Using Choice Experiments to Value the Environment

This paper we outline the “choice experiment” approach to environmental valuation. This approach has its roots in Lancaster's characteristics theory of value, in random utility theory and in experimental design. We show how marginal values for the attributes of environmental assets, such as forests and rivers, can be estimated from pair-wise choices, as well as the value of the environmental asset as a whole. These choice pairs are designed so as to allow efficient statistical estimation of the underlying utility function, and to minimise required sample size. Choice experiments have important advantages over other environmental valuation methods, such as contingent valuation and travel cost-type models, although many design issues remain unresolved. Applications to environmental issues have so far been relatively limited. We illustrate the use of choice experiments with reference to a recent UK study on public preferences for alternative forest landscapes. This study allows us to perform a convergent validity test on the choice experiment estimates of willingness to pay.     

Incorporating Discontinuous Preferences into the Analysis of Discrete Choice Experiments

Data from a discrete choice experiment on improvements of rural landscape attributes are used to investigate the implications of discontinuous preferences on willingness to pay estimates. Using a multinomial error component logit model, we explore differences in scale and unexplained variance between respondents with discontinuous and continuous preferences and condition taste intensities on whether or not each attribute was considered by the respondent during the evaluation of alternatives. Results suggest that significant improvements in model performance can be achieved when discontinuous preferences are accommodated in the econometric specification, and that the magnitude and robustness of the willingness to pay estimates are sensitive to discontinuous preferences.     

产权、订约成本与企业会计政策选择

由于会计政策决定着企业财富在若干利益主体之间的分配,因此,会计政策选择研究是财务会计理论的重要内容。会计政策的选拔过程其实是若干利益主体之间的相互博弈过程,每个个体都希望其自身的效用得以最大化。因此,会计政策在企业相关利益主体之间的博弈过程中扮演了相当重要的角色,它将影响各市场主体的财富分配,进而对的配置产生重大影响。契约成本的引入使得诸如会计政策选择的动机以及选择取向变得更加清晰,本偿试用产权理论和契约成本来研究会计政策选择。     

Modelling Recreation Demand Using Choice Experiments: Climbing in Scotland

This paper is concerned with the use of thechoice experiment method for modelling thedemand for recreation, using the example ofrock-climbing in Scotland. We begin byoutlining the method itself, including itstheoretical and econometric underpinnings. Datacollection procedures are then outlined. Wepresent results from both nested and non-nestedmodels, and report some tests for theimplications of choice complexity andrationality. Finally, we compare our resultswith a revealed preference data model based onthe same sample of climbers.     

Attending to the Reasons for Attribute Non-attendance in Choice Experiments

This paper focuses on behavioural reasons underlying stated attribute non-attendance in choice experiments. In order to identify and incorporate procedures for dealing with heterogeneous attribute processing strategies, we ask respondents follow-up questions regarding their reasons for ignoring attributes. Based on these statements, we conclude that the standard way of assigning a zero impact of ignored attributes on the likelihood is inappropriate. We find that some respondents act in accordance with the passive bounded rationality assumption since they ignore an attribute simply because it does not affect their utility. Excluding these genuine zero preferences, as the standard approach essentially does, might bias results. Other respondents claim to have ignored attributes to simplify choices. However, we find that these respondents have actually not completely ignored attributes. We argue along the rationally adaptive behavioural model that valid preference information may indeed be elicited in these cases, and we illustrate how recoding of non-attendance statements conditional on stated reasons may be a more appropriate solution than the current standard way of taking stated non-attendance into account.     

PPI与CPI背离、金融摩擦异质性与货币政策选择

2011年下半年到2016年初PPI与CPI长时间持续背离的现象一直受到社会各界普遍关注.本文从大宗商品价格、上下游生产结构与金融摩擦异质性视角分析了这一现象,并探讨了货币政策规则的选择.研究发现:(1)负向大宗商品价格冲击导致PPI的下降,由此带来的货币政策宽松与中国结构性金融摩擦分别从需求端和成本端拉升了 CPI,从而导致PPI与CPI的反向背离,这为PPI与CPI的背离提供了新的理论解释.(2)本文比较了盯住PPI通胀、CPI通胀以及两者加权通胀的货币政策规则,发现盯住加权通胀带来的福利损失最小,表明央行在稳定CPI的同时,也应重视对PPI的稳定.(3)本文比较了价格型与数量型货币政策工具,结果表明从福利角度看,价格型货币政策工具显著优于数量型工具.此外,本文强调了上下游金融摩擦异质性这一结构性特征对认识中国经济现象以及制定政策的重要含义.     

Spatial Heterogeneity and the Choice of Instruments to Control Nonpoint Pollution

Because it is difficult to monitor emissions and to implement differentialtaxes and standards, uniform taxes and standards on agricultural chemicaluse are often proposed and used to control nonpoint-source pollution. Thisarticle analyzes the relative efficiency of these uniform instruments in thepresence of spatial heterogeneity. We show that the relative slopes of themarginal pollution cost and marginal profit of chemical use are only one ofthe factors that affect the relative efficiency. Other factors includecorrelation between marginal pollution costs and marginal profits and theslope and variability of marginal profits. In addition, a uniform tax mayresult in some farmers not using the chemical, and a uniform standard mayhave no effect on low-input land. We show empirically that the presence ofcorner solutions can reverse a conventional finding of tax or standardsuperiority based on the relative-slop rule.     

Using Labels to Investigate Scope Effects in Stated Preference Methods

Insufficient sensitivity to scope (variations in the scale of the environmental good on offer) remains a major criticism of stated preference methods, and many studies fail a scope test of some sort. Across a range of existing explanations for insensitivity to scope (commodity mis-specification, embedding, warm glows) there seems to exist no clear conclusion on how to deal with the problem. This paper provides an alternative explanation for insufficient sensitivity to scope, based on re-definition of the determinants of value for environmental goods within an attributes-based choice model. In the proposed framework respondents’ Willingness To Pay need depend not only on physical characteristics of a good, but may also depend on the ‘label’ under which the environmental good is ‘sold’ in the hypothetical market. To investigate this problem, a Choice Experiment study of biodiversity was conducted. We find that controlling for the effects of a label—in this case, national park designation—leads to significant increase in the scope sensitivity of welfare measures.     

Sensitivity of Willingness to Pay Estimates to the Level of Attributes in Discrete Choice Experiments

This paper considers issues raised in the application of discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to estimating willingness to pay (WTP). The main issue addressed is the sensitivity of WTP estimates to the level of attributes. A DCE, concerned with preferences for alternative cervical screening programmes, was carried out with women in the Tayside area of Scotland. A split sample design was employed in which respondents were divided into two groups. Each group received a discrete choice questionnaire that varied with respect to the levels of three of the six attributes. The price attribute was one of the attributes that varied across questionnaires. Whilst estimated coefficients were not significantly different across five of the six attributes included in the experiment, mean WTP estimates were significantly different for four of the five welfare estimates. However, from a policy point of view, such a difference may not be important. Consideration is also given to other general methodological and policy issues that are raised when using DCEs to estimate WTP. The findings suggest the need for further research into the design and application of DCEs as a method for estimating WTP.     

从选择到契约:作为治理结构的企业理论

威廉姆森主张从选择砚角转向契约视角，对企业组织理论进行研究。他针对理性体系中的宏观组织理论，提出了从组织理论到契约经济学的五个内容：(1)在更现实的条件下对人类行为者进行描述；(2)对所有重要的行为规范保持警觉；(3)治理的替代模式具有分立的结构方式；(4)多数属于微观分析法的行为分析；(5)合作适应性的重要性。最后，威廉姆森认为，采用契约视角来分析企业组织，就很自然地要求对企业进行重新的定义，作者认为，企业不是作为选择理论传统所说的一种生产功能出现的，而是作为一种治理结构出现的。     

今后五年我国利用外商直接投资的政策选择预测

我国利用外商直接投资的发展走势带有很强的政策导向性。本文在对我国利用外资的政策演变和当前国际直接投资的宏观形势进行分析的基础上，对今后五年利用外商直接投资的政策选择作出判断，并提出了独到的建议。     

Exchange Rules and the Incentive Compatibility of Choice Experiments

The incentive properties of stated-preference surveys continue to be a central debate in the valuation of public goods. The majority of empirical studies have focused on incentive properties of contingent valuation questions in relation to situations where answers have monetary consequences. This research explores the incentive properties of repeated, attribute-based choice questions when subjects are provided with an explicit connection between choices and outcomes. Two market/provision-rules are investigated: a posted-price market and a plurality-rule vote. These two provision rules are contrasted to treatments in which no provision rule is discussed—subjects are simply asked to choose their preferred alternative. These three hypothetical choice treatments are compared with a binding choice treatment. While none of the public good treatments are theoretically incentive compatible, we include a comparison of hypothetical and binding choices for a private-good that is incentive compatible. The private good experiments indicate that marginal willingness to pay (WTP) estimates from the hypothetical treatment are larger, but not statistically different than corresponding estimates in the binding choice treatment. Results for the public good experiments indicate that marginal WTP estimates from the hypothetical treatments are much larger, and statistically different than corresponding estimates in the binding choice treatment. The bias is largest when no provision rule is discussed. The bias is reduced with the inclusion of a provision rule, but surprisingly, there was no difference across provision rule treatments. Overall, our results indicate that choice experiments involving a public good should include a provision rule to reduce bias, but the resulting marginal WTP estimates may still be more biased, on average, than those arising from contingent valuation survey formats.     

贸易政策对企业区位选择的影响

本文主要研究东道国贸易政策的改变引发企业关联、聚集经济等效应影响企业投资区位选择问题 ,及发展中国家在贸易壁垒降低后 ,吸引资本密集型企业的政策与效果。     

Economic Mismeasurement and the Bias in Policy Choice

The level of economic activity is never measured perfectly because of problems of definition, inaccuracies in data collection, and the existence of the hidden economy. Such mismeasurement implies that government policies based on official statistics can be optimal only by chance. The analysis formalizes this observation in a two-sector economy and attempts to quantify the direction and extent of the bias introduced into policy by the failure to account for the true size of the economy. It is shown that short-term reform (which need not balance the government budget) can be detrimental. When a budget constraint is imposed, this ensures that reforms will be beneficial no matter how bad is the mismeasurement.     

Discrete Choice Experiments in Developing Countries: Willingness to Pay Versus Willingness to Work

A concern when conducting stated preference valuation studies in rural developing or very low income contexts is the use of monetary willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. In circumstances where cash incomes are extremely low, a significant proportion of the population are not engaged in waged labour and the exchange of goods or services is augmented through barter or work exchange, the role of money is likely to be different from that within an urban developed setting. As such, ability to pay using money may be impaired and downwardly biased when compared with other mediums of exchange. In recognition of this several studies have used hypothetical labour contributions as payment vehicles and a common finding is that households are more often willing to contribute labour than they are money. In this paper we present the results of a split sample DCE using money and labour contributions as payment vehicles for improved drinking water quality in Kandal Province, Cambodia. We find little differences between the payment vehicles in terms of attribute non-attendance, marginal utilities of attributes or derived welfare values. We argue that this provides support for the use of WTP in rural developing areas where there are functioning labour markets.     

农民增收相关政策执行中存在的问题、成因及对策

国家关于三农问题的一系列公共政策,对于农民增收、农村发展起到了巨大作用,但公共政策执行的效果如何,是否真正起到了农民增收减负的作用,是公共政策研究的重点。通过对政策执行存在问题的分析,提出应建立完善、和谐的政策执行机制,以此提高政策执行的有效性,达到提高农民增收的目的。     

Distributional Preferences and the Incidence of Costs and Benefits in Climate Change Policy

We explore the relationship between willingness to pay (WTP) for climate change mitigation and distributional preferences, by which we mean individuals’ opinions about who should be responsible for climate change prevention and whether the share of climate change impacts borne by the poor is a cause for concern. We use 1,770 responses to an online stated preference survey. The domestic costs in our survey’s policy choice scenarios are expressed as a set of randomized shares across four different payment vehicles, and the international cost shares are randomized across four groups of countries. We also elicit respondents’ perceptions of the likely regressivity of climate change impacts under a policy of business-as-usual. WTP is higher when larger cost shares are borne by parties deemed to bear a greater responsibility for mitigation, and when respondents believe (and care) that the impacts of climate change may be borne disproportionately by the world’s poor. That WTP for an environmental policy depends on the distributional consequences of the policy is an unsettling result: efficiency assessments are typically assumed to be separate from equity considerations in most benefit-cost analyses.     

Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed

Monetary policy in the US is characterized by a substantial degree of inertia. While in principle this may well be the outcome of an optimizing central bank behaviour, the ability of any derived policy rule to match the data relies on so large weights for interest rate smoothing into policy makers' preferences as to be theoretically flawed. In this paper we investigate whether such a puzzle can be interpreted as resulting from the concern of monetary authorities for potential misspecifications of the macroeconomic dynamics. Accordingly, we propose a novel thick modelling approach that incorporates model uncertainty into the identification of central bank's preferences. The thick robust policy rule shows the kind of smoothness observed in the data without resorting to implausible values for the preference parameters.     

土地承包权流转方式及选择

本文对我国现有的转包、互换、出租、入股和抵押5种主要的土地承包权流转方式进行了比较分析,研究其影响因素和适用条件.总的来说,出租适用于供给方议价能力较差的情况,转包适用于收入水平较高的地区,互换则较适用于交易双方货币支付能力有限、原始承包地块分散的情况,入股适用于土地经营效率较高且遇到瓶颈的地区.抵押是土地承包权需求方融资的有效途径,抵押为杠杆经营提供了条件.     

环境风险规制政策选择及其对我国的启示

环境规制是控制全球环境问题的重要手段之一.文章从环境风险规制研究现状出发,通过对环境博弈主体的分析,探讨环境规制政策工具的选择,并在对我国环境规制现状分析的基础上,总结对我国环境风险规制的启示.