Monetary policy and the yield curve in an emerging market: the Greek case

This paper explores the impact of monetary policy actions on the nominal term yield curve in the Greek money market. Essentially, the monetary transmission mechanism is under scrutiny in testing monetary policy effectiveness. We focus on the dynamic inter-relationship between the short-term monetary policy instrument (Overnight rate) and market rates across the term structure. The findings are in accordance with the fact that Expectations Hypothesis monetary policy actions have a significant impact on all market rates; however, the impact is decreasing monotonically with maturity of the interest rate.     

Institutional quality and market selection in the transition to market economy

This paper investigates the impact of institutional quality on the productivity, profitability and survival of new entrants versus those of incumbent firms in a transitional setting, Vietnam. By integrating economic and institutional perspectives, we emphasize the importance of institutional quality in shaping the evolution of industry dynamics. We find that poor institutional quality that acts as institutional buffering for incumbents jeopardizes the Schumpeterian market selection process. In particular, despite being more productive and profitable, new entrants are still more likely to exit than incumbents on average. As a consequence, facing poor institutions, only new entrants with sufficiently high productivity and profitability are able to survive. However, improving institutional quality does not enhance new entrants' survival and entrepreneurial performance; rather, it removes the survival advantage of incumbents and thus reduces the differences in performance and exit hazard between new entrants and incumbents. We investigate this seemingly paradoxical relationship using Vietnamese census data from 2006 to 2013.     

Consumers in transition from the centrally planned economy to the market economy

The article describes the development of consumption and the key consumer policy issues which stem from the transition of Central and East European economies from regimes of central planning to those of market economy. The author analyzes the role of the consumers in the evolution of the communist economies. His conclusion is that maintaining consumption at or below subsistence level (massive starvation was common) was one of the major sources of financing the USSR socialist industrialization under Stalin. This was not possible in the East European people's democracies and, after Stalin's death, in the USSR. Repressed inflation (permanent shortages of consumption goods) and foreign debt became new sources of financing growth in the later stages of the development of the communist economies, a development which caused a permanent disequilibrium leading to negative economic growth and massive popular revolt. The transition to the market economy makes it necessary to address these disequilibrium problems. Two transition strategies are discussed: gradual transition and shock treatment therapy. These strategies give rise to different consumer problems and to different sets of issues facing the consumer movement.

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Konsumenten im Übergang von der Planwirtschaft zur Marktwirtschaft

Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag beschreibt, wie sich der private Verbrauch beim Übergang von einer zentral geplanten Wirtschaft zu einer Marktwirtschaft in den osteuropäischen Staaten entwickelt und welche verbraucherpolitischen Aufgaben sich dabei ergeben.Der Autor beschäftigt sich mit der Rolle der Konsumenten in der Entwicklung der kommunistischen Gesellschaften in der UdSSR und in den östlichen Staaten Mitteleuropas. Er kommt zu dem Ergebnis, daß die Begrenzung des Verbrauches auf das Existenzminimum oder auf ein Niveau darunter (massive Hungersnöte waren verbreitet) ursprünglich eine der wichtigsten Quellen war, aus denen das Programm der sozialistischen Industrialisierung in der UdSSR unter Stalin finanziert wurde. Dieses Modell einer industriellen Entwicklung ließ sich in den anderen europäischen kommunistischen Staaten nicht durchführen und war nach Stalins Tod auch in der UdSSR nicht mehr möglich. In der Folgezeit wurden eine unterdrückte Inflation in der Form von dauerhafter Knapphiet von Konsumgütern und wachsende Auslandsschulden neue Quellen für die Finanzierung des industriellen Wachstums — eine Entwicklung, die ihre eigenen Ziele auf Dauer nicht erreichen konnte. Sie führte gegen Ende der 80iger Jahre zu negativen Wachstumsraten, zu massiver Unzufriedenheit in der Bevölkerung, zu sehr ernsthaften Umweltproblemen und zu riesigen Auslandsschulden. Versuche, die kommunistischen Volkswirtschaften zu reformieren ohne Veränderung der politischen und ideologischen Grundlagen, schlugen völlig fehl.Der Beitrag diskutiert zwei Strategien für den Übergang in das neue Wirtschaftssystem. Die eine ist der ungarische Weg eines allmählichen Überganges mit der Fortsetzung der Reformen, die noch unter kommunistischer Herrschaft begonnen wurden, und der allmählichen Öffnung für die Kräfte des Marktes. Die andere ist die polnische Form einer Schocktherapie mit abrupter völliger Öffnung gegenüber den Kräften des Marktes. Beide Strategien führen zu jeweils verschiedenen Verbraucherproblemen mit unterschiedlichen Anforderungen an die Verbraucherpolitik.

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Andrzej K. Kozminski is Professor and Chair of the Department of Management and Organization in the School of Management of Warsaw University, Director of the Warsaw University Postgraduate International Management Center, and President of the International Business School, Nowy Swiat 4, 00-497 Warsaw, Poland.     

Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy

This paper analyzes optimal monetary policy in a small open economy featuring monopolistic competition and nominal rigidities. It shows that the utility-based loss function for this economy can be written as a quadratic expression of domestic inflation, output gap and real exchange rate. The presence of an internal monopolistic distortion and a terms of trade externality drives optimal policy away from domestic inflation targeting and affects the optimal level of exchange rate volatility. When domestic and foreign goods are close substitutes for each other, the optimal policy rule implies lower real exchange rate volatility than a domestic inflation targeting regime. The reverse is true when the elasticity of substitution between goods is low.     

Family economics in Russia: women's perspectives on the transition to a market economy

Abstract This study of family economic variables is based on in-depth oral interviews conducted in the spring of 1995 with 95 women living in Moscow, Russia. The survey explored family economic life in a variety of socioeconomic settings. Data gathered include an overview of the household economy, family income and expenses, satisfaction with current economic situation, patterns of consumption, work culture and women's culture. In addition, the subjects were asked to comment on the current status of women in Russia, the state of the economy and the role government should play in the economy. The analysis contributes to an understanding of the relationship between the reproduction economy and the macro/production economy in a time of major economic upheaval.     

Monetary policy in a developing economy with external debt: Theory and empirics

Using annual data from four open economies (Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico, and Chile), and estimating correlations and generalized impulse responses within the traditional vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis, we find that inflation, both in the short and long run, is negatively correlated with consumption, investment, and the stock of foreign debt. We propose an optimizing model of an open economy with outstanding foreign debt and borrowing constraint that could explain these empirics. In this economy, risk premium depends on creditworthiness measured by debt–income ratio. Firms operate under costly investment, and all transactions involving consumption and investment are subject to cash-in-advance (CIA) constraints.     

The road to a market economy

The ongoing conversion of the economies of former socialist countries into market economies has so far suffered from the lack of a theory of system transformation (policy) which indicates the means of achieving the desired objectives and makes it possible to evaluate the transformation policies of individual countries. The following article outlines the essential aspects of such a theory.     

From command economy to market economy with a human face: The potential role of the stakeholder approach

This article questions the wisdom of the tendency to adopt managerial capitalism, in its purest form, as the only guiding principle of the new organizational philosophy now evolving in Eastern Europe. The article's main thesis is that following the demise of the command economy, the stakeholder approach can play a pivotal role in providing social legitimacy to organizations attempting to transform and revitalize in the newly created market economy in Eastern Europe. Rather than viewing maximization of profits to the stockholders as the enterprise's sole responsibility, this approach calls for a management strategy that matches the enterprise's “values” to the “values” of all its stakeholders optimizing, over the long-term, the net (social and economic) value added to society. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Re-examining foreign subsidiary survival in a transition economy: Impact of market identity overlap and conflict

Taking an identity perspective from the organizational ecology literature, we re-examine foreign subsidiary survival in a transition economy. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) with a socialist identity and privately owned enterprises (POEs) with a market identity exert different influences on foreign-owned enterprises (FOEs). SOEs and POEs affect the survival of FOEs primarily through the cognitive legitimation process. SOEs tend to crowd out FOEs due to identity conflict. Owing to identity overlap, POEs tend to increase the survival chances of FOEs. The level of socialist legacy in regions where FOEs are located affects the sociopolitical legitimacy of FOEs’ market identity, thus moderating the relationships between SOE and POE density and the survival of foreign subsidiaries.     

Monetary policy,exchange rate fluctuation,and herding behavior in the stock market

Interest rate and exchange rate are two important macroeconomic variables that exert considerable effects on the stock market. In this study, we investigate whether variations in interest and exchange rates induce herding behavior in the Chinese stock market. Empirical results indicate that interest rate increase and Chinese currency (CNY) depreciation will induce herding and this phenomenon is mainly manifested in down markets. Moreover, the herding level of the highest idiosyncratic volatility quintile portfolio is twice that of the lowest quintile portfolio which we consider evidence of intentional herding. This result is consistent with those of previous studies, which report that retail investors prefer and overweigh lottery-type stocks. Finally, we investigate the effects of monetary policy announcements and extreme exchange rate volatility on herding because these events elicit considerable public attention and may trigger collective behavior in the aggregate market.     

The lending policy of the International Monetary Fund

In the worldwide economic and debt crisis of the eighties the International Monetary Fund increasingly became the “lender of last resort” for a great many Third World countries. With world trade weak and interest rates high, a considerable number of developing countries got into serious balance-of-payments difficulties. The demand for stand-by and extended arrangements with the Fund rose dramatically. The conditions or adjustment programmes linked to this lending not infrequently led to serious social and political tensions in the countries concerned. The term “IMF riots” was coined, and the conditionality of credit again became the subject of political and academic debate.     

Monetary policy and long‐term interest rates: Evidence from the U.S. economy

This paper addresses the ability of central banks to affect the structure of interest rates. We assess the causal relationship between the short‐term Effective Federal Funds Rate (FF) and long‐term interest rates associated with both public and private bonds and specifically, the 10‐Year Treasury Bond (GB10Y) and the Moody's Aaa Corporate Bond (AAA). To do this, we apply Structural Vector Autoregressive models to U.S. monthly data for the 1954–2018 period. Based on results derived from impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition, we find: a bidirectional relationship when GB10Y is considered as the long‐term rate and a unidirectional relationship that moves from short‐ to long‐term interest rates when AAA is considered. These conclusions show that monetary policy is able to permanently affect long‐term interest rates and the central bank has a certain degree of freedom in setting the levels of the short‐term policy rate.     

The “socialist” market economy in a communist system

The Chinese model of a “socialist” marketeconomy within a communist system is occasionally likened to the squaring of the circle. It is felt impossible to introduce a properly functioning market economy on a sustainable basis without abandoning the socialist pattern of ownership, and without jeopardizing the one-party system. The following article addresses, among other things, the tenability of this argument.     

Monetary autonomy in emerging market economies: The role of foreign reserves

This paper examines trends in monetary autonomy and their interactions with financial integration, currency regimes and foreign reserves for recent decades in emerging Asian and Latin American economies. Our main findings are the following: First, most emerging Asian economies have increased monetary autonomy mainly due to changes in currency regimes toward floating regimes, while emerging Latin American economies have shown mixed results on monetary autonomy. Second, in all sample economies, the accumulation of foreign reserves has contributed to retaining monetary autonomy, probably implying the role of foreign reserves as an anchor for monetary autonomy in emerging market economies.     

Localized advantage in a global economy: The case of Bangalore

This article examines how and why firms in Bangalore, a city in southern India, have achieved success in the global software industry. We use Porter's “diamond framework” to analyze information obtained from secondary sources and interviews with engineers, managers, and top executives from software firms and officials involved in Bangalore's development. While we found some aspects of the case conform to Porter's framework, many other elements tend to diverge from the model. Thus, the article contributes to the Porter's diamond model literature by extending its application to assessing the development of successful regions in knowledge‐based industries in developing economies. The discussion in the article would be of value to officials interested in creating such successful regions, as well as international business executives interested in the opportunities afforded by locating in these regions. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.