土地财政依赖、保障房与商品房价格关系

商品房价格受多种因素影响,其中土地财政依赖与商品房价格间存在着不显著的正向关系;经济适用房的供给量显著负向影响商品房的价格,负向调节着土地财政依赖与商品房价格之间的关系。为了控制房价过快上涨,应合理分配土地财政收入,提高保障房建设的投入比例;增加经济适用房供给量,降低购房预期;拓宽地方政府融资渠道,理清地方政府债务关系。     

美国金融危机和亚洲金融危机起因的比较

<正>2008年下半年,由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机席卷全球,至今尚未见底。1997年7月2日,泰国宣布放弃固定汇率制,实行浮动汇率制,引发了一场遍及东南亚的金融风暴,1999年才结束,这就是亚洲金融危机。两次金融危机爆发前后相距11年。本文探讨了前后两次金融危机的起因,以期对我国金融业有所警示。     

中国人口、家庭户与住房需求预测研究

我国未来住房需求的变化将受到人口、家庭户数量和结构变动的影响.在人口预测的基础上,采用扩展的户主率家庭预测模型,假定分家庭规模、户主年龄、性别的户主率不变或变化的情况下,预测未来家庭户的数量、结构情况.在此基础上,结合2000年普查得到的不同家庭户类型住房情况的信息,对未来30年我国城乡居民住房面积和间数的需求进行了预测.由于人口和家庭户的增长,我国居民住房面积和间数的需求在未来三十年将持续增长;由于家庭户数量增长速度超过人口数量增长的速度,按家庭户变化预测的未来居民住房的需求较大;由于人口和家庭户结构的变化,未来三十年的住房需求在不同时期的情况有所不同,年均新增住房需求的增长在2015年前虽波动起伏,但变化不大;加15年之后,年均新增住房需求将逐步下降.     

中国人口、家庭户与住房需求预测研究

我国未来住房需求的变化将受到人口、家庭户数量和结构变动的影响。在人口预测的基础上,采用扩展的户主率家庭预测模型,假定分家庭规模、户主年龄、性别的户主率不变或变化的情况下,预测未来家庭户的数量、结构情况。在此基础上,结合2000年普查得到的不同家庭户类型住房情况的信息,对未来30年我国城乡居民住房面积和间数的需求进行了预测。由于人口和家庭户的增长,我国居民住房面积和间数的需求在未来三十年将持续增长;由于家庭户数量增长速度超过人口数量增长的速度,按家庭户变化预测的未来居民住房的需求较大;由于人口和家庭户结构的变化,未来三十年的住房需求在不同时期的情况有所不同,年均新增住房需求的增长在2015年前虽波动起伏,但变化不大; 2015年之后,年均新增住房需求将逐步下降。     

浅议住房公积金会计核算中出现的问题

住房公积金按权责发生制进行会计核算,核算年度与结算年度有所不同,并且住房公积金会计核算的侧重点与经营企业不同,成本核算和资金使用相关信息的及时性与准确性是重点。住房公积金会计核算在归集与提取、业务收支核算、应收或应付利息核算、增值收益分配、贷款风险准备金提取等方面容易出现问题。国家应不断完善住房公积金会计核算的相关制度、明细科目的设置以及应收、应付利息的会计核算,提高机构人员素质,建立科学的内部控制制度。     

E-coli,Repo Madness,and the Financial Crisis

All bond prices plummeted (spreads rose) during the financial crisis, not just the prices of subprime-related bonds. These price declines were because of a banking panic in which institutional investors and firms refused to renew sale and repurchase agreements (repos)—short-term, collateralized, agreements that the U.S. Federal Reserve rightly used to count as money. Collateral for repos was, to a large extent, securitized bonds. Firms were forced to sell assets as a result of the banking panic, reducing all bond prices and creating losses. There is nothing mysterious or irrational about the panic. There were genuine fears about the locations of subprime risk concentrations among counterparties. This banking system (the “shadow” or “parallel” banking system)—repos based on securitization—is a genuine banking system, as large as the traditional, regulated banking system. It is of critical importance to the economy because it is the funding basis for the traditional banking system. Without it, traditional banks will not lend and credit will not be created.     

金融危机对金融业的影响和对策

在当前全球一体化背景下,金融危机对世界上绝大多数经济体都产生了较大的影响。当前,国际金融危机远未结束,全球经济复苏步履维艰,国际金融跌宕起伏,贸易保护主义抬头,外需疲软。国内外严峻形势和宏观市场环境导致金融机构业务经营难度和风险管控的难度不断增大,中国金融业的发展无疑将面临非常巨大的挑战,许多中国金融企业核心竞争力不强,管理水平不高,创新能力不足等仍然是普遍的问题。应对金融危机,应健全风险管理系统,贷后个人信用风险处置系统,贷中个人信用状况监控系统,完善个人资信档案登记制度和个人资信调查制度,完善信用管理系统。     

综合优势、发展战略与金融危机——对“东亚奇迹”及金融危机的再解释

近十年来,关于一国或地区(尤其是欠发达国家或地区)应该选择何种经济发展战略的问题,在我国经济学界中出现了赶超战略论与比较优势战略论之争。本文提出了"综合优势战略论":在经济发展过程中,实施赶超战略容易造成"赶超困境",而实施比较优势战略则容易陷入"比较优势陷阱",只有实施综合考虑比较优势、分工优势和交易效率优势的"综合优势发展战略",才能够使经济持续、健康、快速地发展。"东亚奇迹"既非比较优势战略之功劳,也不是赶超战略之成就,而是实施综合优势战略的结果。偏离综合优势的经济更易于出现金融危机:赶超战略式的过度创新导致了源自美国的国际金融危机,而比较优势战略则引发了1997年的东南亚金融危机。     

金融危机引发的企业危机管理思考

<正>全球持续蔓延的金融危机给世界各国企业造成沉重打击。就我国企业而言,也不可避免地纷纷出现订单下降、销量下滑、利润降低、出口受阻、裁员、降薪、破产、倒闭等现象,在外向型企业中尤为严重。但不要忘记,任何事物的发展都有内因和外因两方面的因素。外因只是条件,仅起     

金融风暴产生的影响及对策分析

美国次贷危机引发的世界金融危机使得所有以美元作为外汇储备的国家损失严重,这些国家无论出钱与否都是美国救市的买单者,面对此类危机,中国政府应该降低贸易顺差,减少美元外汇储备,促使出口贸易多元化,增加国内需求,稳定国内经济,以此减缓世界金融风暴的蔓延。     

The Financial Crisis and the Implementation of Monetary Policy

The ongoing financial crisis has had a dramatic impact on how the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy. In this paper I outline how the Federal Reserve implements monetary policy during “ordinary” circumstances, and compare and contrast this with how it has implemented policy in the wake of the crisis, especially in the latter part of 2008.     

金融海啸下女性服装市场依然红火

<正>2009年是不平凡的一年,世界各国都经历了沉重的打击,中国也不例外。自全球经济衰退在2008年第四季度冲击中国以来,中国的企业状况和消费者信心指数一度跌至历史低位。尽管快速消费品行业被普遍视为具有"防御性"的行业,但其销售额仍然受到了不同程度的影响。     

金融危机下的风险分析与应对策略

2008年下半年船市所面临的风险可能比上半年表现得更严重。世界船东投入资金正在骤减,我国船舶工业需要注意由资金短缺和断裂所造成的信用违约风险甚至危机,研究新形势下风险的应对策略。     

韩国住房政策的历史演变及启示

韩国的住房政策具有较强的政府主导型特征,政府不仅对住房市场进行了积极的政策调控,而且还直接参与了住房建设。尤其对低收入阶层的住房问题,韩国政府采取了政府直接投资和建设的政策。这一政策为韩国于2002年实现100%的住房普及率做出了积极的贡献。借鉴韩国住房政策的成功经验,对我国住房保障体系的建设具有重要的现实意义。     

Crisis Management and Resolution:Lessons from the Financial Crisis

The recent crisis was unusual in its speed and breadth and the type of countries affected.Systemic crises, situations of significant stress in the financial sector, followed by significant policy interventions, often affect several countries at the same time.In the past, though, crises have been largely limited to specific regions or types of economies, the Nordic countries in the early 1990s, Latin America in the mid-1990s, Asia in the late 1990s, and the emerging market economies of the early 2000s.The recent crisis has been unusual in its global nature, affecting countries with a speed and virulence not seen since the Great Depression, with major advance countries and countries recently integrating with the European Union (EU) most affected.     

Whistleblowing,Governance and Regulation Before the Financial Crisis: The Case of HBOS

Following the financial crisis of 2008, the Treasury Committee of the UK House of Commons undertook an inquiry into the lessons that might be learned from the banking crisis. Paul Moore, head of group regulatory risk at Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) during 2002–2005, provided evidence of his experience of questioning HBOS policies which resulted in his dismissal from HBOS. The problems that surfaced at HBOS during the financial crisis were so serious that it was forced to merge with Lloyds TSB, another UK bank, to form the Lloyds Banking Group in which the government took a significant stake. Moore’s evidence to the Treasury Committee revealed that long before the financial crisis, he had raised major concerns with the management of HBOS and with the Financial Services Authority (FSA), the UK financial services regulator. Moore’s evidence led to the submission of further disclosures, replies and rejoinders as evidence to the Treasury Committee. Moore’s case is therefore of considerable interest to researchers of whistleblowing because it is a rare instance of high-level whistleblowing, the details of which subsequently entered the public domain. The information revealed in evidence to the Treasury Committee sheds light on the process of whistleblowing in the context of the governance and regulation of a major UK bank that subsequently had to be rescued by government intervention during the financial crisis. The paper makes a contribution to the wider literature on whistleblowing, and to a greater understanding of aspects of the financial crisis.     

金融监管改革与金融稳定:美国金融危机的反思

由次贷问题引发的全球金融危机凸显了美国金融监管缺失的风险和加强金融改革的重要性。在几十年的发展中,美国金融监管体系逐步演进为双层多头的分业监管模式,促进了美国金融市场的繁荣。但是危机的爆发表明这种监管体系缺乏统一监管者,无法有效防范系统性危机,因而存在监管缺陷和监管效率相对低下的问题。危机后,美国政府开始意识到有效金融监管的重要性,并着力进行实质性的改革,以减轻美国金融监管体系与其金融市场制度、金融业务模式等的背离程度。新的监管体系方案有利于提高监管的有效性和促进金融稳定,但并不能根除金融危机根源,并且可能萌生新的金融风险。     

The Corporate Psychopaths Theory of the Global Financial Crisis

This short theoretical paper elucidates a plausible theory about the Global Financial Crisis and the role of senior financial corporate directors in that crisis. The paper presents a theory of the Global Financial Crisis which argues that psychopaths working in corporations and in financial corporations, in particular, have had a major part in causing the crisis. This paper is thus a very short theoretical paper but is one that may be very important to the future of capitalism because it discusses significant ways in which Corporate Psychopaths may have acted recently, to the detriment of many. Further research into this theory is called for.     

金融危机理论演进与发展研究

随着我国金融开放的深度和广度的不断提高,旧有风险进一步暴露,新的风险进一步产生。我国经济受全球经济波动的影响越来越大,发生金融危机的可能性也在增大。由于金融危机的最大特征就是货币的急剧贬值,关于货币危机的研究也最为成熟,目前已形成四代理论模型。而银行业危机理论和外债危机理论的研究比较分散,还没有形成像货币危机理论那样完善的体系。