I identify the flaws of the existing regulatory framework and provide an alternative full model framework constructed around the three-factor diffusion model recently proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries. By use of a simulation study I compare the deterministic inflation scheme applied in the industry to a stochastic scheme and show that the real value of the pension saver’s investment portfolio at retirement is highly dependent on the inflation scheme. As the deterministic scheme does not take state variable correlations into account it overestimates the expected portfolio value in real terms compared to the stochastic scheme. Moreover, the deterministic scheme gives rise to a more heavy-tailed distribution implying a misestimation of downside risk and upside potential. Finally, it is shown in a realistic case study that the pension saver’s expected retirement payout profile is heavily affected.     

The Value and Risk of Defined Contribution Pension Schemes: International Evidence

We use historical data on investment returns and labor income from 16 countries to quantify the value and risk of defined contribution pension plans, building frequency distributions of pension fund and pension replacement ratios for each country. We show that pension risk is substantial and find that pension fund ratios are lower and less variable than when the correlation between wage growth and investment returns is ignored, typically halving the median pension fund ratio. We also show that an all‐equity fund is the dominant investment strategy across all countries, although sometimes a life‐cycle strategy insures against downside risk.     

How the provision of inflation information affects pension contributions: A field experiment

Ignoring the effects of inflation in retirement planning can have severe consequences for an individual's future financial well-being. Yet, many pension funds do not communicate inflation-related information, presumably for the fear of reduced contributions once the members understand how low the “real” return on saving for retirement is. As an alternative prediction, the provision of inflation information could increase pension contributions, because it reveals possible pension shortfalls. In cooperation with a major German pension fund, we conduct a field experiment, in which we vary the inflation information provided to the fund members, to explore this important issue. Among all participants, we find mostly positive but insignificant effects of the inflation information on pension contributions. Among those participants who voluntarily changed their pension contributions after the experimental intervention, the provision of inflation information significantly raises the likelihood of increasing pension contributions.