AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO THE MEASUREMENT OF POVERTY

This paper presents a method for specifying and measuring povertydefined as relative deprivation. We base our measure of an individual'spoverty on the distance between his/her consumption experiencerelative to the norm. Consumption experience is defined in termsof events and the modal frequency of an event in the communitydefines the norm. Aggregation over events is made to capturethe objective as well as subjective nature of deprivation. Ourmeasure is related to that proposed by Townsend and econometricestimation is carried out using the Townsend data. Income isfound to be neither the sole nor the most important indicatorof deprivation.     

TAKING THE PUZZLE OUT OF THE PURCHASING POWER PARITY PUZZLE: AN APPLICATION IN RESPECT OF SOUTH AFRICA

This paper discusses two versions of the purchasing power parity puzzle. It presents the results of nonlinearity and nonstationarity tests in respect of the real exchange rates of the rand. It is found that the rand real exchange rate behaviour tends to be nonlinear and stationary in a majority of cases in the sample. This suggests that for the majority of the currencies in the sample, the real exchange rates of the rand are mean‐reverting, implying that the purchasing power parity relation holds in a nonlinear manner.     

LONG MEMORY IN THE VOLATILITY OF AN EMERGING FIXED‐INCOME MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH AFRICA

This paper tests for long memory in volatility of fixed‐income returns; specifically, South Africa's local currency 10‐year government bond, given that the characterisation of stochastic long‐memory volatility is of interest and importance in portfolio and risk management. The long‐memory parameter is estimated using methods based on wavelets, which have gained prominence in recent years. Evidence of long memory in fixed‐income return volatility is conclusively demonstrated across a variety of volatility measures and wavelet forms. This finding suggests a pattern of time dependence, which may potentially be exploited to generate improved volatility forecasting performance especially over long horizons. This paper further extends the extant literature by comparing the predictive power of long‐memory forecasts with those obtained from a standard (short‐memory) generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process. The results of this exercise suggest that the information content of long‐memory models does not lead to improved forecast accuracy. The GARCH(1,1) model is shown to provide the best forecasts across most horizons (i.e. daily, weekly and monthly). Forecast performance is further revealed to be sensitive to the choice of volatility proxy used. Finally, the derived volatility forecasts are generally very close, and in some cases, almost indistinguishable.     

CAPITAL STRUCTURES IN EMERGING STOCK MARKETS: THE CASE OF HUNGARY

This paper studies developments in the Hungarian capital markets during 1992–95 and investigates the determinants of the capital structures of companies listed on the Budapest Stock Exchange. Hungarian companies had very low leverage ratios. Empirical findings indicate that the negative relationship between leverage and proportion of tangible assets was primarily caused by the lack of long‐term debt financing. The relationship between leverage and the size of the company provides some indication of the importance of trade credits for the companies. The more profitable companies had less debt than less profitable ones. This is attributed to the firms’financial incentives aggravated by the segmentation of Hungarian credit markets and credit rationing within the financial environment. Manufacturing firms and firms with the state among their major shareholders enjoyed higher levels of debt financing relative to other companies.     

GLOBALISATION, FACTOR PRICES, AND POVERTY IN COLONIAL INDIA

Analytical accounts of South Asian economic history often suggest that the principal effects of nineteenth century globalisation on the region were deindustrialisation and agrarian expansion, and that deindustrialisation contributed to an increase in poverty despite agricultural growth. Available wage datasets show that artisans did relatively well and rural workers relatively worse in the period in question, suggesting that poverty did increase but deindustrialisation was an unlikely cause. I discuss the wage statistics to show this, and propose that, in order to complete the globalisation story, we need to consider three local factors: limits to deindustrialisation, limits to labour mobility, and limits to agrarian expansion.     

CURRENCY CRISES IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE CASE OF POST‐LIBERALIZATION TURKEY

This article investigates the determinants of currency crises in Turkey. It analyzes the two major currency crises of 1994 and 2000–2001 in the light of the existing theoretical models. The present study uses logit, probit, and limited dependent models to explain the currency crises in the post–capital account liberalization era. The results obtained from the three approaches are generally consistent and the coefficients obtained for the explanatory variables generally have the same sign. The findings suggest that the currency crises in Turkey are associated with global liquidity conditions, fiscal imbalances, capital outflows, and banking sector weaknesses.     

FACTORS EXPLAINING THE ACADEMIC SUCCESS OF SECOND‐YEAR ECONOMICS STUDENTS: AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS

Factors influencing the academic success of first‐year economics students have been intensely researched. Lecture and tutorial attendance, age, gender, as well as matriculation results have been identified as significant in explaining academic performance. The academic success of senior students, however, has received less attention in South Africa. This paper presents the findings of an investigation into the academic performance of second‐year economics students at Stellenbosch University. Using a Heckman two‐step model, the study analyses whether the factors explaining first‐year academic success are applicable in the second year or if other factors are relevant. The results suggest that most matriculation subjects become statistically insignificant for second‐year students, whereas lecture and tutorial attendance remain important contributors to academic success. Furthermore, academic performance in the first year is an important determinant of success in the second year.     

创意产业崛起的新锐

近年来,各地的文化创意产业发展可谓如火如荼,许多成功的落地项目昭示出这一产业所能带来的巨大成果。这个抽象的概念,越来越以具象化的面孔为人们所津津乐道。对于济南来说,亦如斯。创意产业大师的选择前不久,创意产业的先锋贾斯汀.欧康纳在济南的齐鲁文化创意基地成立了其个人研究中心。此前,这位创意产业大师曾在英国伦敦、曼彻斯特、利兹,韩国首尔等全球7个城市成立了相关研究中心。这次他在济南设立的研究中心是在中国内地继青岛之后的第二家。     

STATE REFORMATION AND THE FORMATION OF A NEWLY EMERGING WELFARE STATE IN TAIWAN

In postwar Taiwan, the legitimacy of the Kuomintang (KMT) regime had depended on the cold war structure and the civil war with the Communist Party. As the KMT regime penetrated Taiwanese society, it exercised tight control over the society through the medium of the strong party organization. However, in the process of democratization that started in the 1980s, the KMT's authoritarian political rule began to crumble, forcing the government to respond to people's demands in order to survive. The reform and improvement of the social security system in Taiwan were brought about against this backdrop of state reformation.     

THE SHORT-TERM POVERTY IMPACT OF SMALL-SCALE,COLLATERAL-FREE MICROCREDIT IN INDONESIA: A MATCHING ESTIMATOR APPROACH

Indonesian microfinance is primarily operated by for-profit commercial banks, characterized by large-scale loans that require collateral. In 2003, the largest nongovernmental organization in the country introduced much smaller-scale loans without a collateral requirement. This scheme is commercialized but potentially more suited to the credit demands of the poor. Applying propensity score matching with the difference-in-difference method, this paper examines whether the emerging microcredit scheme has been successful in targeting and improving the welfare of the poor in the one year following loan disbursement. The results show that although collateral ownership is not an important determinant of participation, relatively wealthier families gain access to microcredit. The impact of microcredit on various household outcomes is generally statistically insignificant, except for sales of nonfarm enterprises for the nonpoor and schooling expenditures for the poor. This implies that the microcredit scheme under study might not have an immediate impact on poverty alleviation.